The Reshaping of America. The Reshaping of America. The Reshaping of America. The Reshaping of America 9/17/2014

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1 Columbia Room B 9:45 AM 1:35 AM Hyatt Grand Regency Capitol Hill Tuesday September 9, 214 Welcome Today s Session Guest Speaker Questions and Answer Current Situation Changing demographics across the country are having a profound impact on the United States election process None more so as in the community where since the 197 s we have seen a significant increase in population. Today s Speaker Mark Lopez, Director of Research, Pew Institute The Nation s Changing Demographics Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Research Trends Project April 9, 214 1

2 Ages 25 or older 11% 68% Ages % 57% Ages 25 or older 11% 68% Source: Pew Center tabulations of the 21 American Community Survey Source: Pew Center tabulations of the 21 American Community Survey Ages % Ages -5 Ages % 22% % 22% 5 Source: Pew Center tabulations of the 21 American Community Survey Source: Pew Center tabulations of the 21 American Community Survey s are the Nation s Largest Minority Group Four Decades of Growth Population in millions Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2

3 Growth Likely to Continue (Largest Minority Since ~21) Population in millions 128 Share Rises to 29% by 25 Percent of Total Population 6% 3% 4% 7% 6% 8% 9% 1% 11% 9% 11% 12% 16% 12% Middle "Baseline" Immigration 15 19% 23% 26% 29% % 8 83% 8% 76% 7% 67% % 56% 52% 47% * * * Source: Pew Research Center population estimates & projections (28). *Not. Intermarriage Trend, (% of marriages involving spouses of a different race or ethnicity from each other) Intermarriage Rates, by Race and Ethnicity, 21 % of newlyweds married to someone of a different race/ethnicity 15 Newly married Currently married Source: Pew Research Center analysis of the Decennial Census and American Community Survey (ACS) Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 21 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files U.S. Immigrant Population Still Growing; Immigration Slows Immigration and Demographics Source: Pew Center, 213 3

4 Immigrant Share of U.S. Population, (%) Immigrant Stock Share of U.S. Population, Actual and Projected, (%) 1st generation 2nd generation Actual Projected Children of Immigrants 1 Immigrants Source: data and all second-generation data from Pew Research Center analysis of Current Population surveys, Integrated Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files; Pew Center projections for 22 to 25 from Passel and Cohn (28); historical trend from Passel and Cohn (28) and Edmonston and Passel (1994) Percent of adults 7% 6 6% 5 Immigrants Strength or Burden? Question: Which of these comes closer to your own views even if neither is exactly right. 1. Immigrants today strengthen our country because of their hard work and talents OR 2. Immigrants today are a burden on our country because they take our jobs, housing and health care? Strengthen our country Are a burden on our country 49% Three Great Waves of Immigrants (% of total) Northern Europe Wave, (14 million) European Latin American Southern/Eastern Europe Wave, (18 million) % 4% Modern Wave,1965-Present (4 million+) % 'Jul- Jun- Apr- Jun- Oct- Aug- Sep- Jun- Dec- Dec- Mar- Sep- Nov- Jun- Aug- Sep- Jan- Oct Source: Pew Research Center Notes: Immigrants from Canada and other areas not shown. Sources: Pew Research Center analysis of Integrated Public Use Microdata Samples for 198,199, and 2 Censuses and 28 American Community Survey numbers from Table 2 of Yearbook of Immigration Statistics,28. Office of Immigration Statistics. Where Each State s Largest Immigrant Population Was Born, 191 Where Each State s Largest Immigrant Population Was Born, 21 4

5 From Germany to Mexico, 185 to 21 The Nation s Changing Demographics and Politics Demographic Composition of Voters, 1988 to Presidential Vote, by Race/Ethnicity Obama 71 Romney Source: Pew Center tabulations from the Current Population Survey, November Supplements Source: Pew Center analysis of 212 National Election Pool national exit poll results, 212 Voter Turnout Rates in Presidential Elections Percent who reported voting among U.S. citizens ages 18 and older Young-Old Voting Gap Largest in Modern History 28 Presidential Vote (% voting for Democratic presidential candidate) , non-s , non-s 55 5 Latinos , non-s Source: Pew Research Center tabulations from CPS November Supplements, various years Source: Pew Research Center, October 211; exit polls, CBS, CBS/New York Times, Voter Research & Surveys, Voter News Service, National Election Pool 5

6 Latino Participation in Presidential Elections, Eligible voters No. of voters (self-reported) Latinos in the 212 Election: Who Voted, Who Didn t and Why Not eligible to vote immigrant 17.6children Voters Eligible to vote, but did not vote Adult legal permanent residents Adult unauthorized immigrants Under age 18 Eligible Voter Population, Actual and Projected Location of Latino Voters Share of growth (%) All Percent of Eligible Voters who are Latino More than 2% Latino (3 States) Between 11% and 2% Latino (6 States) Between and 11% Latino) (11 States) Less than Latino (31 States) Public s Priorities for Immigration Policy are Shifting Source: Pew Research Center, 214 Better border security & stronger law enforcement Way for those in U.S. illegally to become citizens Both should be given equal priority Republicans Now Less Supportive of Legal Status for Undocumented Immigrants Republican Democrat Independent Among Rep/Rep Lean Tea Party Non-Tea Party Source: Pew Research Center, 214 February 214 July 214 Be allowed to stay in Not be allowed U.S. legally to stay legally Be allowed to stay in U.S. legally Not be allowed to stay legally Change in allowed to stay legally % % % % Total

7 About the Trends Project Contact Information Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Research Trends Project Pew Center established in 21; rebranded in 213 Funded by The Pew Charitable Trusts A part of the Pew Research Center Purpose is to improve understanding of the diverse population in the U.S. and to chronicle the growing impact of this population on the U.S. Fact tank, not a think tank The Vote in Presidential Elections Party Affiliation among Latino Registered Voters % among Latino registered voters 58% 71% 58 Democrats % Republicans 27%