Territorial and Urban Potentials Connected to Migration and Refugee Flows

Transcription

1 Territorial and Urban Potentials Connected to Migration and Refugee Flows Targeted Analysis Inception Report Version 20/11/2017

2 This targeted analysis activity is conducted within the framework of the ESPON 2020 Cooperation Programme, partly financed by the European Regional Development Fund. The ESPON EGTC is the Single Beneficiary of the ESPON 2020 Cooperation Programme. The Single Operation within the programme is implemented by the ESPON EGTC and co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund, the EU Member States and the Partner States, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. This delivery does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the members of the ESPON 2020 Monitoring Committee. Authors Stefano Bianchini, Marco Borraccetti, Marco Zoppi, University of Bologna (UNIBO), Paola Cavanna, Centre for Central-Eastern and Balkan Europe (IECOB) Project Support Team: Stefano Volpicelli, Central European Initiative (CEI), Ugo Poli, Central European Initiative (CEI), Marie-Noelle Duquenne, University of Thessaly (UTH-LDSA), Byron Kotzamanis, University of Thessaly (UTH-LDSA), Eda Gemi, European University of Tirana (UET), Luljeta Minxhozi, European University of Tirana (UET), Selami Xhepa, European University of Tirana (UET), Marco Dubbini, University of Bologna, Matteo Proto, University of Bologna, Elisa Magnani, University of Bologna, Filippo Pistocchi, IECOB, Francesco Privitera, Centre for Central- Eastern and Balkan Europe (IECOB) ESPON EGTC: Martin Gauk, Helena Goetsch, Magdalena Zagrzejewska Information on ESPON and its projects can be found on The web site provides the possibility to download and examine the most recent documents produced by finalised and ongoing ESPON projects. This delivery exists only in an electronic version. ESPON, 2017 Printing, reproduction or quotation is authorised provided the source is acknowledged and a copy is forwarded to the ESPON EGTC in Luxembourg. Contact: info@espon.eu

3 Inception Report a Territorial and Urban Potentials Connected to Migration and Refugee Flows Disclaimer: This document is an inception report. The information contained herein is subject to change and does not commit the ESPON EGTC and the countries participating in the ESPON 2020 Cooperation Programme. The final version of the report will be published as soon as approved.

4 Table of contents 1 Background and objectives Previous ESPON projects: existing knowledge and lessons from the past DEMIFER Demographic and Migratory Flows Affecting European Regions and Cities SEMIGRA Selective Migration and Unbalanced Sex Ratio in Rural Regions ATTREG (Attractiveness of European Regions and Cities for Residents and Visitors) ECR2 (Economic Crisis: Resilience of Regions) TiPSE (The Territorial Dimension of Poverty and Social Exclusion in Europe) ITAN (Integrated Territorial Analysis of the Neighbourhood) ET2050 (Territorial Scenarios and Visions for Europe) Conclusions The conceptual and methodological framework and the tasks Overview on data and data sources Task Task Task Task Task 5. Case studies - an outline Athens, Greece Friuli Venezia-Giulia Region - Slovenia The Riace model and neighboring municipalities Timetable of the project References List of Annexes... 27

5 List of Figures Figure 2.1 Block diagram of the O/D matrix Figure 2.2 Graphic scheme of migration flows Figure 2.3 Structure of Models of Generation List of Tables Table 2.1 Summary of data availability for internal flows to each country Table 3.1 Timetable of the project... 24

6 Abbreviations AIDA CBC DG REGIO EASO EC ERDF ESF ESIF ESPON EU ETC EUSAIR GIS IMF IOM SNUTS NUTS OECD SEE ToR UNHCR WB Asylum Information Database Cross-border cooperation Networks Directorate-General for Regional and Urban Policy European Asylum Support Office European Commission European Regional Development Fund European Social Fund European Structural and Investment Funds European Territorial Observatory Network European Union European Territorial Cooperation EU Strategy for the Adriatic and Ionian Region Geographic Information System International Monetary Fund International Organisation for Migration Similar to NUTS Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development South East Europe Terms of Reference United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees Western Balkans

7 1 Background and objectives ESPON s recent depiction of contemporary migration flows as being the largest movement of people to European countries since the Second World War gives a perfect measure of both the challenges and the opportunities waiting ahead for regions and cities affected by migration flows across the continent. The same document quoted above, the 2015 Policy Brief on Territorial and Urban Aspects of migration and Refugee inflow touches on two key points. The first one concerns the enhancement of multilevel governance arrangements, which would be able to facilitate the integration of refugees in the new European environments where they have come to stay and live. The second one is focused on the demographic decline that is affecting many regions and cities across the European territory, an alarming trend ripe with direct consequences for local labour markets. ESPON analysis refers broadly to the European Union (EU) context; however, these considerations are particularly relevant for the two macro-regions (Danubian and Adriatic- Ionian) under our scrutiny, for several reasons. In fact, both are suffering from multidirectional migration flows, in addition to the refugees influx. Particularly, the so called Western Balkans are simultaneously experiencing (a) a demographic decline combined with an expanding urbanization towards the capitals; (b) an internal macro-regional movement of people in search of better life conditions, and (c) an external mobility involving people who are simply leaving their country of origins for other destinations, mainly Western EU Member States, or overseas (cf. IMF, 2014). This mobility process, which is responsible for the depopulation of broad areas, will be investigated during the research implementation, through data collection: more precisely, the research will aim at the reconstruction of the most relevant flows and the assessment of their impact on urban and territorial cohesion. Similar trends have been reported also for the Danubian region, although under less dramatic conditions. The Visegrad countries together with Romania and Bulgaria are suffering from depopulation trends, especially in terms of youngsters leaving the mentioned areas. Moreover, the region is at the same time a recipient of migration flows originating from the Eastern Partnership countries. The MMWD partnership (Making Migration Work for Development) 1 has given the same portrait of the context in its report titled Ambivalent Neighbours: Demographic Change and Growth Strategies in South-East Europe. In the document, trends like widespread ageing; population under 40 years shrinking and weighting less and less on the total population; lack of improvement in educational levels also in the most developed South-East Europe (SEE) regions, have been all identified as core challenges commonly faced by the area (Colleo and Daraio, 2014: 9). 1 MMWD is a strategic project co-funded by the South-East Europe Transnational Cooperation Programme, through the European Regional Development Fund and the Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance, under Priority Axis 4: Development of transnational synergies for sustainable growth areas. ESPON

8 Against this backdrop, the overall complexity of the context is socially aggravated by the difficulties emerging at the level of local governments and municipalities in facing the recent flow of protection seekers and migrants coming from the Southern Mediterranean area and the Middle East. The need of a proper support for integration; inclusive measures; assistance to vulnerable people; timely asylum procedures; language and education policies is not only at risk of impacting negatively on the social context of the region, but could also worsen the still fragile political conditions of SEE. In fact, the territorial cohesion is specifically under socio-political stress - for peculiar reasons and local mechanisms, despite the EU commitment to offer the membership to the whole Western Balkans. One of the latest examples of such fragility is the political reverberations of the events related to the Catalonia independence referendum in some of the countries of the two macro-regions, as in the cases of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia (Kovacevic 2017; Reuters 2017). Therefore, it shall not be overlooked that political intervention in the area as well as outside potentially attractive examples can lead to unfavourable consequences, either by making integration harder or by intensifying the political stress on the region and on the territorial cohesion. As for the Adriatic-Ionian region, the products licensed by project AdriGov (Adriatic Governance Operational Plan) constitute an important starting point. In particular, the report Innovation through integration in territorial policies for the Adriatic-Ionian region - Ideas for reflection from a local and regional perspective presents the experience of the Regional Laboratory on macro-regional issues run by Emilia-Romagna Region from 2012 onwards. It intends to set the basis for the promotion of a new cultural approach to research, innovation as well as qualification for the territorial policies of the local and regional entities. The report focuses on a new, cross-cutting approach to public policies and on the new tools for the coordination of regional development. It avails itself of geo-politics, historical, ethnographic and anthropological, statistical contributions, in order to enrich the socio-economical evaluations, which are the necessary knowledge ground for a quality set of territorial development policies. The report focuses also on the first implementation of the EU Strategy for the Adriatic and Ionian Region (EUSAIR) from the point of view of the local and regional institutions involved in that process, following a cross-cutting, integrated approach. As described in the report, the Adriatic-Ionian macro regional project could constitute a useful tool supporting an integrate geo-policy, for it outlines a potentially important reference framework that incorporates four EU Member States and four candidate countries (or countries in a condition to become such), in an area toward which the EU has pledged a formal commitment of inclusion since the Thessaloniki European Council held in This commitment was followed by consistent flows of financial help, as well as by negotiations for stabilization and association agreements. At the same time, however, the EU has encouraged or promoted various regional cooperation policies that did not manage to go beyond the development of more intense multilateral relations, eventually disattending the ultimate goal of geopolitical inclusion of the areas into EU dynamics. Take, for instance, the EU proposal of creating a common market in the Western Balkans: initially upheld in March 2017 by EU ESPON

9 Commissioner for Enlargement Johannes Hahn, such proposal became better known as the plan on a Regional Economic Area, as agreed at the annual meeting of the Berlin process held in Trieste on 12 July 2017 (EC, 2017; Mejdini, 2017). However, the envisaged advantages of removing barriers for regional economic cooperation received a cold reception among the intended targeted governments in the region, as these measures were considered, among other things, as a worrying diversion from the goal of EU admission (Robinson and Bytyci, 2017). It is argued here that the Adriatic-Ionian macro-regional project represents instead a leap toward innovation, to the extent that it outlines an institutional situation (although of a soft nature), which includes Member States and countries waiting to become such. It thus constructs a psychologically and structurally inclusive bridge towards South-East Europe, in a highly delicate phase in the EU processes of expansion and broadening. In principle, then, this geopolitical choice presents a unique opportunity for the Adriatic-Ionian space: it allows for the strengthening of intra-adriatic Ionian relations in a strategic and systematic way from different points of view, attaching them directly to European integration processes as never seen before and regardless of the state in which the negotiations take place. Or simply, it is conducive for strengthening the relations between the single Balkan states and the EU. Understood in these terms, the macro regional project represents an interesting experiment in interim step towards EU adhesion. Direct cooperation with Member States on themes of common interest can have multifarious effects, ranging from the re-organization of the regional/local administrations to the development of a much more efficient, vaster and European network of communication. As for the Danube region, studies were developed on Regional and sub-regional initiatives in East and Central Europe with a focus on the organizations and cross-border cooperation networks (CBC), on the experiences of the first 25 years of Visegrad Cooperation (Visegrad Group, V4), including achievements, challenges, and prospects. However, since the Visegrad fund has also directed its support to enhance the integration process of the Western Balkans in the EU, the studies developed so far have dealt with both the different position occupied by individual WB countries in the priorities of the Visegrad Group, and the macro regional interaction between the Adriatic-Ionian and the Danubian macro region in terms of sociopolitical interdependence, mutual influence and cross-border territorial cooperation. The recent refugee flows have impacted on these dynamics in unbalanced forms, subsequently affecting the implementation of integration strategies despite the will of a political dialogue between the two areas. The first year of the implementation of the EU-Turkey agreement has proven to be difficult and dysfunctional, while readmissions from Greece to Turkey demonstrate to be lengthy and not immune from several administrative and legal issues. The potential collapse of the EU- Turkey deal, together with the deteriorating and volatile situation in the countries of origin and the improving weather conditions that favours sea transits, suggest a high risk of new influxes ESPON

10 from Turkey into Greece. At the same time, there are signs that refugees are increasingly seeking alternative routes, signalling potential alternative ways to enter the EU, for instance through the Black Sea or Albania. Although Albania and Kosovo (under UN Security Council Resolution 1244) have largely been a source of irregular migration, the increasing migrant flows from outside Europe has entailed a shift in trends, turning de facto the region into a transit zone. The UNHCR Bureau for Europe (2017) highlights that Western Balkans have become an important hotspot and one of the main migration routes to the EU. It is foreseen that an increasing number of refugees and migrants from Afghanistan, Pakistan, Palestine, Syria, Somalia and North Africa are arriving from Turkey and/or Greece, transiting across the region through the Western Balkans route. Of particular concern is the growing number of unaccompanied or separated children moving irregularly, mostly from Afghanistan. As stated by CEI in the documents on the ADRION programme and the management of migrations, in the second half of 2015 the EU Commission redirected all policies and programmes once targeting the improvement of the capacity of the EU and of the candidate South-Eastern partner countries, towards the emerged need to cope with the management of the migration flows. Many sector programmes, directly managed by the Commission services, are already implementing actions addressed to specific features of the migration policy, like sanitary issues, migrants entrepreneurship, vocational training, civic education and intercultural relationship, not to mention the new operations set for the cooperation with the countries of origin in a view of migration compact approach. CEI reports also that already in September 2015 the European Commissioner for the Regional Policy advocated for the relevance of the social and investment funds for finding answers to the financial needs of the Member States more affected by the incoming flows of migrants, in view of the long-lasting structural character of the problem. The European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) can support the integration of migrants through various measures, such as investments in social, health, education, housing and childcare infrastructures; the regeneration of deprived urban areas; actions meant to reduce the spatial and educational isolation of migrants; business start-ups. These actions could even be packaged into integrated urban development strategies. In fact, 20 billion euro from the ERDF are earmarked for inclusive growth measures under the programming period. Furthermore, the DG REGIO started exploring how the ESIF could further contribute to addressing the migration challenge in the framework of cross border cooperation programmes and macro-regional strategies. For the latter goal, the question has turned rather into one of understanding how these kind of actions, that were not such a priority when the programmes were being prepared before 2015, can be included into the changing programmes in order to adapt to the new circumstances. Within this framework, the Declaration of the Adriatic-Ionian Council/EUSAIR Ministerial Meeting in the occasion of the 1 st Forum of the EUSAIR in Dubrovnik (12 May 2016), stated inter alia to strengthen the ESPON

11 resilience of participating Countries in coping with the refugees and migration crisis 2. Member States are called to revise their cohesion policy programmes (ESF, ERDF) in order to make better use of the available resources and provide (more) support to asylum seekers and refugees. This purpose should be realized through the analysis of emerging needs and challenges, yet it will also require to take into account the consequences of the crisis situation in the long term, pushing for innovative proposals like the use of the remaining EU support available under the period It is relevant to note that the analysis covering the Adriatic-Ionian and Danube macro-regions will be also a testing laboratory for identifying useful methodologies and relevant data sources for comparative analysis that can be applied to other European regions confronted with similar challenges. On the subjects of data and comparisons, the project titled SEEMIG - Managing Migration and its Effects in South-East Europe (concluded in 2014), has warned that: despite growing (policy) attention given to international migration and attempts to standardise and harmonise migration-related data collection in recent decades, accurate and reliable migration data are still scarce [ ] especially in the South-East European region (SEEMIG, 2014: 4). While we are aware of the challenge of (harmonised) data in our project, we will take in the highest consideration the recommendations of previous projects, as the SEEMIG itself, for the elaboration of our methodology and the collection of data in the concerned areas. Our service will be structured around six Tasks (see Chapter 2), which are designed to meet the stakeholders knowledge needs, so as defined in the Terms of Reference (ToR). 1.1 Previous ESPON projects: existing knowledge and lessons from the past Being aware that previous ESPON projects have already dealt with demographic and migration issues, a preliminary assessment of their findings has been started by the University of Bologna and IECOB. These projects, in fact, deal with topics that are close to those that the present offer aims to analyse, and provide relevant insights upon which we intend to build further. Although resorting to different perspectives, they offer comparable information and evidence on territorial potentials and challenges focusing on opportunities for success for the development of regions and cities, that can be highly inspiring for our current research endeavour. However, it is extremely relevant to note that these projects did not include data about the Western Balkans (Croatia was considered only in the ATTREG project, and in the SEMIGRA project together with Serbia and Macedonia, former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia or FYROM) which therefore represent a gap that needs to be bridged. The present offer is therefore aimed at connecting the Western Balkan area with the Danubian basin, by collecting comparable data that will be useful for understanding the dynamics that 2 The full document can be accessed here: df ESPON

12 are affecting the SEE as a whole, and interacting with previous ESPON projects and, on a broader level, with existing knowledge DEMIFER Demographic and Migratory Flows Affecting European Regions and Cities DEMIFER is the main reference project for the description of the population dynamics and the impact of migration flows on them. The project has indeed showed that the socio-economic situation within the Adriatic-Ionian and Danube macro-regions is very diverse. However, large parts of the regions face severe demographical challenges in terms of population decline, aging and shrinking of the labour force. Three Policy brief (2011) have been provided. In the first one, titled Demographic Diversity of the European Territory : A typology of regions based on demographic and migratory aspects has been developed using data from 2005 and trends Territorial similarities as well as territorial diversity have been found. Ageing of the population is one of the main challenges in the context of territorial cohesion, also considering the diversity of territory and policies in the European regions. The second Policy brief, Impact of Migration on Population Change states that: International migration is the most important force behind European population change, but the impact of internal migration is also taken into consideration (ESPON, 2011b: 2). Migration will have a significant impact on demographic and labour force development of regions, benefitting most affluent regions whereas poor regions will likely lose population due to emigration, thus increasing ageing. As a result, migration is expected to be a strong factor increasing regional disparities. To prevent this, it might be important to stimulate policies reducing incentives to emigrate from poor to wealthy regions and policies allowing poor regions to attract more extra-european migrants. Particularly, extra-european migration must be complemented by integration policies to avoid further labour market segmentation: migration policies will only be successful if they are combined with policies to promote territorial cohesion in other areas as well, such as integration, education, housing and labour market policies (ESPON, 2011b: 4). As for the last Policy brief, Scenarios in the European Labour Force : A future population decline is clearly pointed out, leading to a decline in the labour force as well: Without changes in the levels of fertility, mortality and migration, 60% of European regions will experience population decline by In addition, if labour force participation rates do not change, the size of the labour force will decline in 75% of the regions until 2050 (ESPON, 2011c: 1). Exploring different policy options aiming at regional competitiveness and territorial cohesion, it has been found out that: (i) family friendly policies may increase labour force participation; (ii) policy aimed at reducing the number of inactive people may mitigate the effects of ageing; (iii) immigration policies may increase the size of the working age population, though integration policies need to be pursued as well. ESPON

13 1.1.2 SEMIGRA Selective Migration and Unbalanced Sex Ratio in Rural Regions Outmigration of young adults (particularly women) is regarded as both a cause and an indicator for economic and social fragility. Against this background, the SEMIGRA project sought to identify the main reasons and consequences of selective migration in rural regions. The following areas of intervention have been considered to be significant: measures aimed at enabling an ideal and flexible reconciliation of family and work and sensitive towards women s needs; measures capable of improving the image of the regions under consideration, specifically targeting young women; measures focusing on social infrastructure for young people, women and families (e.g. providing public services, sponsoring cultural activities); measures aimed at fully exploiting the possibilities offered by new communication technologies. Of particular interest, the table Policy recommendations and levels of implementation (ESPON, 2012: 16) ATTREG (Attractiveness of European Regions and Cities for Residents and Visitors) ATTREG focused on a variety of forms of territorial capital as potential determinants of attractiveness for specific audiences (e.g. workers, taxpayers, passers-by). Attractiveness is understood as a combination of both natural/environmental and social, cultural factors, following the assumption that territorial assets can determine the pathways of regional and local development. ATTREG suggested already in 2013 that investments in social capital (e.g. infrastructure, service quality and cultural initiatives) are linked to the territorial attractiveness exercised by a given area, namely to the capacity to attract new residents (including migrants). Interestingly, the said investments reveal to be most effective when they are embedded in a wider regional, or urban strategy that is rooted in local potentials and a place-based approach (ESPON, 2013: 11). Therefore, ATTREG emphasizes attractiveness as both a precondition for sustainable local development, and a key concept within territorial cohesion strategies. Data and methodologies for the determination of attractiveness factors and for the development of indicators represent certainly useful models of reference that will be scrutinized in our project ECR2 (Economic Crisis: Resilience of Regions) ECR2 has explored the geography of the recent economic crisis in Europe, with the aim of explaining why some regions experience faster recovery from economic downturns than others: in one word, resilience. Clearly enough, the issues of depopulation and internal migration that will be analysed in our research can benefit from the findings of this study, ESPON

14 since they may contribute to the understanding of socio-economic trends across the regions and of the features of arrival, transit and destination territories. The ECR2 team has identified four components that are more likely to influence the degree of resilience of a given territory, which are: businesses, economy and the business environment; people and the population; place-based characteristics; and community or societal characteristics. ECR2 stresses that the foundations of resilient economies are formed over a sustained period of time, directing then a crucial recommendation to regional policymakers: the support of innovation, the building of flexible capacities, the development of skills and the participation in the labour market are all fundamental aspects for a regional socioeconomic system that needs tools to resist economic shocks and ensure territorial resilience. On the same line of ATTREG, ECR2 recommended also that policy actions should be shaped by the places in which they are to act (ESPON, 2014: 49). Two main reasons seem to support this contention: the shocks themselves, and their effects, vary across time and space and require thus place-shaped solutions accordingly. Secondly, locallybased actions can at times work better to meet the specific needs of local economies. At the same time, the project suggests that improved management of crisis requires resilience to be built on the integration of national and sub-national approaches, with risks being shared across territories with the scope of limiting the absolute effects on particular individuals or localities TiPSE (The Territorial Dimension of Poverty and Social Exclusion in Europe) TiPSE provides a valid example for how to use data and indicators to map diversity in regional patterns of poverty and social exclusion across Europe. Its methodology, which is the result of reflections about challenges, risks, and methodologies for overcoming them, can be highly inspirational for the development of our project, in the light of the similar challenges faced with data and indicators. It is worth mentioning here that: Traditional indicators for a given phenomena may present a number of flaws that compromise the final representation of data (for poverty and social exclusion, for example, TiPSE notes that data can be spatially disaggregated; may not cover less material aspects of social exclusion; create problems in terms of the disclosure of personal information; and are not always comparable). Moreover, the methodology should be responsive to several challenges, which include among others: the significant number of gaps in the database ; differences in definition between countries ; differences in the way in which exclusion processes take place within different geographic and cultural contexts, that is, lack of comparability in the interpretation of an indicator, as partly suggested also by DEMIFER, ATTREG and ECR2 (ESPON, 2014c: 39). For what concerns the findings of TiPSE, the Executive Summary of the Final Report has highlighted relevant aspects that are briefly summarized below: Space is a contributing factor in relieving or worsening poverty and exclusion, and it plays a role in reproducing and intensifying individual experiences of social exclusion or poverty. ESPON

15 Exclusion is often made worse by immobility, namely the inability to relocate (for its linkages with income generation; participation in social activities and so on). Meanings and practices related to exclusion vary between cultural and policy contexts, to the point that risk factors (e.g. unemployment) do not carry the same meaning everywhere in Europe. According to TiPSE, welfare regimes are part and parcel of this diversity ITAN (Integrated Territorial Analysis of the Neighbourhood) This project provides insights on EU neighbour regions in order to support targeted policy development in the light of Cohesion Policy aimed: (1) at improving regional competitiveness as well as sustainable and balanced growth of the European territory, (2) at promoting European integration in a connecting world economy, and (3) at supporting evidence-based cross-border cooperation along external borders. This project provides necessary territorial evidence highlighting topics of interest, such as flows and socio-economic dynamics, for cooperation activities with neighbouring regions and their cities. Main results: Evidence on the territorial state, structures and trends in selected cities and regions. Targeted case studies providing more focused and detailed information. Insights and reports on trends and perspectives, translating the project results into policy options for policy makers at national, regional and local level. Indicators offering information on territorial potentials for advantageous cooperation options with EU neighbouring states. Maps revealing, territorial key structures, and trends within the neighbour regions of the ESPON territory as well as flows between these regions and the ESPON territory ET2050 (Territorial Scenarios and Visions for Europe) This project has provided for updated demographic trends and scenarios: It is stated that the annual growth for Europe between may be about around 1,90% in average if actual policies and technologies remain without significant changes, and the rest of the world follows a baseline trend. Growth in Europe is expected to be uneven territorially, with 44 regions grow less than 1% or even having negative growth over the whole period, mostly less developed Southern regions. The unemployment level in many European regions will keep driving salaries down in real terms at least for the next decade, and will also induce intra European labour migrations towards more developed and aged regions, with higher salaries and better social welfare systems. More jobs could be created in Europe overall if the trend towards lower salaries continues for the next decade. It is suggested that European Territorial Development may become a common Policy: based on an overall vision of its future development to support the better coordination of European policies with regional development with local and regional spatial development plans. The aim is multi level governance enabling territorial planning and cooperation (ESPON, 2014b: 23). ESPON

16 1.1.8 Conclusions In conclusion, previous ESPON projects remark that socio-economic phenomena generate always different territorial impacts, not least for the different cultural aspects, or again the diverse institutional framework (e.g. welfare regimes) that characterize the area of our study. To put it differently, there are specific place-based challenges that require more local knowledge, in order to suggest viable solutions in long-term perspective. Nevertheless, this information can be useful also for establishing more efficient, long-term transnational and macro-regional cooperation, whose interdependency between local strategies and macroregional strategies has been recently underscored also by MMWD (Colleo and Daraio, 2014: 63). ESPON

17 2 The conceptual and methodological framework and the tasks The conceptual and methodological framework that will be applied for the service is built on the specific competences of the team partners. The team is equipped with different areas of expertise, which consist of: a specific knowledge of the geopolitical landscape of Eastern Europe and Balkans region; a valuable expertise on migration from legal, political, historical, economic and sociological perspectives, and on the internal as well as on the European and international dimensions of migration. The team can also count on the technical know-how of geographers, which include operational knowledge of systems for the management of geographical data such as Geographic Information System (GIS). As for the methodological approach, the team partners offer a new and innovative method to map migration flows, focusing on the collection and creation of statistical data that could be easily used for a cartographical representation of the investigated phenomena, in accordance with the guidance on mapping provided by ESPON. Both qualitative and quantitative indicators, derived from different sources, will be used for these purposes. Migration issues depend on many factors that contribute to determine the choice of migration destinations by the involved individuals. Hence, representing and displaying graphically this type of phenomena through thematic maps, and periodically update them on the ground of variations in flows, which in turn depend on multiple variables factors, turns out to be a problematic undertaking. Against this backdrop, the choice of the methodology to address and resolve the problem has a characterization of uniqueness and innovation. The team will focus on the main socio-economic and geographical data provided by institutional databases with the aim of highlighting the territorial features of the involved territories - such as the presence of regular migration-networks. Quantitative data were extrapolated from existing sources and databases (e.g. previous ESPON projects; international organizations like IOM, OECD, UNHCR; national statistical offices). New publications and data deliveries will be closely monitored during the development of the project, especially for the purpose of promptly integrating scarce post-2011 available data. The Nomenclature of territorial units for statistics (NUTS) at levels 2 and 3 provides a framework of reference for data collection and organization in EU countries as well as in those candidate and potential candidate countries, where such system of classification has been established by concerned authorities. Where it is absent, the SNUTS ( Similar to NUTS ) nomenclature and mapping elaborated by the ITAN project will be applied. Collected data will be entered into a structured database, according to the defined parameters. The database platform is developed to take into account provided variables, and it will allow the analysis of migration flows also within GIS, and contemplates the use of mathematic modelling of gravitational type, which will be applied to define the so-called O/D matrix (Origin/Destination). The O/D matrix (Fig. 1) consists of data tables that allow to organize numerical data regarding people movements and relocations. Movements are identified by an Origin zone and a Destination zone. Firstly, the survey identifies the regions and the specific place of generation and attraction related to migration ESPON

18 flows, according to specific variables and parameters (social, political, economic, religious, etc.), and to data collected in Task 1. Within the analysed units in the macro-regions, two types of territorial zones are identified: areas I (Internal) will be considered as Internal areas of migration, i.e. zones where migration are originated, and where both internal migration to adjacent regions and migration to non-adjacent or remote regions cohexist. Areas E (External) will be considered External flow areas, understood as remote attraction regions for migration flows, where the local population is not involved in migration dynamics. In addition to I and E zones, also specific individual places (e.g. cities), which are characterised by strong attraction factors as well as concentration of migrant population will be selected within the two zones. The aim of such methodological approach is to define the structure of O/D matrix (Origin/Destination), which collects the numerical data and organizes them according to areas of Origin of the migratory flow and to areas of Destination of the migratory flow. The matrix will be organized in blocks that clearly identify flow numeric data in zones I; zones E; within the specific place of attraction; and the displacement flows between all areas (Cross-over flows). The block diagram of the O/D matrix (Fig. 1) and the graphic scheme of the areas of migration Origin and Destination (Fig. 2) are the following: Figure 2.1 Block diagram of the O/D matrix f 1-1 Internal flow: internal relocation in regions that are also regions of migration f 1-2 Internal flow: from adjacent areas into the region of migration f 2-1 Internal flow: from adjacent areas into the region of migration f 3-3 Internal flow: internal relocation into a specific area inside a region of migration f 1-8 External flow: relocation from regions of migration to a remote region f 4-9 External flow: relocation from a specific place in a region of migration to a remote region f 8-1 External flow: return flows from a non-adjacent or remote region to regions of migration f 9-11 External flow: relocation from a non-adjacent or remote region to another non-adjacent or remote region ESPON

19 Figure 2.2 Graphic scheme of migration flows The above-mentioned framework will be improved further by the expertise of the other partners, and by the collection of both quantitative and qualitative data, the latter chiefly through focus group discussions and interviews (see next chapters). The project framework envisages six tasks, which shall not be treated as separate matters. Quite the opposite, the tasks will be dealt with in close connection one with the other, and their inter-connectedness emphasized where most pertinent, with the goal of realising synergies leading to a comprehensive achievement of the tasks and the intuitive presentation of results. This mentioned inter-connectedness is anticipated to be particularly relevant for tasks 1 and 4, and 2 and 3. Task 1: Carrying out a comparative analysis of the recent migration and refugee flows in the Adriatic and Ionian and Danube macro-regions. The purpose of this task is to analyse and map (using both quantitative and qualitative approaches, also in connection to Task 4) the migration and refugee flows experienced by the two macro-regions since The main emphasis should be on the nature of the flows (arrival, transit and final destination) and on selected features of the socio-economic background of migrants and refugees (e.g. labour skills and education). Task 2: Identifying and measuring the key territorial features of regions and cities that are associated with attracting migrants and refugees. Not all the regions (especially the ones that could potentially benefit the most from immigration) are attractive to migrants and refugees as the final destination 3. Against this backdrop, this task shall strive to achieve a better understanding of the significance of regions and cities attractiveness (or lack of 3 See also previous ESPON projects, such as ATTREG, in Chapter 1. ESPON

20 attractiveness) in the Adriatic and Ionian and Danube macro-regions, and the opportunities they may offer to migrants and refugees, when such conditions exist. It shall identify the key ingredients of attractiveness (or the lack of them) in different types of territories, from big cities to rural settlements, taking into account issues such as integration policies and instruments in place, access to services, labour market situation, well-being and quality of life as well as cultural and historical ties with existing migrant and refugee communities, if available. Task 3: Analysis of the development challenges and opportunities for regions and cities in relation to the recent migration and refugee flows in the Adriatic-Ionian and Danube macroregions. This task will be developed in continuity with the findings of Task 2, analysing if, where and under what conditions migrants and refugees now streaming into the Adriatic and Ionian and Danube macro-regions could be best integrated into local societies and whether they could also contribute to reducing demographic and economic imbalances. The study should explore possible short, medium and long-term effects of migration into these regions, considering the most relevant current socio-economic development trends and results from Task 1. Task 4: Identifying and mapping typologies. Based on the interaction with previous tasks, and especially Task 1, this task addresses the need to combine the derived variables and indicators in order to generate area typologies with similar characteristics. The typology shall take into account the nature of the flows: arrival, transit and final destination at regional and sub-regional levels, existing regional and urban typologies, regional/urban socio-economic and institutional contexts. Team experts in economic-geography will analyse data pertaining recent migration and refugee flows in the available NUTS composing the two macro-regions, as well as the key territorial features of regions and cities that are associated with attracting migrants and refugees. With the technical support of ESPON mapping instruments, qualitative assessment tools, GIS and benchmarking, the analysis will focus on the main geographical data provided by institutional databases, with the aim of highlighting the territorial crucial features of the involved territories as well as their integration and cooperation with other Regions or cities of other Regions. The EU dimension and the Interreg/transnational and cross-border perspectives, in fact, require a macro-regional approach (within the communitarian framework) towards immigration and, mostly, towards planning and governance. Collected data will be entered into a structured database, according to defined parameters. The O/D matrix presented above will be redefined and improved according to specific mathematic models and parameters. We called these mathematic algorithms Models of Generation (Mod. Gen.). Mod. Gen. are gravitational behavioural models, based on theories of human behaviour. Within these models all the parameters and indexes defined in Tasks 1, 2 and 3 are inserted and conveniently adapted and processed. Beyond the factors derived by the O/D matrix, we consider several other factors also outlined in Task 1, 2 and 3 which defines the Correction Model Factors. The structure of Mod. Gen. is the following: ESPON

21 Figure 2.3 Structure of Models of Generation F 1,n ij = N. of flows generated by the i zones towards the j zone for explanations from 1 to n Oi = Total number of trips generated by i zone D j = Total number of people moving to j zone w1 = is the weight of the distance factor w2 = is the weight of the factor of attraction C0j = is a coefficient that takes into account accessibility factors to j zone dji = is path distance between the i and the j zone α = is a coefficient that expresses the flexibility of displacements respect to the distance Correction Model Factors This is a general model and will be adapted according to investigation results and statistical parameters definition, related to migration analysis. As said, the obtained F 1,n ij values will fulfil the specific O/D matrix defined in a similar way. This new O/D matrix will be exploited for criteria assignment, to define in OpenSource GIS graphics parameters related to the realization of migration flows thematic maps. Task 5: Case study analyses. For each of the case study areas, a thorough analysis is expected on the concrete challenges the local development in a transnational perspective is confronted with, both in terms of migration and refugee flows, but also in terms of governance and delivering strategies that cater for integration and inclusive socio-economic development. As specified in the ToR, case study analysis should include an in-depth analysis of: migrant and refugee flows and key socio-economic trends affecting the stakeholder territories; integration policies and policy instruments and the potential of transferability of best practices; territorial cooperation on this matter within the macro-region. Task 6: Policy recommendations. It will put forth policy recommendations for the macroregions concerned, but also for cities and regions across Europe being confronted with migration and refugee inflow related challenges. The policy recommendations should focus on how different territories can overcome challenges of unpredictable and big scale inflows, manage integration and enhance the potentials in their endeavours to cope with the current migration and refugee inflows within their strategic policy and development objectives. As specified in the ToR, the policy recommendations should address the following questions: How to manage integration? How can integration policies be linked to already existing policies? How to best use cohesion policy instruments to boost the integration process of immigrants and refugees and enhance social and economic inclusion? How to best finance both emergency management and medium and long-term integration? How to tap the potential of the migration and refugee flows as a development factor in contributing to reducing demographic and economic imbalances? How to better facilitate a balanced ESPON

22 territorial distribution of the migration and refugee flows in the two macro-regions, considering the different geographical scales (macro-regional, national, regional, urban), to reduce the negative impacts and enhance the positive ones? How to support a balanced distribution of migrants and refugees according to territorial needs and potential attractiveness of the territories to migrants and refugees? How can policy makers improve the attractiveness of their city or region by reconciling the interests of both, residents and visitors in order to best overcome the challenges in reducing the increasing demographic and economic imbalances? Particular attention should be given to the strategic deployment of European Structural and Investment Funds in the current programming period and the delivery of the Urban Agenda Inclusion of Migrants and Refugees objectives in line with the Europe 2020 objectives of smart, sustainable and inclusive growth, but also more to the specification of new provisos on structural goals related to migration management in the regulatory framework for the ESIF implementation in view of the next programming for the years Overview on data and data sources This section contains a glimpse of the data and the sources that have been accessed by the team, and spells out also the strategies put in place to deal with challenges emerged during this activity Task 1 Task 1 clearly sets out two sub-goals, the first one being the analysis of the recent migration and refugee flows in the two macro-regions (arrival, transit, and final destination), while the second component concerns the socio-economic background of the migrants and refugees (demographic features, labour skills and education). In relation to the first sub-goal encapsulated in Task 1, the team has broke down the analysis identifying three types of flows (see also Annex 1), namely: (a) internal flows to each country; (b) internal flows to the macroregions, (c) external flows to the macro-regions (mainly asylum seekers). Data covering each point are listed below. (a) For the analysis of the internal flows to each country, the research team has collected: DATA AT NUTS3 level: for Croatia, Italy, Romania and Slovenia (data coming from national statistical offices). Although not originally available according to the NUTS classification, the team has obtained the same detailed result also for Albania, Macedonia (former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia or FYROM) and Montenegro. For Albania, we have adapted statistics on population by prefectures (2015 and 2016) as well as on percentage of rural/urban areas to the NUTS statistical division. For Macedonia (former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia or FYROM), we did the same thing starting from data at the municipality level. And in the case of Montenegro, we have data on migration and net migration by municipalities for 2015 and 2016, and on internal migration by age and sex for 2015 and 2016 at the national level. The team is aware that this classification cannot be operationalized in the Montenegrin NUTS classification, as the country consists of one statistical region only in all three levels. DATA equatable with NUTS3 level: the team banks on detailed data gathered for Serbia, which will be organized territorially through SNUTS classification. The statistical release on the internal ESPON