Why So Little Knowledge?

Transcription

1 Public Opinion Knowledge about Environmental Issues Public s Limited Political Knowledge The Democrats held majority in the U.S. House 76 No weapons mass destruction ever found in Iraq 74 T he U.S. has a t rad e d ef icit The name their state s governor Republican Party more conservative than Democratic Global warming has already started 8 6 Know about Kyoto Treaty to limit greenhouse gases Nancy Peolosi is Speaker the U.S. House Reps 49 2 D ick C heney was V ice Presid ent o f t he U nit ed St at es U.S. Sup. Ct. Chief Justice John Roberts is conservative V ladimir Putin was president Russia T he f ed eral minimum wag e is $7.2 an ho ur Sunni is the other major Islamic branch besides Shia Harry R eid is D emocrat ic M ajorit y Leader U.S. Senat e Knowledge Environmental Issues How much do oil spills threaten human life Does contact with raw oil cause cancer How ten are there major oil spills from platforms How many years until world oil runs out What portion U.S. oil is imported Is fshore oil drilling causing fish populations to decline Safer to use oil tankers or pipelines Data from Field Polls, 2, California sample; E. Smith, Energy, the Environment, and Public Opinion Percent correct 8 Why So Little Knowledge? The public s knowledge is limited People don t learn it in school or from the media People don t pay attention They have other hobbies, interests People see little direct connection between politics & their lives People rarely use their knowledge They learn from political leaders Walter Kohn Scientific Literacy Campaigns? Some argue that we should push scientific literacy If people understand science, they will agree with us e.g., Proposed sustainability GE requirement e.g., Ranney and Clark, Climate Change and Conceptual Change. (week ) Others argue scientific literacy will fail Culture & values trump knowledge See Dorothy Howell, Scientific Literacy and Environmental Policy (992); Matthew Nisbett & Robert Goidel, Understanding citizen perceptions science controversy. Public Understanding Science 6 (7):42-4. Do Literacy Campaigns Work? This is an open question in science Some say yes; some say no Reconsider Ranney & Clark They say we need to explain the real science Not have scientists tell people, Trust us, global warming is real Samples: San Diego adults; students; Mturk Can we generalize? Can this work on a mass-public scale? What happens when Conservative leaders deny it?

2 Do Literacy Campaigns Work? Psychologists find that pure information campaigns generally don t work Tell people that we are in a drought & they use more water than they should: no change Add praise or criticism Add norms Encourage people who are doing well Do Literacy Campaigns Work? Climate change literacy efforts have failed Tobacco campaign worked (mostly) But coupled with tobacco taxes Wear seat belt/bike helmet worked But coupled with laws and fines Vaccines mostly work, but numbers are going down Receive-Accept-Sample Model Opinion Change The greater a person s cognitive engagement with a problem, the more likely he/she is to receive political messages about it People tend to accept arguments that are consistent with their political predispositons RAS Model: Expertise-Interaction Effect As people learn more about their side s argument, they become more polarized in their views As expertise increases, people move to extremes See John Zaller, The Origins and Nature Mass Opinion (992) They tend to reject arguments that are inconsistent with their predispositions ) As Political Knowledge Increases, a Person s Hearing a PR Message Increases 2) As Political Knowledge Increases, a Person s Believing a Message Increases If the message agrees with his/her Predispositions Reception Agreement 2

3 Persuasion ) As Political Knowledge Increases, a Person s Believing a Message Decreases If the message disagrees with his/her Predispositions 4) As Political Knowledge Increases, the pattern acceptance or rejection depends on predispositions The effects a global-warming-is-real message: ` Eenviron En Lib. Agreement Agreement Con. People with moderate knowledge are easiest to persuade Model: Prob (Change) = Prob (Reception) x Prob (Acceptance Reception) Level Awareness Middle Prob (Reception)...9 Prob (Accept Reception).9.. Change (Reception x Acceptance) Awareness Broad-cast Sources Information Television Who Attends Public Hearings? General Newspapers Mass mail Narrow Newspapers Web sites Public Hearings Narrow-cast Government Reports

4 percent support for oil drilling Real price per gallon Who Attends Public Hearings? Committed, well-informed activists How much persuasion occurs? Little or none How representative is the audience? Not representative People at the extremes Science Literacy Campaigns? Many environmentalists advocate them Natural scientists favor them strongly Will they work? Mixed evidence Ranney & Clark would say we need to change what we are telling people We don t know Economic vs. Social Issues Economic issues: distribution wealth Taxes, welfare, Medicare Many government regulations business Correlates with: Self-interest (income, costs,... Social issues: Morals & religious values Civil rights, women s equality, gay rights Tolerance Correlates with: Education & Age Percent extremely dangerous Environmentalism as an Economic Issue Industrial Air Pollution Extremely Dangerous by Income $-, $-, $-, $-4, $4-, $-6, $6-7, $7,+ Data from NORC General Social Survey, U.S. sample Environmentalism as an Economic Issue Figure.. California Opinion on Offshore Oil Development and the Price Gas, $. $. 6 Environmentalism as a Social Issue Opposition to Oil Drilling in National Forests by Education 6 4 $ $2. 42 Sources: Price gas from the U.S. Energy Information Administration; Survey data from a series Field Polls California adults. Figure from Jessica Feezell et al., The Politics Energy Crises $. $. $. Percent oppose drilling 4 $. Offshore Oil Price Gas H.S. Grad or less Some College College Grad Post-Grad Data from Field Poll, California sample 4

5 8 Environmentalism as a Social Issue Support for More Environmental Spending by Age Age & Trends over Time: What does the Future Bring? Percent saying "spending too little" Life cycle model People change as they age Generational model Cohorts are socialized differently Period effects Everyone responds to current events See Eric Smith, Energy, the Environment, and Public Opinion, chap Age Data from NORC General Social Survey, U.S. sample Political Orientations: Party Identification Support for Oil Drilling by Party Identification,. Generally speaking, do you usually think yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or what? [If the respondent answers Democrat or Republican ]: Would you call yourself a strong Democrat [Republican] or a not-so-strong Democrat [Republican]? [If the respondent answers Independent ]:. Do you think yourself as closer to the Republican Party or the Democratic Party? Percent support oil drilling 4 Str Dem Wk Dem Ind Dem Ind Ind Rep Wk Rep Str Rep 7 6 Political Orientations: Ideology Support for Oil Drilling by Ideology,. Egalitarianism The belief that all people should have equal social and political rights The belief that wealth should be distributed more equally than it is now Individualism Percent support 4 The belief that people should rely on themselves, not on the community or government The belief that the gov't should leave citizens alone as much as possible Str Lib Lib Wk Lib Mod Wk Con Con Str Con

6 Egalitarianism Questions. The world would be a more peaceful place if its wealth were divided more equally among nations. 2. We need to dramatically reduce inequalities between the rich and the poor, whites and people color, and men and women.. What our country needs is a fairness revolution to make the distribution goods more equal. Individualism Questions 4. Competitive markets are almost always the best way to supply people with the things they need.. Society would be better f if there were much less government regulation business. 6. People who are successful in business have a right to enjoy their wealth as they see fit. percent support Support for Nuclear Power by Egalitarianism () (high) Egalitarianism Support for Nuclear Power and Individualism Figure. Support for Oil Drilling by Party Identification, percent support 2 Percent support oil drilling 6 4 () () Individualism Str Dem Wk Dem Ind Dem Ind Ind Rep Wk Rep Str Rep Figure 4. Support for Oil Drilling by Ideology, 998 and. Environmental Voting 6 Conventional wisdom: No environmental voting Percent support 4 The economy, wars, scandals, etc. are seen as driving voting choices Environmental advocates seen as having little influence on vote choices Str Lib Lib Wk Lib Mod Wk Con Con Str Con 998 Deborah Guber, The Grassroots a Green Revolution 6

7 Environmental Voting for President Issue voting tests (American Voter). Have opinion on issue 2. Know where both candidates stand on issue. See a difference between candidates 4. Place Democrat to left Republican Guber finds only small influence environmental views Most Important Problem: NBC News/Wall Street Journal, May 6 (closed) Jobs, economic growth National security, terrorism Deficit, government spending Health care Climate change Immigration Religious, moral values Other (vol.) All equally (vol.) Unsure "Let me list some issues that have been proposed for the federal government to address. Please tell me which ONE OR TWO these items you think should be the top priority for the federal government: Job creation and economic growth. National security and terrorism. The deficit and government spending. Health care. Climate change. Immigration. Religious and moral values." Options rotated Most Important Problem: CBS News, April 6 (open) The economy, jobs 9 Terrorism, Islamic extremism, ISIS 7 Environmental Voting for President Immigration, illegal immigrants Racism, race relations Education, school loans Health care, health insurance 4 Recent academic studies do find support for environmental issues influencing votes Studies using logit equations (along with party id, etc.) show that environmental attitudes affects votes Poverty, homelessness Budget, national debt Income gap, plight middle class Other (vol.) 4 Davis & Wurth find that in the presidential elections, environmental opinions ranked from most influential (in 996) to th out ten issues Unsure/No answer "What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?" Open-ended Frank Davis and Albert Wurth, "Voting Preferences and the Environment in the American Electorate" Society & Natural Resources 6 (): Frank Davis, Albert H. Wurth, Jr., and John C. Lazarus, "The Green Vote in Presidential Elections: Past Performance and Future Promise." Social Science Journal, 4 (8):