The flip-flop approach to terrorism

Transcription

1 The flip-flop approach to terrorism An Analysis of the Responses of Successive Nigerian Governments to the ongoing Insurgency of Boko Haram CRISIS AND SECURITY MANAGEMENT MASTER S THESIS AUTHOR BASTIAAN SMEETS STUDENT NUMBER SUPERVISOR: SECOND READER: PROF. A.P. SCHMID PROF. DR. E. BAKKER DATE 11 AUGUST 2016

2 ABSTRACT Governments may deal with terrorist organizations in numerous ways, depending on numerous circumstances. The options available to governments range from legal reforms to intelligence gathering and from negotiations with terrorists to violent repression. This thesis uses qualitative research methods in order to describe which of these options have been pursued by successive Nigerian governments, in order to deal with Boko Haram, Nigeria s most radical and violent Islamic sect. To date, the battle is still ongoing. Countless military operations had for a long time not yielded satisfying results. However, recent developments show significant gains due to the involvement of neighboring countries and foreign mercenaries. Other efforts, including the introduction of counterterrorism legislation, negotiations with representatives of the sect, and the consideration of an amnesty programme, have all failed to adequately address the issue of Boko Haram. In the meantime, the government appears to have mostly neglected underlying grievances in society, which in theory may fuel a terrorist campaign. Whether this is the case regarding Nigeria remains unclear, however the government should be aware of the possibility of newly emerging terrorist organizations after Boko Haram, when such grievances remain unaddressed. 1

3 Table of contents ABSTRACT... 1 LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS INTRODUCTION LITERATURE REVIEW THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK RESEARCH PROPOSITION Central research question Hypotheses RESEARCH DESIGN Objectives Type of Research Methods Justification Limitations CASE DESCRIPTION Brief political history of Nigeria Demographics Population Religion Ethnic groups Recent history of domestic conflict Conflict in the Niger Delta Maitatsine uprisings Religious militant movements in Nigeria Boko Haram Ansaru Maitatsine/Kala Kato Izala ANALYSIS Responses to underlying grievances Context Government responses Political responses Context Government responses

4 7.3 Legal responses Context Government responses Military responses Government responses Comprehensive response to Boko Haram a draft of Nigeria s National Counter-Terrorism Strategy CONCLUSION RECOMMENDATION DISCUSSION REFERENCES Appendix A Appendix B Map of Nigeria. Source: International Organization for Migration (2016). 3

5 LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS APC AQAP AQIM BH GTD IDP IMN INEC JTF ORO LGA MEND MNJTF NA NACTEST PDP START All Progressives Congress Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb Boko Haram Global Terrorism Database Internally Displaced People Islamic Movement in Nigeria Independent National Electoral Commission Joint Task Force Operation Restore Order Local Government Area Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta Multi-National Joint Task Force National Assembly National Counter-Terrorism Strategy People s Democratic Party National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism 4

6 1 INTRODUCTION The issue of how to handle militant religious movements in general and militant jihadist movements in particular, is one of great concern to several countries throughout the world, mainly in Africa and the Middle East. Such movements tend to challenge a country s government, or the state, one of its most valuable properties: the sole authority over a demarcated territory, in terms of legislative powers and monopoly of violence. Especially in countries that are inhabited by significant Muslim populations, militant jihadist movements try to gain power at the expense of governments, for the purpose of de-secularizing and Islamizing the country, for instance by means of enforcing a strict Islamic legal system or by prohibiting elements of modern, secular and Western lifestyle. It is primarily up to the government to deal with this challenge, to maintain its authority over a population and to not let jihadist movements achieve their objectives. The radical Islamic sect known as Boko Haram has plagued Nigeria since In 2015, Boko Haram surpassed so-called Islamic State (in Syria and Iraq) as the deadliest terrorist organization in the world (Global Terrorism Index 2015, p. 4). The sect is one of many concerns to the Nigerian government, which is also confronted with high unemployment rates, armed struggle in the Niger Delta, corruption, and many other issues. Is it possible for one country to cope with so many issues simultaneously? This thesis addresses just one, the Boko Haram insurgency, and will focus on how successive Nigerian governments have dealt with the issue. 5

7 2 LITERATURE REVIEW A systematic review conducted by Lum, Kennedy, & Sherley (2003) found that of all reviewed work on counterterrorism, four categories of counterterrorism strategies are discussed the most: preventative, detection-oriented, managerial, and response-oriented. Regarding preventative strategies, Crenshaw (1987) distinguishes two types of counterterrorism: instrumental and organizational. Instrumental counterterrorism aims at lowering the probability of a terrorist attack, by raising the costs of terrorism relative to alternative actions and/or increasing those other actions success rates. This type consists of both defence and deterrence policies, the former includes active (i.e. pre-emptive use of force to deny an actual attack) and passive (i.e. reduce probability of succesfull attack) measures, whereas the latter includes measures of denial (i.e. raise the costs of an attack) and retalitation. Organizational counterterrorism, contrary to the instrumental approach that focuses on the terrorists as rational individuals, focuses on efforts that cause terrorist organizations to decline, thus to lose strength. Such efforts are directed towards two different ways in which the organization declines: exit and voice. The former refers to terrorists leaving the organization, for example due to alternative pathways offered by the government, whereas the latter refers to provoking dissent inside the organization, which decreases the level of conformity. Authors who have written about counterterrorism do so in different ways. Frey (2004), for instance, divides responses to terrorism into two basic types: using the stick and using the carrot. The stick refers to coercive interventions, which mainly comes down to the deployment of military and police forces, after an attack has occurred. The main goal is to punish terrorists, by either killing or capturing them. He notes that this type of counterterrorism responses is most often undertaken throughout the world, although evidence shows that this approach is often unsuccessful and sometimes even counterproductive regarding the ultimate goal of defeating terrorism. Using the stick, or in other words the policy of deterrence or the reactive response, locks terrorists inside their organizations, without the opportunity to cease their terrorist activities by choosing alternatives other than terrorism. This approach causes both sides to lose; the government spends a lot of money to maintain their deterring activities, while the terrorists get either killed or captured. On the other side of the counterterrorism dichotomy as described by Frey, is using the carrot. Contrary to the stick, the carrot-approach is a more positive approach to terrorism. It aims at identifying newly emerging conflicts that possibly lead to terrorism, thus making it a 6

8 proactive response that is predominantly performed before an attack has occurred. Its main goal is to address the root causes of terrorism and focuses on long-term solutions rather than the short-term approach of military retribution. Dealing with those individuals that are already considered to be terrorists, instead of killing them, more favourable and non-violent alternatives are offered. They are given incentives to opt out of their terrorist organization. Contrary to the consequences that follow the approach of the stick, this type of government responses potentially results in both sides to benefit. The government doesn t rely entirely on costly military interventions, while the terrorists are given the opportunity to stay alive by refraining from terrorism. Terrorists withdrawing from a terrorist organization potentially undermines its cohesiveness, since the loss of members weakens its overall strength. Despite the potential benefits of positive sanctions such as giving terrorists incentives for withdrawing from their organization s activities, Frey notices that the majority of the literature on (counter)terrorism is devoted to the deterrence response, whereas less attention is paid to positive sanctions. Forest (2007) also roughly divides counterterrorism measures into two categories: hard power and soft power. Hard power refers to the use of military force and law enforcement, whereas soft power refers to efforts related to diplomacy, information, and intelligence. In order to be effective, a country s approach to terrorism and/or insurgencies should be a comprehensive one that combines different elements of both sides in a concerted fashion. While pursuing efforts related to both these sides, governments should also be responsive to underlying grievances in society, which requires long-term strategies and solutions. Emphasizing hard power or soft power to deal with a terrorist organization, while neglecting structural societal problems such as economic inequity, unemployment, a weak educational system, and internally displaced people, eventually decreases the possibility of effectively dealing with terorrism. Other authors choose to describe the variety of counterterrorism measures in a different fashion. Instead of the dichotomy as described by Forest and Frey, some argue for another categorization. For example, Jarvis (2009) argues that in the field of terrorism and counterterrorism studies, authors mainly recommend one of (or a combination of) three broadly defined approaches to terrorism: militarizing, criminalizing, and liberal. Which approach is advocated and preferred over another, depends on how the issue of terrorism is understood and framed. In the case of militarizing and criminalizing approaches, terrorism is understood as a technical problem that predominantly requires short-term solutions. On the other hand, liberal approaches consider terrorism as a symptom of underlying dynamics in society, to which long-term solutions should be offered. Militarizing approaches naturally rely 7

9 on the use of force, negotiations are considered to be fruitless. Criminalizing approaches move away from the military idea of war on terrorism and consider terrorism as a criminal issue, to which efforts such as intelligence-gathering are advocated. Authors who advocate liberal approaches, without entirely rejecting military interventions, favor efforts that are aimed at the extension of democratic and human rights for a country s population. Wilkinson (2011) also categorizes responses to terrorism, in particular those of liberal states, into three different aspects or dimensions: the use of politics and diplomacy, the use of both the law enforcement and the criminal justice systems, and the deployment of the military. The use of politics and diplomacy refers to, inter alia, so-called peace processes that require sufficient political will to develop and maintain a peaceful solution to a conflict situation. Both individual leaders and external mediators play a crucial role in these processes. They must be capable to deal with the complexity of peace processes, while efforts such as disarmament and demobilization of armed forces are to be pursued as well, in order to address security concerns that one or more participating parties may have. The use of the law enforcement and the criminal justice systems refers to what Wilkinson calls the hardline approach of the liberal state to deal with terrorism. The approach prescribes liberal states to avoid both over- and underreaction, since they both endanger a country s democratic values, and to always act within the rule of law, especially during states of emergency. Intelligence efforts are crucial in this approach to win against terrorists, though they should always be under close scrutiny of and accountable to the democratically elected government. Wilkinson concludes his description of this approach by warning against granting (too many) concessions to terrorists, since that might signal the government s weakness and support the capabilities of a terrorist campaign. Simultaneously, addressing underlying grievances in society may decrease support for the terrorist cause, it essentially diminishes whatever legitimacy terrorist claims have. The deployment of the military refers to the obvious approach in which the armed forces engage terrorists. Of greater importance is Wilkinson s assertion that this approach is often proven to have been counterproductive. He further argues that the three dimensions should not be regarded as mutually exclusive. Instead, carefully selected elements from all three dimensions should be combined in order to create a comprehensive approach to terrorism, one that is able to effectively deal with a variety of terrorist activities. Oyewole (2013) divides counterterrorism measures in a similar fashion, into three dominant categories: military-based, justice-based, and political-based. Military-based counterterrorism is based on the idea of a war on terrorism against terrorists who are 8

10 portrayed as nihilists, in which the military is in charge of confronting them, predominantly by the massive deployment of both covert and overt operations. Alternatively, justice-based counterterrorism views terrorism as a crime, to which legal responses are needed. Terrorists and their acts are criminalized, after which they are put through a country s legal system, which includes the detection, investigation, and prosecution of suspected individuals. Because (counter)terrorism is highly politicized, the third category as described by Oyewole comprises political-based counterterrorism measures, divided into hard politics and soft politics. The former relates to the two aforementioned categories and consists of capturing or killing terrorists, while strict counterterrorism laws and counterterrorism forces are put in place. The latter, on the contrary, refers to a softer and more diplomatic approach to terrorism. Efforts such as capacity building, encouragement of democratic values, economic development, and counter-radicalization policies are considered preferable to either military-based or justicebased measures. Instead of the dichotomous or tripartite categorizations that are described so far, yet another model that describes counterterrorism measures is proposed by Miller (2007). According to Miller, the traditional categorizations fail to adequately represent the variety of potential counterterrorism measures. He argues for the use of five categories, which lie along a continuum, ranging from doing nothing to violence. Firstly, doing nothing, refers to ignoring terrorism and refusing to apprehend terrorists. This category may be considered only theoretical, since in practice governments have to respond in some way to terrorist organizations that contest the government s authority and terrorize the population. Secondly, conciliation refers to negotiating with and making concessions to terrorists, which includes the promise of change in their favour and the release of prisoners. Thirdly, legal reform refers to the strengthening of government capacity to deal with terrorism, for example through the creation of counter-terrorism specific legislation. Fourthly, restriction refers to measures and policies that limit terrorist activities, through hardening targets and increasing expanding intelligence-gathering capabilities. Fifthly, violence refers to the government applying force in order to eliminate or capture suspected terrorists. 9

11 3 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK The thesis does not make use of a grand theory to analyse government responses. Instead, for the purpose of answering the central research question, the thesis builds on several categories of counterterrorism responses, which are derived from the literature review. This section defines the theoretical boundaries of the thesis by highlighting which elements of counterterrorism are included in the analysis of the case that is under study: the responses of successive Nigerian governments to Boko Haram. The literature review has given a concise, thus limited, overview of existing counterterrorism measures. It shows that the included authors choose to describe the variety of counterterrorism measures in their own fashion, by using different wordings, categorizations, and approaches. For the sake of oversight and feasibility, the theoretical framework of this thesis consists of categories that are somehow described by one or more authors, but then pieced together as simplified categories: (i) responses to underlying grievances, (ii) political responses, (iii) legal responses, and (iv) military responses. Each of these categories may, theoretically, consist of numerous responses. Responses to underlying grievances may include efforts to strengthen the economic positions of certain communities, efforts to adequately deal with internally displaced people, and efforts to combat the issue of (youth) unemployment. Political responses to terrorism may include negotiations and talks with terrorists, amnesty and political incorporation. Legal responses to terrorism may include the introduction of counterterrorism legislation and the strengthening of a country s law enforcement capacities. Military responses to terrorism obviously include the deployment of armed forces in order to fight terrorists on the battlefield, trying to kill or capture as many as possible. 10

12 4 RESEARCH PROPOSITION 4.1 Central research question The aim of this particular thesis, is to describe the campaign of successive Nigerian governments against Boko Haram. The central research question is therefore formulated: How have successive Nigerian governments dealt with Boko Haram between 2009 and 2016? 4.2 Hypotheses Since this thesis is based on a descriptive research, including hypotheses may not seem the most logical thing to do. However, two relevant issues related to the overall topic of government responses, might be interesting enough to discuss on the basis of a hypothesis. Including these two hypotheses doesn t exactly serve to answer the central research question of how successive Nigerian governments have dealt with Boko Haram, it rather offers interesting insights regarding perceived or observed consequences of the responses undertaken by Nigerian governments. Underlying grievances in society are often described as the root causes of terrorism. Feelings of injustice within society, for example when the government fails to respond to an attack on a religious community, economic disparities between different communities in the country, the issue of internally displaced people, a weak educational system; all and more of these potentially contribute to the persistence of terrorism. As Forest (2007) argues that in order to effectively deal with and ultimately defeat a terrorist organization, governments need to address issues that are not directly linked to the organization itself (2007, p. 102). Likewise, Wilkinson (2011) argues that addressing underlying grievances in society may decrease the terrorists ideological operating space, or, their water in which they swim (2011, p. 199). Thus, the first hypothesis is formulated: Hypothesis 1: The persistence of the Boko Haram sect is caused by Nigerian governments neglect for underlying grievances in society; this neglect decreases the effectiveness of the governments overall response to Boko Haram. 11

13 In 2009, Mahmud noticed that the Nigerian government s approach to what was then called the Nigerian Taliban now Boko Haram predominantly relied on the use of military force, engaging in acts of violence and performing harsh crackdowns (Mahmud, 2009, p. 121). However, for instance according to Forest (2012), for counterterrorism and counterinsurgency efforts to be effective, strategies should not only involve hard power (the threat and use of force, especially by the military), they should also incorporate soft power efforts including intelligence gathering and efforts aimed at limiting the potential resonance of terrorist ideologies in the ordinary people s perspectives and beliefs (2012, pp ). An overreliance on the military dimension of government responses to terrorism might even be counterproductive, as argued by Frey (2004) and Wilkinson (2011). In the end of July 2009, the Nigerian armed forces launched a large military operation against Boko Haram, especially against their headquarters in Maiduguri. Until around April and May 2010, this battle appeared to have resulted in the destruction of the sect. However, the developments since then prove the contrary; Boko Haram resurfaced stronger and more violent than ever before, it even exceeded so-called Islamic State regarding the number of fatalities. This development, especially when bearing in mind the presumed destruction of the sect in July 2009, raises questions about what happened in the period July 2009 to April/May This specific topic of interest combined with the notion regarding the overreliance on military force as being counterproductive, results in the second hypothesis: Hypothesis 2: The large and brutal military operations performed by the Nigerian armed forces, especially in Maiduguri, in July 2009 have been counterproductive; they contributed to Boko Haram resurfacing stronger and more violent than ever before in April/May

14 5 RESEARCH DESIGN 5.1 Objectives The primary objective of this research, is to find out how successive Nigerian governments have dealt with the Boko Haram challenge since it evolved into a wider insurgency in the period 2009 to The primary objective is achieved when a clear understanding of the prevalent government approaches to the Boko Haram issue is obtained Furthermore, the two secondary objectives are: (i) Firstly, after having analysed the Nigerian case, it would be satisfying to be able to offer a recommendation for peaceful co-existence for the country s (near) future; (ii) Secondly, in case effective government responses are observed, they might offer guidelines for other governments dealing with comparable religious militancy issues. Determining the achievement of these secondary objectives is somewhat more ambitious than determining whether or not a clear understanding of government responses is obtained. Firstly, due to the complex nature of the case and, secondly, the production of generalizable results is hampered by the type of research conducted, which will be discussed in the next section. 5.2 Type of Research This thesis is based on a descriptive research, which best fits a type of research that attempts to systematically describe government responses (Kumar, 2011, p. 9). Since the research focuses on a variety of aspects related to just one case, it is classified as a holistic single-n case study. The selection of just one case enables the researcher to take multiple relevant aspects regarding the phenomenon under study into account, instead of selecting a limited number of aspects pertaining to multiple cases. This enhances the understanding of the particular topic under study even when resources are relatively limited, which is the case when one has to rely mainly on secondary sources (Lijphart, 1971, p. 691). Furthermore, this type of research fits the researcher s desire to monitor a phenomenon over time, by repeatedly measuring the same phenomenon at various points in time. Thus, the intensive approach of a single-n case study enables this research to acquire in-depth knowledge concerning a particular phenomenon over a demarcated period of time (Swanborn, 2010, p. 2). 13

15 The theoretical framework has outlined which theoretical categories of counterterrorism measures are applied to the case of Nigeria s struggle with Boko Haram. Since the thesis is based on a descriptive research, the purpose of this thesis is to describe whether or which of these categories are observed in the particular case. Thus, the analysis includes sections that describe the observed measures, placed within their respective categories. Some categories of government responses are preceded by additional information about the case, in order to place the responses of that category in a relevant context. By following this design, this thesis aims to have offered a clear oversight of all relevant approaches, measures, and initiatives as undertaken by successive Nigerian governments between 2009 and Methods This thesis exclusively makes use of qualitative research methods. In order to answer the central research question, actual government responses have to be analysed. The theoretical framework outlines the categories of government responses that will be looked for in the case of Nigeria. The conclusion of the research then contains a clear understanding of the applied government responses. In order to strengthen the internal validity of the research, triangulation of methods is a profitable research strategy. By using multiple methods to acquire data from various kinds of data sources, rather than relying on just one method, more accurate and complete results can be expected (Swanborn, 2010, p. 160). Therefore, this thesis project makes use of this triangulation method; it contains the following: reviewing existing literature, content analysis, and two semi-structured interviews. Through these different approaches, both secondary and primary data are obtained. Firstly, a part of the research is devoted to the interpretation of secondary data sources such as encyclopaedias, academic articles, and books, written by scholars in the field of Nigeria, Boko Haram, counter-terrorism, religion, and the Sharia law system. In addition, several governmental and organizational reports are used as well, including the US Department of State Country Reports on Terrorism, International Religious Freedom Reports, Human Rights Watch reports, and International Crisis Group reports. Secondly, parts of the research are devoted to content analysis of primary data, such as the Nigerian Constitution, Nigeria s terrorismrelated legislative acts, speech acts by key government figures, and online newspaper articles from both the Nigerian and the international press. Thirdly, two semi-structured interviews will be conducted, producing primary data, in order to gather insights and opinions of experts 14

16 regarding the subject. The African Studies Centre in Leiden, a multidisciplinary academic knowledge institute solely devoted to the study of Africa, will be contacted and asked if two of their experts are willing to talk about the topic of this thesis. 5.4 Justification Terrorism is all but a new phenomenon; Rapoport (2004) distinguished four waves of terrorism of which the first anarchist wave started around The terror attacks that struck the United States on 11 September 2001 have dramatically increased the amount of attention devoted to the phenomenon within the fields of academics, politics, and society as a whole. However, despite this increased attention, some aspects of the phenomenon are still under researched. Counterterrorism policies are amongst these under researched topics and are in need of further research (Schmid, 2011, p. 76). Furthermore, a Campbell systematic review on counter-terrorism research found that the vast majority of all research are so-called thought pieces, theoretical discussions, or opinions. Only 1 per cent of the reviewed articles were case studies that offered in-depth analyses of a particular case. Besides, of all reviewed articles, just a small fraction dealt with a variety of responses to terrorism, or counterterrorism, whereas a significant larger amount was devoted to weapons of mass destruction (Lum, Kennedy, & Sherley, 2006, pp ). The scientific relevance of this thesis stems from the aforementioned shortcomings. This thesis aims to contribute to tackling these in two ways. Firstly, it deals with the under researched topic of counterterrorism and, secondly, it is a case study that provides a more indepth analysis of a particular topic than a thought piece would do. The societal relevance of this thesis stems from the fact that nowadays, terrorism, and thus also counterterrorism, is considered a highly topical issue. Especially in the immediate aftermath of terrorist attacks, members of society ranging from academics to politicians to the ordinary citizen engage in an open debate, asking themselves and others what should be done against terrorism. A substantial part of the answer to this question may lie in the analysis of government responses to terrorism. With the eventual goal of assessing the effectiveness of government responses, a description of what actually has been done appears to be a good starting point. This thesis does exactly that; it illustrates in which ways subsequent Nigerian governments have responded to Boko Haram. 5.5 Limitations 15

17 The first limitation that should be addressed logically stems from the chosen research type, which is the single-n case study. After having researched just one case, the produced results are unlikely to be generalizable to contexts other than the Nigerian case (Lijphart, 1971, p. 691). Another limitation stems from the case of Nigeria itself. Data obtained from Nigerian news websites are not always trustworthy, since reporters sometimes tend to write according to their own opinion or even to the opinion of the incumbent president. This potentially damages both the reliability and validity of the facts concerning, for instance, a major military operation or terrorist attack. Furthermore, both governmental and parliamentary online sources are messy to say the least. There is no such thing as an archive in which legislation or communication documents are stored orderly, the websites themselves are from time to time inaccessible altogether. Due to these difficulties, an analysis of data obtained from these sources may lack accuracy. 16

18 6 CASE DESCRIPTION Nigeria is a highly complex country, historically divided along the lines of ethnicity, religion, and language. Before this thesis elaborates on the pivotal part in this research, the analysis, it is helpful to first get accustomed with the country to which the analysis relates. This chapter serves this purpose, although it describes far from every imaginable aspect of Nigeria. Instead, it focuses on those aspects deemed relevant for the following chapters. Firstly, a brief political history of Nigeria will be discussed. Secondly, the country s demographics is outlined. Thirdly, the history of the domestic conflict is addressed. Fourthly and lastly, a collection of five religious militant movements is discussed, which, to varying degrees, pose a threat to present-day Nigeria. 6.1 Brief political history of Nigeria From the beginning of the 19th century, the creation of several protectorates in what is now known as Nigeria, had served British interests in trade and in the ending of slavery. It eventually led to the establishment of the Protectorate of Northern Nigeria and the Protectorate of Southern Nigeria. On 1 January 1914, the two protectorates were amalgamated into the Colony and Protectorate of Nigeria, however they remained administrated separately. The British chose to administer Nigeria through indirect rule, leaving local government in the hands of traditional rulers, who were subjugated to British oversight. These rulers, before the British arrived, had governed a variety of kingdoms and empires, such as the Hausa states of Kano, Katsina, and Zaria and the Kanem-Borno empire in the North, as well as the Yoruba states of Ife and Oyo in the South. The administrative system of indirect rule was designed to prevent all these separate states and populations to join forces and revolt against the colonial rulers. By leaving Muslim leaders in charge, the British accepted that the spread of Western education by Christian missionaries was resisted in the North (Encyclopædia Britannica, 2016). This prevented different populations to unite. However it also led to the asymmetrical development of Nigeria that has resulted in various problematic issues, some of which are still present today. Besides, because of earlier colonial experiences, the British were wary of removing traditional Muslim rulers in the North, since that might evoke popular protest. They therefore left the Fulani aristocracy in charge, along with their legal system of Sharia, thereby isolating North from South. These intentional ethnic and religious divisions have been at the 17

19 root of much of the inter-ethnic and inter-religious conflicts that followed after the country s independence on 1 October 1960 (Mahmud, 2009, p. 118) (Comolli, 2015, pp ). Nigeria s road after independence in 1960 has been full of troubles. The British division of the country in three regions (North, South-East, and South-West) that all had significant influence, inhabited by the largest ethnic groups (respectively Hausa-Fulani, Igbo, and Yoruba), largely contributed to the secession attempt of Biafra, which started the Nigerian Civil War in At the start of the war, the First Republic had already been replaced by Nigeria s first military junta, which lasted until The Second Republic, like its predecessor, was short-lived. It began in 1979 and already ended in It was succeeded by the second military junta, which ended in 1999, when Nigeria returned to civilian rule, and started the Fourth Republic of Nigeria, which as of today remains the country s form of government (Encyclopædia Britannica, 2016). 6.2 Demographics Population According to a July 2015 estimate, Nigeria is Africa s most populous and the world s eighth most populous country, inhabited by 181,562,056 people - an enormous increase when compared to the 33,000,000 inhabitants in 1950 (Central Intelligence Agency, 2016). The Nigerian population has grown, is growing rapidly, and will continue to do so in the future. A United Nations projection estimates Nigeria s population to have reached 399 million in 2050 (UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2015, p. 4). Consequently, the Nigerian population is relatively young. Slightly less than two-thirds is younger than the age of 25 and the remaining third, apart from seven percent older persons, consists of people between 35 and 54 years old. Regarding the worldwide rankings of median age (18,2 years) and life expectancy at birth (53 years), Nigeria is situated at the bottom of both rankings when compared to other countries in the world. Only a dozen other African countries reveal statistics worse than Nigeria (Central Intelligence Agency, 2016) Religion In addition to Nigeria being Africa s most populous country, it also accounts for the largest number of believers in Africa, which logically stems from the fact that almost every Nigerian citizen adheres to at least one religion. Two religions dominate the country s religious sphere: Islam and Christianity. Exact statistics are hard to come by, but there is a general agreement on a 50/50 division between these two religions. Roughly 90% of Nigerian Muslims are Sunni Muslims, divided among Sufi groups such as Tijaniyah and Qadiriyyah, following the Maliki 18

20 school of Islamic law. There is also a growing minority of Salafi movements. The remaining 10% are Shia Muslims, who are spread throughout northern Nigeria, especially in Sokoto State. As to the different branches of Christianity, numerous churches can be found in Nigeria, including: Roman Catholics, Anglicans, Baptists, and Presbyterians (American Foreign Policy Council, 2013, p. 6; Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, 2014, p. 2). A minority of Nigerians practices indigenous beliefs, some even combine them with one of the main religions. Before British colonial rule, the majority of Nigerians adhered to indigenous beliefs or to Islam. The British, however, discouraged the indigenous practices to such an extent that once the country became independent, the overwhelming majority of Nigerians adhered to either Islam or Christianity. Together with ethnic divisions, which will be discussed hereafter, the two main religions are generally understood to be divided into two geographical areas. In Northern Nigeria, the majority of the population is Muslim, while in Southern Nigeria, the majority is Christian. Originally, both geographical areas are also inhabited by sizable groups from the minority religion (i.e. Christians in the North, Muslims in the South). However, due to the ongoing Boko Haram violence in Northern Nigeria, especially Christians have fled the region in the last couple of years. This development is further described in the section on internal displacement. As to the Middle Belt, the geographical area situated between North and South, roughly half the population is Muslim, the other half Christian, thereby representing the general picture of religious divisions in Nigeria (Encyclopædia Britannica, 2016) Ethnic groups Regarding ethnic groups, Nigeria is roughly divided into three regions, which correspond to the three largest ethnic groups: the Hausa and Fulani (29% of the total population) in northern Nigeria, the Yoruba (21%) in southwestern Nigeria, and the Igbo (18%) in south-eastern Nigeria. Beside these, over 250 other ethnic groups inhabit the country, some of those of significant size and political influence: Ijaw (10%), Kunari (4%), Ibibio (3,5%), and Tiv (2,5%) (Central Intelligence Agency, 2016). Roughly two-thirds of these smaller ethnic groups are located in northern states. The smaller ethnic groups tend to cluster around the three largest groups, which gives Nigeria a tripolar ethnic structure (Mustapha, 2006, p. 2). This regional ethnic structure resulted from colonial policies, which were based on divideand-rule principles and left the three regions with a substantial degree of self-government after the country s independence in Not only did this reinforce a feeling of separateness between the three largest ethnic groups, it contributed to a North-South division as well. As 19

21 mentioned earlier, this division is also given a religious dimension, as the North is mostly populated by Muslims and the South by Christians (Forest, 2012, p. 19; Mohammed, 2014, p. 11). 6.3 Recent history of domestic conflict Since its independence in 1960, Nigeria has faced multiple domestic conflicts that are driven by varying causes. The Nigerian Civil War, during which the Igbo people declared the independent Republic of Biafra ( ), has been the first major conflict since independence. However, this chapter only highlights those conflicts that have occurred more recently. Two are described, both for different reasons. Firstly, the conflict in the Niger Delta, which started in the early 2000s, is described, because it is relatively recent and shares some similarities with the Boko Haram insurgency regarding government responses (Akpan, Ekanem, & Olofu-Adeoye, 2014, p. 153). Secondly, the Maitatsine uprisings of the 1980s are described, because these events share similarities with the Boko Haram insurgency regarding Islamic fundamentalism (Adesoji, 2011, p. 100). Describing these two previous conflicts sheds a light on how the Nigerian government has dealt with domestic conflict recently as well as how it approached religiously motivated domestic conflict in the past Conflict in the Niger Delta The conflict in the Niger Delta can be attributed to what Ibeanu (2000) calls a contradiction of securities (2000, p. 24). Put simply, the contradiction in the Niger Delta arises between different perceptions of what security should be. State officials and petro business actors, on the one hand, desire an untroubled crude oil industry, of which they benefit both economically and financially. On the other hand, local communities demand their interests to be recognized and seriously dealt with, including their environmental, economical, and physical suffering as well as their marginal share in the profits from the crude oil industry. Here, the state should interfere as mediator, striving for consensus and proper management of these contradictions. The Nigerian state, however, has not been able to rise above the competing parties. Instead of serving the interests of Nigerian people, the state has been privatized by the rulers with oil revenues as main source of income (Ibeanu, 2000, pp ). The Niger Delta has seen multiple opposition groups with varying interests and objectives come and go. Some of them used violence, some did not. Some were genuinely concerned about local grievances over oil and gas pollution, infrastructure, poverty, and the 20

22 region s marginal share in oil revenues, some were not. The most important militant group involved in the armed struggle with oil companies and the federal government, is the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND). Their militant activities, which started in 2006, severely impacted on Nigeria s main revenue source: export from the oil industry (International Crisis Group, 2015, p. 1). Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) In January 2006, MEND became publicly known as the group responsible for kidnapping a group of Western oil workers in the Niger Delta (Asuni, 2009, p. 3). The group s emergence resulted from talks in 2005 between the leaders of various militia groups that were active in the Niger Delta states, who agreed upon using violence by attacking oil installations and illegally bunkering oil. Following the kidnapping, in March 2006 they demanded increased political participation, increased involvement in the oil and gas industry, socioeconomic development, and reduced militarization of the Niger Delta (Asuni, 2009, pp ). Despite its creation being based on an agreement between several militia leaders, MEND should not be seen as a coherent militant organization. Instead, MEND is better characterized as an overarching entity. Right from its origin, groups joined and left constantly. Some were advancing their own goals rather than the common goals as formulated in March 2006 and only joined temporarily for particular operations. Furthermore, there seemed to be no agreement concerning the modus operandi. While some groups tried to address injustices felt by the population through dialogue, others chose to engage with oil companies and the federal government through armed struggle. Particularly those who chose to take up arms, soon set aside their initial justifiable goals and shifted towards criminal activities in order to enrich themselves (Asuni, 2009, p. 6). Government responses Back in 2000, over eighty percent of government revenues came from Nigeria s oil industry. In other words, the survival of government officials and agencies largely depends on oil revenues (Ibeanu, 2000, p. 21). Consequently, the Nigerian government understandably gives high priority to protecting this particular industry against all sorts of disruptions. In analysing government responses to the Niger Delta conflict, a rough distinction can be made between pre-2009 (starting in 2005) and post Before 2009, the predominantly military approach to protecting the government s oil interests, has contributed to the violent escalation of justifiable and nonviolent protests and demands, leading to an all-out armed 21

23 struggle (Akpan, Ekanem, & Olofu-Adeoye, 2014, p. 153). Due to the use of considerable military force against unarmed political activist groups, these groups increasingly felt the need to arm themselves and fight for the survival of their people (Forest J. J., 2012, p. 47). Thus, this approach contributed to the transformation of those groups into armed militia organizations such as MEND. The military was instructed to tackle the opposition groups of the Niger Delta. However contrary to these instructions, the military has aided the militant cause, both directly and indirectly. Directly, in cases where corrupt military personnel participated in criminal endeavours such as oil bunkering. After disagreeing on how the profits of oil bunkering should be divided, militant groups sought additional weaponry to fight off the military. Indirectly, by the overwhelming presence of military personnel in the Delta region combined with their brutal and violent behaviour, which drove ordinary civilians into the hands of militants, leading to an increased popular support for militant groups (Asuni, 2009, p. 14). The 2009 Presidential Amnesty Program has proven to be a key turning point in the Niger Delta conflict. This program aimed at the disarmament of militant groups by offering amnesty to the militants and offering them also both training and reintegration opportunities. Between 2009 and 2011, over 30,000 alleged militants signed up for the program. As a result of this program, the number of kidnappings and attacks on oil installations has decreased drastically (International Crisis Group, 2015, p. 2). However, at least one of several criticisms pertaining to the amnesty program should be mentioned. The program also contains monthly payments of $ 500 per militant, in a country where the minimum wage is around $ 130 (Comolli, 2015, p. 119). Besides the downside of being very expensive, it also gives little incentive to former militants to reintegrate into society, where they will be paid less for a regular job. Such a program could be translated into simply paying former militants to not commit violent offences, every month again, a rather dubious situation. Looking at the program s primary objective of disarming the Niger Delta s militants and stabilizing the overall security situation in the region, it has proven to be rather successful. Besides a decrease in numbers of kidnapping and attacks, the oil production tripled in the same time period , after it had decreased following the attacks on oil installations. However, as of 2015, kidnappings again seem to have increased gradually, although accurate statistics are missing. Furthermore, although most groups affiliated with MEND have accepted the amnesty program, some shadowy leaders and their followers continued to threaten violence (International Crisis Group, 2015, pp. 1-2). This again points at the unstructured, incoherent, and diverse features that characterize MEND. 22

24 6.3.2 Maitatsine uprisings In the early 19th century, a teacher following the Maliki school called Sheikh Usman dan Fodio waged a jihad in Northern Nigeria against the ruling Hausa elite, whom he loathed for being corrupt and blamed for being apostate. His jihad culminated in the establishment of the Sharia-governed Sokoto Caliphate in 1809 and started the region s history of militant religiosity (Hickey, 1984, p. 251). The conquest of the Sokoto Caliphate by the British colonizers in 1903, opened the region up to the influence of a secular political power. The colonisers initiated the process of separating religion and the state, which were tightly interwoven prior to this conquest (Falola, 1998, p. 50). Due to, inter alia, this fundamental change, many Muslim Northerners felt uncomfortable and rejected Westernization in general and Western education in particular, a sentiment that has been at the core of the Maitatsine uprisings in the 1980s. Muhammed Marwa Usman dan Fodio s jihad brought a deeply conservative version of Islam to Northern Nigeria. Muhammed Marwa, an Islamic scholar and preacher strongly inspired by Usman dan Fodio s view on Islam, had migrated from Cameroon to Kano (Kano State) in He established and became leader of the radical Islamic sect Maitatsine, which also became his personal nickname, meaning the one who curses. Maitatsine strived for the purification of Islam and was opposed to the corrupting influence of modernization and Western presence (Falola, 1998, p. 146). He opposed modernization to such an extreme extent, that he even cursed those who read any book other than the Quran, as well as those who made use of watches and even bicycles (American Foreign Policy Council, 2013, p. 4). Furthermore, the secularity of the Nigerian state was a significant thorn in the sect s side. Marwa s opposition to Western influence, to the affluent elites whom he portrayed as infidels and hypocrites, and to secular authorities, appealed to the urban poor in Kano. Furthermore, his promise to get rid of what he considered detestable entities while the promise of bringing God s redemption and salvation, attracted the urban Muslim poor. Among these poor are the Almajirai, poor and wandering Quranic students who lead a simple lifestyle and beg on the streets for alms (Hickey, 1984, pp ). Uprisings and government responses The Maitatsine uprisings consist of a chain of riots throughout Northern Nigeria, the largest of which took place in Kano State (1980), Kaduna State (1982), Adamawa State (1984), and 23