Recent Developments in the South China Sea and Evolution of Vietnam s Claims and Positions
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1 Recent Developments in the outh China ea and Evolution of Vietnam s Claims and Positions Tran Truong Thuy Center for East ea (outh China ea) tudies Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam
2 Content Recent Developments in the outh China ea Vietnam s Interests in the C Vietnam s Claims to Territories and Maritimes Zones Vietnam s Positions on ettlement and Management of the C Issues
3 Recent Developments in the C Golden Time Passed - The Tripartite Agreement between National Oil and Gas Corporations of China, Philippines, Vietnam for Joint Marine eismic Undertaking expired in (Lesson: area of cooperation) - Limits of DOC (No cooperative activities; unable to effectively manage the situation) Increasing Tension
4 China: From Charm to Offensive? Intent: Control the C, trategically and Economically trategy: 3 No No Clarification of Claim (Take advantage of ambiguity, lack of legal foundation) No Multilateralization: Prevent discussion about C in regional and international forums; (Divide and Rule AEAN target: non-claimants: Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand) No Internationalization: Prevent extra-regional powers (especially the U) from involvement; no third party settlements Chinese Bilateralism: Not for dispute resolution, but for joint development (sovereignty is mine) Policy: Multi-Dimensional policy: to de-factor control the C
5 Military Control Near eas : Anti-Access/Area Denial First and econd Islands Chains Impeccable Incident Navy Modernization, Military Exercise in the Disputes Water: to demonstrate strength: Win without Fighting
6 «n o A4 ång Xoµi Hå ChÝMinh Bµ rþa - Vòng tµu 13 HuÕ 12. Cån Cá µ n½ng B o Léc 21 Qui nh n Nha trang o h i Na m. Lý s n. Phó quý X1 H i Na m 25. Hoµng sa. Linh c«n. Hoa Lau.ong Tö «ng.nam YÕt.inh Tån. n Ca.C«ng o.b nh Nguyªn.VÜnh ViÔn Three Directions Tactics: Unilateral Actions: Resources Control Dividing Oil and Gas Blocks within U-shaped Line 30 bil. UD Investment in Energy Development in the C; Enhancing Deep ea Drilling Capacity (3500 m) Unilaterally declare fishing ban in the disputed area helving dispute and joint development within the U-haped Claim on principle what is mine is mine, what is yours is mine and we are willing to share Law Enforcement: Arrest fishermen, vessel; Harass oil and gas exploration taken by other countries within the U-shape Line T ChÝnh T y Ba KÌ Ngoµi cöa VBB B¾c T ChÝnh B i James hoal (T ng MÉu) QuÇn o Hoµng a (ViÖt Nam) Nam. Tri T«n T y L t Khu vùc tho thuën ba bªn QuÇn o Tr êng a (ViÖt Nam) B i c¹n B¾c Luconia (B¾c Khang)
7 Other Claimants The Philippines amended archipelagic baselines; plan to develop disputed island into a tourist spot; congressmen visited pratly. Navy modernization: eeking 1 submarine Malaysian PM inspected Layang Layang. Malaysia bought 2 French-built corpene-class submarines Vietnam is modernizing navy: signed contracts to buy 6 Kilo-class submarines, 12 ukhoi Fighter Jets and other military hardware from Russia, Outer Continental helf ubmissions
8 Implications of Outer Continental helf ubmissions China Maximize the area of dispute: Turn undisputed to disputed C AEAN countries Minimize the area of dispute Islands: capable for EEZ and continental shelf (New Interpretation of U-shape) Features are Rocks: incapable for EEZ or continental shelf Implications for AEAN (fishing activities), for U and other Powers (mil. activities in EEZ)
9 Recent developments Involvement of non-claimants U: has a national interest in freedom of navigation, open access to Asia s maritime commons, and respect for international law in the C; supports a collaborative diplomatic process, supports the 2002 AEAN-China DOC, encourages the parties to reach agreement on a COC, Indonesia: The nine dotted line map clearly lacks international legal basis and is tantamount to upset the UNCLO 1982 Is buying 2 submarines this year ingapore requested China to clarify the U-hape Line Australia, Japan, India.: Freedom of Navigation, Peaceful resolution of dispute
10 Implication of Recent Developments Violation of sovereignty rights of other claimants under international law of the sea Rising Nationalism Risks of escalation from small incidents to military clashes or arms conflict => Military build up/ arm race Implications to overall relationships, decreasing political trust between China and other AEAN claimants => Complicating the negotiation process for CBMs and cooperative activities More clarifications of claims => less rooms for finding acceptable area for cooperation. 2 obstacles: U-shaped Line and regime of island China used of force in 1974
11 Vietnam's Interests in the outh China ea Territorial overeignty over Paracel and pratly Geostrategic Interests (Protect national security from a sea-based attack, sea lanes of communication) Economic Interests (living and nonliving resources: Fish, oil and gas, minerals,..) Nontraditional security (Environment, ea Level Rise, Transnational crimes, Piracy, ) Domestic tability, Regime urvival
12 Vietnam s Claims in the outh China ea Vietnam has sovereignty over land features of the Paracel and pratly Islands Continuous activities to exercise sovereignty over the Paracel and pratly by the Nguyen Dynasty, the French protectorate and the Republic of Vietnam, and ocialist Republic of Vietnam
13 Vietnam Claims in the C Distinguish the settlement of disputes over the Paracels and pratlys with the issue of defense of maritime areas and continental shelf generated from the mainland
14 Maritime Zones Claimed from Mainland Vietnam claimed the whole range of maritime zones from baselines: 12-nautical mile territorial sea, 12-mile contiguous zone, 200-mile Exclusive Economic Zone. Continental elf and Extended Continental helf
15 Outer Continental helf ubmissions As an obligation to meet the deadlines set by UNCLO Vietnam Position on regime of features in the C: Features are Rocks: incapable for EEZ or continental shelf => Minimize the area of dispute
16 Vietnam Position on ettlements of C Issues: Bilateral, Multilateral and International MOFA pokesperson Press Conference on June 10th, 2011: There are many types of issues within the East ea issue. Issues related only to two countries, such as the issues between Vietnam and China like the entrance of the Gulf of Tonkin, the Hoàng a archipelago the Paracel, shall be settled bilaterally between the countries directly concerned. Issues related to countries and other parties concerned, such as the issue of Trường a archipelago - the partly, shall be settled between the parties concerned. Issues not only related to the East ea coastal countries but also related to the countries outside the region, such as security and safety of navigation, etc shall be settled with the participation of parties concerned.
17 Vietnam Position on ettlements of C Issues Question: Is there a role to be played by the United tates or other countries that do not have a claim to any territory in the ea, or international bodies, in helping resolve disputes? Answer: Maintaining peace, stability, security, maritime safety in the East ea is the common interest of the countries inside and outside the region. Therefore, every effort by the international community in maintaining peace and stability in the East ea is welcome.
18 Agreement on Basic Principles Guiding the ettlement of ea-related Issues between China and Vietnam 8 rounds of negotiation 6 Points Agreement Point 3: For sea-related disputes between Vietnam and China, the two sides shall solve them through friendly talks and negotiations. Disputes relating to other countries shall be settled through negotiations with other concerned parties.
19 Vietnam s Position on Managements of Disputes igned and Call for full implementation of DOC 2002 (including all components) Basic Norms ( Resolve disputes by peaceful means, without resorting to the threat or use of force; friendly consultations and negotiations) Prohibited activities (exercise self-restraint in the conduct of activities, no new occupation) Encouraging activities ( Confidence-building measures; Cooperative activities) upports idea of clarification of non-disputed and disputed maritime zones to shape potential area for joint cooperation. (Philippine ZoPFF/C) Develop a binding code of conduct (COC) within AEAN => with China
20 Vietnam and Joint Development upports in Principle In Practice: Fishery Cooperation with China in the Gulf of Tonkin 2000 Joint Development of Energy with China in the Gulf of Tonkin 2000 Joint Development of Energy with Malaysia in the Gulf of Thailand Tripartite Agreement with Malaysia and Thailand Tripartite Agreement with Philippine, China (JMU 2005) Join Development only in the really disputed areas according to UNCLO 1982
21 Thank you!
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