Fourth High Level Dialogue on Financing for Development. United Nations, New York, March 2010.
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1 The impact of the current financial and economic crisis on foreign direct investment and other private flows, external debt and international trade in emerging market economies Fourth High Level Dialogue on Financing for Development United Nations, New York, March UN-ECLAC On behalf of the UN Regional Commissions
2 As a consequence of the crisis, global economic activity, international trade and financial markets experienced contractions in unprecedented magnitudes 2 Global economic activity declined 0.8% % GDP growth rate, Percentage World Developed Eco. Developing Econ. Source: World Economic Outlook, IMF.
3 Global international trade declined by 13% 3 % Growth rate of the volume of international trade World trade Developed Economies Developing Economies Source: Development Studies Section on the basis of CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (2010).
4 As well global financial flows fell by 82%, led by a contraction in cross border flows 4 Global Cross-border capital flows (US$ Trillion). US$ Trillion Capital flows fell by 82% Source: McKinsey Global Institute (2009) FDI Equity Debt Lending and deposits
5 Financial flows fell also sharply in developing economies 5 Total financial flows to developing economies. ( ) (US$ Billions) US$ Billions Capital flows fell by 96% Net Outflows Source: WEO 2009, IMF
6 The crisis had also caused important social consequences, as illustrate by the global rise in unemployment 6 25 Unemployment rate, (percentage) Developed economies South eastern Europe Commonwealth of Independent States Africa Developing America Developing Asia Source: World Economic Situation and Prospects 2010, UN.
7 Even though this is a global crisis, not all developing economies regions and countries were affected with the same intensity and by the same factors
8 8 On average growth was lower in all developing economies, but Central and Eastern Europe and LAC experienced the most significant contraction % GDP Growth rates In percentage Developing economies Africa Central and Eastern Europe Developing Asia Middle East LAC Fuente: WEO, FMI. (2009) and ECLAC (2010)
9 At the regional level regions Commonwealth of Independent States and the Middle East experienced the largest drops in financial flows 9 Financial flows to developing economies (% of GDP) 10.0 % of GDP s Developing Asia Africa CEE CIS and Mongolia Middle East Western Hemisphere All EMEs Source: International Financial Statistics IMF, Rakesh Mohan and Muneesh Kapur (2009) and Robert Shelburne, Financing Development in Europe s Emerging Markets, UNECE Annual Report, 2008 and ECLAC 2010.
10 Even though was the most stable component among the private flows, FDI inflows experienced a significant decline in most of the developing economies regions 10 Direct Investment flows to emerging market economies. ( ) US$ Billions (US$ Billions) Annual % Change Developing economies Developing economies: Africa Developing economies: LAC Developing economies: Asia and Oceania Transition economies Developing economies Africa LAC Developing Asia and Oceania South-East Europe and CIS Source: WIR (2009) and Global and Regional FDI Trends in 2010, UNCTAD.
11 Given the negative effects on economic activity and employment, remittances also experienced a significant decline Dynamics of remittances flows (US$ Billions) US$ Billions e Asia Latin America and Caribbean Europe and Central Asia Middle East and Africa Source: Development Studies Sectiononthebasis odf World Development Indicators and Migration and Development Brief, Nº11, November, 2009.
12 In the Asia-Pacific region, the contraction of exports was the most immediate channel of transmission of the crisis, and the plunge in 2009 was much deeper than during other crises 12 Exports dynamic during some global crisis episodes % Change Percentage Bangladesh China India Republic of Korea Taiwan Province of China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand dot.com Source: ESCAP 2010
13 In Emerging Europe, non-fdi flows experienced a significant reversal as a consequence of the crisis 13 Capital Flows to Emerging Europe (% of GDP) Percent of GDP Private direct investment Other Inflows Official flows Source: Robert C. Shelburne, UNECE, March 2010.
14 The reduction on remittances was critical for many LAC in particular in Central America 14 Remittances inflows to Selected Countries in LAC % Change y-o-y 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% Guatemala El Salvador México -20% Nicaragua Rep. Dominicana Ecuador Colombia Jamaica -30% 1Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q 2009 Source: ECLAC
15 Heterogeneity is also present conditioning both the recovery process and how to face the postcrisis period.
16 Developing economies will growth faster than developed economies and it is expected that some developing economies will become the engine of global growth 16 GDP growth rate % World Developed Econ. Developing Econ. Source: World Economic Outlook, IMF. (2010)
17 In general, it is expected an increase in the total financial flows to emerging market economies in 2010 and 2011 but without reaching 2007 and 2008 levels Total Flows to Developing Economies US$ Billions US$ Billions > 627 Billions Source: WEO, IMF 2009
18 But there are significant regional differences in expected destiny of total financial flows 18 Total Flows to Developing Economies US$ Billions US$ Billions Emerging and developing economies LAC Middle East Developing Asia Africa Commonwealth of Independent States Central and eastern Europe Source: WEO, IMF 2009
19 In addition, Net FDI flows will not recover the pre-crisis level Foreign Direct Investment to Developing Economies 425 US$ Billions US$ Billions Emerging and developing economies LAC Middle East Developing Asia Africa Commonwealth of Independent States Central and eastern Europe Source: WEO, IMF 2009
20 It is also expected that remittances flows will recover, but the pace of recovery will be different among regions Dynamic of remittances flows (US$ Billions) US$ Billions US$ Billions e 2010f 2011f Asia Latin America and Caribbean Europe and Central Asia Middle East and Africa Source: Development Studies Sectiononthebasis odf World Development Indicators and Migration and Development Brief, Nº11, November, 2009.
21 Once again, heterogeneity among developing countries must be taken into account 21 Not all developing economies will have the same recovery process both in economic and social terms. Not all developing economies have the financial and fiscal capacity to mitigate the economic and social effects of the crisis, and to stimulate aggregate demand. Not all developing economies will have the same access to international financial markets. Not all developing economies have the same capacity and production specialization to take advantage of the recovery in international trade.
22 Traditionally, international financial markets have acted in a pro-cyclical and rather volatile manner, dampening and propagating external shocks 22 The main challenge of this post-crisis era is to avoid the mistakes of the past, and efforts have to be made to avoid that international financial resources are concentrated in a small group of developing countries and a small group of productive sectors. This requires a deep reform of the International Financial Architecture to promote: A revision of the global development agenda to rebalance the relationship between stability and development. The adoption of counter-cyclical policies to avoid the erratic behavior of international financial markets. Higher coordination among global, regional and sub-regional instance to develop early warning system to avoid future crisis episodes, new regulation and supervision schemes, and to coordinate policies related to increase the level and the efficiency of ODA.
23 Additionally, International cooperation is needed to avoid that the social and economic effects of the crisis have a deep and protracted effects 23 Traditionally, the negative effects of crises on social variables such as employment, real wages, and income distribution tend to have longer duration than the negative effects on economic variables. The current crisis is not an exception, and it may significant reduce the possibility for many developing economies to achieve the objectives of the development agenda, i.e., the MDGs. In part due to shortage of international financing, loss of access to international trade and poor fiscal stance. In this context, the international cooperation system must coordinate efforts to help those countries in need, and enough ODA resources have to be assigned to avoid an increase in poverty, hunger and deeper deterioration of social conditions.
24 FDI flows must play an important role in the future 24 Developing countries have in the past years relied on FDI inflows as one of the most important external sources of development finance. The crisis led to a huge drop in global FDI inflows, which will have a severe impact on the development finance in developing countries. Therefore, international community, particularly developed countries need to take measures to reverse this situation and implement the recommendations of the Monterrey Consensus and ensure adequate inflows of FDI and other private flows to developing countries. Private flows, and in particular, FDI can promote new technologies in the host countries, increase employment opportunities and open new market access for their exports.
25 The impact of the current financial and economic crisis on foreign direct investment and other private flows, external debt and international trade in emerging market economies Fourth High Level Dialogue on Financing for Development United Nations, New York, March UN-ECLAC On behalf of the UN Regional Commissions
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