After the Fall of Daesh in Syria and Iraq: Counter-Radicalisation

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1 After the Fall of Daesh in Syria and Iraq: Implications for Radicalisation and Counter-Radicalisation Professor Peter R. Neumann King s College peter.neumann@kcl.ac.uk

2 POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS 1) Destroyed safe haven and basis of operations

3 POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS 1) Destroyed safe haven and basis of operations as well as extremist utopia

4 POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS 2) The virtual caliphate has NOT risen

5 POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS 2) The virtual caliphate has NOT risen Source: Charlie Winter

6 POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS 2) The virtual caliphate has NOT risen in fact, Daesh online propaganda has declined Source: Charlie Winter

7 POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS 2) The virtual caliphate has NOT risen in fact, Daesh online propaganda has declined Source: Charlie Winter

8 POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS 3) The tempo of terrorist operations has decreased and recruitment seems to have slowed as well.

9 POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS 3) The tempo of terrorist operations has decreased and recruitment seems to have slowed as well.

10 ONGOING CONCERNS 1) No one knows how the returnee threat is going to play out

11 ONGOING CONCERNS 1) No one knows how the returnee threat is going to play out Source: Thomas Hegghammer

12 ONGOING CONCERNS 1) No one knows how the returnee threat is going to play out Source: Soufan Group

13 ONGOING CONCERNS 1) No one knows how the returnee threat is going to play out Source: Soufan Group

14 ONGOING CONCERNS 1) No one knows how the returnee threat is going to play out Source: Soufan Group

15 ONGOING CONCERNS 1) No one knows how the returnee threat is going to play out but will they professionalise plots?

16 ONGOING CONCERNS 2) More than ever, IS is focusing on inciting terrorism. especially, but not exclusively, in Europe.

17 ONGOING CONCERNS 3) New profiles, new actors create uncertainty

18 ONGOING CONCERNS 3) New profiles, new actors create uncertainty. Women Germany: Safia S. stabs plliceman U.S.: San Bernardino California, 14 dead Turkey: female suicide bomber kills 1 policeman in Istanbul Libya: all-women units, hundreds trained for combat, suicide ops France: 4 women and Notre Dame bomb attempt France: 2 teenagers detained on suspicion of terrorist attack Kenya: 3 women stab police officer Morocco: 10 women and suicide plot during elections Indonesia: 4 women in suicide plot on Presidential palace 2017 Iran: female detained in coordinated attack (mausoleum) Mosul: 38 female suicide bombers (some with children) Philippines: women in combat Tunisia: possible security threat, women banned from Emirates flights from UAE? Source: Joanna Cook

19 ONGOING CONCERNS 3) New profiles, new actors create uncertainty. Women. Gangsters

20 ONGOING CONCERNS 3) New profiles, new actors create uncertainty. Women. Gangsters. Copycats

21 ONGOING CONCERNS 3) New profiles, new actors create uncertainty. Women. Gangsters. Copycats. Al-Qaeda?

22 ONGOING CONCERNS 3) New profiles, new actors create uncertainty. Women. Gangsters. Copycats. Al-Qaeda?. Reciprocal radicalisation

23 Terrorist Threat in Europe: Developments post-daesh Key take-aways: 1) The fall-out from what has happened in Syria and Iraq over the past 5-6 years will preoccupy for us for many years to come.

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26 Developments post-daesh: A European Perspective Key take-aways: 1) The fall-out from what has happened in Syria and Iraq over the past 5-6 years will preoccupy for us for many years to come. 2) No one knows exactly what the future holds. Situation is in flux. 3) Will Daesh survive? More than ever, it is important to focus on networks, not organisations. 4) Terrorism in Europe likely to remain an issue. Mix of directed, enabled, inspired plots: no changes in Modus Operandi for the time being. 5) Risk of reciprocal radicalisation. 6) But in the long term, will returnees lead to professionalisation? 7) Expect emergence of new profiles, new actors: watch out for women, gangsters, copycats, and old/new groups.

27 Developments post-daesh: A European Perspective Implications for radicalisation and counter-radicalisation: Lesson #1: move decisively against key recruiters and recruitment magnets Lesson #2: push social media providers to act responisbly Lesson #3: Now is NOT the time to stop investing in CT and counter-radicalisation Counter-radicalisation is not THE solution, but one of several tools to mitigate the risk of violent extremism. Where counter-radicalisation programmes exists, they needs to be adapted to changing profiles and populations: e.g. women, children, refugees. They also need to be adapted to changing places: e.g. prisons. De-escalate rhetoric

28 Developments after the Fall of Daesh in Syria and Iraq: A European Perspective Professor Peter R. Neumann King s College peter.neumann@kcl.ac.uk