Human capital and employability in the 14 Partners of the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM) Euro-Med Employment High Level Group Meeting

Transcription

1 Human capital and employability in the 14 Partners of the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM) Euro-Med Employment High Level Group Meeting Ummuhan Bardak, European Training Foundation (ETF) Brussels, 14 February

2 UfM Partners: diverse structures, similar challenges Young and growing populations (Graph 1) Economic growth hampered by economic crisis and Arab spring in some countries (Table 1) Diverse economic structures dominated by SMEs (e.g. sectors, high-low productivity, formal-informal) (Table 2) Human development level not always in line with economic development (Graph 2) Territorial disparity and gender inequality linked with poverty 2

3 Preparation for the labour market: education and training Improved access to education universal primary education, increased years of schooling, but quality problems (Graph 3) Increasing secondary enrolment, but problems with early school leavers (Graph 4) and quality (e.g. PISA) VET small, narrow and unattractive not playing its potential economic and social role! Strong aspiration for higher education with limited employment prospects (Graph 5) Some without access to education & training (e.g. persisting illiteracy) (Graph 6) 3

4 Key labour market indicators Low activity and employment rates, especially among females (Graph 7) and (Graph 8) High and increasing unemployment rates, esp. females (Graph 9) Wage employment is the norm, but high proportion of selfemployment and unpaid family work (Graph 10) Tough choice between unemployment, inactivity, informal sector and emigration 4

5 What happened after the Arab Spring? Disruption in production and exports (zero growth in Tunisia, Egypt s economy shrunk 7% and exports dropped 40%) Deep falls in tourism revenues (drop of 36% in Tunisia, 40% in Egypt) and foreign direct investment Decreasing remittances and expat returns (35-50k Tunisians and 100k Egyptians from Libya) Increasing unemployment rates (from 13% in 2010 to 19% in 2011 in Tunisia, from 9% in 2010 to 12% in 2011 in Egypt) Increased youth unemployment rates (from 30% to 43% in Tunisia, 26% in 2011 in Egypt) 5

6 Youth employment characteristics Large youth cohorts (Graph 11) and high rates of youth unemployment (Graph 12) Weak links between education and business mismatch between education outputs and market demand (Graph 13) 1. The educated unemployed with difficult school-to-work transitions («wait unemployment») 2. Low-skilled/unskilled youth who can not afford to be unemployed, but take precarious jobs in informal sector 3. Youth who are neither in education nor in employment: most vulnerable to social exclusion 6

7 Employment policy response to the Arab Spring Urgency of (un)employment problem: test for social policies and smooth transition to democracy Increases in public sector wages as well as in minimum wages: Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Lebanon Increased hiring of unemployed graduates in public service and creation of new public service posts: Algeria, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia Active labour market policies expanded: employment subsidies, large employability and training programmes, public works schemes Emerging trade unions and social dialogue mechanisms with the potential to enhance employment policies Increased international cooperation and funding 7

8 Policy implementation challenges on the ground Differences between policy development and implementation Institutional capacity to meet increased employment challenges: strengthening Public Employment Services Monitoring and evaluation of active labour market measures to ensure efficiency and effectiveness Addressing the different needs of the three youth groups (i.e. educated unemployed, low-skilled in informal jobs, NEETs) in a balanced manner Contribution of social partners, and policy coordination with other policy areas and institutions 8

9 Enhancing employability requires concerted actions in: Improving the relevance of skills of young people, including access to high quality education at all levels Supporting job creation (entrepreneurship and SME growth; territorial development; emerging sectors) Improving the functioning of labour markets by addressing segmentation, transparent LM management and job-placement systems 9

10 Improving education & training for employability Access, quality and relevance (of education at all levels) with special attention to upper secondary education Increasing the size, options and attractiveness of VET as a valid educational pathway towards employment special attention for girls The content and process of education: key competences, active learning, soft skills (entrepreneurship, citizenship, communication, ICT, foreign languages, etc.) Education & business cooperation and good, multi-level governance with social partners and other civil society actors special attention to school & training centre management 10

11 Improving school-to-work transition and employment Strengthening the role of public employment services, more efficient job placement services Improving and scaling up ALMPs as a means for skills adaptation, activation and work experience More systematic career guidance and counselling, including gender-neutral educational choices Evidence-based policy making through monitoring and evaluation of implemented programmes and LM trend analyses Enhanced cooperation between the EU (Euromed), EU Member States and Partner Countries 11

12 Graph 1: Population by age groups in 2010, % UN DESA 100% 80% 60% 40% 10% 14% 17% 12% 6% 5% 4% 4% 10% 7% 3% 5% 5% 7% 68% 63% 59% 59% 55% 68% 62% 68% 68% 66% 70% 71% 68% 68% 17% 67% 20% 0% 23% 15% 15% 19% 26% 32% 38% 37% 27% 25% ALB BIH CRO MON TUR EGY JOR SYR ISR LEB % PAL 27% 28% 23% 16% ALG MOR TUN EU27 12

13 Countries Table 1: GDP Growth Rate and GDP Per Capita , IMF and WDI Annual GDP Growth % constant prices by IMF GDP per capita, current USD Albania ,719 BiH ,492 Croatia ,736 Montenegro ,401 Turkey ,712 Egypt ,591 Jordan ,525 Syria ,734 Israel ,683 Lebanon ,203 Algeria ,501 Morocco ,771 Tunisia ,204 13

14 Table 2: Main economic sectors by their value added to GDP and their employment share , LFS+ WDI Countries Agriculture (%) Industry (%) Services (%) Employ GDP Employ. GDP Employ. GDP Albania BiH Croatia Montenegro Turkey Egypt Jordan Syria Israel Lebanon OPT 11.8 NA 24.6 NA 63.6 NA Algeria Morocco Tunisia

15 Graph 2: Country ranking in the UNDP Human Development Index, Montenegro Albania Lebanon BiH Turkey Tunisia Jordan Algeria Egypt OPT Syria Morocco HDI ranking GNI ranking 15 Croatia Israel Netherlands Bulgaria

16 Graph 3: Mean years of schooling and school life expectancy (years per person) Primary to tertiary UNESCO, Last available year Croatia (09 ) Turkey (08) Egypt (04) Jorda n (0 8) Syria (07) Israel Lebanon (08) OPT Algeria Morocco Tunisia Irelan d (0 9) Luxembourg (06) Mean Years of Shooling Expected Years of Schooling 16 Albania (04) BIH

17 Graph 4: Gross enrolment rates in secondary education and % of VET enrolment, UNESCO, last year Albania BiH Croatia M ontenegro Turkey Egypt Jordan Syria Israel Lebanon OPT Algeria Morocco Tunis ia Lower Secondary (ISCED 2) Upper Secondary (ISCED 3) Vocational enrolment in ISCED 3 (% of VET in ISCED 3) 17

18 Graph 5: Gross enrolment rates in tertiary education, UNESCO, Last year available BiH CRO TUR (08) EGY (08) JOR (08) ISR LEB OPT ALG MOR TUN Total Female 18

19 Graph 6: Adult and youth literacy rates, UNESCO Last available year Albania (08) BIH Croatia Turkey Egypt (06) Jordan (07) Syria Lebanon (07) OPT Algeria (06) Morocco Tunisia (08) Adult (15+) Tot Youth (15-24) Tot 19

20 Graph 7: Activity rates by gender (15+) LFS 2010 Albania BiH Croatia Montenegro Turkey Egypt Jordan Syria Israel Lebanon OPT Algeria Morocco Tunisia EU Sources: National statistical Office, LFS databases and publications ALB, OPT, MOR: 2009; EGY, ISR, TUN: ALB and OPT: Female Male 20

21 Graph 8: Employment rates by gender, LFS ALB BIH CRO MON TUR EGY 15+ JOR 15+ SYR 15+ ISR 15+ LEB OPT ALG MOR TUN 15+ Source: National statistical offices Total Male Female 21

22 Graph 9: Unemployment rates by gender, LFS ALB BIH CRO MON TUR EGY 15+ JOR 15+ SYR 15+ ISR 15+ LEB OPT ALG MOR TUN 15+ Source: National statistical offices Total Male Female 22

23 Graph 10: The share of employed by work status, LFS Albania 15+ BIH 15+ Croatia 15+ Montenegro 15+ Turkey015+ Egypt 15+ Jordan Syria 15+ Israel 15+ Lebanon 15+ OPT Algeria 15+ Morocco Source: National statistical insitutes, LFS 2008 for AL and EG, 2009 for LEB and MOR. Employee Self-employed Unpaid family w orker 23

24 27% 21% 19% Graph 11: Share of population aged (%), 2010, UN DESA 29% 31% 31% 29% 29% 29% 29% 27% 27% 22% 23% 19% EGY (23.4) JOR (1.9) SYR (5.8) ISR (1.7) LEB (1.1) PAL (1.2) ALG (10.9) MOR (9.2) TUN (3.0) EU27 (94 362) 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 24 A LB (0.9) B IH (0.8) CRO (0.8) MON (0.1) TUR (19.5)

25 Graph 12: Youth unemployment rates LFS 2010 Albania BiH Croatia Montenegro Turkey Egypt Jordan Syria Israel (15-17) OPT (15+) Lebanon Algeria (16-59) Morocco (25-59) Tunisia EU Sources: National statistical Office, LFS databases and publications ALB, OPT and MOR: 2009; EGY, ISR, TUN:

26 Graph 13: Percentage of firms identifying skills as major constraint for business (BEEPS) ALB BIH CRO MON TUR (08) EGY (08) JOR (06) SYR LEB OPT (06) ALG (07) MOR (07) Source: Business Environment Survey BEEPS, World Bank and EBRD 26