IRS Regional Brief June-July 2008 No. 8

Transcription

1 IRS Regional Brief June-July 2008 No. 8 India-Pakistan Peace Process Afghanistan Dr. Shaheen Akhtar Research Fellow Arshi Saleem Hashmi Research Analyst Institute of Regional Studies Islamabad

2 IRS Regional Brief India-Pakistan Peace Process June-July 2008 Dr. Shaheen Akhtar India-Pakistan Peace Process During the months of June and July the peace process came under stress after a series of terror incidents in India, coupled with rising incidents of cross-loc firing and blast in Indian embassy in Kabul on 7 July. Although the fifth round of the composite dialogue got under way with the Foreign Secretary-level talks on 21 July, no schedule for meetings on the various subjects that it covers was announced. The atmosphere at the secretary-level talks was tense with the Indian side expressing anger and the Pakistani side being on the defensive. Indian foreign secretary Shivshankar Menon observed: Unfortunately, there have been several issues in the recent past which have vitiated the atmosphere and the composite dialogue process is under stress. (1) He asserted that recent incidents of Line of Control (LoC) firings, cross-border terrorism, incitement to violence through public statements [in Jammu and Kashmir] have vitiated the atmosphere. (2) Pakistan foreign secretary Salman Bashir assured his Indian counterpart that his country was ready to address India s misgivings if its shares evidence and intelligence in its possession. It is worrisome to point fingers at Pakistan in absence of any truth and credible information. He asserted that Pakistan was not bound to prove its credentials to prove it was fighting terrorism. Pakistan is not on probation. We don t have to prove our credentials to anybody. Pakistan is not epicentre of terrorism. We are victims of terrorism. (3) However both sides agreed to use all existing measures to ensure that the ceasefire is maintained. (4) The Kabul blast also clouded the first meeting between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani on the sidelines of the SAARC summit in Colombo on 2 August The Indian leader reiterated his government s stance that violations of LoC ceasefire and allegations of Pakistan s involvement in the Indian embassy blast had put the entire peace process under question. Gilani offered to conduct an independent investigation and said he would like to get to the root of the matter. (5) He asked the Indians to share any evidence they had to support the allegations. Gilani told Singh that Pakistan attached immense importance to the ceasefire and saw it as the most important confidencebuilding measure. The two leaders agreed that the peace process should not be affected by these snags and that the two countries should continue working for improving their ties for the sake of peace and stability of the entire region. It is believed that United States Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher played a significant role in getting the two leaders to meet. (6) It should be noted that during his visit to US Yousuf Raza Gilani was reminded of his responsibilities when the White House in a fact sheet issued after his meeting with President George W. Bush emphasised Pakistan s obligation to protect its neighbours. In a significant departure from past practice, the fact sheet did not specify Afghanistan as the neighbour that needs to be protected. (7) Despite rising tension on the LoC, Pakistan sounded optimistic. On 29 June

3 2 before the Kabul blast, during his visit to New Delhi, Pakistan foreign minister Shah Mehmud Qureshi claimed that India and Pakistan were close to resolving the Siachen issue, adding that finding a solution to the Sir Creek issue was also possible. (8) Giving examples of European Union and ASEAN, he underlined that the two countries needed to build on commonalities to tap the huge potential that had remained unexploited for 60 years. All political players and the people in both countries were supporting the peace process. This was the right environment to move forward. He observed that the governments of the two countries should translate this environment into practical steps, and that If we fail to grab this opportunity, we will be losers. (9) Despite Indian accusations, Pakistan s political leadership expressed its desire to build strong and friendly relations with India and Afghanistan. LoC heats up The peace process came under stress from the incidents of firing on the LoC. There was an increase in such incidents and both sides accused each other for violating the ceasefire. According to Indian sources there were 19 incidents of firing on LoC since January 2008 and a large number of them had occurred in June and July this year. (10) On 30 July, a first ever major firing incident took place between troops of India and Pakistan in Kupwara sector since the 2003 ceasefire came into force. The firing went on for 16 hours and highlighted the tension along the LoC. Both sides are accusing each other for building new posts and bunkers near the LoC and the working boundary in Jammu and Kashmir. Both claimed the clash occurred on their land, accusing each other s troops of entering their territory. India claimed the Pakistan troops crossed 200 metres the Indian side objecting to construction of a military post near the LoC, resulting in firing in Nowgam sector of Kupwara district that killed an Indian soldier. (11) Pakistan rejected Indian accusation that its troops crossed the LoC and said it were the Indian troops that crossed over to establish a forward post in the area on the Pakistani side of the LoC to which Pakistani soldiers objected and Indian troops started indiscriminate and unprovoked firing. (12) Both sides had agreed in 2006 not to construct new posts along the LoC. The DGMOs (Directors General of Military Operations) of the two countries spoke on phone in the wake of the firing incident, followed by a flag meeting between the company commanders of the two armies to discuss the issue of violation of ceasefire. Pranab Mukerjee termed the incidents of firing unfortunate and urged on Pakistan not to vitiate the atmosphere (13) that may disturb the peace process. The firing incidents have vitiated the environment for the peace process as India has linked it with cross-loc infiltration. Cross-LoC infiltration India has connected cross-loc ceasefire violations to Pakistan s attempt to boost infiltration. Indian intelligence claimed that the Pakistan army has constituted border area teams (BAT) consisting of specially trained soldiers to further facilitate the cross-border infiltration of trained militants. (14) Lt- Gen R.K. Karwal, General Officer in Commanding of the 16 Corps, accused the Pakistani army of resorting to unprovoked firing. He told the media: You can see that the Pakistani army is a bit desperate, there are large number of training camps and a large number of trained terrorists waiting to cross over to this side of the border and when they find that their attempts to infiltrate are not successful, they resort to unprovoked

4 3 firing. (15) Indian Defence Minister A.K. Antony talking tough said India was fully prepared to deal with any instance of infiltration by the Pakistani army, though adequate restraint was being maintained to prevent escalation of tension. He said keeping in view the increased attempts of infiltration, the counter-infiltration grid has been suitably strengthened by the Army to check such incidents. (16) The firing incidents came at a time when tension in India was mounting over the Kabul blast and serial blasts in Bangalore and Ahmadabad and recovery of bombs in Surat in Gujarat. Terrorism The issue of terrorism bounced back in India-Pakistan relations especially after the Kabul Indian embassy blast, the incidents of terror at Bangalore (25 July), Ahmadabad (26 July ) and recovery of bombs in Surat, Gujarat. The Kabul blast also brought the issue of terrorism to the forefront of India- Pakistan-Afganistan relations. The blast killed 54 peolpe including two senior Indian officials. Afghan President Hamid Karazai s statement that Pakistan s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) had a hand in the embassy blast was followed by an angry statement fom Indian National Security Advisor M K Narayanan on 14 July saying : we do not suspect but have fair amount of intelligence on the involvement of ISI of Pakistan. He asserted the ISI need to be destroyed. We have made this point whenever we have had a chance through interlocutors across the world. There might have been some tactical restraint for some time; obviously that restraint is no longer present. (17) Later at the foreign secretary level talks, Shivshankar Menon also hinted at ISI involvement in the Kabul blast saying : Our investigations so far point towards a few elements in Pakistan to be behind the blast, but refused to identify these elements saying investigations were continuing. Indian High Commissioner in Pakistan Satyabrata Pal met PPP leader Asif Ali Zardari on 31 July and stated that he spoke to him on the full range of what we are engaged in with his government. (18) India also decided to raise the strength of its paramilitary force in Afghanistan, Around 400 Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) are posted in Kabul and on the Zaranj-Delaram road. It is also believed that India is also augmenting its intelligence in Afghanistan, through generous spending as well as trained personnel. (19) Even before the Kabul blast reports appearing in the Indian media said that India would provide to Pakistan irrefutable evidence about the increasing activities of the ISI and various Pakistan-based ultra groups in the Indian-occupied Kashmir to sabotage the coming assembly elections in the state when the joint anti-terror mechanism between the two countries helds its meeting. (20) It should be noted that little-known group, Indian Mujahideen, claimed the responsibility for the Bangalore blasts. The Indian media also pointed its finger at the Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI). Although India did not officially blame the bomb blasts in Indian cities on Pakistan, the Indian media has accused Bangladesh-based Huji and Pakistan-based LeT in most of the incidents taking place in India. (21) Karachi also had a series of blasts earlier in the month, but Pakistan did not accuse India. Joint anti-terror mechanism meeting The third meeting of the Joint Anti-Terrorism Mechanism between Pakistan and India was held on 24 June 2008 in an atmosphere spoiled by fresh incidents of terrorism in India as well as the Kabul blast. According to

5 4 media reports, both sides exchanged fresh information about terrorism incidents, including blasts in Jaipur, Ajmer, Hyderabad, Varanasi, Mumbai and Delhi and the bombing of Samjhauta Express. They reviewed the steps taken on the information shared at the earlier meetings. (22) Pakistan foreign office spokesman stated: The two sides agreed to continue to work to identify counter-terrorism measures, assist in investigations through exchange of specific information and for preventing violence and terrorist acts. (23) They also agreed to improve the quality of exchange of information and the level of their counter- terrorism. JATM has emerged as a shock absorber which pre-empts any derailment of India-Pakistan dialogue process. Kishenganga project talks A meeting of the India-Pakistan Permanent Indus Waters Commission was held at the end of July. However, talks could not move forward on the issue of 330 MW Kishanganga hydroelectric project. There was no convergence of views and both countries stuck to their viewpoint. Pakistan has raised serious objection over the project which is being constructed by India on the Neelum River. In the meantime, India has accelerated the work on the project as it wants to complete it before major work was completed on the Chinese-assisted 960-MW Neelum-Jhelum project downstream in Azad Kashmir. The Kashmir Times reported that the Indian Ministry of Power had sought fresh financial approval from the Indian cabinet to accelerate the work on the Kishanganga project. Union Minister of State for Power Jairam Ramesh said his ministry was seeking a fresh approval from the Indian Cabinet Committee of Economic Affairs (CCEA) to complete the project. The Indian cabinet had already approved Rs 2,239 crore for the project, but due to the escalation in the cost, more money was needed to complete it. (24) According to the Indus Waters Treaty, whoever builds the project first will have the rights on the river water. Kishenganga or the Neelum River is the largest tributary of the Jhelum. Pakistan believes that this project will not only impact its hydropower potential but will also adversely affect agriculture in the Neelum valley and Muzaffaraabd district. Though India has minimized the storage limits by reducing dam height in July 2007, the project envisages diverting the Neelum. Under the plan the tributary instead of joining the Jhelum at Muzaffarabad will be diverted to fall into the main river at the Wullar Lake. The project involves construction of a metre-high concrete-faced rockfill dam and an underground powerhouse. (25) Pakistan s Indus Waters Commissioner Syed Jamaat Ali Shah says Pakistan will receive 27 per cent less water due to the diversion of the Neelum or Kishenganga river to the Wullar Lake. Not only environment and ecology, our domestic and agriculture usages would also suffer. (26) On India s contention that Pakistan was giving exaggerated figures for its agricultural usages, Pakistan offered to host an Indian delegation to verify usages in AJK and other areas. He indicated that Pakistan could use the option of involving a third party if the issue of Kishenganga issue was not resolved. He said since Kishenganga involved both technical and legal issues it can be referred to both the neutral expert as well as the Court of Arbitration as provided in the IWT, unlike Baglihar, which had involved only technical issues. (27) Meanwhile, the first phase of Baglihar power project is scheduled to be commissioned in September Two other phases of 150 MW each are scheduled to start generating electricity in October and November

6 5 respectively. On 30 July a team of experts from Pakistan led by Pakistan Indus Waters Commissioner Syed Jamaat Ali Shah inspected the work at the Baglihar dam as well as its reservoir and expressed satisfaction at the work going on at the project. Growing economic relations Pakistan has taken initiatives that would boost economic relations between the two countries. Significantly, it has decided to open up its market to India. The main thrust of its new trade policy is liberalising trade with India. Pakistan is in the process of gradually liberalising bilateral trade with India, said Pakistan s new Commerce Minister Ahmed Mukhtar. Pakistan s new trade policy for makes a directional change that will favour India. The Daily Times described it as crossing one big psychological barrier and added that the Trade Minister had actually given MFN status to India without saying so when he clearly said that Pakistan will benefit from the much larger Indian economy. (28) The official sources estimated that Pakistan had diverted its global trade worth $ billion towards India following inclusion of 438 new importable items in the positive list during the past 10 months. (29) Under the new trade policy Pakistan has allowed the import of CNG buses from India. It is part of the 136 other items that have been added to the positive list for imports from India. With this the number of items that the government permits for imports from India has gone up to 1,938. (30) The new trade policy will substitute imports from other more expensive sources to the tune of $ 2.8 bn. (31) Pakistan has also allowed imports of fuel oil, diesel, machinery such as paddy harvesters, rice driers, and mining equipment. In addition to the expanded list of permitted imports, Pakistan will also allow the import of raw materials and machinery not on this positive list for manufacturing units set up under its DTRE (Duty and Tax Remission for Export) schemes. In addition, cotton yarn and stainless steel will be allowed in by road, through the Wagah border, from India. Presently these two items are sent only by train. Regarding the import of buses, the commerce minister said a decision had been taken that if Indian manufacturers of CNG buses made a firm commitment to establish manufacturing of such buses in Pakistan, his ministry might allow the import of 10 buses by road via Wagah from each possible investor as test consignments. (32) Pakistan plans to import 8,000 buses for public sector transport in Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad. The government has already made the import of CNG buses duty-free. Removal of the earlier 15 per cent duty was announced in the budget. Pakistan has also invited at least three Indian companies Tata, Reliance and Essar to a meeting of potential investors in the power sector to discuss the Thar coal power project. For years Pakistan has been resisting the demand to open Pakistani port and border to Indian goods for both economic and political reasons. The political argument has been that India just wants progress in trade ties which will lead to putting the Kashmir issue on the backburner. The economic argument has been that even though India has given MFN status to Pakistan, it has retained so many non-trade barriers that practically it is not possible for Pakistani exporters to sell their goods in India. This has led to widening of the bilateral trade gap which is expected to rise after the new

7 6 items are added to the positive list. Official figures quoted by daily Dawn showed that Pakistan s tradable list with India had 591 items in 1997, but it has been enhanced to 1,938 items in The government added 302 items to the list in October 2007 and 136 items in July This expansion has widened Pakistan s trade deficit with India to $893 million in from $ million in With the substantial expansion in the tradable list, the deficit is likely to reach $1.5 billion in , when the figures are finalised. The figures for July-March showed Pakistan s trade deficit with India stood at $1.095 billion. Pakistan exported $200 million worth of commodities to India in the July-March period of , while the value of imported goods reached $1,295 million during this period. Pakistan s exports to India stay stagnated between $200 million to $400 million despite the fact that New Delhi has granted MFN status to Islamabad. (33) Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline There was substantive headway on the IPI gas pipeline project. On 28 June, India and Pakistan resolved commercial differences impeding implementation of the $7.4 billion gas pipeline from Iran. Indian Oil Minister Murli Deora after meeting Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi stated that both countries had reached an agreement on the principles of charging transit fee and that India remains fully committed to the project. The project, which aims to transport gas from Iran to Pakistan and India, was first mooted in 1994 but has been stalled by a series of disputes over prices and transit fees. Shah Mehmood Qureshi assured India that Pakistan would provide fool-proof security for the planned 2,600-kilometre pipeline, expected to pass through the volatile Balochistan region. (34) Pakistan has also agreed to India s demand that Iran hand over custody of gas on the India-Pakistan border and not on Iran- Pakistan border as suggested by Tehran to cut transit risk through Pakistan. (35) It seems the project has overcome the commercial, technical and political obstacles and is moving towards final agreement Prisoners issue The prisoners issue continued to figure in India-Pakistan relations. Pakistan lodged a protest with India over deaths of another two Pakistani prisoners, including an old woman, in Indian jails and demanded a thorough probe into the matter. Bodies of Rashidan Bibi, 60, and Abdul Aleem, 28, were handed over to Pakistan by the Indian authorities at the Wagah border. Aleem had been in Indian custody since 2001 and Rashidan was arrested by Indian authorities in The causes of their deaths are not known. The Foreign Office took up the issue with the Indian high commission in Islamabad and the Pakistani high commissioner in New Delhi with the Indian external affairs ministry. (36) Meanwhile, a delegation of Indian members of the India-Pakistan Judicial Committee on Prisoners visited Pakistan (9-14 June) to meet Indian prisoners in Pakistani jails and discuss modalities with the Pakistani side for early release of prisoners in both countries. The Judicial Committee recommended to both the governments that all the prisoners who had completed their terms and whose national status had been confirmed by their respective high commissions should be released immediately. (37) According to a joint statement issued by the Foreign Office following the

8 7 visit of members of the Indian chapter of the Committee to Pakistani jails in Lahore, Karachi and Rawalpindi the Committee noted that lists of prisoners exchanged by the two governments on 31 March 2008 were not complete and did not mention names and details of all detainees/prisoners. Given the deaths of four Pakistani prisoners in Indian jails and one Indian national in Pakistani prison, this year, the Committee recommended taking immediate steps by either country where a national of the other country dies while in custody. The Committee recommended that the high commission of the other country should be immediately informed in writing of the death of the prisoner and in this regard immediate instructions be issued by the federal/central governments to the home departments and inspectors-general of all the provinces/states for strict compliance. (38) The Committee also recommended that necessary instructions might also be issued for supply of copies of inquest or inquiry reports, if any, and post-mortem reports in respect of such deceased prisoners to the high commission of the other country. Cross-LoC CBMs Despite accusations and counter accusations India-Pakistan moved ahead on consolidating cross-loc CBMs. The Working Group on Cross-LoC CBMs met on 19 July and discussed effective implementation of existing cross- LoC measures which were approved at the foreign secretary level talks held on 21 July in New Delhi. A number of CBMs announced included: 1) introduction of a triple entry permit for cross-loc travel; 2) Simplification of procedures for getting the permit which at present takes at least two years. 3) An increase in the frequency of the two cross-loc bus services Srinagar-Muzafafraabd and Poonch-Rawalakot on weekly instead of fortnightly basis. (39) The Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus is scheduled to ply every week from August 21 while the frequency of the Poonch-Rawalkot bus service is to be increased to weekly from August 25. As regards the triple entry permits, a separate form has been finalised and all three entries will have to be from the same crossing point. The facility would be automatically available to senior citizens and accompanying spouses. Both sides have also decided to take steps to reduce processing time for applications, hold monthly coordination meetings of the designated authorities, with a provision to convene urgent meetings whenever needed. The designated authorities will also reconcile data regarding crossings regularly. It was also decided to allow a maximum of 60 persons per crossing. The designated authorities will also start exchanging applications for permits by from 1 October that will be required to be backed up by hard copies. Also from 1 October clearance will be processed within a week in case of emergencies like death of close relative across LoC, but the stay in such cases would be limited to a maximum seven days. (40) Cross-LoC trade At the foreign secretary level talks, India and Pakistan decided to open a service on Srinagar-Muzaffarabad route from 21 August. A team of high Indian civil and security official has reportedly visited the Kaman Bridge and Salamabad of Uri in Baramulla district of north Kashmir. The team reviewed the infrastructural arrangements for truck terminal for cross-loc trade. (41) India and Pakistan have already exchanged a list of commodities that can be traded with zero-tariff regime. The Chambers of Commerce from both sides of LoC would also exchange visits as early as possible to

9 8 make recommendations on modalities of the trade. Kashmir The new PPP-led government has stressed on resolution of the Kashmir issue to the satisfaction of Kashmiris as well as India and Pakistan. On 4 June, Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani in a meeting with Azad Jammu and Kashmir President Raja Zulqarnain Khan stated that Pakistan wanted an expeditious, just and peaceful resolution of the Kashmir dispute in keeping with the aspirations of the people of Kashmir. He asserted: Sustainable peace in South Asia cannot be achieved without the settlement of the Kashmir dispute, which has bedevilled the relations between Pakistan and India ever since the two countries became independent. (42) On 17 June Yousuf Raza Gilani in a meeting with Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF) Chairman Yasin Malik expressed the resolve to continue to extend unwavering moral, diplomatic and political support to the cause of Kashmir. (43) He underscored that Pakistan had always supported the inclusion of all stakeholders in the dialogue process and believed that participation of the true and genuine representatives of the Kashmiri people would ensure just and durable settlement, which would be acceptable to the people of Pakistan. The Prime Minister in a meeting with Hurriyat delegation said his government was committed to supporting the just struggle of Kashmiris and desired a peaceful solution to the issue in keeping with the aspirations of the people of Kashmir. He decaled: "We will continue to extend political, diplomatic and moral support to the Kashmiris in their just cause until a just and honourable settlement is reached in accordance with the wishes of the Kashmiri people. The prime minister said Kashmir remained the core issue between India and Pakistan, adding that Pakistan would never accept any solution unless the people of Kashmir accepted it. He said Pakistan was convinced that a settlement without the backing of the Kashmiri people would not be durable and sustainable. The PPP leader Asif Zardari also assured the delegation that the Kashmir issue would be resolved in accordance with the aspirations of the people of Kashmir. He emphasised that the PPP and the Hurriyat shared a bond of blood and PPP founder Zulfikar Ali Bhutto had said that the party's existence starts with the Kashmir issue. The PPP would adhere to the vision of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and Benazir Bhutto and, therefore, was bound to follow them. He also underscored that: The freedom movements of Kashmir and Pakistan are correlated. (44) On 29 June, in a statement at an international conference in London on India and Pakistan-Designing a New Future, organised by Tehlka in London, PPP leader Asif Ali Zardari supported an autonomous Kashmir running much of its own affairs. He called for viable peace in Kashmir and said that India-Pakistan relations should be creatively re-discovered. (45) He underscored that a consensus was developing on issues of peace and security in the region. He pointed out that the coalition partners in Pakistan had signed a Charter of Democracy that committed both parties to friendship and peace with India. He also said that a Commission can be established between the two countries and the leaders of Kashmir themselves to work out what should be done in foreign and defence affairs. He said, however, that while working out the solution to Kashmir issue, we should not allow slow progress on it to be an obstacle to work on other cooperative matters. (46)

10 9 Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi, speaking at the Brookings Institution emphasized the need for an out-of-the- box solution of the Kashmir dispute by going beyond the confidence building measures (CBMs) and engaging in serious dialogue to address the real issues. He observed: We have to look out of the box...we have to look at innovative ways of resolution [to the Kashmir issue]. We have our minds open to such issues. He pointed out that Pakistan had shown flexibility and there was a general feeling and a public perception in Pakistan that a matching response should come from India. (47) Situation in IHK deteriorates At the end of June, the internal political and security situation in the Indianoccupied Kashmir had deteriorated in the wake of controversy over the transfer of land to Amarnath Shrine Board and is likely to influence the upcoming state assembly elections. In fact, the People s Democratic Party (PDP) pulled out of the IHK coalition government (28 June) in protest against the transfer of land to Amarnath Shrine Board, reducing the Congress-led government to a minority. This led to the resignation of chief minister Ghulam Nabi Azad, dissolution of the Kashmir state assembly and imposition of governor s rule in the state. Fresh assembly polls are due in October as the term of house expires on 2 November. Amarnath Agitation The Amarnath agitation rocked Indian-occupied Kashmir with the Valley opposing the transfer of land to Shri Amarnath Shrine Board (SASB) while Jammu supporting it. The land transfer controversy originated from the state government's acceptance (26 May) of then governor and Chairman of Shrine Board General S.K. Sinha's request to government to allot 100 acres of forestland to the Board for housing Amarnath pilgrims. The state government transferred the land to SASB. The move by the government to allot land to foreigners caused serious dissatisfaction among the Kashmiri Muslim population in the Valley. The controversy united the hardliners and moderates in the All Parties Hurriyat Conference ( APHC). They termed the move a systematic plan of the Indian government to reduce the Muslims to a minority. They launched protests against the decision that undermined the constitutional stipulation that only people of Jammu and Kashmir could own land in the state. The moderate Hurriyat leader, Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, stated that it was a devious move to change the demographic composition of the state. (48) While hardline APHC leader Syed Ali Gilani of Tehreek-i-Hurriyat asserted that it was a conspiracy to settle non-local Hindus in the Valley to convert Muslims into a minority. (49) The PDP and National Conference also strongly opposed the transfer of land to Shri Amarnath Shrine Board and urged that the government revoke the decision. Given the sharp reaction in the Valley, on 29 June the new governor N.N. Vohra in his capacity as SASB s head withdrew the request and on 1 July the Azad government cancelled its land transfer order which triggered agitation and violence by Hindus in the Jammu region. Hindu agitators wanted the land to be transferred back to the shrine board. The agitation for and against the transfer of land in Valley and Jammu took a communal colour as agitators in Jammu attacked Muslims. The agitation led to a 13- day bandh (strike) by Amarnath Yatra Sangrash Samiti (AYSS) and six days curfew in Jammu, Kathua, Udhampur and the surrounding areas and the killing of 15 people. Besides, RSS affiliated Amarnath Yatra Sangrash

11 10 Samiti (AYSS) supported by Shiv Sena and Bajrang Dal cadres and some of BJP leaders launched economic blockade of the Muslim-majority Kashmir Valley by stopping movement of trucks carrying essential goods along the 300-km-long Jammu-Srinagar highway. The agitation took a turn for the worse when Kashmiri fruit growers, worried at the prospect of their apple crop rotting in trucks threatened to cross the LoC and sell their produce in Pakistan through the Muzaffarabad route. The issue will have a profound impact on the forthcoming assembly elections with the BJP trying to cash in on Hindu sentiments, further communalising the IHK polity. BJP maintains that the only solution to the problem is that the government hand back the land to SASB. While the Congress party could face severe consequences in the elections, particularly in the Jammu region. The PDP will not be able to wash its hands as two of its ministers deputy chief minister and forest minister had initially approved the transfer. The land controversy has reignited another uprisng in Kashmir that has pushed the non-violent struggle of the Kashmiris to the forefront. An article in The Kashmir Times, Kashmir: Another public uprising, observed: The protests are reminiscent of the protests witnessed in the early-90s when people would throng the streets and the Valley reverberated with anti-india, pro-freedom and pro-pakistan slogans. All the claims of New Delhi viz-a-viz the situation in Kashmir have been given a fitting reply by the furious mobs who hoisted green flags atop the Clock Tower in the heart of Srinagar city. The changed mood of protestors has already discounted the theory that the situation in Kashmir is limping towards normalcy, as has been claimed ad-nauseum by New Delhi. The situation on ground clearly reveals that New Delhi has failed to win over the hearts and minds of Kashmiris. (50) On the other hand protesters in Jammu have revived the demand for separate statehood for the region. Kashmiris and the peace process Pro-India groups On 7 June, Deputy Chief Minister and senior PDP leader Muzaffar Hussain Baig stated that the peace process had reached to an irreversible phase, adding that it required a vigorous push forward. (51) He observed that restoration of normalcy in the state had restored sense of security among the people who were yearning for it. The people had now become equal stakeholders in the development process. On 16 July, People s Democratic Party (PDP) Patron Mufti Mohammad Sayeed urged : "The resolution process must now essentially gain momentum to tide over the fresh wave of disillusionment and alienation". He underlined that in the emerging scenario, sub-continent's security and stability would largely depend on how the leadership of India and Pakistan confronts the challenges ahead. He strongly felt that the political aspect of the Kashmir problem will be much easier to resolve, if due economic space for a potentially rich place like Jammu and Kashmir is ensured in SAARC paradigm. (52) Mufti Sayeed also welcomed the decision of running the Srinagar-Muzafarabad and Poonch-Rawalakote bus services on weekly basis. Pro-Freedom groups An APHC delegation during its visit to Pakistan and AJK at the end of June demanded that India show flexibility in peace talks with Pakistan and include Kashmiris in these negotiations. Speaking at a news conference

12 11 APHC Chairman Mirwaiz Umer Farooq said a structured Pak-India dialogue with the participation of Kashmiris was the key to making progress in settling the Kashmir dispute. He emphasised: The most important thing is that a structured dialogue is missing from the talks on Kashmir. There should be a comprehensive line of action in an institutionalised manner, including Kashmiris, as several bilateral efforts have failed to deliver. (53) He rejected the idea of making the Line of Control permanent border between Pakistan and India. He also made it clear any solution under the Indian Constitution would not be acceptable to the people of Kashmir. He strongly advocated demilitarisation of occupied Kashmir and said the Pakistan leadership had assured them that the matter of repeal of special laws, given to Indian Army, would be taken up with India during the dialogue process. Mirwaiz Umer Farooq in an interview with CNN-IBN s Devil s Advocate programme said Pakistan and India could afford to put Kashmir on the back burner. No government in Pakistan can sideline the Kashmir issue, as long as the Kashmir issue is alive in the hearts and minds of people in Pakistan. He underscored: The time has come when Pakistan has to think in terms of... what is in the interest of the Kashmiris rather than what Pakistan will get out of Kashmir. (54) The Mirwaiz reiterated that Musharraf s four-point proposal was key to solving the Kashmir problem. If we have to move forward it is in and around the four-point proposal. He observed: I don t think there is a change in Pakistan s policy but definitely in approach, and which I feel is a welcome sign. JKLF leader Yasin Malik during his visit to Pakistan also stressed that resolution of the Kashmir dispute would bring regional peace that would ensure development and substantive cut in the defence budgets of both countries. (55) Yasin Malik told Dawn that in his meeting with Mr Bashir he emphasised the need to accelerate the political resolution of the Kashmir issue, lest people begin to lose faith in the CBMs. I told him that we welcome the CBMs. But there should also be progress on the resolution of the political issue. (56) AJK Prime Minister Sardar Attique Ahmed in his meeting with Hurriyat leaders said that the LoC should be changed into Line of Commerce and open commerce should be started. (57) He felt that the economic zone would result in free business activity in the troubled area. Hurriyat Conference (G)/Tehrik-e-Hurriyat The hardline Hurriyat Conference chairman Syed Ali Shah Geelani, slightly shifting from his earlier pro-pakistan stance has said he would accept an independent state of the entire Jammu and Kashmir in view of an indifferent approach of the Pakistan government. (58) Geelani was speaking to mediapersons at the Central Press Club of Muzaffarabd in AJK in a telephonic press conference from Srinagar. Geelani, who left the APHC five years ago, has not been happy with Pakistan s approach on the Kashmir issue, and has been averse to the ongoing dialogue process between Mirwaiz-led APHC and the leadership in India and Pakistan as he strongly feels that India is not serious about solving the Kashmir dispute. State assembly elections in IHK The moderate and hardline factions of Hurriyat are continuing with elections boycott as they strongly feel that elections are no solution to the

13 12 Kashmir problem. The Chairman of Hurriyat Conference (G), Syed Ali Shah Geelani said the people of Kashmir did not want the formation of government but have offered unprecedented sacrifices to free Kashmir from the occupation of India. The Hurriyat (G) has actively launched the anti-poll campaign in the valley and the question of participating in elections does not arise. (59) Hurriyat (M) has also clearly stated that it will not contest elections in any circumstances. It maintains that elections are for government formation and people of Kashmir want resolution of the Kashmir issue according to their aspirations. Senior Hurriyat Conference (M) leader Shabir Ahmad Shah also said that the there was no way that Hurriyat (M) would participate in elections under any circumstances. Kashmiris had offered given unprecedented sacrifices for nearly two decades for a peaceful and lasting resolution of the Kashmir issue and not for formating government, which had no relevance whatsoever to the prolonged Kashmir issue. (60) Kashmir Conferences Two international conferences were held in London on Kashmir within a span of one month. One organised by the Tehlka news magazine titled: India and Pakistan Designing a New Future, (29-30 June) while the other organised by the Justice Foundation Kashmir Centre titled Visions For Peace (2 July) in the House of Commons. Those who attended the conference included politicians, scholars, opinion-makers, former military generals, and members of civil society. In the Tehlka conference, the thrust of discussion was on ensuring peace in the region, ending mutual suspicion and distrust, opening borders to allow greater people-to-people contact and resolving the Kashmir dispute to the satisfaction of all the stakeholders. (61) The Visions For Peace conference resolved that the right of self-determination was an inalienable and non-negotiable right of the people of Jammu and Kashmir and they should be allowed to exercise it to ensure peace in the region in particular and the world in general. The conference called for setting up an international commission to look into human rights violations in the state, particularly the issue of disappearances and discoveries of mass graves. It also called for demilitarisation on both the sides of the ceasefire line, declaring Jammu and Kashmir a non-nuclear zone. (62) The conference stressed that dialogue between India and Pakistan on Kashmir should be speeded up and involve Kashmiris political as well as the armed resistance leadership. It urged the release of all political prisoners and repealing of all draconian laws in force in the state. Opinion poll on Kashmir A survey by the WorldPublicOpinion.org, a project run by the University of Maryland, United States, reveals that a majority of people in both countries want resolution of the Kashmir issue in accordance with the aspirations of the people of the state. In India the opinion poll was conducted by a reputed agency C-Voter, while in Pakistan A. C. Nelson gathered views on behalf of the WorldPublicOpinion.org poll. In the survey, Indians and Pakistanis were asked to consider a range of possible outcomes for Jammu and Kashmir and to say whether they found them desirable, acceptable, tolerable, or unacceptable. Clay Ramsay, research director of WorldPublicOpinion.org, observed: Given the deep roots of the conflict over Kashmir, it is surprising the conflict does not muster clearly polarised majorities in Pakistan and India, falling in line behind their

14 13 governments positions Instead, many show openness to considering different possibilities for resolving the conflict. Three-quarters of Pakistanis called independence for the Muslim-majority region desirable or acceptable. While 50 per cent of Indians said the idea was unacceptable, 29 per cent said it was at least tolerable and the rest did not give any answer. Around two-thirds of Pakistanis said simply giving Indian-held Kashmir more autonomy was unacceptable. Most would prefer it to join their country or become independent. Most Indians want occupied Kashmir to remain under Indian control, either in its present status or with more autonomy. The idea of dividing the region between Pakistan and India gets little support on either side, but is also not opposed by a large majority. Similarly, around half of those surveyed on both sides said joint management by India and Pakistan was unacceptable. The problem, analysts say, is that those who oppose making concessions over Kashmir in both countries tend to be very vocal and have often driven policy making. That has made finding a solution to the crisis impossible until now. (63) Notes and References 1. Jawed Naqvi, Dialogue under stress: India, Dawn, 22 July Iftikhar Gilani, India, Pak resort to blame game : Bus to move every week across LoC, The Kashmir Times, Jammu, 22 July Ibid. 4. Peace process under stress: Menon, The Tribune, Chandigarh, 22 July Baqir Sajjad Syed, Gilani offers to probe India s allegation, Dawn, Islamabad, 3 August Ibid. 7. Arrest this negative trend, (editorial) 31 July 2008, URL: 8. Siachen, Sir Creek issues doable : Pak, The Tribune, 29 June Ibid. 10. Respect Ceasefire, Antony tells Pakistan, The Tribune, 30 July Blame game begins, The Kashmir Times, 30 July Pakistan, India trade blame on LoC clash, The News, Islamabad, 30 July Jawed Naqvi, LoC violation unfortunate, says Mukerjee, Dawn, 30 July Tejinder Singh Sodhi, Pak army forms border teams to boost infiltration, The Tribune, 30 July Ibid. 16. Respect Ceasefire, Antony tells Pakistan, op.cit (ref 10). 17. ISI involved in Indian Embassy bombing: NSA, The Times of India, New Delhi, 14 July Nirupama Subramanian, Indian envoy, Zardari review bilateral ties, 31 July 2008, URL: Indo-Pak talks just for a day, The Kashmir Times, 19 July Ashok Tuteja, India to give Pak irrefutable evidence of ISI activities, The Tribune, 13 June Terror in Ahmedabad, The Tribune, 28 July Baqir Sajjad Syed, Accord on exchanging terror information, Dawn, Islamabad, 25 June The News 25 June Pakistan, India to prevent spread of violence, terror, Mariana Baabar 24. Iftikhar Gilani, Centre to go ahead with Kishenganga project, The Kashmir Times, Jammu, 26 July Ibid. 26. Pak okay with Baglihar but stalemate over Kishenganga, The Kashmir Times, 2 August Ibid. 28. More trade with India is good, Daily Times, Islamabad, 20 July Mubarak Zeb Khan Islamabad shifts $4.1bn global trade to Delhi, Dawn, 22 July 2008.

15 Nirupama Subramanian, Pakistan new trade policy allows FDI from India, The Hindu, New Delhi, 20 July More trade with India is good, Daily Times, 20 July Nirupama Subramanian, op.cit (ref 30). 33. Mubarak Zeb, op.cit (ref 29). 34. IPI pipeline fee dispute resolved, Dawn, 28 June Sujay Mehdudia, Breakthrough in pipeline project, The Hindu, New Delhi, 28 June Baqir Sajjad Syed, Protest lodged with India over death of prisoners, Dawn, 14 June Pak-India Judicial Committee suggests early release of prisoners, The News, 15 June Ibid. 39. Pakistan-India discuss Kashmir CBMS, Daily Times, 19 July Iftikhar Gilani. 41. Cross-LoC truck service arrangements reviewed, The Kashmir Times, 26 July Pakistan desires just resolution of Kashmir, Daily Times, 4 June Time ripe for solution to Kashmir issue: Gilani, The News, 17 June Gilani, Zardari assure APHC leaders of support on Kashmir, The News, 24 June Asif calls for autonomous Kashmir, Dawn, 30 June Zardari open to 'autonomous' Kashmir idea, The Nation, Islamabad, 29 June Pakistan for out o-of-the-box solution to Kashmir issue, The Hindu, 13 July Parthasarathy, Anti-India propaganda in J&K : Time for New Delhi to review policy, The Tribune, June 26, A sinister move, The Nation, 27 June Syed Ali Safvi, Kashmir: Another Public Uprising, The Kashmir Times, 2 July The Tribune, 7 June Peace process in irreversible phase. 52. 'Peace process must gain momentum to end disillusionment' : Mufti for demonstrative action on J&K-related CBMs, The Kashmir Times, 17 July Mumtaz Alvi, APHC demands trilateral talks on Kashmir, The News, 25 June Pakistan, India cannot put Kashmir on back burner Daily Times, 8 June Kashmir settlement vital to regional peace: Yasin, The News, 3 June Jawed Naqvi, Politics should not derail peace process: Advani, Dawn 21 July The Nation June 23, LoC should become 'Line of Commerce. ' 58. Now Geelani favours independent J&K, The Tribune, 1 June Amin Masoodi, Hurriyats reject Shah's proposal, The Kashmir Times, 2 June Ibid. 61. Indo Pak coference calls for resolving all issues through talks, The News, 28 June Kashmir conference backs self-determination, Dawn, 3 July Most Pakistanis, Indians flexible on Kashmir: Opinion poll in subcontinent, Dawn, 18 July 2008.

16 15 IRS Regional Brief Afghanistan June-July 2008 Arshi Saleem Hashmi Afghanistan is replacing Iraq as the destination of choice for international jihadists, Western intelligence agencies claim. Analysts have monitored a surge in online recruitment of lions of Islam to join the war in Afghanistan through jihadist websites, particularly in Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Chechnya and Turkey. Afghanistan Afghan insurgents on brink of defeat In the past two years an estimated 7,000 Taliban have been killed, the majority in southern and eastern Afghanistan. But it is the "very effective targeted decapitation operations" that have removed "several echelons of commanders". This in turn has left the insurgents on the brink of defeat, the head of Task Force Helmand said. (1) Western media believes that the number of Afghans involved in the insurgency has also fallen, with increasing numbers of Pakistanis, Chechens, Uzbeks and Arabs found dead on the battlefield. However, Brig Carleton-Smith warned that British forces must prepare for an increasingly Iraq-style insurgency as the Taliban modified its tactics from pitched battles to ambushes and roadside bombs. (2) Taliban revival blamed on foreign forces In yet another expression of frustration and haplessness, Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai put the blame for the resurgence of the Taliban in his country on the international community, saying it did not focus on sanctuaries of terrorists despite warnings in this regard since In a television programme, Karzai sounded critical of the international forces in Afghanistan, saying local people in some areas were troubled by the arrest and searches of their homes by foreign forces and wanted an end to these. (3) He expressed readiness to reach out to Taliban supreme leader Mullah Omar, saying he would talk to him if he abandoned violence and regretted what he had done. Japan may send troops to Afghanistan: Japanese PM Outgoing Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda said that Japan was considering sending its first troops to Afghanistan on a reconstruction mission. Tokyo has been a major donor to Afghanistan, pledging 1.3 billion dollars since the fall of the Taliban in late However, its pacifist constitution limits its military activities, and it does not have troops among the international forces. He said that if the conditions on the ground allowed, Japan could offer its cooperation in activities on the ground. (4) His comments came a day after Chief Cabinet Secretary Nobutaka Machimura said the government was studying widening Japan's contribution on Afghanistan, in addition to a military refuelling mission in the Indian Ocean.