Liberty, Equality, Prosperity
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1 Liberty, Equality, Prosperity November
2 Economic Freedom Less More Economic decisions made collectively. Economic decisions made individually. Controlled people Free people 2
3 Arguments Against and For Economic Freedom People should be controlled Left to themselves, people will consolidate power, stifle competition, exploit each other, and confiscate wealth. People should be free Left to themselves, people will disseminate power, promote competition, cooperate with each other, and create wealth. 3
4 Economic Freedom of North America Economic Freedom of the World Size of government Government consumption Transfers and subsidies Social Security payments Takings and discriminatory taxes Tax revenue Top marginal income tax rate and threshold Other tax revenues Labor market freedom Minimum wage Public sector employment Union density 4
5 For each year, divide the states into two groups 25 least free 25 most free 5
6 Economic Freedom of North America ( ) Least Free Most Free 6
7 Income 7
8 Economic Freedom of North America (all levels of government) Data source: U.S. Census Bureau, Historical Income Tables: Households, Table H-8; Ashby, Bueno, and McMahon, Economic Freedom of North America 2011, Fraser Institute 8
9 Economic Freedom of North America (all levels of government) 1985 $22,000 $24,000 Data source: U.S. Census Bureau, Historical Income Tables: Households, Table H-8; Ashby, Bueno, and McMahon, Economic Freedom of North America 2011, Fraser Institute 9
10 Economic Freedom of North America (all levels of government) Less free: $35,300 More free: $38,000 Median household income averaged 7.6% higher in the more free states. Data source: U.S. Census Bureau, Historical Income Tables: Households, Table H-8; Ashby, Bueno, and McMahon, Economic Freedom of North America 2011, Fraser Institute 10
11 Counterargument Higher incomes can mask the effects of unemployment. 10 workers each earn $50,000 9 workers each earn $0 1 worker earn $500,000 Average = $50,000 Unemployment = 0% Average = $50,000 Unemployment = 90% 11
12 Unemployment 12
13 Economic Freedom of North America (all levels of government) % 6.7% Data Source: Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States; Ashby, Bueno, and McMahon, Economic Freedom of North America 2011, Fraser Institute 13
14 Economic Freedom of North America (all levels of government) Less free: 5.8% More free: 5.2% The difference in unemployment rates = 1 million jobs. Data Source: Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States; Ashby, Bueno, and McMahon, Economic Freedom of North America 2011, Fraser Institute 14
15 Counterargument Unemployment data ignore the chronically jobless. 15
16 Workers 5.0 million Employed 4.7 million Unemployed 0.3 million 100,000 unemployed workers become discouraged Unemployment rate = 0.3 / 5.0 = 6% 16
17 Workers 4.9 million Non-employed 0.1 million Employed 4.7 million Unemployed 0.2 million Unemployment rate = 0.2 / 4.9 = 4.1% 17
18 18
19 Poverty Poverty numbers will capture poor, discouraged workers. 19
20 Economic Freedom of North America (all levels of government) Less free: 13.6% More free: 11.9% The difference in poverty rates = 5 million people living in poverty. Data source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GDP and Personal Income Regional Data; Ashby, Bueno, and McMahon, Economic Freedom of North America 2011, Fraser Institute 20
21 Counterargument Low poverty rates can mask large outcome inequality. 21
22 Outcome Inequality 22
23 Gini Inequality Index
24 Economic Freedom of North America (all levels of government) Less outcome inequality in more free states. Data source: Census Bureau, American Community Survey, B19083; Ashby, Bueno, and McMahon, Economic Freedom of North America 2011, Fraser Institute 24
25 Counterargument Outcome inequality measures don t mean what we think they mean. 25
26 Inequality Poverty No one ever died from income inequality. 26
27 Outcome Inequality Line up people from poorest to richest. Income = $100,000 Income = $400,000 Income = $300,000 Income = $200,
28 Outcome Inequality Line up people Each person s from poorest lifetime to income richest. is $1 million. Income = $100,000 Income = $400,000 Income = $300,000 Income = $200,
29 Outcome Inequality Inequality at a point in time Inequality over time 29
30 Wealth inequality measures look at this but ignore this. 30
31 Gini Inequality Index $54,000 $600 Outcome equality is not necessarily good Sweden Afghanistan
32 Focusing on Outcome Inequality is Dangerous 1. Inequality diverts our attention from poverty. 2. Inequality at a point in time is not inequality over time. 3. Inequality ignores half the economy. 4. Equality is not necessarily good. vs. 32
33 Migration People tend to go where it s desirable to be. 33
34 Economic Freedom of North America (all levels of government) People move from less free states to more free states. Data source: Census Bureau, American Community Survey, B19083; Ashby, Bueno, and McMahon, Economic Freedom of North America 2011, Fraser Institute 34
35 Counterargument Perhaps there is something strange about Americans. Compare economic freedom across countries. 35
36 Poverty 36
37 Economic Freedom of the World (79 countries, ) Less free: 59% More free: 17% Data source: World Bank, Economic Freedom of the World, Fraser Institute 37
38 Counterargument Rich countries tend to be more free and have less poverty because they are rich. Look at the poor countries. 38
39 Economic Freedom of the World (25 poorest quartile countries, ) Less free: 81% More free: 64% Data source: World Bank, Economic Freedom of the World, Fraser Institute 39
40 Outcome Inequality 40
41 Economic Freedom of the World (123 countries, ) Less free: 43 More free: 35 Data source: CIA World Factbook, Economic Freedom of the World, Fraser Institute 41
42 Child Labor 42
43 Economic Freedom of the World (75 reporting countries, ) Less free: 28% More free: 13% Data source: Childinfo.org, Economic Freedom of the World, Fraser Institute 43
44 Counterargument Rich countries tend to be more free and can afford for their children not to work. Look at the poor countries. 44
45 Economic Freedom of the World (26 poorest quartile countries, ) Less free: 41% More free: 27% Data source: Childinfo.org, Economic Freedom of the World, Fraser Institute 45
46 Environment 46
47 Economic Freedom of the World (85 countries, 2007) Less free: 85 More free: 30 Data source: World Health Organization, Economic Freedom of the World, Fraser Institute 47
48 Economic Freedom of the World (136 countries, ) Less free: 7% More free: +7% Data source: Mongabay.com, Economic Freedom of the World, Fraser Institute 48
49 Rich country effect? 49
50 Economic Freedom of the World (29 poorest quartile countries, ) Less free: 13% More free: 7% Data source: Mongabay.com, Economic Freedom of the World, Fraser Institute 50
51 Peace 51
52 Global Peace Index (inverse scale) Economic Freedom of the World (133 countries, 2009) Countries that are more free are also more peaceful. Data source: Institute for Economics and Peace, Economic Freedom of the World, Fraser Institute 52
53 Counterargument Aggregation may be hiding important information. Look at cities. 53
54 Economic Freedom of US Cities (first vs fourth quartiles, 2009) Less free: 7.6% More free: 5.5% Data source: Stansel (2013), Census Bureau 54
55 Economic Freedom of US Cities (first vs fourth quartiles, 2009) Less free: $49,700 More free: $52,600 Data source: Stansel (2013), Census Bureau 55
56 Economic Freedom of US Cities (first vs fourth quartiles, 2009) Less free: 17.1% More free: 15.2% Data source: Stansel (2013), Census Bureau 56
57 Conclusion 57
58 Across countries, states, cities, and time, societies with more economic freedom have Less unemployment Higher incomes Less poverty Less inequality Less child labor Better environments More peace 58
59 But Free people will act selfishly! 59
60 Government: Prevent people from harming each other and do nothing else. More freedom greater ability to exploit each other, greater ability to harm each other, greater ability to despoil the environment. More freedom greater ability to cooperate, greater ability to help each other, greater ability to protect the environment. 60
61 Liberty, Equality, Prosperity November
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