Cross-Strait Relations and Electoral Politics in Taiwan

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1 Cross-Strait Relations and Electoral Politics in Taiwan Lu-huei Chen Distinguished Research Fellow Election Study Center National Chengchi University, Taiwan Visiting Scholar Political Science Department, MIT 1

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3 Outline l Cross-Strait Relations after Ma s Inauguration in 2008( 會談開放 ECFA) l Major Attitudes Trends in Taiwan( 統獨政黨認同臺灣人認同 ) l Attitudes of Chinese Government toward Taiwan( 敵意善意 ) l Cross-Strait Service and Trade Agreement( 兩岸服貿協議 ) l Electoral Politics in Taiwan( 制度投票參與情況 ) l 2014 nine-in-one elections( 選舉種類與主要投票傾向 ) l Interactions between Electoral Politics and Cross-Strait Relations 3

4 Cross-Strait Relations and Electoral Politics l Elite play dominant role on cross-strait relations before 1996 l Presidential elections and cross-strait relations since

5 Cross-Strait Relations after Ma s Inauguration in 2008 l China Policies since 1996 l Cross-Strait Exchanges since

6 China Policies since 1996 l Lee Teng-hui (1988~2000) No haste, be patient (jie-ji yong-ren) ( 戒急用忍 ) 6

7 Chen Shui-bian(2000~2008) Proactive management & effective liberalization (ji-ji guang-li you-xiao kai-fang) ( 積極管理有效開放 ) 7

8 Ma Ying-jeou(2008~2016) New 3-no policy: No unification, no independence, no use of military force ( 不統不獨不武 ) 8

9 Cross-Strait exchanges after 2008 Chiang-Chen Summit: Chiang Pin-kung, the Chair of Taiwan s Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF), and Chen Yunlin held institutionalized talks since June in Beijing. Chen Yunlin, the Head of the Association for Relations across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS), came to visit Taipei in November in Taipei. 9

Cross-Strait exchanges after 2008 Chen Yunlin, the head of the Association for Relations across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS), came to visit Taipei in November of 2008, and he is the high-ranking

10 Cross-Strait exchanges after 2008 Chen Yunlin, the head of the Association for Relations across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS), came to visit Taipei in November of 2008, and he is the high-ranking Chinese official to visit since Chiang Pin-kung, the Chair of Taiwan s Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF), and Chen Yunlin held institutionalized talks since June The Ma administration proposed Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) with Beijing to further economic cooperation between Taiwan and China. (2010/06/29) 10

11 Wang-Zhang Meeting Wang Yu-chi, the Minister of Mainland Affairs Council (MAC), went to Nanjing on 11 February This meeting is the very first official contact between the two governments across the Taiwan Strait after the end of Chinese Civil War in Zhang Zhijun, the Director of Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) came to Taipei on 25 June It was the highest PRC government official visit to Taiwan. 11

Wang-Zhang Meeting 2-11-2014 Chen Yunlin, the head of the Association for Relations across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS), came to visit Taipei in November of 2008, and he is the high-ranking Chinese

12 Wang-Zhang Meeting Chen Yunlin, the head of the Association for Relations across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS), came to visit Taipei in November of 2008, and he is the high-ranking Chinese official to visit since Chiang Pin-kung, the Chair of Taiwan s Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF), and Chen Yunlin held institutionalized talks since June The Ma administration proposed Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) with Beijing to further economic cooperation between Taiwan and China. (2010/06/29) 12

13 Major Political Attitudes Dynamics of Electoral Politics in Taiwan --Identity Politics --Attitudes toward Mainland China 13

14 Preference on Taiwan Independence Issue 14 Regarding the relations between Taiwan and mainland China, there are a number of different views. Which position better represent your view on this issue? 1. Unification with China ASAP (Unification) 2. Declaring independence ASAP (Independence) 3. Maintaining status quo, moving toward unification (SQ-Unification 4. Maintaining status quo, moving toward independence (SQ -Independence) 5. Maintaining status quo, deciding at late date (SQ-Decide later) 6. Maintaining status quo indefinitely (SQ-Indefinitely)

15 Preference on Taiwan Independence Issue 15

16 Preference on Taiwan Independence Issue 16

17 Trends of Party ID 17

18 Trends of Party ID_by Partisan Camp 18

19 Trends of Chinese/Taiwanese Identity 19

20 Prospects on Cross-Strait Relations 20

21 Prospects on Cross-Strait Relations by Party ID 21

22 Prospects on Cross-Strait Relations by Identity 22

23 Chinese Gov. treat Taiwanese Gov. 23

24 Chinese Gov. treat Taiwanese 24

25 Sunflower Student Movement in 2014 l Date: March 18 to April 10, 2014, in the Legislative Yuan l Why:The activists protested the passing of the Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement (CSSTA) by the ruling party Kuomintang (KMT) at the legislature without clause-by-clause review. 25

26 26 民意與調查

27 ) 27 民意與調查

28 28 民意與調查

29 Political Emotion: Hopeful 29 民意與調查

30 Political Emotion: Angry 30 民意與調查

31 Political Emotion: Worrisome 31 民意與調查

32 Emotions and Political Participation 32

33 Emotions and Attitude toward CSSTA 33

34 Electoral Politics in Taiwan l Presidential Election l Legislative Elections l Local Elections 34

35 Electoral Participation:National Elections 35

36 Electoral Participation:Local Elections 36

37 Election Results,

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39 Social Bases for Major Parties 39 l KMT Females, 40~59 yr, Wei-shang-ren, Hakka, educated, Governemntal Officers, North and middle Taiwan, Satisfied with Cross-Strait relations, Pan-Blue partisans, Pro-Unification and Maintaining Status Quo, Dual-Identity l DPP yr, Min-nan-ren, lower education, labor, farmer, Southern Taiwan, Pan-Green partisans, Pro-Independence, Taiwan Identity

40 New Taipei City 40

41 Local Elections: Nov. 29, 2014 l 6 municipal cities Mayor/City councilor/leader/councilor of Aboriginal District/Li Elections DPP: 4; KMT:1; IND: 1 l 16 Counties Magistrate/county councilor/township/ township councilor/li elections 41 DPP: 9;KMT:5 ; IND:2

42 Legislative Elections 42 l Total seats: 113 l Mixed-member Majoritarian systems l One vote for candidate (70% of total seats) 1. SMD: 73 seats 2. Two Aboriginal Districts: 3 seats for each l One vote for party (30% of total seats) 1. PR: 34 seats 2. Threshold: 5%

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44 2008 Legislative Elections 44 國民黨 (KMT) 民進黨 (DPP) 1 新黨 (NP) 2 親民黨 (PFP) 台聯 (TSU) 無黨聯盟 (NPSU) 3 其他 (Other) 2008 SMD PR 4 Aboriginal Total Vote % Seat(%) Vote % Seat(%) Vote % Seat(%) Seat(%) (78.08) (58.82) (66.67) 81 (71.68) (17.81) (41.18) (0.00) (23.89) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (16.67) (0.89) (0.00) (0.00) (2.74) (0.00) (16.67) (2.66) (1.37) (0.00) (0.00) (0.89) Total Turnout % 58.72% 58.28% 47.36% ---

45 2012 Legislative Elections SMD PR 4 Aboriginal Total Vote % Seat(%) Vote % Seat(%) Vote % Seat(%) Seat(%) 國民黨 (KMT) (60.27) (47.06) (66.67) (56.64) 民進黨 (DPP) (36.99) (38.24) (0.00) (35.40) 1 新黨 (NP) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) 2 親民黨 (PFP) (0.00) (5.88) (16.67) (2.65) 台聯 (TSU) (8.82) (2.65) 無黨聯盟 (NPSU) (1.37) (16.67) (1.77) 3 其他 (Other) (1.37) (0.00) (0.00) (0.88) Total Turnout % 74.72% 74.33% 61.99%

46 Cross-Strait Relations and Electoral Politics l Public Opinion play more important role on Cross- Strait relations l Politicians have to respond people s preference on major issues l Roles of cross-strait economic exchanges and political emotions toward China 46

47 Thank you for your attention!! Q & A 47

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