"First Forum on Europe's Demographic Future"

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download ""First Forum on Europe's Demographic Future""

Denis Young
5 years ago
Views:

1 "First Forum on Europe's Demographic Future" in Brussels 1

2 Reykjavik Saxony a central European region 3 h Oslo Stockholm Helsinki 2 h Moskau 1 h SAXONY London Hamburg 24 h 10 h 5 h Berlin Saxony Warschau Paris Frankfurt 12 h Prag München 24 h Bern Wien Budapest Ljubljana Lissabon Madrid 48 h Rom Athen 2

3 Demographic Facts Demographic Balance of Saxony (in 1 000) Feature Births Deaths Deficit of Births Immigration Emigration Net migration loss abroad Moving-Ins from other German Länder Moving-Outs to other German Länder Net intragerman migration loss Net migration loss Fall in population Source: Statistisches Landesamt des es 1) 3rd regionalized population forecast for the Free State Saxony, variation 1 2) data prognostic undemonstrable in this configuration (conditional on the model) ) ). 2) ). 2)

4 Saxony s Population has been shrinking for 40 years per 1, 000 inhabitants 10 until Population Movement in Saxony from 1955 to 2020 from until until 2005 period of reconstruction 2006 until 2020 period of adaptation to demographic conditions Erection of the Berlin Wall Births Migration Fall of the Berlin Wall Source: Statistisches Landesamt des es Data for the years 2004 to 2020 are based on the 3rd Regionalised Population Forecast by Statistics Saxony. 4

Demographic Facts births per 10 000 inh.

5 Demographic Facts births per inh. at EU-countries (2004) Births per inh. at the EU-Countries in

6 irthrate of Saxony compared with selected German states born children (living) per woman necessary level for the replacement of the parents generation Brandenburg Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Saxony-Anhalt Saxony Hesse Bavaria Rhineland-Palatinate Lower Saxony Germany Quelle: Statistische Landesämter 6

7 Migration remains a topic balance of migration per inhabitants by age group compared with selected German states 2004 balance of population per inh. 1 0 Saxony- Anhalt Mecklenburg- Vorpommern Thuringia Saxony Saarland age from up to below years over below 6 Source: Statistisches Landesamt des es 7

8 Consequences for the Free State of Saxony loss of 640,000 inhabitants since 1990 lack of qualified labour force despite high unemployment closure of schools and kindergartens (since 1990 some 800 schools have been closed in Saxony) more than 400,000 empty housing units infrastructure overcapacities, e.g. waste and drinking water systems recruitment problems in sports clubs, voluntary fire brigades, etc. increasing demand for old age and nursing homes increasing health care costs decrease in revenue 8

9 Population density is declining, but remains at a high level North Rhine-Westphalia Netherlands Saxony Germany Rhineland-Palatinate Italy Bavaria Switzerland Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Source: Statistisches Bundesamt, Statistische Landesämter inhabitants per km 2 9

10 Saxony is Shrinking Population forecast until % 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% Saxony Ostdeutschland ohne East Germany without Saxony Employment Population Saxony Erwerbsfähige Personen Westdeutschland Germany West Germany East Germany without Saxony Saxony Employment Population in Saxony Source: Statistisches Bundesamt 2003, Statistisches Landesamt des es 2004, own calculations 10

11 Looming shortage of qualified labour Employment gap by qualification Employment gap no completed vocational training completed vocational training University degree Source: ifo-dresden

12 Number of deconstructed housing units 2000 to 2005 Anzahl Deconstructed zurückgebauter housing units Wohnungen Insgesamt Altogether, wurde with public bis 2005 funding der Rückbau about 48,800 housing units have been von deconstructed. rund Wohnungen gefördert. 10,963 13,349 15, , , Source: Sächsisches Staatsministerium des Innern, Ref

13 Future Tasks Strategies of a demographic policy Family and Society special promotion of families support the balance between the generations promote immigration and integration strenghten civil society Education and Research improve the quality of education establish lifelong learning and permanent postgraduate professional education aspirate more high-school graduation improve general conditions for research and innovation Administration and Finance efficient structure of the administration reducing and redistributing public expenditures regain scope of political action as a result of the reform of german federalism make demographically sustainable investments Economy and Employement qualify human resources improve conditions of industrial locations adjust economy to changing demands Infrastructure and Development of Regions adjust infrastructure to demand strenghten regional responsibilities and potentials create attractive living conditions continue urban reconstruction revalue urban centers 13

14 an example: Saxony invests 2005 Saxony Saxony-Anhalt Brandenburg Thuringia Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Bavaria Baden-Wurttemberg North Rhine-Westphalia Hesse Rhineland-Palatinate Saarland Schleswig-Holstein Lower Saxony Source: Wirtschaftswoche Quelle: Wirtschaftswoche investment rate in % 14

15 Regional political solutions main focus on the promotion of high potential centers in all five subregions of Saxony develop new offers and efficient organisation of public infrastructure redefinition of minimum standards in the rural regions and no country-wide valid standards availability of education and public health services on high leve in all parts of the country consistent outsourcing of public tasks downwards provide regional adjustment and development strategies 15

Economic potentials of the refugee immigration in the long run

Economic potentials of the refugee immigration in the long run in the long run Dr. Wido Geis 5.10.2016, Berlin Refugee immigration and population development In 1.000 89.000 87.000 85.000 Statistisches Bundesamt 2015- variants 1-8 and W3 IW estimation 80% Intervall