Working Group on Population Statistics

Transcription

1 EUROPEAN COMMISSION EUROSTAT Directorate F: Social statistics Unit F-2: Population Luxembourg, 25 February 2014 ESTAT/F2/POP(2013)10 Working Group on Population Statistics Luxembourg, December 2013 Bech Building, room Ampere Starting on 16 December at 9.30 and finishing on 17 December at MAIN CONCLUSIONS OF THE MEETING

2 The meeting was chaired by the Head of Eurostat Unit F2 Population. 1. ADOPTION OF THE AGENDA The agenda was adopted without changes. 2. POST-CENSUS POPULATION REVISIONS AND ANNUAL DEMOGRAPHIC DATA COLLECTION Eurostat presented the overview of post-census revisions received so far from the countries of the population broken down by age and sex; the state of play of the Joint data collection 2013, including data which was transmitted to the Council for qualified majority voting, was also illustrated. For the future, as Regulation 1260/2013 on European demographic statistics will enter into force, compliance monitoring will be put in place from next year s data collections. They will be fully in line with the compliance monitoring for data provided under Regulation 862/2007 on migration. During the discussion, some countries explained or amended the situation as regards their data provisions. IT sent the post-census revisions at regional level on 7 November 2013, however, they have not yet been loaded into Eurostat database; the post-census population at national level for was transmitted on 12 December. DE will transmit data next year, as agreed. UK will transmit revised data including post-census Scotland in January/February PL will transmit with national definition while starting providing estimates based on usual residence definition under the regulation 1260/2013. AT already transmitted the revisions of the national definition but will transmit in January 2014 the revisions with a 12 months criterion. ME informed that they have developed a new methodology for the revisions and the data will be sent next year. SK already transmitted the whole intercensal period and not only from 2003 as reported in the document. Some countries asked about population for QMV and compliance monitoring from the first year of the Regulation. Eurostat explained that the regulation contains no possibility for derogations but underlined that estimations are allowed. The Working Group took note of the new compliance monitoring rules to be applied as of With IT bilateral discussion will be started concerning the pending revisions. Eurostat took note of the further revisions that will be transmitted for some countries. 2

3 3. REGULATIONS ON DEMOGRAPHY 3.1. State of play of the EP and Council Regulation 3.2. Implementing Commission Regulation Eurostat presented the latest steps of the EP/Council Regulation 1260/2013 on European demographic statistics that was published on 10 December 2013 in the Official Journal of the EU. The plans for the Implementing Commission regulation and the main issues that were discussed with the WG and with the DSS were then presented. During the discussion that followed, some countries reiterated their comments on the implementing regulation. Eurostat answered to them and underlined that at this stage the implementing regulation was already adopted in the DSS therefore the WG has no more power to do anything to change. However, it will be in the agenda of the ESSC on 13 February The Working Group took note of the state of play of the EP/Council and of the Implementing Commission Regulations. The implementing regulation will be discussed in the ESSC on 13 February For EFTA/CH countries, Art. 4 will be excluded from the agreement. Concerning the compliance monitoring for 2014 data collections, some flexibility will be allowed on Article 4 (estimations allowed for Usual Residence population definition) Proposed structure of the Feasibility Studies In accordance with the new demography regulation (regulation No 1260/2013), Eurostat presented document ESTAT/F2/POP(2013)05 including a draft structure and content for the feasibility studies to be implemented in all EU/EFTA/CH countries within three years after the entry into force regulation No 1260/2013. EU financial support (in the form of grant agreements) would be proposed to interested countries. Eurostat also explained how the feasibility studies would be pre-filled with information from the Eurostat questionnaire on methodology. During the discussion the following main points were tackled: There was a general support by all countries on the structure proposed by Eurostat; Some countries expressed concern about next year deadline where total Usual Residence population data for the purpose of Qualified Majority Voting is to be transmitted to Eurostat and asked for help; For some population groups (persons whose stay is exactly one year; persons living in a remote area; persons undocumented for example), the Working Group asked for more precise definitions/clarifications; Eurostat clarified that EU funds are also available for EFTA and CH countries. NL, SE, AT, CZ, NO, CH, RO, IS, and maybe PL, EE, BG, LV informed Eurostat that they were considering asking for EU funding. 3

4 One delegate recommended to compare efforts required and results as well as to get input from the 12-month population definition in the migration regulation; Eurostat asked countries to review the population part of the methodological questionnaire and to liaise with the census experts at national level as they answered to the UNECE questionnaire on the population to be enumerated and information is sometimes in contradiction with the Eurostat demographic questionnaire. Eurostat will transmit to Working Group members the link to the UNECE website. The Working Group gave a general support to the proposed structure of the feasibility studies. It was agreed that 20 January 2014 would be the new deadline for written comments on structure of feasibility studies to be sent. Eurostat will produce a revised version on this basis (including as well comments received during the meeting). Countries will also review the population part of demography questionnaire and liaise with the census responsible persons in countries (who answered to the UNECE questionnaire on the population to be enumerated). Eurostat will send in the first half of 2014 a call for proposals to allow countries to get funding for the feasibility studies. Finally, any request for help for Article 4 of the new demography regulation should be sent to Eurostat for further consideration. 4. STREAMLINING OF THE ANNUAL DEMOGRAPHY AND MIGRATION DATA COLLECTIONS Eurostat presented the new system of EU population statistics and the proposed streamlining of the data requests to be implemented from 2014 data collection, merging the current Joint, Regional and Annual Migration Questionnaires. Member States and EFTA/CH would have both mandatory (as of regulations 1260/2013 and 862/2007) and voluntary tables while for the other participating countries the data provision would be kept entirely on voluntary basis. According to the mentioned Regulations, also the timetable would change and the most detailed data on stocks and flows of year T will need to be provided by 31 December of year T+1 (UNIDEMO data collection). Summary information on the data to be provided was briefly recalled and some questions for the Working Group were asked. In the discussion, the countries showed their positive opinion on the streamlining. The main issue was a clarification on the population concept(s) to be used for the different data provisions. It was clarified that, according to the Regulations: total population transmitted for qualified majority voting purposes must be the usually resident population; migration flows are to be provided with a 12 months criteria; all other series can be provided using a national definition, provided the same concept is used for all the data sent (consistency between national and regional population; between population, live births and deaths, etc.). In the discussion, some countries expressed their concern on having a burden for data transmission at the end of the year and on the reference time being on 31 of December while NUTS changes come usually into force on 1 January. 4

5 The Working Group gave strong support for streamlining of the different data collections and agreed on the proposed set of tables on voluntary basis. Eurostat will reflect on the reference date set to 31 December while NUTS changes are happening on 1 January. Eurostat will also reflect on labelling the data as 1 January while the reference date is 31 December. The Working Group agreed to ensure consistency by transmitting tables on population stocks for every breakdown and on events happening to the population (live births, deaths, marriages, divorces, etc.) based on same population concept (national or usual residence). For data provided under regulation 862/2007, the WG agreed that the reference date for the composition of the aggregates would be 31 December (and not 1 January), to be consistent with regulation 1260/2013; unknown cases to be removed from sex, age and year of birth breakdowns. 5. STATE OF PLAY OF ANNUAL MIGRATION DATA COLLECTIONS Eurostat presented document ESTAT/F2/POP(2013)07 including: first, an overview of the most recent collection of data for the annual migration statistics covered by Article 3 of Regulation 862/2007(migration flows and acquisition/loss of citizenship data for 2011 and population stocks for 1 January 2012); second, an overview of the impact of census results on migration statistics and finally, information on main changes, timetable and compliance monitoring for the annual migration data collection reference year During the discussion, the representatives of the following countries informed Eurostat of their plans to transmit post census revisions of foreign and foreign-born population stock data and migration flow data: 1) post-2011 Census population stocks by citizenship/country of birth before end of 2013: HU (2011); LV ( ); BG only citizenship ( );; PT ( ) 2) post-2011 Census migration flow revisions before end of 2013: LV ( ; PT ( ) 3) announcements: PL (fourth quarter of2014), LU (no revisions needed), IT (last quarter 2014), CY (January 2014) ; AT(January 2014) Out of the five proposed non-compliance follow-up measures to be applied for annual migration data collection reference year 2012, two were discussed: first, the use of mirror statistics to compare between the reporting EU Member State s data by country of previous/next residence and the data reported by other EU Member States and second, the high shares of unknown country of citizenship/country of birth/country of previous/next residence. Eurostat explained the need to assess the plausibility of the reported total flow of migrants (either immigrants or emigrants). For what concerns the intra-eu component of those flows, the analysis of mirror statistics is an internationally recognised instrument available. Eurostat asked to the members of the Working Group for new 5

6 alternatives/proposals for assessing under/over estimation of intra-eu migration flows. No responses were provided. Eurostat informed that only in case of too big asymmetries observed, non-compliance follow-up measures were intended to be applied due to quality concerns. The need to avoid having significant shares of the data with unknown of previous/next residence country was discussed. Eurostat explained that low shares of unknown are important to compute EU aggregates and get further elements to evaluate data accuracy (through mirror statistics). The threshold for the share of unknown country of previous/next residence of the total immigration/emigration are based upon the experience accumulated during the evaluation of the data collections under Art.3 of Regulation 862/2007 for the reference years and therefore it is orientated. Eurostat explained that only in case of extremely big shares of unknown observed, noncompliance follow-up measures were intended to be applied due to quality concerns. Members of the Working Group provided information to update the table on impact of census results of migration stocks and flows and agreed on the following three groups of non-compliance follow-up measures for the annual migration data collection reference year 2012: o Timeliness, missing or incomplete data to be used strictly. o The category of unknown citizenship, country of birth, country of previous or next residence should be less than 5 percent of total. o Mirror statistics might be used to identify potential problems with immigration and emigration data. This would require discussion and follow-up with national data suppliers. 6. QUESTIONNAIRE ON METHODOLOGY Eurostat presented the draft manual on methodology for demographic statistics that will be prepared on the basis of the answers received to the questionnaire launched over summer One important point was that countries should check the information provided because in some cases the answers on the population concept do not seem correct and they will be used to prefill the tables of the feasibility studies. Eurostat asked if the countries would agree to share the information provided in the questionnaires. If this is accepted, Eurostat would create an Excel file for each country and upload them in Circabc so that the information could also be updated if needed. FR and CY informed that they will confirm if they want to do so or not. The Working Group should comment on the draft manual and provide corrected information by 20 January A contact person in each country will also be indicated by 20 January, contact who will receive the draft manual for validation before it is published. The Working Group agreed to share the information reported in the questionnaire; however FR and CY will confirm later if they wish to do so. 6

7 7. METHODOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS AT NATIONAL LEVEL Population register: experience in the Netherlands. Statistics Netherlands presented the population register (GBA), the way it is built and who is obliged to register. The quality of the information contained is good due to exchange of information among municipalities. The figures extracted from it can be under or overestimating the population stocks however the year-on-year change in the figures is good. An impact on the figures is due to the change from the intention to stay to the realised stay of migrants. Mirror statistics on migration and exchange of micro-data for migration and vital events: a proposal from Spain. INE Spain presented the population register (Padrón) and how migration flows are calculated and used to update the population registers. Several challenges were illustrated and examples of mirror flows from UK work and pension authority and Destatis statistical institute were shown. Among the conclusions, INE proposed to the Working Group the bilateral exchange of microdata information on migration flows for statistical purposes. BE and UK expressed their interest and other interested countries are invited to inform Eurostat by 20 January Eurostat thanked the presenters and requested two voluntary countries for methodological presentation for next year s Working Group meeting planned for October CIRCULAR MIGRATION - UNECE UNECE presented the on-going work of the Task Force on Circular Migration, illustrating the objective and the progresses made until now. Two draft definitions for circular migration are at the moment proposed and the task force is looking for countries to test the definitions with actual data. AT and SE offered their cooperation. 9. DISSEMINATION Eurostat presented past and future publications and dissemination tools on population and the plans for the Eurostat Population Conference 2015 and for the flagship publication on population. Ideas and suggestions for discussion topics and workshops for the Eurostat 2015 conference on Population matters are welcome by 20 January A.O.B. Eurostat summarised the main conclusions of the meeting and thanked all participants for their active contribution. 7