Emerging Markets and the Changing Global Order: Is There a New Model of Development? King s International Development Institute and Ipsos MORI

Transcription

1 Emerging Markets and the Changing Global Order: Is There a New Model of Development? King s International Development Institute and Ipsos MORI

2 The survey 11 emerging markets covered: Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Russia, India, China*, South Korea, Indonesia Using Ipsos monthly survey - online panel: representative of more affluent, connected population in these countries Only includes those aged 16-64, 6,000 interviews in total, fieldwork 1-15 th Oct 2013 *Censors in China did allow two questions to be asked

3 Three key questions: 1. Which countries do people look to as an economic model?

4 Who do citizens of these countries look to? Which country or countries, if any, do you think have the right ideas about the economy and jobs that your country's leaders should copy? 0% 10% 20% 30% US China EU South Korea Russia Brazil Turkey India Other None Don t know 2% 3% 5% 5% 8% 9% 12% 16% 20% 26% 28%

5 The countries people look to fairly closely related to per capita income with one big exception Which country or countries, if any, do you think have the right ideas about the economy and jobs that your country's leaders should copy? 30% Size and pace of change that notice, not living standards? $60,000 $50,000 20% % stating good ideas about the economy and jobs GDP per capita ($, current prices, 2012) $40,000 $30,000 10% $20,000 $10,000 0% United States China EU South Korea Russia Brazil Turkey India $0, IMF, Eurostat *N.B.: The authorities in China refused to allow this question to be asked

6 Wide variation between countries Which country or countries, if any, do you think have the right ideas about the economy and jobs that your country's leaders should copy? 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Overall Saudi Arabia Turkey Argentina Russia Indonesia South Korea US China EU Brazil South Africa Mexico India *N.B.: The authorities in China refused to allow this question to be asked

7 BRI publics don t look to other BRIs for economic ideas Which country or countries, if any, do you think have the right ideas about the economy and jobs that your country's leaders should copy? Brazil Russia India Brazil - <1% 5% Russia 6% - 11% India 3% 1% - China 27% 27% 32%

8 Neighbourhood effects people looking in their own back yards Which country or countries, if any, do you think have the right ideas about the economy and jobs that your country's leaders should copy? China 49% South Korea 30% US 26% Indonesia Saudi Arabia Turkey 22% China 20% Others 16%

9 2. Best job opportunities for young people?

10 Clear US lead on job opportunities for young people; EU and China in a close second and third Which country or countries, if any, do you think provide the best job opportunities for young people today? US EU China South Korea Brazil India Russia Turkey Other None Don t know 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 4% 4% 6% 6% 7% 9% 10% 18% 17% 23% 29% Youth unemp rate* 16% 23% N/A 10% 18% 10% 15% 15% *Source: International Labour Organisation (2011/12)

11 US lead strongest in India, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa Which country or countries, if any, do you think provide the best job opportunities for young people today? 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Overall Saudi Arabia Argentina Russia Indonesia South Turkey Brazil Mexico India South Korea Africa US China EU *N.B.: The authorities in China refused to allow this question to be asked

12 Two significant differences when look across demographic groups Which country or countries, if any, do you think provide the best job opportunities for young people today? Education 24% 13% 16% US: 29% China: 17% EU: 18% Low Med High Low Med 32% Age 26% 24% < High Low Med High Age 22% 16% 19% < Overall

13 Brazil and India look to themselves Russia not so much Which country or countries, if any, do you think provide the best job opportunities for young people today? Brazil Russia India Brazil 22% * 5% Russia 4% 11% 7% India 2% 2% 27% China 20% 14% 22%

14 3. Which countries will be the leading economic powers over the next 20 years?

15 China seen as the leading global power over the next 20 years US widely mentioned, EU not Which country or countries, if any, do you think will be the leading economic powers of the world over the next 20 years? 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% China 52% US 30% EU 12% Russia India South Korea Brazil Turkey Other None 6% 4% 4% 2% 11% 10% 9% Balance of opinion very similar to 2013 Pew study in wider group of countries Don t know 13%

16 People are not far off from projections Which country or countries, if any, do you think will be the leading economic powers of the world over the next 20 years? % Leading economic power Real GDP ($trn) China 52% $11.6 $35.3 US 30% $13.9 $21.6 EU 12% $13.6 $20.8 Russia 11% $2.2 $4.0 India 10% $4.3 $16.0 South Korea 9% $1.4 $2.9 Brazil 6% $2.1 $4.3 Turkey 4% $1.0 $2.5 Note: GDP data is in 2005 US$ PPP volume terms Note: Data for the EU excludes Bulgaria, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania and Romania, OECD

17 China the most mentioned in every country, variable for US uniformly low for EU Which country or countries, if any, do you think will be the leading economic powers of the world over the next 20 years? 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Overall Saudi Arabia Brazil Indonesia Argentina Turkey Brazil Indonesia Russia India China South Mexico South Korea Africa US China EU South Korea Mexico Africa

18 Every BRIC country more likely to select own country than US Which country or countries, if any, do you think will be the leading economic powers of the world over the next 20 years? Brazil Russia India China Brazil 25% 1% 3% 2% Russia 8% 30% 8% 16% India 6% 2% 41% 2% China 39% 58% 42% 71% US 24% 26% 37% 39%

19 Overall Clear messages in emerging/non-western country opinion although note don t knows Not experts/decision-makers but national moods/impressions useful to understand China now nearly on par with US as a model to follow Although US still leads on job opportunities for young and stronger among young themselves Clear view of future reflects likely outcome to an extent: G7 accounted for 50% of world GDP in 1995, will be 34% by 2018; BRIC and TIMP up from 20% to 37% China s prominence despite low GDP per capita: living standards not top of mind? Little comfort for EU more educated more positive (and South Korea ), but not a positive image of future

20 Thank you Bobby Duffy, MD Ipsos Social Research Institute, Visiting Senior Research Fellow, King s College London