Implications of the Debate over Border Violence Spillover. Sylvia Longmire

Transcription

1 Implications of the Debate over Border Violence Spillover Sylvia Longmire

2 Overview Current situation in Mexico Challenges to defining border violence spillover Crime statistics vs. anecdotal evidence Problems arising from definition disconnect Some solutions for spillover prevention strategy

3 The War Inside Mexico Mexico is in the midst of a crisis of drug-related violence 46,000+ killed since President Felipe Calderón came into office in December 2006 Five major transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) and dozens of smaller groups fighting for control Fighting with each other over drug smuggling corridors Fighting with the police and army for autonomy Areas in Mexico being affected for specific reasons Border crossings and drug transshipment points TCOs increasingly using terrorist TTPs

4 Current Narco Hot Spots Ciudad Júarez A murder free-for-all between TCOs and gangs Monterrey/Saltillo A crucial drug transshipment point Acapulco Port city that receives precursor chemicals for meth Nuevo Laredo to Matamoros (northern Tamaulipas) Primary battleground for CDG vs. Los Zetas Durango Culiacán Second only to Juárez in number of homicides

5 Characteristics of Violence Violence against government forces Assaults/ambushes of military convoys Assassinations of police Kidnapping of political figures Violence between TCOs Beheadings and dismemberments with messages common Targeting used to be specific; expertise has degenerated Violence against the general public Narcomantas inject a psychological factor Grenade attacks in public areas Kidnapping and murders of migrants

6 TCO Techniques and Tactics Use of pistols, assault weapons and sniper rifles Favorites include AK-47s, AR-15s,.50-caliber Barrett, FiveSeven pistols, 9mm pistols Use of hand grenades and crude explosives Attacks in public spaces, against newspapers, police stations Difference between car bomb and bomb in a car Beheadings and dismemberments A way of keeping up with the Joneses Intimidation tool, way to send messages Kidnappings Extortion

7 Narcos Moving North NDIC 2011: Mexican TCOs have a presence in more than 1,000 cities across the United States Responsible for 90% of drugs consumed by Americans Anywhere there s a demand, there s a TCO influence TCOs rely heavily on US-based gangs Gangs in border states carry out assassinations Gangs across the US help with drug distribution TCOs in the US operate in terrorist-like cell structures Helps insulate them from law enforcement Makes investigation and prosecution extremely difficult

8 Define border violence spillover

9 Is spillover happening?

10 Defining Border Violence Spillover According to DHS: [S]pillover violence entails deliberate, planned attacks by the cartels on U.S. assets, including civilian, military, or law enforcement officials, innocent U.S. citizens, or physical institutions such as government buildings, consulates, or businesses. This definition does not include trafficker on trafficker violence, whether perpetrated in Mexico or the U.S.

11 Defining Border Violence Spillover According to the State of Texas: Mexican cartel related violence that occurs in Texas. We include aggravated assault, extortion, kidnapping, torture, rape, and murder.

12 Defining Border Violence Spillover According to the Southwest Border Task Force: Any act of violence motivated by drugs, human smuggling or money that takes place within 25 miles of the U.S.- Mexico border and can be linked to crime across the border.

13 Defining Border Violence Spillover There is no standardized, universally accepted definition Some definitions take into account criminal-on-criminal activity, some don t This is the very nature of violence going on in Mexico Right now, any agency or state/local government can define spillover however they want This helps shape their policies and resource allocation, for better or worse

14 The Statistics Feb 2011: DHS Secretary Janet Napolitano says crime along the southwest border is down 30% Nov 2010: El Paso is ranked the safest city in the US by CQ Press : Overall crime rates in San Diego have either stayed flat or decreased by as much as 25% : Violent crime rates in AZ dropped 15% : Violent crime and property crime rates in CA, NM, and TX had an overall drop

15 The Statistics Crime statistics for these statements and reports are usually pulled from the FBI s UCR database With all the filters and options available, it s hard to know how agencies came up with their statistics Examining the data in different ways can produce dramatically different results UCR database does not include information on possible TCO affiliation by offenders DHS: [We] don t have exact stats on violence between cartel members [in the US].

16 The Statistics Crime statistics only include data for crimes that are actually reported to the police By its very nature, drug-related violence is almost always committed by criminals against criminals Increasingly, crimes are being committed along the border by criminals against illegal immigrants Neither criminals nor illegal immigrants are interested in reporting crimes to the police The real amount of activity that could be classified as spillover isn t being captured by crime statistics

17 The Stories

18 Phoenix, Arizona June 2008

19 Shelby County, AL August 2008

20 Las Vegas, Nevada October 2008

21 Pharr, Texas January 2009

22 San Diego, California May 2009

23 Douglas, Arizona March 2010

24 Chandler, Arizona October 2010

25 Rio Rico, Arizona December 2010

26 McAllen, Texas September 2011

27 Edinburg, Texas October 2011

28 The Stories These crimes are captured in statistics, but make more of an impact when they hit the media News outlet portrayal can make the security situation in some areas seem worse than it is The kidnapping situation in Phoenix scared away some potential tourists due to media coverage Incidents like these are scattered, and not happening on a daily basis, compared to Mexico

29 Definition Disconnect

30 Definition Disconnect Today, spillover is in the eye of the beholder Federal officials say the southwest border has never been more secure Some state and local officials say just the opposite Who can/should the American people believe? Our federal government? Their law enforcement and elected officials? Media reports?

31 Definition Disconnect Lack of a universal definition is leading to major conflicts between federal and local agencies Feb 2011: Mayors of Nogales, San Luís, and Douglas, AZ sent Babeu a letter asking him to tone it down Some officials taking advantage of the conflict to attract the media spotlight Americans along the border getting mixed messages Ranchers feel unprotected, unheard, unimportant Potential tourists are irrationally afraid Ultimately, border security policy is at a stalemate

32 Ways to a Better Prevention Strategy TALK, people! DHS needs to convene a meeting or conference involving ALL the border players Various perspectives need to be heard: politicians, law enforcement, businesses, feds/state/local, etc. Give the states more input into how border security policies are crafted to fit their unique needs What works for El Paso may not work for Douglas Officials with a public forum need to be careful of how they portray the border security situation Political aspirations need to come second

33 Ways to a Better Prevention Strategy Federal officials visiting the border need to do so without the cameras and public relations shtick They need prepare to hear things they don t want to hear Agencies at all levels need to reach out to social services that work with illegal immigrants, drug users One way to determine what kinds of crimes, and how many, are being committed against them Increase the cultivation of human sources Helps evaluate nature of unreported criminal activity in border communities

34 Conclusions We know TCO members are here in the US, and are here to stay for the foreseeable future We know they re engaged in drug trafficking, kidnapping, extortion, murder, etc. on US soil Exactly to what extent, we may never know We re not soon going to see Juárez-style shootouts in downtown El Paso, San Diego, Phoenix, or Houston It ll always be safe to take your kids to school, go to the supermarket, vote on Election Day, etc.

35 Conclusions Drug-related violence in Mexico is escalating We re not seeing related spikes in violence here Occurrence of isolated incidents may be increasing Federal/state/local agencies need to TALK in order to wrap their heads around what spillover means I ll know it when I see it is unacceptable definition Until everyone is working off the same sheet of music, governments can t develop effective border security and spillover prevention strategies

36 Questions? Sylvia Longmire Owner, Longmire Consulting