The Political Economy of Ambiguity

Transcription

1 The Political Economy of Ambiguity SACOTA AGM Centurion 11 October 2017 Theo Venter Political & Policy

2 Uitleg/ Outline A VUCA world What is the World saying? Which issues dominate? Burning issue in agriculture. ANC 54 th National Conference (December) Expectations

3 On the future and predictions No, I never came across the Prophet van Rensburg, the man who told General Kemp that it was the right time to rebel against the English. As you know, General Kemp followed his advice and they say that General Kemp still believed in Van Rensburg s prophecies, even after the two of them were locked up in the Pretoria Gaol. But I knew another prophet. His name was Erasmus. Stephanus Erasmus. Van Rensburg could only foretell that so and so was going to happen, and then he was wrong, sometimes. But with Stephanus Erasmus it was different. Erasmus used to make things come true just by prophesying them. There are lots of people like Van Rensburg who can just foretell the future, but when a man comes along who can actually make the future, the you feel that you can t make jokes about him. The Prophet The Mafeking Road (1947) Herman Charles Bosman

4 A VUCA world

5 More than one Zuma around!

6 If Trump is your friend..

7 Globale onsekerheid: Rocket Man

8 Perception and Reality in the Political World

9 View One: A clear, single view of the future You must understanding the dynamics of change You must be able to control the environment You must have predictability You must have stability Current Future Current Reality Where we are now Mechanistic view of the world

10 View Two: A limited set of possible future outcomes Change is more complex than we think - only the parameters of change is knowable. We assume the system is in dynamic equilibrium. We have very little control over the external environment. The process is cyclical Evolving Future Current Reality Organismic view of the world

11 View Three: A range of possible future outcomes Social systems are extremely complex systems. We experience periods of stability followed by periods of chaos. Systems seems to be in dynamic disequilibrium Scenario 1 Multiple outcomes the norm rather than the exception Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Current reality Paradigmatic view of the world Scenario 4

12 The current state of affairs

13 The Vicious and Virtuous Cycles Virtuous Cycle Centripetal forces dominate ( Seeking the centre ) Vicious Cycle Centrifugal forces dominate ( Moving away from the centre )

14 The Vicious and Virtuous Cycles Independent Judiciary Relative Good infrastructure Stable Political System Weak economy Ruling Party in disarry Crime Corruption Excellent Constitution Poverty Good Banking system Restrictive labour regime Stable financial system Good financial governance Free media Freedom to associate High unemployment Policy uncertainty Government inefficiency Education crisis

15 Moody s on 16 August Abrupt Cabinet reshuffle has further reduced business confidence. 2. Political tensions within the ANC are rising in the run up to leadership elections. 3. Growth is underperforming and unemployment rate the highest since the global financial crisis. 4. Revised Mining Charter draws dispute within the mining sector. 5. Long-awaited FICA bill approved. 6. SARB cuts rates as inflationary expectations fall and growth remains below potential. 7. Recent bailout of SAA points to ongoing financial challenges of state-owned enterprises.

16 Political Climate as a Constraint on Business Political Climate since 1987 as measured in the Manufacturing Sector Decrease Political Constraint Increase Feb Dakar visit Boipatong and East Rand violence CODESA in limbo FW de Klerk becomes president New constitution 1993 NP withdrew from GNU 1994 Election Mandela retire 1999 Election 2004 Election ANC Mangaung Zuma reelected 2008 Global Financial Crisis ANC Polokwane 2007 Zuma elected Economy booms under Mbeki Nenegate 9/2015 Marikana Election Mandela Dec 2013 Nkandla 3/ Election 2016 Local Election Source: BER; Quantec; MFA DATABASE (Economic upswings shaded)

17 Real GDP Growth and Political Constraint Eighty-six per cent of manufacturers view the political climate as a constraint on business, reflecting public policy uncertainty and poor public finances.

18 Suid-Afrika val 14 plekke in WEF Mededingingsindeks

19 Suid-Afrika val 14 plekke in WEF Mededingingsindeks

20 Suid-Afrika val 14 plekke in WEF Mededingingsindeks

21 Policy Uncertainty Index 2017

22 Political Dynamics Theo Venter Political & Policy

23 State capture and other myths

24 The Policy Conference.

25 Sensemaking Measuring support in general. ANC support at 47% DA support at 21% EFF support at 5% Will not vote 7% Refuse 10% ANC below 50% But, DA not gaining, AND EFF declining? Source: IPSOS Press Release 1 Sep 2017

26 The 54 th National Conference Sensemaking Do away with NWC? Two possible deputy presidents Increase Top Six with two more DSG s 1. Akkreditasie Five full-time NEC members 2. Grondwetlike Top wysigings Six will become Top 13? 3. Beleidsaanpassings Smaller NEC from 80 to Verkiesing Better branch organisation Better regional organisation Own ANC internal Electoral Commission? More efficient disciplinary structures. Integrity Commission as well as a National Dispute Resolution Committee.

27 Replacing Zuma: A two centres of power scenario? Zuma s 1 st term as state president ( ) ANC as government: State dynamics Zuma s 2 nd term as state president ( ) If Ramaphosa or any other leader does not take over soon after Dec 2017 (Mbeki scenario), May 2019 seems ANC as next political opportunity. party: Political dynamics Zuma s 2 nd term as ANC president ( ) Zuma s 2 nd term as ANC president ends. Cyril Ramaphosa challenged for position by inter alia Nkosazana Dlamini- Zuma, Baleka Mbete, Lindiwe Sisulu, Matthews Phosa, Zweli Mkize & Jeff Radebe. New ANC president for five year term Dec 2012 May 2014 Oct 2015 Aug 2016 Jun 2017 Dec 2017 May 2019 Dec 2012 Mangaung Elective Conference May 2014 General Election Oct 2015 ANC National General Council 2016 Local Government Elections 2017 ANC Policy Conference Dec 2017 ANC Elective Conference May 2019 General election Zone of 2017

28 Sensemaking A Post-Zuma South Africa

29 A post-zuma South Africa? How will the Zuma term ends? What is the exit plan? Illness? A negotiated exit Smart route? Pardon or amnesty Legaly unlikely? Political pressure - Recall? Politically unlikely only after December 2017? A normal process? May 2019? The images of Zuma in the media and of Zuma in the ANC are worlds apart. Zuma has a strong grip on the ANC with strong support in KZN, North West, Free State and with pockets of support in Mpumalanga, Limpopo and the Eastern Cape. KZN court case a game changer. Zuma has developed a very strong informal system of support within the civil service and state agencies, not always reflected in top appointments. Virtually no trace of Zuma in the big events like Gupta Waterkloof landing.

30 Political paradox who is sinking?

31 Expectations for With the ANC electoral process in full swing the political noise will intensify and contradictions will increase. 2. Zuma is a dangerous lame duck since Nenegate, but what is his use by date? (Is Dec 2017 the beginning of the end?) 3. Continued low growth with another sovereign risk downgrade during 2017? 4. New trade union federation (SAFTO) established in May Competition for COSATU? 5. Lawfare (rule of Law) the name of the game? 6. Massive civil reaction across racial and political divide vis-a-vis the Zuma presidency. Is this our Velvet Revolution? 7. Continued policy uncertainty and decision paralysis. 31

32 How do I respond to a VUCA environment

33 How to manage a VUCA environment? 1. Innovate and shape the future. 2. Execution speed and agility. 3. Stay clear of ideologies and dogma search for flexible and pragmatic solutions. 4. Define your Anchors - North Star or Southern Cross. 5. Search for Simplicity - to counter complexity. 6. Encourage collaboration - nobody can do it alone. 7. Keep on Learning. Do your research. Read. 8. Invest in Resilience ability to bounce back.

34 Dankie vir u aandag Theo Venter Political & Policy Specialist