POST VISIT REPORT. 4 TH PAK-TURKEY SECURITY ROUNDTABLE (19-20 December 2012) FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES, RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS (ISSRA)

Transcription

1 POST VISIT REPORT 4 TH PAK-TURKEY SECURITY ROUNDTABLE (19-20 December 2012) INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES, RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS (ISSRA) NATIONAL DEFENCE UNIVERSITY ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN

2 1 4 TH PAK-TURKEY SECURITY ROUNDTABLE December 2012 (POST ROUNDTABLE REPORT) 1. General. A Turkish delegation headed by Colonel Hasip Saygili along with his team visited NDU from December 2012 to participate in the 4 th Pak- Turkey Security Roundtable Talk arranged by Institute for Strategic Studies; Research and Analysis (ISSRA), National Defence University, Islamabad. The deliberation was made on the following topics:- a. Pak-Turkey role in rebuilding Afghanistan in Post-US Scenario. b. Russian factor in the regional cooperation in Asia. c. Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) example of new regionalism. d. Pak-Turkey brotherhood and Economic Cooperation: Challenges and Action Strategy. 2. The session commenced with the recitation of the Holy Quran. Dean Faculty of Contemporary Studies (FCS), Dr. Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema, chaired the session. The Dean FCS warmly welcomed the visiting Turkish Delegation and highlighted the importance of the topics and issues to be discussed in the two days roundtable talks. In addition to ISSRA Faculty, the event was also attended by the representatives of important Think Tanks and faculty/students FCS. 3. The Dean FCS fondly stated that the cooperation between Pakistan and Turkey is deep rooted, bounded by common historical, ideological, and cultural links. Both countries are members of Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO), Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC) and Developing Eight (D-8). They have supported each other stance on most issues such as Kashmir, Cyprus and Palestine

3 2 and other matters such as terrorism, democracy, nuclear proliferation, trade, and commerce. Economic cooperation between the two countries is on expanding trend and currently the bilateral trade between Pakistan and Turkey is almost $ 1 billion. Salient of the Proceedings 4. First Presentation. The first presentation was initiated by the Colonel Atahan Birol Kartal, Turkish Speaker on the Russian Factor on the Regional Cooperation in Asia. The salient aspects of the presentation are as under:- a. Russia does not want to lose its influence in the former Soviet countries. Russia calls these countries as Near Abroad. The South Caucasus or Trans-Caucasia is also one of these places. b. The introduction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil and gas pipeline has undermined Russia s effort to monopolize energy resources in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). These developments give a blurred picture of Russia s objectives in the region. Russian foreign policy in the post-soviet period is formed on the basis of maintaining hegemony of the former Soviet territory. c. The Russian foreign policy in the South Caucasus, primarily is as followed:- (1) Regulating armed conflicts around Russia and preventing their spread into Russian territory. (2) Guaranteeing the observance of the Russia and Russian speaking populations rights. (3) Returning to the South Caucasus through mediation between the countries involved in ethnic conflict. (4) Preventing US s growing economic and political power and expansion of NATO in the South Caucasus countries.

4 3 (5) Desire to exercise control over the Caspian basin, the Central Asian oil and gas destined for the western market. d. Turkey s South Caucasus Policy is as followed:- (1) To strengthen trade and cultural ties with Georgia and Azerbaijan. (2) To transfer oil and gas resources in the Caspian Sea to the western market through Turkey. (3) To solve the problems between Armenia and Azerbaijan. (4) To ensure the withdrawal of troops in the Azerbaijan territory. (5) To maintain dominance over Central Asian Turkish Republics through the South Caucasus region. e. Iran considers that Central Asia and the Caucasus region are the important areas for its security; According to the size of the Shiite population, the Republic of Azerbaijan ranks second in the world after Iran. f. United States regional goals appear to:- (1) Contain Russia and isolate Iran. (2) Ensure a degree of control over the hydrocarbon reserves of Caspian. (3) Develop alternative routes for oil pipeline. (4) Sustain the alliance of regional allies including Turkey, Georgia, and Azerbaijan. (5) Maintain strong military presence including military bases. (6) Reinforce regional stability and resolve the issues of Abkhazia, Southern Ossetia, and Nagorno-Karabakh.

5 4 g. Russia considers region as its own backyard and would like to keep it under control for security. Russia is not comfortable with the United States and Turkey playing active role in transportation of hydrocarbon resources. h. With regards to energy, EU attaches importance to the alternative resources so as to reduce its reliance on Russia. i. The Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) railway link is a strategic route whereby Azerbaijan and Georgia will be connected with the railway network of China, Central Asia, the South Caucasus, Turkey and EU. It will boost annual continental trade between Asia and Europe by rail to 10 million tons in a few years. j. Interactive Session (1) At the end of the first session, queries were raised regarding the exact potentials of natural resources of Caucasus region. How well the Turkish diplomacy works and how Turkey being part of NATO & SCO is going to maintain balance between NATO vis-avis SCO? Additionally, assertion was made about the future pipe line politics of USA while bypassing Russia and Iran. (2) In response, it was stated that there is variation of figures regarding proven and possible hydrocarbon reserves of the regions. Nevertheless, the potential of the fissile reserve is definitely going to mark its prominence in the pipeline diplomacy in the foreseeable future. (3) Turkey is trying to reduce its dependence on Russian hydrocarbon resources and she has signed protocol with

6 5 Armenia. However, Armenian parliament did not ratify it due to the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh issue. (4) Armenia depends on Russia for security and economy. Second Presentation 5. The second presentation was initiated by the Colonel R. Kutay Karaca, Ph.D, Turkish Speaker on the Example for a New Regionalism: Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The salient of the presentation are as under:- a. Geographically, SCO makes 74% of Eurasia, demographically 40% and world s largest commercial market. Furthermore, 10% of the world s oil reserves and 26.3% natural gas reserves are located in the region. b. Presence of common separatists threat faced by member states and their successful execution of strategy depends on:- (1) Denying rights to separatists. (2) Warning other states not to extend recognition. (3) Suppressing through militarily means. c. For China, SCO provides a chance to establish strong connections in security, political, economic and cultural fields. China is trying to make other regional countries economically dependent and by cooperating with Russia; China aims to change USA s supremacy from one superpower into multi-polar balance of powers. d. Russian approach is to:- (1) Stand against democratization efforts of its member states. (2) Promote objectives of Russian foreign policy. (3) Resist against NATO s intervention in Caucasus and Central Asia. (4) Curtail USA s and EU s influence in Central Asia.

7 6 e. China opposes granting of Iran a membership mainly because of three reasons as follows:- (1) Iran may reduce the standing of SCO on the fight against separatism. (2) Possibility of Iran of using the organization to increase politico - religious influence in the region (3) China s concern due to Iran s initiative on Nuclear Weapons acquisition. f. Extension of SCO membership to Pakistan and India is not likely in foreseeable future because SCO would not like to bring Kashmir dispute in its forum. g. Future challenges pointed in the roundtable were:- (1) An environment of mistrust prevails within the organization, since Russia has been accepted as a member of Central Asian Economic Cooperation Organization whereas, China did not receive any invitation. (2) Chinese relations with Russia can change the forum from cooperation into confrontation. (3) United States presence in Kyrgyzstan is mounting pressure on the former Soviet States, this may lead to chaos of changing regimes. h. Interactive Session (1) It was concluded in the roundtable, that SCO is a similar organization that was established in 1815 after agreement in Vienna, serving to protect own regimes. Observer states will not be accepted as member states in short-term. SCO is characterized

8 7 by a notion of partnership not alliance, lastly the organization will not transform into a Warsaw Pact in the future and it seems difficult for the organization to turn into a military organization as military cooperation within the organization has been least developed. (2) A question was raised about Turkish vision with regards to striking a balance, while being part of two important organizations namely, NATO and SCO. The Turkish side was uncertain about the future course of action in this connection. However, Turks were of the opinion that Turkey is trying to board on two boats which was not a recommended option. (3) The Turkish scholar also agreed that China dominates the SCO with 60% funds flowing from China. In his opinion, every country tries to secure its interests while joining such organizations. Even Russia is advancing its own interests in the regional and global politics. Turkey should be clear in its participation in multiple regional blocks. Turkey is in SCO merely as a dialogue partner at present. In future, the role of Turkey in SCO can be more assertive. (4) An important question was raised regarding the Russian support in the Middle East conflict. Turkish delegation clearly mentioned that a destabilized Syria will be a big challenge to Turkey. It was analogous to Afghanistan for Pakistan. (5) Pakistani side was also curious about the Turkish view of development of Anti-Ballistic Missiles (ABM) in the neighbourhood of Russia, maintenance of US nukes in NATO,

9 8 Energy pipeline projects from Iran and containment of Russia. Turkish side opined that the US has its own priorities and foreign policy agendas, where ABM against Russia is one. As far as the issue of nukes, Germany and France are economically strong enough and they do not bother on this issue in NATO. US Iran row poses a great threat to the oil prices in the world. In this case, China loses and Russia wins with the oil situation. Russia is openly supporting Syria that is a problem for US as well. Third Presentation 6. The third presentation was initiated by Air Marshal (Retired), Masood Akhtar, on the topic Pak-Turkey Role in Rebuilding Afghanistan in Post US Scenario. The salient of the presentation are as under:- a. American strategists want Pakistan to destroy all the terrorist forces and go for a complete kinetic war. On the other hand, Americans themselves are pursuing both kinetic and non-kinetic options in Afghanistan. b. Pakistan is ready to put all the resources for border security. Nonetheless, the West must understand the Pakistani limitations. Therefore, they must help Pakistan in this war against terrorism otherwise they would not be able to reap the benefits of this war. c. Turkey is also a major player in Afghanistan. But its support did not go beyond specific limits. Despite repeated requests from the US side, Turkey did not sent combat troops. Therefore, Turkey enjoys higher level of confidence in Afghan society. d. It is worth mentioning that since 2001, Turkish foreign policy s focus has remained on supporting international cooperation; protection of

10 9 civilians; acting in accordance with the UNSC resolutions; and not taking part in armed conflicts. The practical manifestation of Turkish foreign policy can be seen in Kabul Declaration and Istanbul Declaration. Pakistan not only respects these objectives but also supports these declarations in true letter and spirit. e. Ever since the Soviet invasion, Pakistan s enduring aim has been to see a stable and friendly Afghanistan with stable and secure borders. f. Pakistan not only wants that no anti-pakistan alliances should be forged within Afghanistan but also that Afghani soil must not be used for creating disturbances inside Pakistan. g. Pakistan thinks that the prolonged conflict in Afghanistan can only be ended through an inside-out strategy rather than an outside-in strategy. h. Keeping in view the demographic facts of the country, Taliban should be convinced to conclude a power-sharing formula with Northern Alliance. Otherwise there would be a civil war which would prevent withdrawal of US troops even after i. Interactive Session (1) Afghanistan issue is not only a problem for Pakistan but also for Turkey and other western countries. Therefore, the current discourse on post US Afghanistan raised numerous questions including Af-Pak policy, Pashtoon representation, political vacuum in Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, Pak-Turkey developmental projects in Afghanistan, drug trade, Afghan National Army, the US intelligence framework in Pakistan, drone attacks, and Kashmir issue.

11 10 (2) Pakistan resents the Af-Pak policy and the reason is that firstly Pakistan is not the part of problem rather it is the part of solution. (3) In the Af-Pak policy, the US has lump Pakistan with Afghanistan which is quite a wrong decision. (4) Pashtoons are the largest ethnic group in Afghanistan. For making a stable Afghanistan, this largest ethnic group must be integrated in the national politics of the country. (5) Both Pakistan and Turkey are engaged in developmental projects in Afghanistan. Turkey has invested $ 2.8 billion in the health, energy, education, infrastructure and security sector. On the other hand, Pakistan has invested $ 360 million in state building structures. (6) Drug trade is also a great concern for Pakistan. According to a report, the Afghan drug trade has reached $ 83 billion. Almost 40 percent of this drug is being utilized in Pakistan which is a serious challenge to Pakistan. Moreover, the volume of drug trade is three times larger than the actual GDP of Afghanistan; which means that the three times higher drug economy is not only sustaining the conflict in Afghanistan but it also shows that the collation forces have failed to curb the menace of drug in Afghan society. (7) Afghan National Army (ANA) cannot be called as a national army as it has been built against the concept of nation. Theoretically, national army is constituted while including all the ethnic groups of a nation but ANA depicts an opposite story.

12 11 (8) The US and British intelligence is very much active in the tribal areas of Pakistan. Unfortunately, the role of CIA is not to deal with the Pakistani security institutions but to create a parallel system of intelligence network against national security of Pakistan. According to an estimate, about 8000 CIA operators are working in Pakistan which is a serious security issue in Pakistan. (9) Pakistan is against the drone attacks in its tribal areas. Protest has been lodged at different forums against drone strikes, which is center productive and has a backlash against the Pakistani state and society. The US should stop the use of drone and intelligence sharing should be made with Pakistani forces. (10) Kashmir issue is a serious problem in the region. The success in Afghanistan opens leads from Kashmir. The US and the western countries should help in resolving the Kashmir conflict so that the menace of extremism and terrorism can be eradicated. Fourth Presentation 7. The fourth presentation was initiated by Dr. Muhammad Fahim Khan, on the topic Pak-Turkey Brotherhood and Economic Cooperation: Challenges and Action Strategy. The salient of the presentation are as under:- a. In spite of the geographical distance coupled with clear socio-economic differences, Turkey and Pakistan have cordial and brotherly relations since times immemorial. Turkish help in the wake of natural disasters in Pakistan, like the earth quake 2005 and floods in 2010 are recent examples of the continuation of the mutual bonds of love between the people of both countries. This spirit of brotherhood, however, is yet to be translated into economic strength.

13 12 b. Though the volume of trade between the two countries has increased manifolds, crossing $997million in 2010, but it is still too less to be appreciated. It is proposed that at least 10 percent of their total trade be enhanced by c. It is proposed that a research-based study be carried out to identify the complementarities in commodity production and trade between the two countries, along with identifying key policy options and regulatory controls to exploit them, through possible funding from Islamic Development Bank. d. Turkey has substantial advantage in wages of technical and professional labor, particularly those relevant to manufacturing sector etc. Therefore, both the countries should build partnerships and work to enhance bilateral trade relations on urgent basis. e. Interactive Session (1) The Turkish delegation expressed willingness of their government to invest especially in the education sector of Pakistan, provided the state of Pakistan guarantees the protection of the investors and the infrastructure that they would build here. (2) The Pakistani side highlighted that people to people contact through exchange of delegation of students and members of academia should be arranged on regular basis. (3) The scientific community of both countries to propose and undertake joint projects. At this point even military to military contacts between the two countries leave much to be desired. (4) On the strategic level, Pakistan would appreciate Turkey s cooperation in terms of countering India s hegemonic designs in

14 13 Afghanistan through effective use of soft power for peace and tranquility in the region. (5) More bilateral investments can take place between both the countries. For example, Pakistan should be allowed to set up cement plants in Turkey. There could be joint ventures in the fields of civil nuclear energy and tourism. (6) Both countries should carry forward the legacy of the past, albeit with more seriousness, resolve and enthusiasm to cement the brotherly relations by also strengthening their economic ties and trade relations. Specific Conclusions 8. The interaction with the Turkish delegation remained highly fruitful. Mostly debates were academic cum analytical in nature and Pakistani participants were intensively engaged in the discussions. The focus remained on following aspects:- a. Post US Afghanistan and security environment with special emphasis on the operational capability of Afghan National Security apparatus. b. Initiation of Pak-Turkey joint ventures in building and rehabilitation of Afghanistan. c. Pakistan s efforts to secure the status of SCO membership. d. Fragile security environment in Pakistan and its detrimental effect on economic growth. e. Russian factor is quite prominent in the regional cooperation in Asia. Regional Cooperation is quite wide and encompasses many different dimensions, ie political, security, cultural and economic etc.

15 14 f. Russia can potentially act as a bridge between the Asia-Pacific region and Europe. Turkey being the member of SCO would not only have economic gains but geo-political as well. g. In an effort to add some strength to the regional economic bloc, Russia is looking to expedite India and Pakistan's membership process into the SCO. Turkey is well placed to play its constructive role to bring Pakistan into the fold of SCO. Concluding Remarks 9. The Dean FCS concluded two days roundtable talk as the most rewarding activity in terms of exchange and sharing of views between both sides pertaining to the issues of mutual interests. He summed up that the scholarly endeavors of speakers and active participation from the audience had generated healthy discussion which helped us in identifying mutual goals. The Dean hoped that the thoughts presented would remain in the forefront of scholarly discourse in future as well. He thanked the visiting dignitaries and Pakistani speakers/participants for active participation in the roundtable and making it a meaningful activity.