CHALLENGING ISSUES OF INTERNATIONAL RANKING: BELARUS CASE. M. Kovalev (BSU)
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1 CHALLENGING ISSUES OF INTERNATIONAL RANKING: BELARUS CASE M. Kovalev (BSU)
2 Economic growth depends on human capital and ability to use it effectively: where KNOWLEDGE BASED ECONOMY IN XXI CENTURY Y=F(L, K, A, H,G), L labor, K capital, A technical progress, H human capital, G governance Cobb-Douglas function: Y= K 1/3 *L 2/3 *A ( ) A ( )= 2
3 COBB-DOUGLAS FUNCTION ln GDP t =lna t +α lnl t +(1-α)lnK t A i t=(0,013-βln(gdp i t-1(ppp percapita / GDP USA (t-1)(ppp percapita ))) A t-1 β Convergence Factor β=1,5% (GS2009) 3
4 CHANGES OF WORLD LEADERS (2050) Forecaster/ Place * Goldman Sachs 2003 China USA India Japan Russia, Brazil Goldman Sachs 2009 China USA India Brazil Price Waterhause 2006 China India USA Brazil Japan Japan, Russia, Great Britain Price Waterhause 2008 China USA India Japan Russia, Indonesia, Mexico Price Waterhause 2011 China India USA Brazil Japan, Russia, Mexico Citibank 2011 India China USA Indonesia Russia, Brazil HSBC 2011 China USA India Japan Germany, Great Britain, Brazil Carnegie 2012 China USA India Japan Brazil, Mexico СЕРII 2010 China USA India Japan Russia, Brazil Asian Development Bank China USA India Japan BSU China India USA CEC (ЕЭП) Japan, Brazil, Germany
5 WORLD ECONOMIC LEADERS: CHANGES IN THE SHARE OF WORLD GDP (in $ 2005) 30% 25% 29% 26% 30% 28% 28% 20% 21% 21% 23% 21% 15% 14% 10% 11% 12% 5% 7% 5% 9% 7% 0% EU USA China 2% India Japan 3% 2% 3% 2% 2% Brazil Russia other Source:
6 WORLD DEBT CRISIS: GOVERNMENT DEBT (% OF GDP) per capita, thousands $ 1 Japan Greece Italy Portugal Iceland United States Belgium France Germany European Union Source: CIA 6
7 WORLD DEBT CRISIS: GROSS GOVERNMENT DEBT, 2011 trillion $ % of GDP per capita, thousands $ Source: CIA World ~10 EU USA UK 9, Germany 5, France 5, Netherlands 3, Japan 2, ,3 7 Spain 2, Italy 2, ,2 9 Ireland 2, ,3 10 Luxembourg 2, ,2 7
8 BELARUS: GDP (PPP) GROWTH $ billions GDP (PPP) $ thousands per capita 160 increase in 4,12 times average annual 9,3% 131,8 141,8 18 increase in 4,4 times average annual 9,7% 13,9 15,0 83,5 8,6 34,4 50,8 3,4 5, Source: IMF 8
9 INTERNATIONAL RANKINGS OF BELARUS ECONOMY NAME ORGANIZATION YEAR VALUE PLACE GDP (nominal) GDP (PPP) GDP (PPP per capita) GDP (PPP per employed) UN IMF WB WB IMF IMF WB Pensylvania (2010) ,7 bln int $ 55,1 bln int $ 55,1 bln int $ 134,6 bln int $ 141,8 bln int $ int $ int $ int $ (out of 183) WB int $ 57 Gini-index WB ,2%* 9 * 10% - 6,9 (UN, CIA); 20% - 4,5 (UN)
10 INTERNATIONAL RANKINGS OF BELARUS ECONOMY NAME ORGANIZATION YEAR PLACE OUT OF Global Competitiveness Index World Competitiveness Index Index of Economic Freedom Economic Complexity Index World Economic Forum IMD Heritage Foundation Hausmann, Hidalgo 21 Globalization (KOF) Kearney Economic Glob. Social Glob. Political Glob
11 INTERNATIONAL RANKINGS OF BELARUS ECONOMY NAME ORGANIZATION Doing Business WB 58 (185) 129 (175) NAME Starting a business Dealing with construction permits Getting electricity Registering property 3 96 Getting credit Protecting investors Paying taxes Trading across boards Enforcing contracts Resolving insolvency 56 91
12 INTERNATIONAL RANKINGS OF BELARUS SOCIETY NAME ORGANIZATION YEAR PLACE OUT OF Gender Inequality Index Happy Planet Index Quality of Life Index Legatum Prosperity Index UN - EIU Economy Enterpreneurship Governance Education Health Safety & Security Personal Freedom Social Capital
13 INTERNATIONAL RANKINGS OF BELARUS EDUCATION & INNOVATION NAME ORGANIZATION YEAR PLACE OUT OF Education Index UN HDI UN Future HDI UN Knowledge Economy Index WB Knowledge Index WB Global Innovation Index Innovation Education ICT INSEAD
14 INTERNATIONAL RANKINGS OF BELARUS EDUCATION & INNOVATION NAME ORGANIZATION YEAR PLACE OUT OF International Mathematic Olympiad Webometrics (BSU) SCImago Institution (Science) Index -NAS -BSU -BSUIR Medals: gold-12 silver-44 bronze
15
16
17 Note: dotted lines display a 95% confidence interval
18 GENERAL PROBLEMS AND CRITISISM OF RANKING METHODOLOGY Ranking: aggregation of linear orders Application: Voting Systems (Condercet, Borda) Social Science Theory (Arrow, Fishburn), Impossibility Theorem 1. Selecting indicators (hard date, soft date) 2. Scaling (dimensionless measures/quantities) 3. Aggregation (pillar, sub-index, index) 18
19 SCALING Handbook on Constructing Composite Indicators: Methodology and User Guide OECD, Paris, Score RB 0 min max 100 v 6 19
20 CRITISISM of scaling procedure 1. No continuity (dynamic trends) 2. Abnormally high value of Ind max brings almost null Score for all countries PROBLEMS OF RANKING 1. Robustness 2. Monotonous trends 3. Excessive number of indicators 4. Correlation with future growth (Greece, China) 5. Succession of ranking on subsets 6. Actual current data 7. Strong (weak) correlation with previous (future) growth 20
21 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR BELARUS 1. New function for governance to form countries image 2. Interaction with rating agencies 3. Exchange of current data among key organizations (international database) 4. Cooperation in social researches 5. Collaboration with international media and web portals 6. Collaboration with business communities 21
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