ECONOMIC ANALYSIS THAT MAKES A DIFFERENCE. MyGTAP. A Global Model with Single Country Flexibilities

Transcription

1 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS THAT MAKES A DIFFERENCE MyGTAP A Global Model with Single Country Flexibilities

2 Overview The Modeling Dilemma: Global vs. Single Country MyGTAP Capabilities Two applications Review of Benefits Future Directions

3 The Modeling Dilemma Global Models: Represent increasing International Connectedness Single Country Models: Represent Details of My Country better: Distributional Impacts (households and government) Linkages between income and household expenditure balances (expenditure and taxes) Factor Markets (wages and incomes) Production structure

4 Features - Compared Feature GTAP Single Country MyGTAP Household Representation (linked expenditure-income) Multiple Households - Capabilities Foreign Income, Remittances, Aid - Flexible Factor Categories Balances Global Linkages - Resources Off the Shelf Data and Model Training and Documentation Accessibility (ease of setup and use)

5 GTAP Standard Model

6 MyGTAP: All regions Private

7 MyGTAP: All regions Remitances Factor Income Private Household Private Consumption Private Taxes AID Consumption

8 New Data for all regions Foreign Remittances: Labor and Capital Foreign Aid Transfers (some) Rest in GTAP database /Balance = Residual

9 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM): all regions Commodities 0 Activities Commodities Activities Factors Households Capital Margins Rest of World Totals Domestic Supply Matrix Factors 0 Combined Intermediate Use Matrix 0 WTC: Private Consumption Consumption Investment Consumption Exports of Margins (fob) Exports of Commodities (fob) Expenditure on Primary Inputs Households 0 0 Taxes on Commodities Taxes on Production Taxes on Factor Use Capital 0 0 Margins Rest of World Imports of Trade and Transport Margins Imports of Commodities (fob) Distribution of Factor Incomes 0 Direct Taxes Depreciation Allowances 0 Transfers 0 0 Remittances in Direct/Income Taxes Household Foreign aid in 0 Balance on Margins Trade Remittances out Foreign aid out Total Demand for Commodities Total Domestic Supply by Activity Total Factor Income Total Household Income Total Income Foreign Total Total Income from Margin Imports Total Income from Imports

10 MyGTAP: My country Remitances Factor Income Household-1 Rural Poor Household-1 Rural Poor HHLD Save-1 Factor Income Remitances Taxes AID Household-5 Urban NP Household-5 Urban np HHLD Save-5 Consumption

11 MyGTAP: My country Remitances Remitances AID

12 MyGTAP: My country Flexible labor categories Labor Rural Unskilled Land Sector 1 Sector 2 Labor Rural Unskilled Land Labor Rural Unskilled Land Sector 1 Sector 2 Capital Manufacturing Land Sector 3 Sector 3 Capital Manufacturing Land

13 New Data for My Country For each household: Consumption of each commodity (WTC) rates (SRT) Income from each factor (ownership) (OWN) Income from Foreign Remittances (RMIH, FYIH, RMOH, FYOH) Transfers between households (TRNH) and to/from government (TRNG) For each factor Factor use by each sector in production (WTF)

14 Social Accounting Matric: My country Commodities 0 Activities Commodities Activities Factors Households Capital Margins Rest of World Totals Domestic Supply Matrix Factors 0 Combined Intermediate Use Matrix 0 WTC: Private Consumption Consumption Investment Consumption Exports of Margins (fob) Exports of Commodities (fob) WTF: Expenditure on Primary Inputs Households 0 0 Taxes on Commodities Taxes on Production Taxes on Factor Use Capital 0 0 Margins Rest of World Imports of Trade and Transport Margins Imports of Commodities (fob) OWN: Distribution of Factor Incomes 0 Direct Taxes Depreciation Allowances TRNH: Transfers TRNG: Transfers 0 0 Direct/Income Taxes SAV: Household RMIH, FYIH: Remittances Foreign aid 0 Balance on Margins Trade Foreign RMOU, FYOH: Remittances Foreign aid Total Demand for Commodities Total Domestic Supply by Activity Total Factor Income Total Household Income Total Income Total Total Income from Margin Imports Total Income from Imports

15 MyGTAP Data Sources GTAP Database Remittances Aid Factor Income by HHLD Factor Use by Sector Consump. by HHLD - Comm. Remittances by HHLD Transfers by HHLD GTAP All Regions My Country MyGTAP

16 Other Model features User choose LES or CDE for determining private consumption Alternative government closures available to fix government savings/balance, income, tax revenue or spending Altertax, GTAPView, GTAPVol, SAM and Welfare decomposition available

17 Review of benefits Global linkages with single country detail Multiple Private households (e.g., rural and urban) Link government income and expenditure to tax revenue Transfers between households and Foreign aid and remittances Flexible Factors categories (e.g., rural and urban labor)

18 Future Directions Poverty Measures Enterprise account to allow government to collect income from factors of production Replace the whole IO table for MY Country, except trade data For multiple MY countries please contact us

19 Thank you! For more information