The effect of APEC on the import trade of members v.s. non-members,
|
|
- Bathsheba Bryant
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 The effect of APEC on the import trade of members v.s. non-members, BY Fung Ka Ying Sandi Jiang Yang Applied Economics Option An Honors Degree Project Submitted to the School of Business in Partial Fulfillment of the Graduation Requirement for the Degree of Bachelor of Business Administration (Honors) Hong Kong Baptist University Hong Kong April 2009
2 Abstract The proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) not only has been encouraging trade liberalized but also aims to reduce trade barriers. People continued to debate about whether such establishment of RTAs is an effective way of achieving free trade RTAs are trade creation (increase total trade) or trade diversion (the extra trade occurs at the expense of non-members). The paper examines the effects of one of the RTAs called Asia- Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) by using a gravity model to see if it has been trade creating or trade diverting. Annual data of members and non-members of APEC for the year was used. The results show that the effects of Asia -Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) keep change in time. The RTA tended to be trade creating after 2001, that is, it fostered greater trade with trading partners and with the rest of the world. 2
3 Acknowledgement We would like to take the opportunity to thank our supervisor Dr. Yun-Kwong Kwok from Economics Department for his continuous guidance, support and contribution to this honor project. He kindly devoted his precious time in guiding us on the paper. We won t be able to complete the project without his help. Not only have we gained much knowledge, but also our independent mind and critical thinking are greater enhanced under his guidance. Fung Ka Ying Sandi Jiang Yang 3
4 Content 1. Introduction 2. Background of APEC 3. Literature Review 4. Methodology 5. Data 6. Estimation procedure and results 7. Limitation 8. Conclusion References Table Appendix 4
5 1. Introduction The enlargement of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) has been one of the major international developments in recent years. For example, European Union (EU), North American Free Trade Association (NAFTA), Association of South East Nation (ASEAN), etc, have shown successfully. Basically, these RTAs aim to reduce trade barriers in a preferential way, which is same as the World Trade Organization (WTO) has been encouraging trade liberalized. However, there is continued criticism as to whether such RTAs are ways to achieve free trade effectively, or the increased trade among members just caused less trade with non-members countries. Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), originally just a kind of forum for the dialogue between East and West coat of pacific ocean, now it has transformed and actively stepping toward the goal of free and open trade. Particularly, the APEC is including the two largest economies, China and the US, which should have a large impact of the world trade. This paper addresses the question of whether the APEC enhances welfare. This is examined by using a gravity model to analyze the effect of APEC on the import trade of both members and non members of APEC. To test whether an RTA enhances welfare or not, we will see if it is trade creation or trade diversion. Trade creation occurs when the introduction of an RTA allows an importing country to purchase products at lower cost than the country did in the past. No doubt, this benefits both the importing countries and the world as a whole. In contrast, trade diversion is the substitution of a more costly source of supply within an RTA for a less costly source outside, and this would negatively affect welfare. As the introduction of an RTA may have both trade creation and trade diversion effects, or either nor neither. Therefore, it is the net effect that needs to be assessed when deciding whether an RTA enhances or hinders welfare. This 5
6 paper empirically attempts to test for the existence of trade creation or trade diversion as a result of APEC by applying econometric gravity model and extends with tax, exchange rate, dummy variables in this paper. The rest of this paper is structured as follows. Section two introduces the background of APEC. Section three is the review of literature. Section four is the empirical methodology which gives a detailed demonstration of the gravity model that applied in the paper. Section five provides a description of the data used. Section six explains the estimation procedures and results. Section seven discusses the limitations of the model estimations. Section eight gives conclusion of the paper. 2. Background of APEC Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) is the earliest forum for facilitating economic growth, cooperation, trade and investment in the Asia-Pacific region. APEC operates on the basis of non-binding commitments, open dialogue and equal respect for the views of all participants. It is the only inter governmental grouping in the world. APEC has no treaty obligations required of its participants, which is different from the WTO or other multilateral trade bodies. APEC makes decision with consensus and commitment on a voluntary basis. APEC was launched in 1989 which aims to further enhance economic growth and prosperity for the region and to strengthen the Asia-Pacific community. APEC has 21 members - referred to as Member Economies - which account for approximately 40.5% of the world's population, approximately 54.2% of world GDP and about 43.7% of world trade 1. These 21 Member Economies are Australia, Brunei 1 Refers to: 6
7 Darussalam, Canada, Chile, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Peru, The Philippines, Russian, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, The United States and Viet Nam. Since its establishment, APEC has worked to reduce tariffs and other trade barriers across the Asia-Pacific region, creating efficient domestic economies and dramatically increasing exports. The key to achieve APEC s vision is referred to the Bogor Goals of free and open trade and investment in the Asia-Pacific by 2010 for industrialized economies and 2020 for developing economies. These goals were adopted by the political leaders at their 1994 meeting in Bogor, Indonesia. Through policy alignment and economic and technical cooperation, APEC also works to create an environment for the safe and efficient movement of goods, services and people across border of the region. APEC member economies generated nearly 70% of global economic growth, in order to sustain this growth, APEC member economies work together and promise to follow the commitment to open trade, investment and economic reform. Because of the reduced trade barriers and a more economically competitive region, the price of daily base goods and services are lower, APEC member economies on average enjoy lower cost of living. APEC works in three broad areas to achieve the Bogor goals, these three key areas are known as Three Pillars. They are: Trade and Investment Liberalization, Business facilitation and Economic and Technical Cooperation. The outcomes of these three areas enable APEC member economies to strengthen their economies by pooling resources within the region and achieving efficiencies. Consumers in the APEC region also get tangible benefit through greater choices in the market place, 7
8 cheaper goods and services, increased training and employment opportunities and improved to access to international markets. The objective of Borgor has not been exactly practice until Jun 2001, when APEC Trade Ministers endorsed a set of APEC Trade Facilitation Principles which was developed by an ad hoc task force led by Hong Kong. The APEC Trade Facilitation Principle reaffirmed the importance in achieving the Bogor goal of free and open trade and investment in the Asia-Pacific, in providing significant benefits for both governments and business, and in generating welfare gains for the economy as a whole. 3. Literature Review The Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) is considered to be a step toward free trade and welfare enhancing. The RTAs aim not only to reduce trade barriers to members but also did not increase any trade barriers to non-members. However, Viner (1995) brought an idea that the RTAs lead to both trade creation and trade diversion. Trade creation happens when the formation of an RTA allows an importing country to purchase products at lower cost than was previously the case. This benefits both the importing country and the whole world even though the countries are non-members of the RTA. But trade diversion is the substitution of a more costly source of supply within the RTA for a less costly source outside, and this would result negatively affect welfare. As an RTA will lead to both trade creation and trade diversion effects, we have to assess the net effect in order to decide whether it enhances welfare. Later, Johnson (1960) developed an equilibrium diagram to explain the economic effects of trade creation and trade diversion. The partial equilibrium 8
9 diagram shows that the affect of an RTA is a sum of several effects, and that countries may be better or worse off in markets where trade is diverted. Johnson s conclusions are confirmed when using recent techniques to compute the general equilibrium models. Pomfret (1997) and Schiff and Winters (2003) both have good expositions of Johnson s partial equilibrium diagram. Low (2003) and Lloyd and MacLaren (2004) have an excellent survey article of analyzing the RTAs. 2 Comparing with other RTAs in the world, such as the Australian and New Zealand Closer Economic Relations (CER), the Southern Cone Common Market (MERCOSUR) and the North American Free Trade Association (NAFTA) which have been established to reduce trade protection among member states, APEC is a little different of structure. APEC was built on the concept of open regionalism, which means that any members reducing its trade barriers to other members should offer the same reductions to non-members. 4. Methodology 4.1 Gravity models Gravity model is the most common empirical tool to use to estimate the effect of RTAs. They are very popular in analyzing economic phenomena related to the flow of goods and/or services. A gravity model involves regressing trade on a number of explanatory variables, then using dummy variables to ascertain whether this relationship is affected by the existence of RTAs. Beckerman (1956), Anderson (1979), Bergstrand (1989), Oguledo and Macphee (1994), Frankel and Wei (1995), Kreinin and Plummer (1998), Krueger (1999), Cernat (2001), Havemann, Nair- Reichert, and Thursby (2003), Adams, Dee, Gali, and McGuire (2003), Filippini and 2 The literature review cited from: Bhavish Jugurnath, Mark Stewart and Robert Brooks. (2007). Asia/Pacific Regional Trade Agreements: An empirical study. ScienceDirct: Journal of Asian Economics
10 Molini (2003) and Tang (2005) are just some of the studies which have used gravity models to estimate the trade creation and trade diversion effects of various RTAs, including the North American Free Trade Association (NAFTA), the Southern Cone Common Market (MERCOSUR), the Australian and New Zealand Closer Economic Relations (CER) and the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN). 3 Trade volume is directly related to GDP, population and land area of the countries involved, as well as transaction costs which are usually proxied by distance and cultural similarities (a common language is often used). This paper tests these factors and adds the cost variables of the exchange rate and taxes to the list to decide the effect of APEC on its members and non-members. 4.2 Dependent variables Imports Typical gravity model uses total trade (imports plus exports) as the dependent variable, but in this paper, we focus on imports since they are more closely substitute the effects of domestic trade barriers. The real import is obtained and deflated by the GDP deflator to account for inflation. 4.3 Independent variables Gross Domestic Product, GDP In this model, we have two GDP variables, GDP i for the importing country 4 and GDP j for the exporting country. GDP deflator is used to account for inflation then obtains the real GDP. It is anticipated that richer countries trade more in term of 3 The literature review cited from: Bhavish Jugurnath, Mark Stewart and Robert Brooks. (2007). Asia/Pacific Regional Trade Agreements: An empirical study. ScienceDirect: Journal of Asian Economics Although we know that some members of APEC are not officially be treated as independent countries but economies, in our regression, we simply name them as country for generally speaking. 10
11 goods and services. Therefore, we expect a positive relationship between these variables and imports to country i Population, POP There are also two variables here, POP i for the importing country and POP j for the exporting country. It is expected that countries with larger populations will both import and export more. But Aitken (1973) suggested that the larger a country s population, the larger the domestic market compares to the foreign market, so potential export supply must be smaller. However, Bergstand (1989) pointed out that larger population would allow for economies of scale, which may increase the price competitiveness of the exporter s production, causing higher exports. Therefore, the sign on the coefficient of population of the exporter may be indeterminate, while expecting the sign for the importer is positive Distance, DIST DIST ij is the geographical distance between the capital cities of the importing country i and the exporting country j. The physical distance between the trading countries represent the transport cost, therefore, it is expected DIST would be negatively correlated with trade Surface area, AREA This is the total land area of a country, including areas under inland bodies of water and coastal waterways. AREA i is the surface area of the importing country, and AREA j is for the exporting country. We anticipate that larger countries will both 5 Note that through out the analysis, i refers to the importing country, while j refers to the exporting country. 11
12 import and export more. But relative size may also be important for comparative advantage reasons. Therefore, the sign for the AREA coefficients may also be indeterminate Exchange rate, EXR EXR i is the exchange rate of the importer, and EXR j is for the exporter. EXR is defined as the local currency value per $US divided by the US GDP deflator. For country i, an increase in EXR i represents a depreciation of the local currency or a fall of that country s relative price, so the coefficient of it is expected to be negative. And we expect a positive sign for country j Taxes on goods and services, TAX TAX i is the simple average final bound for the importer, and TAX j is for the exporter. Simple average final bound is the simple average of final bound duties excluding unbound tariff lines. 6 Since all taxes (except lump sum taxes) are distorting, it is expected that both of these variables have a negative relationship with the imports to country i Language, LANG Linnermann (1966) stated that a common language between two countries would influence the volume of trade. 7 LANG ij is a dummy variable which is assigned a value of one if the two trading countries have the same official language and zero otherwise. We anticipate countries which have a common language will trade more. Therefore, a positive relationship is expected. 6 Refers to: 7 Linnermann, H. (1966). An economic study in international trade flows. Amsterdam: North Holland. 12
13 4.4 Model specification The basic gravity model uses the above variables and is shown as Eq. (1) Log IMPORT ijt = α 0 + α 1 log GDP it + α 2 log GDP jt + α 3 log POP it + α 4 log POP jt + α 5 log DIST ij + α 6 log AREA i + α 7 log AREA j + α 8 log EXR it + α 9 log EXR jt + α 10 TAX it + α 11 TAX jt + α 12 LANG ij + µ ijt (1) We use a log specification because it gives the best results typically. And i is the importing country, while j is the exporting country. To examine the effects of APEC within the framework of this equation, dummy variables are then added. When this technique has been used by the others, a consensus that RTAs are generally trade creating has emerged. For instance, Frankel and Wei (1995) and Frankel (1997) showed trade creation in Asian and in North American trading blocs. And a recent paper by Rose (2000) also found that RTAs, were trade creating in general. However, Hassan (2001) found evidence of trade diversion for the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). 8 To look at the effects of APEC, the basic gravity model outlined in Eq. (1) is extended using three dummy variables. The dummy variables take value of one if the county is a member of APEC and zero otherwise, regardless of the membership status of the trading partners. Eq. (2) is shown as below. 8 The literature review cited from: Bhavish Jugurnath, Mark Stewart and Robert Brooks. (2007). Asia/Pacific Regional Trade Agreements: An empirical study. ScienceDirect: Journal of Asian Economics
14 Log IMPORT ij = the above +α 13 APEC i APEC j + α 14 APEC i +α 15 APEC j (2) APEC i takes the value of one if the importing country i is a member of APEC and zero otherwise. If we get a positive coefficient for this variable (α 14 >0), it means countries that are members of APEC will import more than an equivalent country that is not a member, and this would imply that APEC is trade creating. The second dummy variable, APEC j takes the value of of one if the exporting country j is a member of APEC and zero otherwise. If α 15 > 0, countries are importing more from other countries which are members of APEC, and again this indicates that APEC is trade creating. When positive coefficient on α 14 and α 15 imply trade creation, negative coefficient means that trade is lower, and the formation of APEC may be trade diverting. If the dummy variable, APEC i APEC j values one, it means both the importing country and exporting country j are members of APEC. Therefore, α 13 > 0 means that APEC countries import more from countries that are also members of APEC. An indication would be that, if α 14 and α 15 are significant and negative, while α 13 is significant and positive, APEC is trade diverting. 4.5 Random-effects model (REM) or Error-components model In this paper, the gravity model is examined with many different countries in different years. Therefore, we might wish to choose a pooled cross-section and timeseries model in which error terms may be correlated across time and individual units. So, we select the random-effects model instead of the ordinary least square (OLS) pooled data model to run regression for the gravity model. The random-effects model is as follows: 14
15 Y it = α i + βx it + e it for i =1, 2,, N (number of cross-section units) and t =1, 2,, T (number of time periods) and e it = u i + v t + w it 2 Where u i ~ N(0, σ u ) = cross-section error component 2 v t ~ N(0, σ v ) = time-series error component 2 w it ~ N(0, σ w ) = combined error component Here the individual error components are assumed to be uncorrelated with each other and not auto-correlated across both cross-section units and time periods. Now the intercept term in the model is treated and decomposed into two random variables, one is a time series variable and the other is a cross-section variable. 5. Data The Data used in this paper covers a period of 18 years from 1990 to 2007 and includes 10 APEC member countries and 6 non-member countries. The 9 member countries that we choose are Australia, Canada, China, Japan, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, The Philippines, Singapore and United States. The 6 non-member countries that we choose are Brazil, Egypt, France, Germany, India and United Kingdom. It can be seen from the Appendix that all these 16 countries selected are mostly ranked as the top 50 GDP countries. They are very outstanding countries of 15
16 trade in the whole world. The countries have very close export and import relationships with each other. Some countries even become main export and import partners. Advanced & high income OECD countries 9 Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, New Zealand, Singapore, United Kingdom and United States Developing countries Brazil, China, Egypt, India, Malaysia and Philippines Not only did these selected countries join the APEC, they joined other RTAs as well. These countries remain active trading countries over the world. The following table shows the list of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs). PTA 10 ASEAN or the AFTA (Association of South East Asian Nations or the Asian Free Trade Association) APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) CER (Australia-New Zealand, Closer Economic Relations Trade Agreement) MERCOSUR (Southern Cone Common Market) NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) Date of Selected Countries Entry 1967 Malaysia, Philippines and Singapore 1989 Australia, Canada, China (1991), Japan, Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore and United States 1983 Australia and New Zealand 1991 Brazil 1994 Canada and United States are chosen. Considering that the paper has limited data, countries from all over the world 9 OECD: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development 10 PTA: Preferential trading area, a trading bloc which gives preferential access to certain products from certain countries 16
17 Continents Asia Africa North America South America Europe Oceania Selected Countries China, India, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines and Singapore Egypt United States Brazil France, Germany and United Kingdom Australia and New Zealand Hence, these total 16 countries are taken into the consideration in the study. The data on GDP, populations and exchange rate are obtained from the International Financial Statistics of International Monetary Fund. And the import data between countries are from the Direction of Trade Statistics of International Monetary Fund. The other variables, definitions and sources are listed in Table 1. Insert Table 1 6. Estimation procedure and results The data used in this paper covers a period of 18 years from 1990 to 2007 and includes 16 countries from both members and non-members of APEC. This model is estimated for three sub-periods: , and We use the pool data to estimate a single regression equation, which allow the coefficients to be different in the three group periods. The model is also estimated for the entire period using the full panel. The results of these equations are presented in Tables 2 and 3. 17
18 Insert Table 2 Insert Table The basic gravity model results Table 2 reports the basic gravity model results when using pooled data for the three groups of observations as well as for the entire sample of In general, these equations fit the data well, most of the individual coefficients are statistically significant, and most of the signs satisfy the theoretical estimations, indicating that the proposed explanatory variables are significantly related to bilateral trade. The coefficients of determination (R 2 ) range between 31% and 90%.The F test (p-value) results show that collectively the models are highly significant. These results are in line with the usual gravity model findings of other papers. Table 2 shows that the coefficients on GDP i and GDP j are all significant and positively signed. And the population coefficients are all positively signed and are always significant. It indicates that, richer and more populace countries tend to trade more. Also, as we expect for the coefficients of the distance variables, DIST ij are all significant and negatively signed. This tells us that transportation costs play an important role when we determine the volume of trade between countries. The coefficients on AREA i and AREA j are all negatively signed and are almost always significant. Frankel (1997) also found a similar result to this, and he suggested it was the reason that large countries tend to have more natural resources and they often trade less with others. The coefficients on LANG ij are all significant and positive. This implies that countries with common language have cultural similarities, so their trade contract will be easier to make. 18
19 When we come to the exchange rate, let s recall that an increase in EXR i and EXR j infers a depreciation of the real exchange rate. In line with our expectations the coefficients associated with the importing country, EXR i are all negative and almost always significant, while EXR j are mostly positive and significant for the earlier years , as well as for the whole period The coefficients on taxes are always negative and significant. This implies that higher taxes reduce trade between countries, which is in line with our expectations. 6.2 The gravity model including APEC The estimates for APEC show that this RTA had a mostly positive effect for the whole world during the period But the main purpose of this paper is to look into the details of different sub-periods. For the sub-period and , the coefficients on APEC i, APEC j and APEC i APEC j are positive, while the probability for APEC j is not significant. This indicates that the effect of APEC to the selected countries was not that obvious when the RTA has just formed. And we can not conclude whether APEC was trade creating or trade diverting for the following two reasons. First, APEC began as an informal dialogue group or a forum between countries in Then it took APEC a few starting years to set its vision which is the Bogor Goals of promoting for free and open trade between members and Individual Action Plans. Second, though APEC followed the aim of WTO to encourage trade liberalization, it was formed on a voluntarily base. Members are not forced to follow all the actions. But in the paper of Bhavish Jugurnath, Mark Steward, Robert Brooks (2007) shows that APEC was trade diversion in these two sub-periods. 19
20 For the sub-period , the result changed a lot. The coefficients on APEC i, APEC j and APEC i APEC j are positive and significant. This represents that APEC became trade creating. This may result from the objective of Borgor in Jun 2001 when APEC Trade Ministers endorsed a set of APEC Trade Facilitation Principles. The APEC Trade Facilitation aims to promote the application of the APEC Business Travel Card (ABTC). The APEC travel card was originally trialed in 1997 there were only a few members joined the scheme. But in the year 2001, the scheme was expanded to most of the members. And now there are 19 economies currently participating in the ABTC Scheme: Australia Brunei, Darussalam, Chile, China, Hong Kong (China), Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, PNG, Peru, Philippines, Singapore, Chinese Taipei, Thailand and Vietnam. The ABTC aims to provide fast and efficient travel for business people within the APEC region. Card holders enjoy fast entry and exit through special APEC lanes at major airports, not needing to individually apply for visas for entry permits each time when business person travels and card is valid for three years from first issue. Also the e-apec Strategy was adopted in 2001, which sets out the agenda to strengthen the structures of market and institutions, facilitate infrastructure investment and technology for on-line transactions and promote entrepreneurship. The effect of APEC may change over time. It is believed that the trade creation effect of APEC will become stronger in the future. For example, the advanced APEC members have completed their tariff reductions until 2010, while the developing members have completed until
21 7. Limitations of the model estimations In this paper, all GDP are obtained from the International Financial Statistics, since they are in national currency, for the ease of comparisons, we have to convert the data into US dollars by using the exchange rate between two countries, and the exchange rates are always volatile and frequently fluctuated. Another limitation is that we only include 16 countries in our estimations for this paper, so the results for the gravity model may not perfectly reflect our expectations. Also, policies of the countries which may be related to trade are not being considered in our model, in fact, these policies may affect the volume of the trade flows. The last limitation is that the data of taxes (simple average of final bound duties) we obtained from the WTO only provided the data of 2006 and So we use the data of 2006 for all the years and the data of 2008 for And this limits our observation for the effect of taxes cause to trade flows. 8. Conclusion This paper examines bilateral trade of APEC based on a gravity model, with data of 16 countries from 1990 to 2007 which involves 10 members and 6 nonmembers. And analyze the effect of APEC by three sub-periods: , and The estimated coefficients from the basic gravity model show that GDP, population, distance between capital cities of trading partners, cultural similarity (a common official language) and physical area explain much cross country trade. Some price variables, such as real exchange rate and taxes are also used in this study. And the study finds that the final results line up with prior expectations. That is, taxes have a negative effect towards free trade. The movements of real exchange rate 21
22 have mostly the expected effect. The depreciation of an economy s currency encourages exports while discourages imports. From the result of the regression estimated in this paper that the APEC did not have a significant effect to its member and non-member for the period of and It can not be concluding that whether APEC was trade creating or trade diverting. This is because that APEC was acted as a forum in the early years and it was built on a base of voluntary. We can see significant trade creation among members and non-members of APEC during the period when APEC Trade Facilitation Principles and e- APEC Strategy was adopted in As well as the expanded application of APEC Business Travel Card brings fast and efficient travel for business people within the APEC region. The study expects that the trade creating effect of APEC will become stronger in the future as the advanced APEC members have completed their tariff reductions until 2010, and the developing members have completed their tariff reductions until
23 Reference: APEC Business Travel Card (ABTC), APEC Official Website, Area and Population of Countries, Bhavish Jugurnath, Mark Stewart and Robert Brooks. (2007). Asia/ Pacific Regional Trade Agreements: An empirical study. ScienceDirect: Journal of Asian Economics Database and Browser: Direction of Trade Statistics. International Monetary Fund. Database and Browse: International Financial Statistics. International Monetary Fund. Giorgio Fazio, Ronald MacDonald and Jacques Melitz. (2005).Trade Costs, Trade Balances and Current Accounts: An Application of Gravity to Multilateral Trade. Presented at CESifo Area conference on Macro, Money & International Finance, February. Havemann, J. (2002). International Trade Data , TradeData.html International Monetary Fund Home Page, Jeffrey A. Frankel, Shang-Jin Wei and Ernesto Stein. (1994). APEC and Regional Trading Arrangements in the Pacific. Institute for Inernational Economics. Linnermann, H. (1966). An economic study in international trade flows. Amsterdam: North Holland. László Mátyás. (1998). The Gravity Model: Some Econometric Considerations. Budapest University of Economics, and Erudite, Université de Paris XII. Matthieu Bussière, Jarko Fidrmuc and Bernd Schnatz. (2008). EU Enlargement and Trade Integration: Lessons from a Gravity Model. Rebiew of Development Economics 12(3) Measuring Worth, Richard E. Feinberg. (2003). Political Economy of United States Free Trade Arrangements. Blackwell Publishing Ltd. Tingsong Jiang, Warwick J. Mckibbin. (2008). What Does a Free Trade Area of the Asia- Pacific Mean to China. Brookings Global Economy and Development. 23
24 Vinod K. Aggarwal. (2007). Chapter 3: The Political Economy of a Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific: A U.S. Perspective. An APEC Trade Agenda? The Political Economy of a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific. The World Bank, The World Factbook of Central Intelligence Agency, WTO website, 24
25 Table 1: Variables, definitions and sources Variables Expected signs Definitions Measures Sources IMPORT It is counted as the total of bilateral trade that is total trade, consisting of merchandise trade and services trade divided by the GDP deflator. GDP + Sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is counted without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources. Then deflated by the GDP deflator to obtain the real GDP. POP +/- Total population is based on the de facto definition of population, which calculates all residents regardless of legal status or citizenship, except for refugees not permanently settled in the country of asylum, whom are generally considered part of the population of their country of origin. DIST - Distance between capital cities of pairs of countries. Million US$ Million US$ Millions International Monetary Fund, Direction of Trade Statistics(2008) International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics(2008) International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics(2008) km Havemann (2002) International trade website and Fitzpatrick and Modlin (1986) book of direct line distances AREA -/? A country s total area. Km 2 Infoplease EXR +/- It refers to the rate determined in the legally sanctioned exchange market. It is calculated as an annual average (local currency units relative to the US dollar). The US GDP deflator is used to account for inflation. Average units International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics(2008) 25
26 Table 2 Basic gravity model estimates - pooled regression analysis Variable Expected signs C *** *** *** *** GDPi *** *** *** *** GDPj *** *** *** *** POPi ** POPj? *** *** *** *** DISTij *** *** *** *** AREAi - /? *** *** *** *** AREAj - /? ** *** *** LANGij * ** ** *** EXRi *** ** * EXRj *** * *** TAXi *** TAXj *** *** *** *** Weighted Statistics R-squared Adjusted R-squared Prob(F-statistic) DW stat Cross-sections Total pool observations Dependent variable: IMPORT. Method: pooled random effects. *p<0.10, **p<0.05, ***p<0.001, significant at the 10%, 5% and 1% level, respectively. * Base on the personal judgment, import data has been calculated by two ways, one is to deflate import by the GDP deflator of the country in question, and the other one is to deflate import by the US GDP deflator. Since we have done a lot of trial and error, the results of using the GDP deflator of the country in question shows the best result, and we believe that this way of calculating the import data fit the model the most, so we choose this to present in the paper. The results of using the US GDP deflator are shown in Appendix 2 for comparison. 26
27 Table 3 Extended gravity model estimates on APEC - pooled regression analysis Variable Expected signs C *** *** *** *** GDPi *** *** *** *** GDPj *** *** *** *** POPi ** *** *** *** POPj? *** *** *** *** DISTij *** *** *** *** AREAi - /? *** *** *** *** AREAj - /? *** *** *** LANGij * ** *** *** EXRi *** *** *** EXRj *** ** *** TAXi ** TAXj *** *** ** *** APECi *** ** ** *** APECj *** *** APECij ** *** *** * Weighted Statistics R-squared Adjusted R-squared Prob(F-statistic) DW stat Cross-sections Total pool observations Dependent variable: IMPORT. Method: pooled random effects. *p<0.10, **p<0.05, ***p<0.001, significant at the 10%, 5% and 1% level, respectively. 27
28 Appendix 1 Information about Countries 11 Country Rank by GDP (IMF2007) Australia 15 Coal, gold, meat, wool, alumina, iron ore, wheat, machinery and transport equipment Canada 9 Motor vehicles and parts, industrial machinery, aircraft, telecommunications equipment, electronics China 4 Office machines, data Export Main Export Partners Import Main Import Partners processing equipment, Telecommunications equipment Japan 2 Cars, electronic devices and computers Korea 14 Electronic products, machinery and transport equipment Japan 20.3%, China 11.5%, Korea 7.9%, US 6.7%, New Zealand 6.5%, India 5% US 78.9%, UK 2.8%, China 2.1% US 19.1%, Hong Kong, 15.1%, Japan 8.4%, Korea 4.6%, Germany 4% US 20.4%, China 15.3%, Korea 7.6%, Taiwan 6.3%, Hong Kong 5.4% China 22%, US 12.5%, Japan 7.1% Machinery and transport equipment, computers and office machines, telecommunication lasers Machinery and equipment, motor vehicles and parts, electronics, crude oil, chemicals, electricity Electrical machinery, petroleum and related products, professional and scientific instruments Oil, foodstuffs, and wood Machinery, electronics equipment US 13.9%, China 13.7%, Japan 11%, Singapore 5.6%, Germany 5.6% US 54.1%, China 9.4%, Mexico 4.2% Japan 14%, Korea 10.9%, Taiwan 10.5%, US 7.3%, Germany 4.7% China 20.5%, US 11.6%, Saudi Arabia 5.7%, UAE 5.2%, Australia 5%, Korea 4.4% China 17.7, Japan 16%, US 10.7%, Saudi Arabia 5.9% 11 Refers to: 28
29 Country Rank by GDP (IMF2007) Malaysia 39 Electronic products, petroleum products, coconut oil, fruits New Zealand 51 Tourism destination, dairy products, meat, wood, fish and machinery Philippines 46 Semiconductors and electronic products, transport equipment, garments, copper products, petroleum products, coconut oil, fruits Singapore 45 Machinery and Export Main Export Partners Import Main Import Partners equipment (including electronics), consumer goods, chemicals, mineral fuels United States 1 Industrial supplies, production machinery and equipment US 15.6%, Singapore 14.6%, Japan 9.1%, China 8.8%, Thailand 5%, Hong Kong 4.6% Australia 19.6%, US 14.3%, Japan 11.4%, China 6. 3%, UK 5.1% US 17%, Japan 14.5%, Hong Kong 11.5%, China 11.4%, Singapore 6.2%, Malaysia 5%, Germany 4.3% Malaysia 12.9%, Hong Kong 10.5%, Indonesia 9.8%, China 9.7%, US 8.9%, Japan 4.8% Canada 20.1%, Mexico 11.7%, China 5.5%, Japan 5.1%, Germany 4.2%, UK 4.1% Machinery, electronics and electronic equipment, chemicals Machinery and equipment, vehicles and aircraft, petroleum, electronics Electronic products, mineral fuels, machinery and transport equipment, iron and steel, textile fabrics, grains, Machinery and equipment, mineral fuels, chemicals, foodstuffs Non-auto consumer goods, fuels, production machinery and equipment Japan 13%, China 12.9%, Singapore 11.5%, US 10.8%, Taiwan 5.7%, Thailand 5.3%, Korea 4.9% Germany 4.6% Australia 28.6%, Japan 10.7%, US 10%, China 6.6%, Germany 4.2%, Singapore 4.1% Japan 12.3%, US 14.1%, Singapore 11.2%, Taiwan 7.2%, Saudi Arabia 6.4%, Korea 5.9%, Malaysia 4.1% Malaysia 13.1%, US 12.5%, China 12.1%, Japan 8.2%, Taiwan 5.9%, Indonesia 5.6%, Korea 4.9% China 16.1%, Canada 16.0%, Mexico 10.3%, Japan 6.6%, Germany 4.7% 29
30 Country Rank by GDP (IMF2007) Brazil 10 Transport equipment, iron ore, soybeans, footwear, coffee, autos, automotive parts, machinery Egypt 52 Crude oil and petroleum products, cotton, textiles, metal products, chemicals France 6 Machinery and transportation equipment, aircraft, plastics, chemicals, iron and steel, beverages Germany 3 Machinery, vehicles, Export Main Export Partners Import Main Import Partners chemicals, metals and manufactures US 15.8%, Argentina 9.9%, China 7.9%, Netherlands 5.4%, Germany 4.7% US 9.7%, Italy 9,5%, Spain 7,6%, Syria 5.5%, Saudi Arabia 4.9%, UK 4.2% Germany 14.7%, Spain 9.6%, Italy 8.7%, UK 8.3%, US 7.2%, Belgium 7.1% France 9.7%, US 7.5%, UK 7.3%, Italy 6.7%, Netherlands 6.4%, Austria 5.4%, Belgium 5.3%, Spain 5% Machinery, electrical and transport equipment, chemical products, oil, automotive parts, electronics Machinery and equipment, foodstuffs, chemicals, wood products, fuels Machinery and equipment vehicles, crude oil, aircraft, plastics, chemicals Machinery, vehicles, chemicals, foodstuffs, textiles, metals US 11.9%, China 10.6%, Argentina 9.0%, Germany 7.5%, Nigeria 4.5%, Japan, 4.0% US 11.7%, China 9,7%, Italy 6.4%, Germany 6.3%, Saudi Arabia 4.7%, Russia 4.3% Germany 18.9%, Belgium, 10.7%, Italy 8,2%, Spain 7%, Netherlands 6.5%, UK 5.9%, US 5.1% Netherlands 12%, France 8,6%, Belgium 7.8%, China 6.2%, Italy 5.8%, UK 5.6%, US 4.5%, Austria 4.4% 30
31 Country Rank by GDP (IMF2007) India 12 Petroleum products, textile goods, gems and jewelry Export Main Export Partners US 15%, China 8.7%, UAE 8.7%, UK 4.4% United Kingdom 5 Machinery and transportation equipment, US 15%, Germany 11%, France 10%, Ireland 7%, Netherlands 6%, Belgium 6%, Italy 4% Import Main Import Partners Crude oil, China 10.6%, US machinery, gems, 7.8%, Germany fertilizer, chemicals 4.4%, Singapore 4.4% Machinery, Germany 14.2%, vehicles, chemicals US 8.6%, China 7.3%, Netherlands 7.3%, France 6.9%, Belgium 4.7%, Norway 4.7% 31
32 Appendix 2 (Import Data= Import (Measured by US dollars) / US GDP Deflator) Basic gravity model estimates - pooled regression analysis Variable Expected signs C *** *** *** *** GDPi *** *** *** *** GDPj *** *** *** *** POPi *** *** POPj? *** *** *** *** DISTij *** *** *** *** AREAi - /? ** *** ** AREAj - /? ** ** *** *** LANGij ** ** ** *** EXRi *** * *** EXRj *** * *** TAXi *** *** *** TAXj *** *** *** *** Weighted Statistics R-squared Adjusted R-squared Prob(F-statistic) DW stat Cross-sections Total pool observations Dependent variable: IMPORT. Method: pooled random effects. *p<0.10, **p<0.05, ***p<0.001, significant at the 10%, 5% and 1% level, respectively. 32
33 Extended gravity model estimates on APEC - pooled regression analysis Variable Expected signs C ,0000*** *** *** *** GDPi *** *** *** *** GDPj *** *** *** *** POPi *** *** *** * POPj? *** *** *** *** DISTij ** *** *** *** AREAi - /? ** *** *** AREAj - /? ** *** *** *** LANGij ** ** *** EXRi *** *** *** *** EXRj *** *** *** TAXi *** *** *** TAXj *** *** ** *** APECi ** ** APECj ** *** APECij ** *** *** * Weighted Statistics R-squared Adjusted R-squared Prob(F-statistic) DW stat Cross-sections Total pool observations Dependent variable: IMPORT. Method: pooled random effects. *p<0.10, **p<0.05, ***p<0.001, significant at the 10%, 5% and 1% level, respectively. 33
Lecture 4 Multilateralism and Regionalism. Hyun-Hoon Lee Professor Kangwon National University
Lecture 4 Multilateralism and Regionalism Hyun-Hoon Lee Professor Kangwon National University 1 The World Trade Organization (WTO) General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) A multilateral agreement
More informationProliferation of FTAs in East Asia
Proliferation of FTAs in East Asia Shujiro URATA Waseda University and RIETI April 8, 2005 Contents I. Introduction II. Regionalization in East Asia III. Recent Surge of FTAs in East Asia IV. The Factors
More informationRules of Origin Process (Chile)
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Secretariat 2004/SOM1/SCCP1/060 Agenda Item: 10.4 Rules of Origin Process (Chile) Sub-Committee on Customs Procedures Santiago, Chile 25-27 February 2004 BACKGROUND The
More informationEthnic networks and trade: Intensive vs. extensive margins
MPRA Munich Personal RePEc Archive Ethnic networks and trade: Intensive vs. extensive margins Cletus C Coughlin and Howard J. Wall 13. January 2011 Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/30758/ MPRA
More informationCharting Indonesia s Economy, 1H 2017
Charting Indonesia s Economy, 1H 2017 Designed to help executives interpret economic numbers and incorporate them into company s planning. Publication Date: January 3 rd, 2017 Next Issue: To be published
More informationTrans-Pacific Trade and Investment Relations Region Is Key Driver of Global Economic Growth
Trans-Pacific Trade and Investment Relations Region Is Key Driver of Global Economic Growth Background The Asia-Pacific region is a key driver of global economic growth, representing nearly half of the
More informationImpact of Trade blocs on Agricultural Trade and Policy Implications. for China: Gravity Model Study. Lin SUN
Impact of Trade blocs on Agricultural Trade and Policy Implications for China: Gravity Model Study Lin SUN Department of Economics, College of Business Administration Zhejiang University of Technology
More informationThe Gravity Model on EU Countries An Econometric Approach
European Journal of Sustainable Development (2014), 3, 3, 149-158 ISSN: 2239-5938 Doi: 10.14207/ejsd.2014.v3n3p149 The Gravity Model on EU Countries An Econometric Approach Marku Megi 1 ABSTRACT Foreign
More informationCharting South Korea s Economy, 1H 2017
Charting South Korea s Economy, 1H 2017 Designed to help executives interpret economic numbers and incorporate them into company s planning. Publication Date: January 3 rd, 2017 Next Issue: To be published
More informationSEPTEMBER TRADE UPDATE ASIA TAKES THE LEAD
Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized SEPTEMBER TRADE WATCH SEPTEMBER TRADE UPDATE ASIA TAKES THE LEAD All regions show an
More informationEconomic integration: an agreement between
Chapter 8 Economic integration: an agreement between or amongst nations within an economic bloc to reduce and ultimately remove tariff and nontariff barriers to the free flow of products, capital, and
More informationFree Trade Vision for East Asia
CEAC Commentary introduces outstanding news analyses and noteworthy opinions in Japan, but it does not represent the views of CEAC as an institution. April 28, 2005 Free Trade Vision for East Asia By MATSUDA
More information3) The European Union is an example of integration. A) regional B) relative C) global D) bilateral
1 International Business: Environments and Operations Chapter 7 Economic Integration and Cooperation Multiple Choice: Circle the one best choice according to the textbook. 1) integration is the political
More informationCharting Singapore s Economy, 1H 2017
Charting Singapore s Economy, 1H 2017 Designed to help executives interpret economic numbers and incorporate them into company s planning. Publication Date: January 3 rd, 2017 Next Issue: To be published
More informationJapan s Policy to Strengthen Economic Partnership. November 2003
Japan s Policy to Strengthen Economic Partnership November 2003 1. Basic Structure of Japan s External Economic Policy -Promoting Economic Partnership Agreements with closely related countries and regions
More informationCapitalizing on Global and Regional Integration. Chapter 8
Capitalizing on Global and Regional Integration Chapter 8 Objectives Importance of economic integration Global integration Regional integration Regional organizations of interest Implications for action
More informationCharting Cambodia s Economy
Charting Cambodia s Economy Designed to help executives catch up with the economy and incorporate macro impacts into company s planning. Annual subscription includes 2 semiannual issues published in June
More informationGlobal Trends in Location Selection Final results for 2005
Global Business Services Plant Location International Global Trends in Location Selection Final results for 2005 September, 2006 Global Business Services Plant Location International 1. Global Overview
More informationCharting Australia s Economy
Charting Australia s Economy Designed to help executives catch up with the economy and incorporate macro impacts into company s planning. Annual subscription includes 2 semiannual issues published in June
More informationSize of Regional Trade Agreements and Regional Trade Bias
Size of Regional Trade Agreements and Regional Trade Bias Michele Fratianni * and Chang Hoon Oh** *Indiana University and Università Politecnica delle Marche **Indiana University Abstract We test the relationship
More informationCharting Philippines Economy, 1H 2017
Charting Philippines Economy, 1H 2017 Designed to help executives interpret economic numbers and incorporate them into company s planning. Publication Date: January 3 rd, 2017 Next Issue: To be published
More informationThe Trade Liberalization Effects of Regional Trade Agreements* Volker Nitsch Free University Berlin. Daniel M. Sturm. University of Munich
December 2, 2005 The Trade Liberalization Effects of Regional Trade Agreements* Volker Nitsch Free University Berlin Daniel M. Sturm University of Munich and CEPR Abstract Recent research suggests that
More informationAPEC s Bogor Goals Mid-Term Stock Taking and Tariff Reduction
APEC Study Center Consortium Conference 2 PECC Trade Forum 2 22-2 May 2, Hotel Shilla, Jeju, Korea APEC s Bogor Goals Mid-Term Stock Taking and Tariff Reduction 1993 Blake s Island, US Hikari Ishido (Associate
More informationTable 10.1 Registered Foreigners by Nationality:
Table 10.1 Registered Foreigners by Nationality: 1950-2006 Korea China Brazil Philippines Peru U. S. A. Thailand Viet Nam Indonesia 1950 598,696 544,903 40,481 169 367 178 4,962 73 25 257 1951 621,993
More informationThe East Asian Community Initiative
The East Asian Community Initiative and APEC Japan 2010 February 2, 2010 Tetsuro Fukunaga Director, APEC Office, METI JAPAN Change and Action The Initiative for an East Asian Community Promote concrete
More informationKINGDOM OF CAMBODIA NATION RELIGION KING 3 TOURISM STATISTICS REPORT. September 2010
KINGDOM OF CAMBODIA NATION RELIGION KING 3 TOURISM STATISTICS REPORT September 2010 MINISTRY OF TOURISM Statistics and Tourism Information Department No. A3, Street 169, Sangkat Veal Vong, Khan 7 Makara,
More informationAn Empirical Analysis of Pakistan s Bilateral Trade: A Gravity Model Approach
103 An Empirical Analysis of Pakistan s Bilateral Trade: A Gravity Model Approach Shaista Khan 1 Ihtisham ul Haq 2 Dilawar Khan 3 This study aimed to investigate Pakistan s bilateral trade flows with major
More informationInternational Business Global Edition
International Business Global Edition By Charles W.L. Hill (adapted for LIUC2016 by R.Helg) Copyright 2013 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 9 Regional Economic Integration
More information1.3. Rankings: imports, exports and overall trade volume Philippines trade with EU Member States Structure and trends by product
Front Cover Contents 1 Overview 2 1. Trade Relations 1.1. Trade in goods: main trends 1.2. Trade in services 1.3. Rankings: imports, exports and overall trade volume 1.4. Comparison of EU-Philippines
More informationSECTION THREE BENEFITS OF THE JSEPA
SECTION THREE BENEFITS OF THE JSEPA 1. Section Two described the possible scope of the JSEPA and elaborated on the benefits that could be derived from the proposed initiatives under the JSEPA. This section
More informationEast Asia and Latin America- Discovery of business opportunities
East Asia and Latin America- Discovery of business opportunities 2004 FEALAC Young Business Leaders Encounter in Tokyo 12 February 2004, Toranomon Pastoral Hotel Current Economic Situations (Trade and
More informationWhat Creates Jobs in Global Supply Chains?
Christian Viegelahn (with Stefan Kühn) Research Department, International Labour Organization (ILO)* Employment Effects of Services Trade Reform Council on Economic Policies (CEP) November 25, 2015 *All
More informationAssessing Intraregional Trade Facilitation Performance: ESCAP's Trade Cost Database and Business Process Analysis Initiatives
WTO/ESCAP Seventh ARTNeT Capacity Building Workshop for Trade Research, 12-16 16 September 2011, Yogyakarta, Indonesia Assessing Intraregional Trade Facilitation Performance: ESCAP's Trade Cost Database
More informationIgnacio Molina and Iliana Olivié May 2011
Ignacio Molina and Iliana Olivié May 2011 What is the IEPG? The Elcano Global Presence Index (IEPG after its initials in Spanish) is a synthetic index that orders, quantifies and aggregates the external
More information2010/SOM1/EC/WKSP/004 Session 1. Starting a Business. Submitted by: World Bank
2010/SOM1/EC/WKSP/004 Session 1 Starting a Business Submitted by: World Bank Workshop on Reducing Start-up and Establishment Time of Businesses Hiroshima, Japan 1-2 March 2010 Starting a Business : Asia
More informationAPPENDIXES. 1: Regional Integration Tables. Table Descriptions. Regional Groupings. Table A1: Trade Share Asia (% of total trade)
1: Regional Integration Tables The statistical appendix is comprised of 10 tables that present selected indicators on economic integration covering the 48 regional members of the n Development Bank (ADB).
More informationNew York County Lawyers Association Continuing Legal Education Institute 14 Vesey Street, New York, N.Y (212)
New York County Lawyers Association Continuing Legal Education Institute 14 Vesey Street, New York, N.Y. 10007 (212) 267-6646 Who is Who in the Global Economy And Why it Matters June 20, 2014; 6:00 PM-6:50
More informationEuropean integration : Where do we stand? What are the Challenges?
European integration : Where do we stand? What are the Challenges? By Dr. Peter Moser Director of the Research Unit for Economic Policy,Professor for Economics at the University of Applied Sciences HTW
More informationKINGDOM OF CAMBODIA NATION RELIGION KING 3 TOURISM STATISTICS REPORT. March 2010
KINGDOM OF CAMBODIA NATION RELIGION KING 3 TOURISM STATISTICS REPORT March 2010 MINISTRY OF TOURISM Statistics and Tourism Information Department No. A3, Street 169, Sangkat Veal Vong, Khan 7 Makara, Phnom
More informationChapter 9. Regional Economic Integration
Chapter 9 Regional Economic Integration Global Talent Crunch The Global Talent Crunch Over the next decade, it is estimated that the growth in demand for collegeeducated talent will exceed the growth in
More informationD/2005/2020/06 THE RISE OF CHINA: PROSPECTS OF REGIONAL TRADE POLICY. Filip ABRAHAM Jan VAN HOVE. International Economics
THE RISE OF CHINA: PROSPECTS OF REGIONAL TRADE POLICY by Filip ABRAHAM Jan VAN HOVE International Economics Center for Economic Studies Discussion Paper Series DPS 05.06 http://www.econ.kuleuven.ac.be/ew/admin/default.htm
More informationChapter 1 Introduction
Chapter 1 Introduction Commerce, which ought naturally to be, among nations, as among individuals, a bond of union and friendship, has become the most fertile source of discord and animosity. Adam Smith,
More information1.1. Trade in goods: main trends Rankings: imports, exports and overall trade volume Philippines trade with EU Member States
Front Cover Contents Message from the EU Trade Commissioner 2 Overview 3 1. Trade Relations 1.1. Trade in goods: main trends 1.2. Trade in services 1.3. Rankings: imports, exports and overall trade volume
More informationMarch 2016 Potential and Outlook for the
March 2016 Potential and Outlook for the Pacific Alliance Outline 1 Pacific Alliance: aiming for integration into the global economy 2 Pacific Alliance: outlook and challenges Page 2 China United States
More informationThe Asian financial crisis that broke out in
Essay Northeast Asian Economic Cooperation: The Need for a New Approach by Chang-Jae Lee The Asian financial crisis that broke out in Thailand in July 1997 and spread throughout East Asia brought a great
More informationThe Trade Potential of Pakistan: An Application of the Gravity Model
The Lahore Journal of Economics 16 : 1 (Summer 2011): pp. 23-62 The Trade Potential of Pakistan: An Application of the Gravity Model Nazia Gul * and Hafiz M. Yasin ** Abstract This paper attempts to estimate
More informationDoes Korea Follow Japan in Foreign Aid? Relationships between Aid and FDI
Does Korea Follow Japan in Foreign Aid? Relationships between Aid and FDI Japan and the World Economy (Forthcoming) Sung Jin Kang, Korea Univ. Hongshik Lee, Korea Univ. Bokyeong Park, KIEP 1 Korea and
More informationMEGA-REGIONAL FTAS AND CHINA
Multi-year Expert Meeting on Enhancing the Enabling Economic Environment at All Levels in Support of Inclusive and Sustainable Development (2nd session) Towards an enabling multilateral trading system
More informationWORLDWIDE DISTRIBUTION OF PRIVATE FINANCIAL ASSETS
WORLDWIDE DISTRIBUTION OF PRIVATE FINANCIAL ASSETS Munich, November 2018 Copyright Allianz 11/19/2018 1 MORE DYNAMIC POST FINANCIAL CRISIS Changes in the global wealth middle classes in millions 1,250
More informationShake Hands or Shake Apart? Pre-war Global Trade and Currency. Blocs: the Role of the Japanese Empire
HEI Working Paper No: 05/2006 Shake Hands or Shake Apart? Pre-war Global Trade and Currency Blocs: the Role of the Japanese Empire Toshihiro Okubo Graduate Institute of International Studies Abstract Despite
More informationLatin American Culture of Privacy - Presentation
2008/SOM1/ECSG/SEM/016 Latin American Culture of Privacy - Presentation Submitted by: Asociación Latinoamericana de Integración (ALADI) Technical Assistance Seminar on International Implementation of the
More informationGDP Per Capita. Constant 2000 US$
GDP Per Capita Constant 2000 US$ Country US$ Japan 38,609 United States 36,655 United Kingdom 26,363 Canada 24,688 Germany 23,705 France 23,432 Mexico 5,968 Russian Federation 2,286 China 1,323 India 538
More informationEconomics of the Trans- Pacific Partnership (TPP)
Economics of the Trans- Pacific Partnership (TPP) AED/IS 4540 International Commerce and the World Economy Professor Sheldon sheldon.1@osu.edu What is TPP? Trans-Pacific Trade Partnership (TPP), signed
More informationCambridge International Examinations Cambridge International Advanced Subsidiary and Advanced Level
Cambridge International Examinations Cambridge International Advanced Subsidiary and Advanced Level *4898249870-I* GEOGRAPHY 9696/31 Paper 3 Advanced Human Options October/November 2015 INSERT 1 hour 30
More informationE-Commerce Development in Asia and the Pacific
2013/ SOM3/CTI/WKSP1/015 e-commerce Development in Asia and the Pacific Submitted by: ESCAP Workshop on Building and Enhancing FTA Negotiation Skills on e-commerce Medan, Indonesia 27-28 June 2013 E-Commerce
More informationYear. Fig.1 Population projections
Outline of DNE21+ Model - Population, GDP Estimates- March 25, 28 1. Population Statistics from United Nations 26 are used. (UN, World Population Prospects:The 26 Revision. http://esa.un.org/unpp/) (Figure
More informationRankings: Universities vs. National Higher Education Systems. Benoit Millot
Rankings: Universities vs. National Higher Education Systems Benoit Millot Outline 1. Background 2. Methodology 3. Results 4. Discussion 11/8/ 2 1. Background 11/8/ 3 Clear Shift Background: Leagues focus
More informationEmerging Asian economies lead Global Pay Gap rankings
For immediate release Emerging Asian economies lead Global Pay Gap rankings China, Thailand and Vietnam top global rankings for pay difference between managers and clerical staff Singapore, 7 May 2008
More informationContemporary theory, practice and cases By Ilan Alon, Eugene Jaffe, Christiane Prange & Donata Vianelli
Global Marketing Contemporary theory, practice and cases By Ilan Alon, Eugene Jaffe, Christiane Prange & Donata Vianelli Chapter 3 Regional Trade and Emerging Markets Learning objectives After reading
More informationInternational Business
International Business 10e By Charles W.L. Hill Copyright 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. Chapter
More informationBULGARIAN TRADE WITH EU IN THE PERIOD JANUARY - JUNE 2014 (PRELIMINARY DATA)
BULGARIAN TRADE WITH EU IN THE PERIOD JANUARY - JUNE 2014 (PRELIMINARY DATA) In the period January - June 2014 Bulgarian exports to the EU increased by 2.8% to the corresponding the year and amounted to
More informationInclusive Growth: Challenges For The East Asia Region
Inclusive Growth: Challenges For The East Asia Region ADFIAP International CEO Forum XI New World Makati Hotel, Makati City, Dec 8, 2015 Rogier van den Brink Lead Economist and Program Leader World Bank
More informationGRAVITY MODEL BY PANEL DATA APPROACH: IN WHICH WAY SHOULD SOUTH KOREA (REPUBLIC OF KOREA) TURNS TO THE REGIONAL INTEGRATION, TPP OR ASEAN?
GRAVITY MODEL BY PANEL DATA APPROACH: IN WHICH WAY SHOULD SOUTH KOREA (REPUBLIC OF KOREA) TURNS TO THE REGIONAL INTEGRATION, TPP OR ASEAN? BY CHAN MAN LEE STUDENT NO. 09014608 A PROJECT SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL
More information2014 BELGIAN FOREIGN TRADE
2014 BELGIAN FOREIGN TRADE 2 3 01 \\ EXPORTS 6 1.1 Geographical developments 1.2 Sectoral developments 02 \\ IMPORTS 14 2.1 Geographical developments 2.2 Sectoral developments 03 \\ GEOGRAPHICAL TRADE
More informationBULGARIAN TRADE WITH EU IN THE PERIOD JANUARY - FEBRUARY 2017 (PRELIMINARY DATA)
BULGARIAN TRADE WITH EU IN THE PERIOD JANUARY - FEBRUARY 2017 (PRELIMINARY DATA) In the period January - February 2017 Bulgarian exports to the EU increased by 9.0% to the same 2016 and amounted to 4 957.2
More informationWorking Papers in Economics
University of Innsbruck Working Papers in Economics Foreign Direct Investment and European Integration in the 90 s Peter Egger and Michael Pfaffermayr 2002/2 Institute of Economic Theory, Economic Policy
More informationGrowth, Investment and Trade Challenges: India and Japan
Growth, Investment and Trade Challenges: India and Japan October 31, 2017 Shujiro URATA Waseda University Outline 1. Economic Growth: Japan and India 2. Foreign Trade and Investment 3. India Japan EPA
More informationA GAtewAy to A Bet ter Life Education aspirations around the World September 2013
A Gateway to a Better Life Education Aspirations Around the World September 2013 Education Is an Investment in the Future RESOLUTE AGREEMENT AROUND THE WORLD ON THE VALUE OF HIGHER EDUCATION HALF OF ALL
More informationCHILE NORTH AMERICA. Egypt, Israel, Oman, Saudi Arabia and UAE. Barge service: Russia Federation, South Korea and Taiwan. USA East Coast and Panama
EUROPE Bulgaria, Greece, Italy, Netherlands and Turkey Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Slovenia, Spain and UK Belgium, Germany, Gibraltar, Greece, Italy, Malta, Netherlands,
More informationInternational Journal of Humanities & Applied Social Sciences (IJHASS)
Governance Institutions and FDI: An empirical study of top 30 FDI recipient countries ABSTRACT Bhavna Seth Assistant Professor in Economics Dyal Singh College, New Delhi E-mail: bhavna.seth255@gmail.com
More informationgeography Bingo Instructions
Bingo Instructions Host Instructions: Decide when to start and select your goal(s) Designate a judge to announce events Cross off events from the list below when announced Goals: First to get any line
More informationInternational Travel to the U.S.
University of Massachusetts Amherst ScholarWorks@UMass Amherst Travel and Tourism Research Association: Advancing Tourism Research Globally 2013 Marketing Outlook Forum - Outlook for 2014 International
More informationThe Flow Model of Exports: An Introduction
MPRA Munich Personal RePEc Archive The Flow Model of Exports: An Introduction Jiri Mazurek School of Business Administration in Karviná 13. January 2014 Online at http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/52920/
More informationStrengthening Economic Integration and Cooperation in Northeast Asia
Strengthening Economic Integration and Cooperation in Northeast Asia Closing Roundtable International Conference on Regional Integration and Economic Resilience 14 June 2017 Seoul, Korea Jong-Wha Lee Korea
More informationSTUDENT VISA HOLDERS WHO LAST HELD A VISITOR OR WHM VISA Student Visa Grant Data
STUDENT VISA HOLDERS WHO LAST HELD A VISITOR OR WHM VISA 2013-14 Student Visa Grant Data Over 40,000 or 14% of all student visa grantees in 2013-14 last held a visitor or WHM visa Visa grants by sector
More informationToward Inclusive Growth in Indonesia : Improving Trade and Employment
Toward Inclusive Growth in Indonesia : Improving Trade and Employment Guntur Sugiyarto*) Asian Development Bank Conference on Trade and Employment in a Globalized World. Jakarta, Indonesia, 1-11 Desember
More informationInvestments and growth SEE and NIS
Joint Meeting of SEE and NIS TU Economic Experts Investments, austerity, labour market deregulation effects and inequalities Budva, Montenegro, 5 6 May 2016 Investments and growth SEE and NIS Bruno S.
More informationMEETING OF APEC MINISTERS RESPONSIBLE FOR TRADE. Puerto Vallarta, Mexico May 2002 STATEMENT OF THE CHAIR
MEETING OF APEC MINISTERS RESPONSIBLE FOR TRADE Puerto Vallarta, Mexico 29 30 May 2002 STATEMENT OF THE CHAIR APEC Ministers Responsible for met in Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, to discuss concrete ways to
More informationDirk Pilat:
Note: This presentation reflects my personal views and not necessarily those of the OECD or its member countries. Research Institute for Economy Trade and Industry, 28 March 2006 The Globalisation of Value
More informationREMITTANCE PRICES W O R L D W I D E
Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized REMITTANCE PRICES W O R L D W I D E PAYMENT SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT GROUP FINANCIAL AND PRIVATE
More information2010/SCSC/WKSP1/004 APEC Toy Safety Initiative: Survey Results
2010/SCSC/WKSP1/004 APEC Toy Safety Initiative: Survey Results Submitted by: United States APEC Toy Safety Initiative Open Dialogue on Toy Safety for All Stakeholders Hong Kong, China 12 January 2010 RESULTS
More informationMega-regionalism and Developing Countries
Mega-regionalism and Developing Countries Michael G. Plummer, Director, SAIS Europe, and Eni Professor of International Economics, Johns Hopkins University Presentation to Lee Kuan Yew School of Public
More informationMarkets in higher education
Markets in higher education Simon Marginson Institute of Education (IOE) Conference on The State and Market in Education: Partnership or Competition? The Grundtvig Study Centre Aarhus University and LLAKES,
More informationBBVA EAGLEs. Emerging And Growth Leading Economies Economic Outlook. Annual Report 2014 Cross-Country Emerging Markets, BBVA Research March 2014
BBVA EAGLEs Emerging And Growth Leading Economies Economic Outlook Annual Report 2014 Cross-Country Emerging Markets, BBVA Research March 2014 Index Key takeaways in 2013 Rethinking EAGLEs for the next
More informationReducing Business Travel Costs: The Success of APEC s Business Mobility Initiatives
Reducing Business Travel Costs: The Success of APEC s Business Mobility Initiatives APEC Policy Support Unit October 2011 Prepared by: Tammy L. Hredzak and Bernadine Zhang Yuhua Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation
More information"Prospects for East Asian Economic Integration: A Plausibility Study"
Creating Cooperation and Integration in Asia -Assignment of the Term Paper- "Prospects for East Asian Economic Integration: A Plausibility Study" As a term paper for this Summer Seminar, please write a
More information10-11 September 2014, Macao, China. Summary Record of Discussion
The 45 th APEC Working Group Meeting 10-11 September 2014, Macao, China Summary Record of Discussion 1. Mr. Du Jiang, Vice Chairman of the China National Tourism Administration (CNTA) delivered his opening
More informationExploring relations between Governance, Trust and Well-being
Exploring relations between Governance, Trust and Well-being Using recent Gallup WorldPoll data Robert Manchin Gallup Europe Asia-Pacific Conference on Measuring Well-Being and Fostering the Progress of
More informationSetting National Broadband Policies, Strategies & Plans
Setting National Broadband Policies, Strategies & Plans Dr Bob Horton Senior Telecommunications Expert 11 th Global Symposium for Regulators Smart Regulation for a Broadband World Armenia, Colombia, 22
More informationBelgium s foreign trade
Belgium s FIRST 9 months Belgium s BELGIAN FOREIGN TRADE AFTER THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF Analysis of the figures for (first 9 months) (Source: eurostat - community concept*) After the first nine months of,
More informationAFTA as Real Free trade Area
1 Executive Summary AFTA as Real Free trade Area Submitted to Department of Business Economics Ministry of Commerce By Kwanjai Sothitorn Nualnoi Pongsa Arunsmith Mallikamas Treerat Pornchaiwiseskul January
More informationASEAN. Overview ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
ASEAN Overview ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS "Today, ASEAN is not only a well-functioning, indispensable reality in the region. It is a real force to be reckoned with far beyond the region. It
More informationOverview. Main Findings. The Global Weighted Average has also been steady in the last quarter, and is now recorded at 6.62 percent.
This Report reflects the latest trends observed in the data published in September. Remittance Prices Worldwide is available at http://remittanceprices.worldbank.org Overview The Remittance Prices Worldwide*
More informationTourism Highlights International Tourist Arrivals, Average Length of Stay, Hotels Occupancy & Tourism Receipts Years
KINGDOM OF CAMBODIAA NATION RELIGION KING 3 TOURISM STATISTICS REPORT Oct tober 2013 MINISTRY OF TOURISM Statisticss and Tourism Information Department No. A3, Street 169, Sangkat Veal Vong, Khann 7 Makara,
More informationReading Essentials and Study Guide
Lesson 2 Globalization: Characteristics and Trends ESSENTIAL QUESTION What are the challenges associated with globalization? Reading HELPDESK Academic Vocabulary strategy plan or method context circumstances
More informationMizuho Economic Outlook & Analysis
Mizuho Economic Outlook & Analysis The 18th Questionnaire Survey of Japanese Corporate Enterprises Regarding Business in Asia (February 18) - Japanese Firms Reevaluate China as a Destination for Business
More informationOSHIKAWA Maika Head, Asia and Pacific Desk, Institute for Training and Technical Co-operation, World Trade Organization (WTO)
RIETI-JETRO Symposium Global Governance in Trade and Investment Regime - For Protecting Free Trade - Handout OSHIKAWA Maika Head, Asia and Pacific Desk, Institute for Training and Technical Co-operation,
More informationREGIONAL INTEGRATION AND TRADE IN AFRICA: AUGMENTED GRAVITY MODEL APPROACH
REGIONAL INTEGRATION AND TRADE IN AFRICA: AUGMENTED GRAVITY MODEL APPROACH Edris H. Seid The Horn Economic & Social Policy Institute (HESPI) 2013 African Economic Conference Johannesburg, South Africa
More informationIssues in Education and Lifelong Learning: Spending, Learning Recognition, Immigrants and Visible Minorities
Issues in Education and Lifelong Learning: Spending, Learning Recognition, Immigrants and Visible Minorities Dr. Michael Bloom Executive Director, Strategic Projects, & Director, Education and Learning
More informationCharting Singapore s Economy, 1Q 2016 Publication Date: December 8 th, 2015 Number of pages: 58
Charting Singapore s Economy, 1Q 2016 Publication Date: December 8 th, 2015 Number of pages: 58 Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) You are free to: Share copy and
More information