Early job insecurity in Europe The impact of the economic crisis

Transcription

1 Lunch Discussion, Solidar, Brussels, November 16, 2016 Early job insecurity in Europe The impact of the economic crisis This project has received funding from the European Union s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No Maria Symeonaki Panteion University, Athens, Greece

2 Outline of the presentation 1 Early job insecurity: Definition 2 Early job insecurity: Measurement 3 Impact of the crisis on school-to-work transition 4 Impact of the crisis on early job insecurity 5 Case Study: Greece 2

3 Early job insecurity: Definition Early job insecurity as an objective phenomenon The probability of being unemployed or inactive The probability of finding or keeping a job Number of part-time contracts Labour mobility, etc 3

4 INDICATORS CONCERNING LABOUR MARKET OUTCOMES Youth Participation Rate Youth Employment Rate Youth Unemployment Rate Youth Unemployment Ratio Incidence of long-term unemployment NEET rates INDICATORS CONCERNING RELATIVE CHANGES IN EMPLOYMENT RATES Youth to total Unemployment Ratio Relative UR low skills/high skills INDICATORS CONCERNING JOB QUALITY Temporary Employment Part-time Employment Underemployed part-time workers Work load INDICATORS CONCERNING EMPLOYMENT (IN)SECURITY Job Finding Rate Job Separation Rate INDICATORS CONCERNING TRANSITIONS FROM SCHOOL School-to-Employment Probability School-to-Unemployment Probability School-to-Inactivity Probability 4

5 Modeling labour market transitions 1: Employment P O1 P P O2 U Ε P 21 P 12 P 31 P 13 P 32 I P O3 2: Unemployment P 23 P 22 P 33 3: Inactivity

6 0,900 Employment probabilities for new school leavers SWITZERLAND ,675 0, , GREECE 0,

7 0,800 Employment probabilities for new school leavers AUSTRIA , , ITALY 0,200 SPAIN GREECE 0,

8 Unemployment probabilities for new school leavers 0,8 0,7 CROATIA ,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0, , SWITZERLAND 8

9 Unemployment probabilities for new school leavers CROATIA 0, ITALY GREECE ,0 AUSTRIA

10 Early Job Insecurity Map DUBLIN REYKJAVIK ICELAND IRELAND UNITED KINGDOM LONDON PORTUGAL LISBON SPAIN MADRID FRANCE PARIS ROME ITALY BELGIUM LUXEMBOURG BRUSSELS NETHERLANDS AMSTERDAM GERMANY BERLIN DENMARK COPENHAGEN NORWAY OSLO SWEDEN STOCKHOLM FINLAND HELSINKI ESTONIA TALLINN RUSSIA MOSCOW RIGA LATVIA VILNIUS LITHUANIA RUSSIA POLAND WARSAW BELARUS MINSK UKRAINE KIEV MOLDOVA CHISINAU BUCHAREST ROMANIA SWITZERLAND BERN AUSTRIA VIENNA SLOVAKIA BRATISLAVA CZECH REP PRAGUE HUNGARY BUDAPEST ANKARA TURKEY CYPRUS NICOSIA BULGARIA SOFIA ATHENS GREECE ALBANIA TIRANA MONTERO PODGORICA BOSNIA HERZ. SARAJEVO CROATIA ZAGREB SERBIA BELGRADE SLOVENIA LJUBLJANA MACEDONIA SKOPJE KOSOVO PRISTINA YEREVAN GEORGIA AZERBAIJAN BAKU ARMENIA TBILISI ANDORA ANDORRA LA VELLA VATICAN CITY LIECHTENSTEIN VADUZ MONACO SAN MARINO HIGH CONSIDERABLE MODERATE LOW

11 The impact of the crisis on youth unemployment rates 50,00 37,50 25,00 12,50 0,00 NL NO DK IS AT CY CZ SI DE MT EE BG IE LT LV UK FI PT PL LU BE FR RO SK HU SE IT EL HR ES

12 The impact of the crisis on youth unemployment rates 50,00 37,50 25,00 12,50 0,00 DE IS NO AT DK NL MT CZ EE UK LT LV SI HU LU SE PL IE BG RO BE FI FR SK PT CY IT HR ES EL

13 The impact of the crisis on youth NEET rates 22,00 16,50 11,00 5,50 0,00 NL NO DK IS LU SI CZ AT FI SE MT DE EE LT PL CY BE PT FR SK EL HU HR RO LV UK ES IE 2008 IT BG 13

14 The impact of the crisis on youth NEET rates 22,00 16,50 11,00 5,50 0,00 NO DE SE CZ AT IS LT SI MT LV LU FI DK EE PL UK NL PT HU FR BE SK IE CY ES EL RO HR BG IT

15 The impact of the crisis on involuntary part-time employment 80,00 60,00 40,00 20,00 0,00 SI NL CZ DK IS NO PL AT IE FI DE MT HR ES HU BE CY SE PT FR EL IT RO SK UK

16 The impact of the crisis on involuntary part-time employment 90,00 67,50 45,00 22,50 0,00 SI IS DK NL DE CZ AT MT BE HR UK FI PL SK IE SE HU PT ES FR EL CY RO IT

17 The impact of the crisis on youth long-term unemployment rates 30,00 22,50 15,00 7,50 0,00 NO FI DK AT NL SE DE LU MT BE UK EE CZ FR SI LT CY PL LV HU RO PT BG IE IT ES SK HR EL

18 The impact of the crisis on youth long-term unemployment rates 30,00 22,50 15,00 7,50 0,00 DK NO SE DE FI AT NL EE UK MT CZ LV HU SI PL FR IE BE CY RO PT BG SK ES HR IT EL

19 The percentage change in mean income 2008 and ,00 30,00 20,00 10,00 0,00-10,00-20,00-30,00-40,00 NO SK EE SE LT CZ PL MT BE FI AT DK DE FR HU UK SI NL LU IT LV CY RO PT ES IE IS EL 19

20 45.2 M YOUTH UR 55.0 F YOUTH UR Greece 50.6% INCOME , ,472 Youth Unemployment Rate, ER % % Job Creation Low Education 2 Medium Education 3 High Education Brain Drain NEETS ,4% ,2%

21 Consequences of Early Job Insecurity Systematic labour market and social exclusion The threat of a lost generation High risks of poverty, precarity Disaffection, scarring Higher propensity towards offence and crime (mental and physical) Health problems, etc 21

22 Thank you This project has received funding from the European Union s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No Maria Symeonaki Panteion University, Athens, Greece 22