The Economic Roadmap to Peace in the Middle East

Transcription

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2 The Economic Roadmap to Peace in the Middle East

3 US$ Billions 4.8 Palestinian Authority GDP

4 The Palestinian Authority Labor Market PA West Bank Gaza Employer Self Employed Employee Unpaid Total

5 Palestinian Authority Unemployment Percent West Bank and Gaza Gaza West Bank

6 Palestinian Authority Unemployment by Age Group Percent Total Male

7 NIS Wages of Palestinian Authority Workers West Bank Israel and Settlements Gaza Median daily net pay Mean daily net pay

8 Poverty in the Palestinian Authority Percent of employed in poverty

9 Middle East Overview 2% 2% 3% 1% 2% 1% 3% 3% 4% Inflation 50% 3% 2% 25% 22% 19% 14% 30% 10% Unemployed -22% 9% 5% 5% 3% 6% 6% 3% 3% Real GDP growth $800 $21,500 $23,200 $11,800 $4,300 $4,000 $6,900 $6,400 $3,710 GDP per capita $2 $18 $58 $288 $24 $128 $69 $35 $295 GDP (bls) 32 Morocco 9.9 Tunisia 5.6 Libya 25.8 Saudi Arabia 5.7 Jordan 4 UAE 2.3 Pal. Auth Qatar 76 Egypt Population (mls)

10 Middle East Stock Market Overview Egypt Tunisia Morocco Saudi Arabia UAE Qatar Pal. Auth

11 Oil Prices Real and Nominal US$ per barrel 100 Oil nominal price Oil real price

12 Middle Eastern Equity Indices Have Soared Since the End of the War 2000= Egypt Israel Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Saudi Arabia UAE End of open hostilities in Iraq

13 The Region s Main Stock Markets 1995= Egypt Israel Saudi Arabia 2nd Intifada End of War in Iraq Sharm Summit

14 Jordan, Israel and the Palestine Authority Stock Markets 2002= Palestinian Authority Israel Jordan 180 End of War in Iraq Sharm Summit

15 Capital Access Index Gauging Entrepreneurial Access to Capital Max = USA Israel Kuwait Jordan Egypt 4.0 Saudi Arabia

16 Opacity Score Card Max = Egypt Lebanon Israel Saudi Arabia

17 The Region s Largest Economies GDP, $US billions 200 Israel Saudi Arabia 160 Iran Egypt

18 Inflation in the Region s Largest Economies CPI, % change 40 Israel Saudi Arabia 30 Iran Egypt

19 Balance of Payments in the Region s Largest Economies US$, billions 80 Israel Iran 60 Saudi Arabia Egypt

20 Growth in Israel s Neighbors GDP, $US billions 20 Syria Lebanon 16 Jordan West Bank and Gaza

21 Inflation in Israel s Neighbors CPI, % change 15 Syria Jordan

22 Slow Economic Growth in the Gulf GDP, $US billions 80 UAE Oman 60 Bahrain Kuwait

23 Rapid Labor Growth in the Gulf Labor force, millions 2.0 UAE Oman 1.6 Bahrain Kuwait

24 GDP, $US billions 100 Algeria Tunisia 80 Slow But Stable Economic Growth in the Maghreb Morocco

25 Inflation in the Maghreb CPI, % change 24 Algeria Tunisia 18 Morocco

26 The Middle East Comprises 5% of World Population Middle East Other

27 The Middle East Comprises 2% of World Output Middle East Other

28 The Middle East Comprises 60% of World Terrorism Other Middle East

29 Population is Burgeoning Mean % change, Middle East High Income U.S.

30 Per Capita GDP has Stagnated Mean % change, Middle East High Income U.S.

31 Per Capita GDP has Fallen in Some States % change, Jordan Bahrain S. Arabia Algeria Syria Israel M. East U.S. Egypt Hi. income

32 Banks are Poorly Run Bank Governance: CAI Moroc. Egypt S. Arabia Kuwait Jordan U.S. Qatar UAE Israel Bahr. Oman Lebanon

33 Equity Markets are Inefficient Equity Markets: CAI UAE Iran S. Arabia Oman Jordan Egypt Israel Qatar Moroc. Lebanon Bahr. Kuwait US

34 Entrepreneurs Lack Capital Capital Access Index S. Arabia UAE Moroc. Lebanon Kuwait Israel Iran Qatar Egypt Jordan Oman Bahr. U.S.

35 Middle Eastern Countries Trade % of World Total Trade GDP

36 Middle Eastern Countries Trade - But Not With Each Other Intraregional Trade, % of Total Trade Middle East Africa N. America Lat. America Asia West. Europe

37 Repression is Commonplace Political Rights, lower is better Syria S. Arabia Iran UAE Qatar Lebanon Jordan Kuwait USA Egypt Algeria Oman Bahrain Israel

38 Civil Rights are Violated Civil Liberties, lower is better Syria S. Arabia Iran UAE Qatar Algeria Oman Kuwait USA Egypt Jordan Lebanon Bahrain Israel

39 Private Property is at Risk Property Rights, lower is better Iran Syria Jordan S. Arabia Egypt Oman UAE Israel Bahrain USA

40 Low Incomes in the Middle East US$ GDP Per Capita Egypt Jordan Iran LebanonS. Arabia Kuwait UAE Syria Moroc. Algeria M. East Oman Bahr. Israel USA

41 % of Population Aged Under Young Populations in the Middle East S. ArabiaJordan Algeria Moroc. Iran Israel Kuwait USA Oman Syria M. East Egypt Lebanon Bahr. Qatar UAE

42 % Unemployed 50 Few Opportunities in the Middle East Algeria S. Arabia Moroc. Iran Pales. Auth. Jordan Syria Lebanon Egypt Kuwait Israel USA

43 Israel s Stock Market Performance 1995=

44 1995= Israel s Relative Stock Market Performance Israel (TSE-25) Dow

45 1995= Israel s Relative Stock Market Performance Israel (TSE-25) NASDAQ

46 Real GDP Growth in Israel Real GDP, % change

47 Labor Force Growth in Israel Labor force, % change

48 Inflation in Israel CPI, % change

49 US$, billions 6 Israel s Balance of Payments

50 Impact of the Intifada on Tourism Thousands of Nights in Hotels Foreign Guests Israeli Guests Start of Intifada

51 Israeli Banks Foreign Assets and Liabilities NIS millions Foreign Currency Assets Foreign Currency Liabilities

52 Princess Diana s Tragedy: a Global Incident

53 The Capital Market: A Milestone on the Economic Roadmap to Peace

54 The Role of the Capital Market 1. The centrality of capital market and globalization on facilitating economic growth and equality among nations 2. Capital markets and globalization transcend political, national and social boundaries, thereby increase interdependence, reciprocity and cooperation

55 Capital Market: The Magic Triangle

56 Globalizing the Capital Markets Increasing cooperation and interdependence among nations Countries that do business with each other tend not to fight each other

57 The Israeli Experience Using the capital market to promote national infrastructure projects The Project Highway 6 (Cross- Israel) The Carmel Tunnel Ashkelon Desalination Plant The Contractor Canadian Highways Infrastructure Corporation (Canada) Dragados (Spain) Vivendi (France)

58 Municipal Bonds Need to finance municipal projects such as water and sewage systems The Municipality lacks available capital Issue Municipal Bonds

59 ISA s Contribution to the Globalization of the Israeli Economy Adoption of all international accounting standards by 2008 Alignment of Israeli securities laws with those of international recognized standard setters (IOSCO) Introducing a wide variety of financial products to the Israeli market Adopting corporate governance code and encouraging listed companies to adopt code of ethics Facilitating the cooperation of Tel Aviv Stock Exchange with other stock exchanges

60 Globalizing Israel s Economy 1. Reducing tariffs and other trade barriers 2. Introducing structural changes to render the economy more competitive 3. Reducing the government s restraints and interference in the capital markets and achieving price stability

61 The Regional Dimension Give me a lever long enough and a fulcrum on which to place it, and I shall move the world Archimedes

62 The Regional Dimension Forming economic ties and relations between markets - Archimedic leverage for the improvement of the political relations Stagnation: The Middle East fails to engage with world economy Israel-Jordan Qualified Industrial Zone (QIZ): Joint venture has increased Jordanian export to US by 4000% Israel-Egypt QIZ: Signed in December 2004 BOT: A successful model to finance national projects Adoption of BOT on regional level: a major step toward the building of a modern Middle East economy

63 Conclusions Israel s economy is globally oriented Israel is ready to meet the needs of international investors Israel is ready to develop its economic ties with neighboring states

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