Poverty Status in Afghanistan

Transcription

1 Poverty Status in Afghanistan Based on the National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (NRVA) July 2010 A Joint report of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan Ministry of Economy and the World Bank, Economic Policy and Poverty Sector General Directorate of Policy and ANDS Monitoring and Evaluation

2 Outline of the presentation DEFINITION OF POVERTY POVERTY IN AFGHANISTAN: PHYSICAL AND POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY OF POVERTY DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIOECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF POVERTY LABOR AND INCOME GENERATING ACTIVITIES TRENDS IN WELLBEING

3 Work leading to Poverty Estimates Poverty Estimates Technical Committee (PETC) Formed by MoEc, GD of Policy and ANDS M&E Participants included: MoEc, MoF, CSO, MoLSAMD, EU, WFP, ILO, JICA, UNAMA. 7 workshops. 5 covered all assumptions leading to the poverty estimates, 2 covered findings Poverty estimates formally accepted by GoA after endorsement of PETC.

4 Measuring Poverty NRVA , first nationally representative survey to provide seasonally smoothed poverty figures. Poverty based on Cost of Basic Needs methodology o Poverty line represents the level of per capita consumption at which the members of a households can be expected to meet their basic needs in terms of consumption of food (2100 daily calories) and non food items. Poverty line: Avg value is AF 1253 per person, per month. Estimated for 14 different regions, allowing for differences in nonfood needs, correcting for differences in prices.

5 Poverty in Afghanistan According to NRVA , poverty In Afghanistan affects 36 percent of the population, Poverty Indicators Estimate Poverty Headcount 36% Poverty Gap 7.9 Poverty Gap Squared 2.6

6 Poverty in Afghanistan while more than half of the population is vulnerable to falling into poverty Consumption (monthly per capita AFA) Pen's Parade Inverse CDF of consumption Proportion of Population

7 Poverty in Afghanistan The Regional Context Country Headcount (%) under national poverty line Survey year Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India 27.5*** Maldives 2004 Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka Source: *PovcalNet; **Ravallion, Chen, and Sangraula (2009); ***World Bank staff estimation; ****Chen and Ravallion (2008)

8 Poverty in Afghanistan 80% of Afghan population lives in rural areas and poverty in rural areas is significantly higher than in urban centers. Poverty rate (%) Urban 29 Rural 36 Kuchi 54

9 Poverty in Afghanistan Rural households mainly rely on agriculture: as a result seasonality and the characteristics of terrain are strongly correlated with poverty which tends to be higher: during winter and spring months when households have to rely on alternative sources of livelihood; in more remote areas, notably mountainous and plateau areas.

10 Poverty in Afghanistan During seasonal trends in poverty overlapped with the fuel and food price crisis and poverty reached the highest level in spring and summer Quarter Poverty rate 1 Fall-harvest Winter 07/ Spring Summer Annual 36%

11 Poverty in Afghanistan Food prices crisis is reflected in the patterns of food consumption whose real value decline over time. Qtr Season Calorie deficiency rate (a) (%) Food poverty rate (b) (%) Food consumption (real terms) Food consumption (nominal terms) 1 Fall ,200 1,196 2 Winter ,122 3 Spring ,129 4 Summer ,183 Note: (a) consumption below 2100 calories; (b) Food consumption below the food poverty line

12 Poverty in Afghanistan Strong variation in poverty by province, on average, lower in Southwestern areas.

13 Demographic and Socioeconomic Characteristics of Poverty

14 Demographic and Socioeconomic Characteristics of Poverty Poverty is correlated in obvious ways with the household size and with the education level of the household head: Larger households, and those with higher dependency ratios are on average more likely to be poor; The higher the human capital endowment of the household head, the lower the risk for the household to be poor.

15 Demographic and Socioeconomic Characteristics of Poverty Primary school enrollment remains low, gender gap large, small poverty effect. PC quintile Boys Girls Total 1 (poorest) (richest) Total

16 Demographic and Socioeconomic Characteristics of Poverty Access to health services also remains low, large poor-non-poor difference. PC quintile Antenatal care (%) Skilled birth attendance (%) 1 (poorest) (richest) Total 37 25

17 Demographic and Socioeconomic Characteristics of Poverty Likewise, immunization rates remain low and strongly correlated to poverty. BCG OPV3 DPT3 Measles Full Immunization No Vaccination Non-poor Poor Total

18 Demographic and Socioeconomic Characteristics of Poverty A stark picture emerges also when looking at the access to basic services, particularly for poorer households % of HH with access to: Poor Non-poor Total Electricity Safe water Sanitary toilet Note: Sanitary toilet: flush and improved latrines; access to community health workers refers to community health workers in village

19 Demographic and Socioeconomic Characteristics of Poverty and households living in rural areas. % of HH with access to: Urban Rural Total Electricity Safe water Sanitary toilet

20 Income Generating Activities and Labor Market

21 Income Generating Activities and Labor Market Informality is a distinguishing feature of the Afghan labor market and households are the first employer both in rural and urban areas. Informality is strongly associated with underemployment. Rural Urban National Self-employed Unpaid family worker Employer Day laborer Salaried worker private sector Salaried worker in public sector

22 Income Generating Activities and Labor Market Seasonality strongly affects livelihood strategies of rural households engaged in agriculture. Most vulnerable are households relying on subsistence agriculture Households are forced to diversify their income sources during winter and spring months 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% Seasonality by main income source, RURAL households 0.0% FARMING -HOME CONSUMPTION FARMING -MARKET WAGE LABOR AGRICULTURE WAGE LABOR NON- AGRIC. TRADE, CRAFT & TRANSPORT TRANSFERS SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER

23 Income Generating Activities and Labor Market Afghan labor market is characterized by a strong urban/rural divide. Urban LM: Low participation and employment, relatively higher open unemployment and lower underemployment (w.r.t. rural areas) Rural LM: High participation and employment, relatively lower open unemployment and high underemployment (w.r.t. urban areas) Rural Urban National Participation rate Employment -population ratio Unemployment rate Underemployment rate

24 TRENDS IN WELLBEING

25 Trends in Wellbeing Several problems in directly comparing poverty figures from previous NRVA rounds: Previous NRVA rounds only cover a single season Changes in survey instruments used to account for food and non food households consumption Approach to circumvent these limitations: Construct a time- comparable food deficiency indicator (same season, same consumption items) Use subjective assessments of changes in wellbeing direclty from NRVA Use objective socioeconomic indicators as proxy for trends in wellbeing (health and education outcomes)

26 Trends in Wellbeing No significant change comparing season on season food deficiency trends; Despite run up in food prices, 2008 season-on-season estimates no worse. Price shock perhaps counter balanced by improvement over time Food deficiency rate (%) Summer 2005 Spring 2007 Spring 2008 Summer 2008

27 Trends in Wellbeing Positive trends emerge in health outcomes such as immunization rates. NRVA 05 NRVA 07/8 BCG Polio DPT Measles Full Immunization 11 37

28 Trends in Wellbeing Trends in school enrollment (ages 6-9) significant improvements, levels low, and the gender gap has become worse. Female Male Total / / /08 Natl Urban Rural Kuchi

29 Trends in Wellbeing Literacy (ages 15-24): - significant improvements, though level remains worryingly low and the gender gap has deteriorated. Female Male Total / / /08 Natl Urban Rural Kuchi

30 Thank You!