Global Perspectives Barometer Global Perspectives Barometer Dossier 33. For the complete survey results visit

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1 Global Perspectives Barometer Dossier 33 Global Perspectives Barometer 0 Globalization, Power and Efficient Elites What will the global power structure look like in 0 years time? How has it changed in recent years? Which sectors are attractive? Do opportunities or risks have greater weight in the globalized economy? Is Facebook changing the world? Credit Suisse s Global Perspectives Barometer 0 provides insights into how Leaders of Tomorrow, in other words talented young people starting out on their career paths, view the world, what they expect, what they dread and what attracts them. For the complete survey results visit Credit Suisse bulletin special St. Gallen Symposium

2 3 Dossier Global Perspectives Barometer GLOBAL POWER IN 0 YEARS: MEAN From your perspective, rank the following global powers according to their influence on global economic and political issues in 0 years time. China.0 US. European Union 3. India 3.8 Russia. Brazil. Japan. mean rank SHIFT IN POWER: TOTAL Against the backdrop of the recent financial crisis, do you think there has been a shift in power toward? regulatory bodies 3 3 politics in general 3 9 the government of your country the people international governmental organisations the financial industry managers shift in power no change loss of power no comments Photo: Alan Schein Photography, Corbis, Specter Sources: Credit Suisse, gfs.bern bulletin special St. Gallen Symposium Credit Suisse

3 Global Perspectives Barometer Dossier 3 The group of Leaders of Tomorrow consists of 00 carefully selected participants of the St. Gallen Symposium, chosen anew each year and invited to attend the event. One half of the participants qualifies on the basis of an essay on the symposium s topic through the Wings of Excellence Award, a competition publicized in leading universities and business schools around the world. The other 00 youngsters are chosen from a list drawn up each year on the basis of academic recommendations from the network of the St. Gallen Symposium. It consists of talented young people under the age of 30 who have distinguished themselves in business or research activities related to the respective year s symposium topic. The online survey for the Global Perspectives Barometer was carried out for the first time in 00 and again in February 0. It was commissioned by Credit Suisse in cooperation with the St. Gallen Symposium and conducted by the market research institute gfs.bern. A questionnaire was sent to all the current Leaders of Tomorrow in addition to those from the five previous years. By early March, responses had been received from 3 young men and women. The results may not be representative, but they are certainly revealing: The Global Perspectives Barometer 0 reflects the views of globally aware, talented young people from all four corners of the world. The questionnaires were answered after the beginning of the upheavals in the Arab world, but before the earthquake and nuclear catastrophe in Japan. It is very possible that today some of the answers would be different. Because, the elite of the future is alert and quick, and its view of the world is not set in stone. That is one conclusion that can be drawn from the Global Perspectives Barometer 0, an overall impression based on a series of snapshots in which the future elite reveal their thoughts and ambitions. The following sections provide insights into the block topics of power shifts, economics and globalization, and politics and issues (for the complete survey results visit The Global Power Structure The Leaders of Tomorrow rank the world of today as follows: The US is the leader, followed by China and the European Union, followed in turn by Japan, India, Russia and Brazil. Looking 0 years into the future, the list contains the same names, but in a different order: China will have overtaken the US as the leading global power. In the view of the future leaders, the European Union will still rank third, followed by India in fourth place, ahead of Japan. Indeed, in the assessment of the future elite, by 03 Japan will also have been overtaken by Russia and Brazil (see chart on p. 3: Global Power in 0 Years). In a second block of questions on the topic of power and influence, the Leaders of Tomorrow were asked to evaluate the position of individual actors in the context of the financial crisis. The result: Whereas the crisis has cost the financial industry power and influence, regulatory institutions and politics have gained power and influence (see chart on p. 3: Shift in Power). Economics and Globalization Interestingly, although in the opinion of the Leaders of Tomorrow the fi nancial industry is the big loser in the crisis it triggered, the proportion of the young elite drawn to banking and insurance is larger than any other industry. Despite negative headlines, crisis, tarnished reputation, loss of power and greater regulation, the financial > 3 PREFERRED SECTOR : TOTAL In which sector are you most likely to work in the next five years? TREND PROMISING SECTOR How promising do you believe the current business situation to be in the following sectors? telecommunications energy pharmaceutical consumer goods chemical 0 industrial 0 0 financial 8 9 financial energy industrial consumer goods telecommunications transportation pharmaceutical agricultural chemical transportation agricultural 0 00, very promising, fairly promising Credit Suisse bulletin special St. Gallen Symposium

4 3 Dossier Global Perspectives Barometer TREND THE ROLE OF THE STATE IN ECONOMIC POLICY Throughout the course of history, people have attempted to regulate industry and control and organize economic systems in vastly different ways. The role of the state in these processes has also varied. To that extent should the state have a say in economic policy? 30 The state should have no say in economic policy 3 no answer TREND FAILURE OF ECONOMY How often do you think that business/industry is to blame on decisive issues? Often, rarely or never? can t decide / refuse to answer never center position The state should have a full say in economic policy 8 often 38 rarely TREND FAILURE OF POLITICS Do you think that the policies of the government and the authorities in your country have failed on decisive issues? If so, in your opinion, does this happen often, rarely or never? 8 TREND NEED OF FUNDAMENTAL REFORM Please state to what extent you agree with this statement: The political system in my country is in need of fundamental reform. 0 can t decide / refuse to answer never I completely disagree I disagree in principle often rarely 3 I completely agree can t decide / refuse to answer 0 I agree in principle Sources: Credit Suisse, gfs.bern bulletin special St. Gallen Symposium Credit Suisse

5 Global Perspectives Barometer Dossier 3 sector has lost none of its fascination for people just setting out on their career: The fi nance industry attracts a far greater proportion ( percent) of young talent than any other sector; it is regarded as the most attractive employer over the next fi ve years, independently of respondents country of origin (see chart 3 on p. 3: Preferred Sector Total). The fact that the world of finance is so popular among future leaders is surprising rather than obvious, as this choice does not reflect how the Leaders of Tomorrow assess individual industries: In their evaluations, they view the telecommunications and energy sectors as holding far greater promise than the financial industry. Yet, only percent (energy) and nine percent (telecommunications), respectively, want to work in these industries. Young people also view the pharmaceutical industry as promising, but only three in a hundred want a career in this field (see chart on p. 3: Trend Promising Sector). The discrepancy between the sectors viewed as the most promising and those where young talent wants to work is explained to some degree by educational background: percent of all respondents have studied business management or economics. The topic of globalization plays an important role in the Global Perspectives Barometer 0 and is viewed positively by a majority of the Leaders of Tomorrow: percent see more opportunities than risks in global economic integration. This is nine percent less than in the first survey for the Global Perspectives Barometer in 00. The opinion that globalization brings mainly benefits has gained ground, as has the view that the pros and cons of globalization are fairly evenly balanced (see chart 0 below: Trend Globalization Concerning World). More supporters and at the same time more skeptics this development is not surprising: The financial crisis and the euro crisis have underscored the positive and negative effects of global integration. When assessing the impact of globalization not on their country of origin or even the world, but on themselves, the Leaders of Tomorrow apply different standards: On average, 8 percent view economic globalization as an opportunity for themselves and their development (see chart 0 below: Trend Globalization Concerning Individuals). Politics and Issues Are the young elite interested in politics? Yes say 9 percent of the Leaders of Tomorrow. In the aftermath of the financial crisis, the role of the state has been discussed intensively, controversially and globally. Most of the Leaders of Tomorrow think that the state should have at least a if not the final say in economic matters. A large minority of 30 percent takes the opposite view (see chart on p. 3: Trend the Role of the State in Economic Policy). On the other hand, percent of the Leaders of Tomorrow complain that their government often fails when it comes to making crucial decisions. The Leaders of Tomorrow take a far more positive view of decisionmaking in the business world; Just 8 percent think that wrong decisions are made often or fairly often (see charts and on p. 3: Trend Failure of Economy and Trend Failure of Politics). Hence, we can conclude that at the end of the day the Leaders of Tomorrow have greater confidence in the market than in politicians, but do not reject politics out of hand. Rather, the great majority of the them want to see fundamental changes in the political system of their respective country of origin (see chart 8 on p. 3: Trend Need of Fundamental Reform). Iris Kuhn-Spogat 9 TREND GLOBALIZATION CONCERNING WORLD Do you think that globalization brings more opportunities or more threats for future development? 3 0 TREND GLOBALIZATION CONCERNING INDIVIDUALS Do you think that the processes of globalization as they currently unfold, on balance bring more opportunities or more threats for future development? For you personally, globalization brings mainly opportunities mainly threats 3 more threats virtually as many opportunities as threats total China India remaining Asia West Europe East Europe North America South America rest of the world (Africa/Australia, etc.) mainly opportunities more opportunities virtually as many opportunities as threats more threats can t decide / refuse to answer 3 more opportunities Credit Suisse bulletin special St. Gallen Symposium

6 38 Dossier Global Perspectives Barometer Future Global Elite Swiss Youth A Comparison Revealing results and a clash of priorities: what steams the engine of Generation Y This year, the questionnaire for the Global Perspectives Barometer survey contained a number of questions from the Credit Suisse Youth Barometer to facilitate comparisons between statements and lifestyles of Swiss youth and the future elite. By age, the difference between the two groups is not large: The young Swiss respondents are aged to, while the average age of the Leaders of Tomorrow is. years. Both groups are part of Generation Y, the first generation to grow up fully digitalized. They are digital natives, people with a digital and a real identity. Their everyday life is a fusion of the two. Digital natives not only cultivate relationships in person, but are also very adept at chatting and text-messaging via networks like Facebook; 8 percent of Swiss youth and 90 percent of the Leaders of Tomorrow are on Facebook (see chart on p. 38: Comparison Member of Facebook). The particular Internet affinity of the Leaders of Tomorrow is clearly related to the fact that today it is impossible to study for a degree without a command of the new media. FILTER: COMPARISON INTEREST ABOUT DAILY EVENTS Which of these topics are of interest to you on a daily basis? politics business culture regional news sports weather people/vips music new products, brands events, parties, going out computer, games 9 in % residents between and years /, who inform themselves at least seldom Global Perspectives Barometer 0 Switzerland Youth Barometer How Powerful Is Facebook? It is natural for Generation Y to be on Facebook, regardless of background or ambitions. Is this changing the world? 8 percent of the young elite answered this question with yes, whereas only one in two young Swiss share this view. It is possible that the difference would not have been so pronounced if the two groups had been surveyed at the same time. The Swiss youth were surveyed before and the future elite after the start of the upheavals in the Arab world in which Facebook has played a significant and wellpublicized role. Less surprising, although no less impressive, are the results of the survey on daily events. In this respect, Leaders of Tomorrow and Swiss youth in general have completely different interests: The future elite consume primarily political, economic and cultural news. This is at most of marginal interest to Swiss youth in general. Instead, they want to know what is happening with the weather, in the music scene and in sports topics the Leaders of Tomorrow generally don t seem to care about much (see adjacent chart : Comparison Interests About Daily Events). The information sources of the two comparative groups are also completely different. Swiss youth prefer to leaf through free newspapers and listen to newscasts on TV. By contrast, by far the most important information sources of the future elite are the news pages and homepages of daily newspapers, which are much more important for them than conventional media such as TV, radio and print editions of daily papers (see chart on p. 39: Comparison Most Important Source of Information). Family Not So Important for the Global Elite So, what do digital natives value? The surveys reveal interesting differences between the randomly chosen young men and women and the young people who are among the Leaders of Tomorrow: They have different priorities. In their respective life concepts, the future elite attach far less importance to family and friends than Swiss youth do. They give absolute priority to enjoying life to the fullest. Of course, working hard is also part of their life, but not until they drop. The young elite want space for creativity and the opportunity to realize the goals they have set to themselves. Compared to Swiss youth, the future elite in the Global Perspectives Barometer present an image of hard work, measured gratification and emotional independence. Iris Kuhn-Spogat Sources: Credit Suisse, gfs.bern bulletin special St. Gallen Symposium Credit Suisse

7 Global Perspectives Barometer Dossier 39 COMPARISON STATEMENT ABOUT FACEBOOK Please tell me if the following statements about Facebook (FB) apply to you personally or are true in your opinion. 3 COMPARISON MEMBER OF FACEBOOK Are you a member of Facebook? changing the world 8 data can fall in the hands of wrong people 8 8 events and parties superficial 3 Switzerland Youth Barometer 00 Global Perspectives Barometer 0 Global Perspectives Barometer 0 Switzerland Youth Barometer 00 yes not anymore no in % residents between and years /, definitely the case, generally ly the case in % residents between and years / COMPARISON MOST IMPORTANT SOURCE OF INFORMATIONION Which is the most important source for you? COMPARISON MOST IMPORTANT CONCEPTIONS Each individual person has certain ideas that determine their life and behavior. When you think about what you strive for in your life, how important are the following things for your personality? Switzerland Youth Barometer 00 Global Perspectives Barometer 0 Switzerland Youth Barometer 00 3 Global Perspectives Barometer 0 don t know / no answer weekly magazines purchased newspapers radio TV free newspapers Internet: blogs and mail services Internet: social networks Internet: Facebook/Twitter/Myspace news apps on smartphone Internet: news pages / newspaper pages don t know / no answer achieving set goals with hard work developing my imagination and creativity looking good having lots of money gaining sexual experiences being independent of other people being able to live according to my religious and spiritual values conserving / protecting the environment living and acting responsibly getting a good education and / or further training seeing as much of the world as possible having an exciting job being respected as a person enjoying life to the full having friends I can count on leading a good familiy life / relationship in % residents between and years /, who inform themselves at least seldom in % residents between and years / Credit Suisse bulletin special St. Gallen Symposium

8 0 Dossier Global Perspectives Barometer Granting Access to a Young Global Elite Philip Erzinger, CEO of the St. Gallen Symposium, on the Global Perspectives Barometer, the creation of the Knowledge Pool and the technological milestones of this year s symposium: St. Gallen Connect. Interview: Iris Kuhn-Spogat bulletin: Mr Erzinger, last year saw the repositioning of the Leaders of Tomorrow segment of the St. Gallen Sympo sium. What was the reason for this? Philip Erzinger: The idea came from us. On the occasion of the 0th anniversary of the St. Gallen Symposium, we decided to increase the performance density among the Leaders of Tomorrow. In the past, this group was made of 00 students from around the world who qualified through our global essay competition known as the St. Gallen Wings of Excellence Award. Now, with the support of Credit Suisse, we have introduced the socalled Knowledge Pool. So today, a group of 00 talented young people at master s level continue to qualify by ways of the essay competition, while another 00 are nominated via the Knowledge Pool by students of the organisation of the St. Gallen Symposium. Knowledge Pool who swims in it? A selection of carefully appointed future decision-makers. In order to be selected, candidates must meet at least four criteria: They must be 9 years old or younger, have an academic background, have a relationship to relevant topics of the Symposium, and most importantly, they must already have experience in either research or business. Where do you find these young successful people? Google? Obviously it would not be possible via Google as we aim to introduce the current management generation to a future mana gement generation that extends beyond national borders, universities, industries and fields of activity that are highly diversified and are therefore truly unique. This is why much more than a mere Google search is imperative in the selection process. Thanks to our essay competition we have created a global Philip Erzinger, CEO of the St. Gallen Symposium. network of relationships with universities and professors in recent years. We receive recommendations from that network or we obtain them from our advisors in various different markets such as India and Japan for example. Additionally, we engage in comprehensive proprietary research with our team in St. Gallen and are supported by a newly introduced Advisory Board advising the St. Gallen Symposium on its global search for talent. Who is ultimately invited to the symposium? The four criteria mentioned before are key. As previously mentioned, we want diversity among the Leaders of Tomorrow and will achieve this with the combination of the e say competition and the Knowledge Pool. The positive results of last year bear witness to the success of this approach. The launch of the Global Perspectives Barometer allows for unique insights into the views of our Leaders of Tomorrow. This important survey of our global target group of future managers is only possible due to the generous support of Credit Suisse. Are you satisfied with the results? Very. We conducted the first barometer in 00 on a relatively small scale. This year, however, we were able to make a quantum leap. Nevertheless, we are still in the early stages of the development of this project and as we fine-tune the barometer, its overall relevance will increase. What about incentives or a prize? We did not do that this year because it didn t feel right. The incentive translates into the privilege of belonging to this global network of Leaders of Tomorrow and of being able to take part in the St. Gallen Symposium. What will the next innovation be? As an initiative for students, the St. Gallen Symposium lives from the innovative drive of its participants. The Global Perspectives Barometer is a good example of this. But we intend to go even further. Next month will see the launch of another new feature, St. Gallen Connect, a proprietary network that is exclusively accessible to participants of the symposium. Making contact with the elite of tomorrow has never been easier: Today s managers can use a handheld device to gain an idea of the Leaders of Tomorrow and to get in touch with them. I m eager to see how this will be received. With this innovation we are granting access to the young global elite. Something like this has never existed before on this scale. < Photo: St. Gallen Symposium bulletin special St. Gallen Symposium Credit Suisse