Tusheti National Park

Transcription

1 Tusheti National Park NATIONAL REPORT ON THE STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT OF GEORGIA,

2 I SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS AFFECTING THE ENVIRONMENT SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS AFFECTING THE ENVIRONMENT 15

3 Tusheti National Park

4 i/1 SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS AFFECTING THE ENVIRONMENT

5 I/1. 1. POPULATION In 1992 the overall population of Georgia was about 5.5 million people. During the 1990 s the population decreased rapidly. Since 2000 the population has been more or less stable. The current population estimate (2009) is 4.6 million, however the figures for Abkhazia and Tskhinvali are not considered reliable. Approximately 53 per cent of the Georgian population live in urban areas. The average population density is 66 people per square kilometre, although the distribution is uneven. The population density is higher along the Black Sea coast and in river gorges. In highland regions population density is lower. Population, mln persons Population on January 1st Net migration. Figure 1.1. Population number (without Abkhazia and Tskhinvali region) and migration between 2000 and Source for this and the following figures (if not indicated): Statistical Yearbook of Georgia, GEOSTAT, 2009 Net migration, thousand persons I/1. 2. HOUSEHOLDS The main environmental areas on which households have an impact on a national scale are, energy consumption, water consumption, generation of waste and its disposal. The average occupancy in Georgia is 3.6 persons per household. This figure has reduced by 0.17 since 2000, while at the same time there has been an increase in the average household income. Increased household incomes are reflected in consumer trends with households purchasing a larger number of domestic appliances and an increase in the average level of car ownership, more use of energy and resources, and more generation of waste. As a result the impact of households on environment grows. This trend is likely to remain at least in the medium term. The environment is low on the priority list for the households. Despite income levels, practically all households rank health-care, social security, education, municipal and infrastructure issues above the environment (see Figure 1.2). 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Health care Education Pensions Pensions Housing Infrastructure Environment. Figure 1.2. Priority areas for state investment, based on a survey of households (The respondents selected two priorities). Source: Georgia Poverty Assessment. Document of the World Bank, NATIONAL REPORT ON THE STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT OF GEORGIA,

6 I/1. 3. ECONOMY Georgia s gross domestic product (GDP) grew rapidly during the five years prior to 2008, both in absolute and real figures. By 2008, nominal GDP had reached 12.8 billion US Dollars, GDP per purchasing power being billion USD. Despite this growth, Georgia still lags behind the most other countries of the region in terms of GDP, due to the catastrophic fall of the last decade of twentieth century. GDP, billion USD Thousands USD GDP Real GDP, change in comparison to previous year. Figure 1.3 Nominal gross domestic product (US dollars) and its real dynamics Figure % 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Estonia Latvia Lithuania Turkey Russian Federation Romania Kazakhstan Bulgaria Belarus Azerbaijan Turkmenistan Armenia Ukraine Georgia Moldova Uzbekistan Kirgizstan Tajikistan 1.4 Nominal per capita gross domestic product in Black Sea region and New Independent States. Source: International Monetary Fund, Real GDP change compared with previous year Nominal GDP per capita, thousands USD Nominal GDP per capita Real GDP. Figure 1.5 Government of Georgia microeconomical prognosis over the period Source: Government of Georgia, Basic Data and Directions (BDD) Tbilisi, % 16% 15% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Real GDP growth rate The Russian intervention of 2008 and the effect of the global financial crisis has had a double impact on the Georgian economy, replacing growth with the recession. The measures taken by the Georgian government during the economic crisis have been effective, and from 2010 the economic growth rate will return to figures similar to that before the crisis and inflation will be curtailed to single digit figures. The structure of Georgian GDP has changed significantly in the last 20 years. The share of GDP derived from industrial and agriculture has decreased considerably while the share derived from services and trade grew. 10% 14% 12% State Administration Industry Trade Transport and Communication Agriculture and Fishery Other Sectors. Figure 1.6 Georgian GDP structure according to sector SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS AFFECTING THE ENVIRONMENT 19

7 I/1. 4. INFRASTRUCTURE Georgia inherited a well-developed infrastructure from the Soviet Era. From 1990 until recently, investments in internal infrastructure were minimal, although some large trans-national projects have been implemented (for example the East-West pipe lines). The current program of the Georgian government (adopted by the Parliament in February 2009) underscores protection from the world economic crisis and determines three areas of spending for the 2.2 billion economic stimulus package; 1.45 billion GEL (Internal state resources and donor aid) for infrastructure projects; 0.5 billion GEL for direct donor projects and 0.25 billion GEL, that remains with the consumer as a result of the reduction of the tax burden. Recent capital investments have been focused on infrastructural development in the rapidly growing areas of transport and communications. These two areas have received almost half of the total investment in capital stock. The Government plans to finance infrastructure projects during by attracting foreign investments. This will promote business development and create new jobs. Transport, energy, water supply and sewage systems are set as priority areas for infrastructure projects. Transport and communication State administration and common assets (roads, constructions) Private assets (lodgements and vacation houses, economic activities of households) Industry Municipal, social and private services Constructions Real Estate operations, rent and commercial activities Trade, maintenance of cars, consumer products and personal goods Agriculture, hunting, forestry, fishery Financial activities Education Hotels and restaurants Health and social care. Figure 1.7 Structure of capital stock development in million GEL. Kolkheti National Park 20 NATIONAL REPORT ON THE STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT OF GEORGIA,

8 I/1. 5. KEY CHALLENGES Current economic trends suggest that pressures on the environmental will generally increase in Georgia within the medium term. In certain sectors such as transport, the pressures may become acute in a shorter timeframe. During the last five years the government actively encouraged private investment in business activities through a policy of reducing financial and bureaucratic barriers. As a result, Georgia s investment climate rating has improved considerably. This policy will continue in the medium term in addition to the implementation of new initiatives such as the creation of free industrial zones. Significant state investment in infrastructural projects is set to continue. Changes are also expected at a household s level. The growth of real GDP per capita will drive consummation growth; this in turn will result in increased loads and pressures on the environment. The key challenge for environmental policy makers is the identification and timely forecasting of environmental impacts, and to develop appropriate responses, including preventive measures, to mitigate their impacts. SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS AFFECTING THE ENVIRONMENT 21