Wilton Park Conference WP 919 PAKISTAN: SOURCES OF STABILITY AND INSTABILITY. Monday 31 March Friday 4 April 2008

Transcription

1 Wilton Park Conference WP 919 PAKISTAN: SOURCES OF STABILITY AND INSTABILITY Monday 31 March Friday 4 April 2008 With support from the UK s Global Conflict Prevention Pool, a joined-up government approach to preventing conflict Summary Pakistan faces major challenges including: tackling terrorist acts, increased militancy and internal violence, especially in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA); strengthening democratic governance at federal, provincial and local levels, including through devolution of political and economic powers; reforming political parties to provide for accountability and transparency to the electorate; investing in human capital, especially in education for the twenty-first century, to enable economic development and countering radicalisation; and ensuring government, not military, control of counter-terrorism and foreign policy, and obtaining popular support for cooperation with the United States and Afghanistan in countering militancy, through policies which are seen to reflect Pakistan s national security interests. Introduction 1. The transfer of power underway in Pakistan following the February 2008 elections, seen as a repudiation of President Pervez Musharraf, is the result of a sustained struggle between the military and various segments of civil society. It was not achieved by the efforts of the political parties opposed to military rule, whose role was essentially a supporting one. The political parties now in government will need to earn respect through prompt action on a number of key challenges, including measures to address the deteriorating economic situation. There is also a need to plan long-term for strengthening democratic governance, rule of law and social development. Page 1 of 11

2 Strengthening weak democratic institutions 2. There are several areas which need to be addressed before the transition to civilian rule will be seen as entirely credible. Creating confidence in the parliamentary system of government is crucial. Firstly, the Prime Minister should have full executive authority from parliament, rather than appear to be answerable to the heads of political parties who are not assembly members. Parliament s decisionmaking capacity needs to be strengthened. Some suggest the Senate s powers be increased, and all senators should be directly elected. Parliamentary committees, including a committee dealing with national security, need to be able to scrutinise government actions and exercise accountability over spending. There needs to be an emphasis on parliamentary ethics. Members of the parliament, and parliamentary staff, may need training in exercising their proper role. Parliament also needs to be adequately staffed with professional officers. 3. There is near unanimity that political parties need to be reformed so they are no longer fiefdoms dominated by powerful political families. Political parties should hold internal elections, undertake open financial accounting, regularly update their platforms on the basis of consultation, and initiate debate and dialogue within their structures to encourage a culture of dissent. They should establish mechanisms for research, analysis and accountability. Political parties could arguably be governed by a code of conduct overseen by a fully autonomous Election Commission. 4. Decentralisation of both political and economic powers from the federal government to provincial levels, and to the institutions of local government, is necessary to provide greater accountability. Pakistan is too large a country to be governed from the centre. Provincial authority has been eroded, and needs to be reasserted. At the local level, nazims (district officials) should be directly rather than indirectly elected, and on a political party basis. Some suggest the police could be made accountable to them. Others propose reinstituting the magistracy, abolished under the 2004 local government reform, to ensure inter alia police accountability. The system of magistrates, whose job was to enforce the regulatory and legal authority of the province, is seen by many as pivotal in controlling crime, law and order and the healthy functioning of society. Metropolitan police forces could be Page 2 of 11

3 established for large cities, and made responsible to the urban rather than provincial authorities, perhaps starting on a pilot or experimental basis. Districts and cities should be able to raise their own finance, within prescribed limits. Greater powers to local government should help reduce ethnic tensions, as well as improve the delivery of services. Countering insurgency or internal violence and promoting deradicalisation 5. Attacks by violent extremists in Pakistan have risen dramatically from 19 between 2002 and 2006 to 60 attacks in 2007 alone. The majority of these attacks were launched from the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) (see paragraph 11 below), territory bordering Afghanistan which is both under-governed and underdeveloped. Some believe there has been a major regrouping of militants in FATA over the last two years which has created a loose yet cohesive network of facilitators which extends throughout the country. 6. An effective and professional army is needed to counter insurgency, but military force alone will not succeed. A military solution has had limited effect to-date, and may even have exacerbated the problem. A combination of consistent military and political efforts is necessary. This will require mechanisms for building confidence between the army and civilian government; there has to be shared information and cooperation. Conservative elements in Pakistan s army, which have supported jihadis in Kashmir and Afghanistan, must be brought on board. Pakistan needs to hold a national debate, including in parliament, on how to tackle violent extremism based on religious ideology. Some Pakistanis blame the US-led counterinsurgency campaign along the border with Afghanistan for the surge of attacks on civilian and military targets in Pakistan; the terrorists are thus perceived as fellow citizens with a legitimate cause. This virulent anti-american sentiment often informs political debate and distorts views of Pakistan s national self-interest. US airstrikes on Al Qaeda and Taliban add further fuel to the fire; many Pakistanis react angrily to the breaches in sovereignty, and are understandably disturbed by the loss of innocent life in some of these military actions. Parliament and the media have a responsibility to explain how combating terrorism is in Pakistan s own interest. There should be vocal and sustained civil society support to delegitimise suicide attacks and change mindsets. Page 3 of 11

4 7. The new government will inevitably be more responsive to popular sentiment, and the need to de-link countering internal violence from what is viewed as the pursuit of US interests. It will attempt a comprehensive approach, in which dialogue with militants will play a key role. It is unclear with whom this dialogue will be, and what form it will take. Peace agreements between the government and tribesmen could be part of a wider disengagement process from terrorism. The authorities also need to jam illegal FM radio stations broadcasting incitement to violence and hatred, and promote their own radio stations to propagate a true spirit of Islam. 8. There is also a need for Pakistan to cooperate with Afghanistan, which may now occur with new personalities governing Pakistan. Many believe the US should show greater sensitivity in its relations with Pakistan, which is not yet apparent. Pakistan, Afghanistan and the US all have an interest in minimising violence, and need to pursue this as a common cause. There should be no unilateral action. 9. A strategy for disengagement from terrorism must also operate at an individual level. The destitution among male youth in the tribal belt is exploited by radical clerics who present an easy solution martyrdom. Some are easily indoctrinated through a sense of childlike idealism and commitment to religion without the ability to make rational and informed choices. Teenage recruits should be the main target group for deradicalisation, through a policy of re-education of the jihadi mindset. There is a need to challenge the question of ideology and credibly re-evaluate Salafijihadi ideology. A formal programme to deradicalise or rehabilitate jihadis in detention is needed, involving dialogue with clerics the jihadis will respect, and with full support of the army and law enforcement agencies. Families of detainees should also be engaged. Providing skills training and assisting with employment should form a key element. 10. Although politicians recognise that education is the long-term key to countering radicalisation, in Pakistan only 2.3% of Gross Domestic Product is spent on this. It is not surprising, therefore, that for the poorest Pakistanis, madrassas fill the void created by a deficient public sector schooling system. While only a small number of madrassas may be used to indoctrinate young men towards violent extremism, madrassa teachers are trained to teach religion, not the skills needed for the twenty- Page 4 of 11

5 first century. Pakistan must be encouraged to spend much more on education; the donor community should ensure that substantial aid is earmarked for this. The challenge of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) 11. Sixty per cent of FATA s population live below the national poverty line, and there is a 17% literacy rate (three per cent for women). Seen by some as a structural anomaly of the state, the need to bring political reform and economic and social development to the area has become urgent. Although some argue an answer lies in restoring the authority of the political agent, FATA s traditional system of government, others believe there is a need for bold government measures to integrate FATA into the mainstream of Pakistan rather than isolating it. These would include: merger of FATA into the North West Frontier Province (NWFP), although on the basis of consultation with the population which could prove difficult with the present turbulence; amendment or withdrawal of the Frontier Crimes Regulation so as to provide for fundamental rights such as judicial appeal and review; and extension of the Political Parties Act to FATA. The process of the Pakistan-Afghan jirga needs to be institutionalised. The tribal belt should be treated as a contiguous area for development: both sides of the border should be encouraged to trade and create small enterprise industry. The army should be withdrawn and capacity built instead in the Frontier Corps. Major international assistance should be provided to support social and economic development. A strong advocacy programme needs to be launched in FATA and throughout Pakistan to explain why these reform measures are necessary for the stability of the whole country. The role of the army 12. Since independence Pakistan s military has been its strongest institution. Some believe there is only a tactical retreat by the army at present; its political, economic and social penetration of society will continue. Yet even small steps of withdrawal are welcome. Others contend the army wishes to redefine its role and extricate itself from the turmoil of politics. 13. In the long-term, how the army relates to other elements of the body politic will be crucial to Pakistan s future stability, and the effectiveness of the government. Will the army share information with the government, especially concerning what is Page 5 of 11

6 happening in the FATA, and be prepared to synchronise its action with the policies of the new government? Will it become more transparent, so that parliament will be able to scrutinise the defence budget? How can there be political and legal control over the intelligence agencies, and a reduction in their role? To bring such change will need strong civil society action, from the judiciary, media and parliament. Who owns national security policy, including the war on terror and policy towards India, will have a huge bearing on institutional stability. Some suggest there should ideally be a National Security Council established, under the Prime Minister, as in India; yet such a body needs highly professional officials to supply it with the necessary information and there are doubts whether this can be done. Can the army scale back? There are institutional and personal elements involved in reducing military privilege. Some suggest there should be more emphasis in army training on the role of the army in upholding the Constitution, rather than engendering a mindset which underlines military superiority. Addressing economic disparities 14. Although 2002 to 2006 has been a period of high growth of almost 7% per cent per annum, this did not translate into significant reduction of poverty; there was, in fact, a visible deterioration in inter-personal and inter-regional distribution of income. The government failed to foresee the demand high growth would have on energy. The current energy shortages impact on economic development, affecting especially small operators unable to invest in private electricity generators. Growth is now slowing, while inflation registered some 11% for the year to January High prices for basic food items (rice, flour and milk) and fuel currently prevail. The previous government used subsidies to control prices, especially for oil, but this is a short-term, expensive solution. Unemployment stands at over 7%. Trade deficits are growing. Feudal control of the economy in the countryside continues. Institutional capacity remains underdeveloped, hindering improvement in basic services. 15. The impact of the neglect to reform Pakistan s economic institutions has been disguised to large extent by the external aid it has received. Many are agreed, however, that the government is too large, unfocused and non-inclusive to drive sustained economic growth and development. There is too much intervention where it is not necessary, leading to capacity being overstretched. The National Finance Page 6 of 11

7 Commission, which decides on dispersal of finances to the provinces, holds closed proceedings and often fails to reach clear decisions. Accountability mechanisms are weak or non-existent. This leads to regional disparities and a constant battle for a larger share of resources among provinces. There has been no adequate and sustained investment in human capital. Political leadership varies in effectiveness. Punjab, for example, is generally more economically advanced than Sindh since leadership, education, middle class and non-governmental organisations are stronger. It is more homogenous than Sindh, making decision-making less polarised. International donors are not often involved in projects in Sindh as they are accountable to their own tax-payers, and want to support success. Donors should be more sensitive to income distribution and regional disparities in the projects they support. Political parties manifestoes are thin on economic policies, even though those now in government need to address economic issues urgently. Civil society: drivers of change? 16. Civil society in Pakistan is now much stronger than it was during the last period of civilian rule in the 1990s. The role played by the lawyers movement during 2007 is testament to this. If the restoration of the independence of the judiciary is not promptly and adequately addressed, there will likely be further protest. Can civil society make a difference, however, in addressing issues like corruption? Media coverage generally is seen to be much improved in recent years, though editorial control is often exercised by powerful personalities, and ownership of media remains within small circles. The media is also unregulated, and journalists rail against selfregulation, which some see as the answer. Another solution may be the establishment of a Press Council, as in the UK. More investigative journalism is needed, to uncover corruption in political life. Non-governmental organisations (NGOs) should also exert scrutiny, as well as parliamentary committees. Political will is sometimes at issue. Freedom of information can also be an impediment, and how to access information. Civil society should press to raise the profile of human and women s rights. In recent years, the government has used the security climate and international pressure for action against terrorists to eclipse human rights. It is shortsighted of the international community to ignore this. There has to be greater access to justice, and the police and law-enforcement personnel should be more accountable. Page 7 of 11

8 How will foreign policy evolve? 17. The political transition in Pakistan over the past year has brought a sense of discomfort to the US, India and China. All would prefer a continuation or, preferably, evolution of the policies pursued under the Musharraf administration. For the US, there is a short-term potential for disruption of operations; medium term the possibility of renegotiation of terms of cooperation; and, long-term, latent difference of view on the threat of militancy. There is a trust deficit between the US and Pakistan, including in the Pakistan army. The new government has to develop policies which the public will support, and which serve Pakistan s own interests. India perhaps has less confidence in Pakistan s civilian politicians, and preferred to do business with Musharraf, but a drive for peace with India may be led by Punjabi businessmen. The economic opportunities and trade would be vast. Although China has been concerned about the security of companies operating in Pakistan, it is felt the two countries will remain close. Pakistan should, however, seek greater Chinese investment and economic assistance rather than continue the military to military aid of the past. Pakistan s relations with Afghanistan depend very considerably on how the militancy in the tribal belt is handled, and how the relationship between the army and the government will develop. What role for the international donor community? 18. While many are agreed that substantial assistance for social and economic development needs to be directed to the border areas of Pakistan, FATA in particular, this should not be to the neglect of support elsewhere, for example advancing the situation of women in rural Punjab. With local elections due in 2009, attention should be given to strengthening the electoral process, and the Electoral Commission. The Pakistani government needs to be encouraged to give greater resources to, and spend more effectively on, all levels of education and healthcare. Donor assistance should be directed towards this end. 19. Foreign aid requires focus and coordination. While budgetary support is needed, particularly for debt servicing, it is not enough in itself. Aid focused on projects is useful, but needs to be complemented by developing work processes and structures of involvement. Aid should be oriented towards outputs, such as health Page 8 of 11

9 and education; yet there should be engagement of citizens, though strengthening policy networks and policy communities that can interact with the state. Multistakeholder platforms, backed by strong technical know-how, information and strong communications can lead to empowerment. Looking ahead 20. Pakistan has deep-seated problems which need long-term policy approaches. While the military has dominated Pakistan s political development, not all obstacles to democratic development can be laid at the army s door. Illiteracy, feudal structures, the dynastic tradition, the lack of rule of law, and the need to develop Pakistan s economy successfully all feed into the cycle of authoritarian rule, instability and underdevelopment. The temptation for most governments is to look to the electoral cycle. A new government will want to show quick wins. Policies for addressing Pakistan s problems should, however, be formulated in the sort of time frame the international community set for achieving the Millenium Development Goals. Isobelle Jaques Programme Director May 2008 Wilton Park Reports are brief summaries of the main points and conclusions of a conference. The reports reflect rapporteurs personal interpretations of the proceedings as such they do not constitute any institutional policy of Wilton Park nor do they necessarily represent the views of rapporteurs. Page 9 of 11

10 (Annex I) POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 1. Policies concerning Pakistan need to be formulated in a long-term framework. Pakistan s problems are deep-seated and need sustained attention. Federal and provincial governments, as well as the international community, should recognise this in policy planning. 2. Mechanisms need to be established for promoting confidence and sharing information between the military and the government, and the military and parliament. This is particularly important for tackling violent extremism. The international community should give support to military-civilian dialogue. 3. Pakistan should promote a national debate on how to tackle violent extremism and militancy based on religious ideology, to include the parliament, media and civil society. 4. Violent extremism cannot be tackled by military force alone. There must be a comprehensive strategy to promote disengagement from terrorism, at a collective and individual level. This will include dialogue with militants, and deradicalisation or rehabilitation programmes for jihadis. 5. Pakistan is too large a country to be governed from the centre. Devolution of both political and economic power is needed, provincial autonomy should be restored and local government strengthened, with nazims directly elected, and local government able to raise revenue. The system of the magistracy should be reinstated. 6. Parliament s decision-making capacity needs to be strengthened. Parliamentary committees should scrutinise effectively government policies, including the defence budget. The international community could provide assistance and training as necessary. 7. Land reform must be tackled otherwise there will be no lasting improvement in income distribution and little independent voting in the rural areas. 8. There is an urgency to address political reform and socio-economic development in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Measures could include: withdrawal of the army and building the capacity of the Frontier Corps; integrating FATA into the provincial structure of North West Frontier Province; extending the Political Parties Act to FATA; withdrawing or amending the Frontier Crimes Regulation to provide for fundamental rights such as judicial appeal; and institutionalising the Pak-Afghan jirga. Such measures should not be undertaken without consultation with local inhabitants. Page 10 of 11

11 9. Political parties should be reformed. This would include holding internal elections, undertaking open financial accounting and regularly updating their platforms on the basis of consultation. Political parties could be governed by a code of conduct overseen by a fully autonomous Election Commission. 10. Pakistan needs to reform its economic institutions, such as the National Finance Commission, so that these become transparent and accountable. 11. The government needs to invest in human capital, in health and particularly in education. The international community should direct its assistance to these sectors and exercise more accountability over assistance than there has been previously. There should be greater donor coordination. 12. Pakistan s foreign policy should be established on the basis of Pakistan s national interests. The government should ensure fuller control of foreign policy. Pakistan, Afghanistan and the United States all have an interest in minimising internal violence and should pursue this as a common cause. Page 11 of 11