SYMPOSIUM ON MIGRATION AND THE FUTURE OF EMERGING MARKETS

Transcription

1 SYMPOSIUM ON MIGRATION AND THE FUTURE OF EMERGING MARKETS EGROVE PARK, OXFORD, JANUARY 218 ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK

2 Cover photo credit: A Katz / Shutterstock.com

3 217 Migration and Emerging Markets: an Analytical Framework METCALFE, L.W. GREEN TEMPLETON COLLEGE

4 1. Introduction Aim of Document Note on Data Sources Caveats Definitions Migration A Global Snapshot EMS Countries as Hosting Countries of Migrants Migrant Populations by Group Country Data: Migrant Populations & Significant Migrant Groups Emigration and Diaspora Populations from the EMS Countries Diasporas from EMS Countries by Group Country Data: Diaspora Population & Diaspora Locations Forced Migration Forced Migrant Populations in the EMS Countries by Group Forced Migrant Populations from EMS Countries Remittances Remittances Flows by Group Net Remittance Flows by Country & Main Sources of Remittance Inflows Urbanization and Internal Migration Share of Urban Population by Group Urban Population Growth by Country Population and Demographics Population Living Conditions Demographics Economy Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and National Expenditure Indicators Table of Figures References

5 1. Introduction 1.1 Aim of Document The purpose of this analytical framework is to illuminate symposium participants on some of the statistics and data surrounding migration and migration related issues in the 2 emerging market countries in the focus of the symposium as well as to provide some of the global context for these issues. In addition to providing information about migration, this document also provides relevant macroeconomic and demographic indicators both for the 2 emerging market countries as well as for selected high and low income countries for comparison. The analytical framework aims to provide a starting reference point for all those present at the symposium. Global migration is an extremely complex topic and it is to be expected that different people will come to the symposium with different areas of expertise and different degrees of familiarity with the topic of migration both in emerging markets and globally. Accordingly, this document contains some relevant statistics that can shed light on issues relating to migration for the uninitiated in the subject. Of course, for those with an extensive research background in migration these statistics and data will likely be nothing new. Further, for anyone who has a professional work history in the field of migration, these data are likely to be limited in a number of ways and it is expected that many symposium participants will bring with them their own knowledge of more detailed, more up to date, more specific data both thematically and at the country and regional level. It is impossible to contain all the facts and figures about migration in a single short document. However, it is hoped that this document contains historical data for reference and comparison and that should serve as a highly useful repository of data for both experts and non experts alike. 3

6 Figure 1.1.1: Map of Countries Table 1.1.1: List of Countries Emerging Market Countries Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Jordan, Malaysia, Mexico, Pakistan, Peru Philippines, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Thailand, Tunisia, Turkey High Income Countries (HICs) Australia, Japan, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States Low Income Countries (LICs) Bangladesh, Cambodia, Ethiopia, Haiti, Nigeria 1.2 Note on Data Sources The tables and graphs presented in this document are based on data from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) Population Division, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) Population Statistics Database, and the World Bank s Migration and Remittances Data. 1.3 Caveats Whilst this document aims to show the data, statistics, trends, and relevant information pertaining to migration as it relates to emerging markets there are some notable blind spots. Much of this stems from the nature of the topic of migration itself and the data sources used to 4

7 show the information. The data sources, UNDESA, UNHCR, and the World Bank, are generally reliable but of course nothing can be said to 1% accurate and there may be some errors in the figures. Further, data is not always available for the most recent years and there is frequently a time lag when it comes to data publication. 215 is often the most recent year of available data and it is important to keep this in mind when extrapolating further about any data points in the document. Most notably absent from this document is any discussion or information relating to regular and irregular migration or legal vs. illegal migration. This is, of course, lamentable as this is an extremely important distinction in public debates had over migration the world over. However, in the United Nations datasets there is simply no accounting for numbers of migrants who crossed borders illegally or without proper documentation compared to those that did. Illegal migration is difficult to study and find data on due to the fact that, by its very nature, it is a clandestine activity. Whilst some countries have the capacity to accurately estimate the number of illegal border crossings or undocumented migrants within their borders, for most countries (and especially for many emerging market countries) this capacity is simply beyond them. And so, for reasons of data consistency across countries as well as data accuracy there are no figures breaking down legal and illegal migration. There is another very important warning as far as internal migration is concerned. Very few countries, if any, collect and publish data specifically on internal migration. And whilst there is a section in this document on what we have termed Urbanization and Internal Migration it is very important to realize that this data is very much an estimate based on statistics relating to urbanization. Whilst few countries collect and publish data on internal migration, there are often data that are available on urbanization and urban growth. Given that much of this urban growth is a direct result of rural to urban internal migration, it seemed important and relevant to include this information within the document. Finally, data relating to remittances must be understood only to be the remittances sent through official remittance channels meaning that the actual figure for all remittance data is likely to be higher. In a similar vein to issues with tracking information related to illegal migration, remittances sent through unofficial channels are either untraceable or at least very hard enough to trace that data that is generated is likely to be unreliable and not consistent across countries. For these reasons, the data has been omitted from this document. 1.4 Definitions Migrant: The term migrant in this document is being used as broadly possible in keeping with the definition offered by the International Organization for Migration (IOM). According to the IOM a migrant is a person who is moving or has moved across an international border or within a State. A person is classified as a migrant regardless of (1) their legal status, (2) whether that movement is voluntary or involuntary, (3) what the causes of the migration are, or (4) what the length of stay is. 5

8 Diaspora: In this document, the term diaspora is used to refer to the population of one state that live in other states. Importantly, this term is not being used here to refer to populations with a mere ancestral or heritage connection to another state. Diaspora is akin to the common meaning of the term expats in this case but neutral as to whether the person is high or low skilled. Forced Migrant: This analytical framework will use the term forced migrant when discussing issues of forced migration and displacement. This is a catch all term used to encompass a variety of different legal statuses and includes refugees, internally displaced persons (IDPs), stateless persons, asylum seekers, and returnees and maps on to the UNHCR term person of concern. Refugee: According to UNHCR a refugee is a person forced to flee their country on account of persecution, war, or violence. Their fear of persecution must be well founded for reasons of race, religion, nationality, political opinion, or membership in a particular social group. IDP: An IDP is someone who has been forced to flee their home for the same reason as a refugee but has not crossed an international border. IDPs are not granted the same kind of protections under international law as refugees. Stateless Person: Stateless persons are those who are noncitizens of any country whereby citizenship is the legal bond between a government and an individual. Asylum Seeker: An asylum seeker is someone who has fled their own country and is in the process of applying for asylum and the right to be recognized as a refugee in another country. This document does not differentiate between the different categories of persons of concern for various reasons. Chiefly, however, is that the causes of forced migration are broadly similar and are generally rooted in conflict, violence, and state persecution. Second, however, is that refugee is a term of art and is often used in popular discourse to refer to forced migrants generally (including asylum seekers). Remittances: Remittances, in this document, are understood to be monies earned or acquired by non nationals that are transferred back to their countries of origin in keeping with the IOM s definition. 6

9 1.5 Migration A Global Snapshot Figure 1.2.1: International Migrants Globally, from EMS Countries, & Residing in EMS Countries, Global Migrant Stock Millions Number of Migrants Globally Number of Migrants in Emerging Markets Number of Migrants from Emerging Markets Source [1] Figure 1.2.2: Number of people of concern globally, Forced Migration Millions Source [2] 7

10 Figure 1.2.3: Value of Global Remittance Flows, Billions $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 Global Value of Remittance Inflows (USD) $ Source [3] Global Remittance Value 8

11 2. EMS Countries as Hosting Countries of Migrants 2.1 Migrant Populations by Group Figure 2.1.1: Migrant Populations by Group, Migrant Populations in Latin America 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru 3,5, 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, Migrant Populations in the Middle East & North Africa Egypt Jordan Tunisia Turkey Migrant Populations in South & East Asia Migrant Populations in Other EMS Countries 8,, 6,, 4,, 2,, China India Indonesia Malaysia Pakistan Philippines Thailand 14,, 12,, 1,, 8,, 6,, 4,, 2,, Poland Russia South Africa Migrant Population in High Income Countries Migrant Population in High Income Countries (excluding USA) 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, ,, 8,, 7,, 6,, 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, Australia Japan Switzerland UK USA Australia Japan Switzerland UK 9

12 Migrant Population in Low Income Countries 1,5, 1,, 5, Bangladesh Cambodia Ethiopia Source [1] Haiti Nigeria 2.2 Country Data: Migrant Populations & Significant Migrant Groups Figure 2.2.1: Migrant Population by Country & Significant Migrant Groups, Migrant Population in Argentina Significant Migrant Groups in Argentina 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, 1,649,919 2,86,32 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, % Paraguay Bolivia Chile Peru Italy Spain Other Migrant Population (left axis) % of total (right axis)

13 Migrant Population in Brazil Significant Migrant Groups in Brazil 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 798, , %.5%.4%.3%.2%.1%.% 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Migrant Population (left axis) % of total (right axis) Migrant Population in Chile Significant Migrant Groups in Chile 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 17,51 469, % 2.5% 2.% 1.5% 1.%.5%.% 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Migrant Population (left axis) % of total (right axis) Migrant Population in China Significant Migrant Groups in China 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 884,76 1,181,953.12%.1%.8%.6%.4% 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 2,.2% 1, % Philippines ROK Indonesia Brazil Other Migrant Population (left axis) % of total (right axis)

14 Migrant Population in Colombia Significant Migrant Groups in Colombia 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 133,134 14, %.3%.25%.2%.15%.1%.5%.% 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Venezuela USA Ecuador Spain Other Migrant Population (left axis) % of total (right axis) Migrant Population in Egypt Significant Migrant Groups in Egypt 6, 5, 4, 491,643.6%.5%.4% 16, 14, 12, 1, 3,.3% 8, 2, 1, 173,78.2%.1% 6, 4, 2, % Palestine Syria Sudan Somalia Germany Russia Other Migrant Population (left axis) % of total (right axis) ,, 7,493,24 7,, 6,, 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, Migrant Population in India 5,24, %.9%.8%.7%.6%.5%.4%.3%.2%.1%.% 5,, 4,5, 4,, 3,5, 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, Significant Migrant Groups in India Bangladesh Pakistan Nepal Other Migrant Population (left axis) % of total (right axis)

15 Migrant Population in Indonesia Significant Migrant Groups in Indonesia 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 465, , %.25%.2%.15%.1%.5%.% 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Migrant Population (left axis) % of total (right axis) Migrant Population in Jordan Significant Migrant Groups in Jordan 3,5, 3,112,26 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,146,349 1,, 5, % 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, Palestine Syria Egypt Other Migrant Population (left axis) % of total (right axis) Migrant Population in Malaysia Significant Migrant Groups in Malaysia 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, 2,514, , % 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Migrant Population (left axis) % of total (right axis)

16 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Migrant Population in Mexico 695,674 1,193, %.9%.8%.7%.6%.5%.4%.3%.2%.1%.% 1,, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Significant Migrant Groups in Mexico USA El Salvador Guatemala Other Migrant Population (left axis) % of total (right axis) Migrant Population in Pakistan Significant Migrant Groups in Pakistan 7,, 6,28,24 6,, 7% 6% 3,5, 3,, 5,, 4,, 3,628,956 5% 4% 2,5, 2,, 3,, 3% 1,5, 2,, 2% 1,, 1,, 1% 5, % India Afghanistan Other Migrant Population (left axis) % of total (right axis) Migrant Population in Peru Significant Migrant Groups in Peru 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 65,25 9, %.3%.25%.2%.15%.1%.5%.% 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Migrant Population (left axis) % of total (right axis)

17 Migrant Population in Philippines Significant Migrant Groups in Philippines 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 211, , %.4%.4%.3%.3%.2%.2%.1%.1%.% 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Migrant Population (left axis) % of total (right axis) Migrant Population in Poland Significant Migrant Groups in Poland 1,2, 1,127,771 1,, 8, 619,43 6, 4, 2, % 3.% 2.5% 2.% 1.5% 1.%.5%.% 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Ukraine Germany Belarus Lithuania Russia UK Other Migrant Population (left axis) % of total (right axis) Migrant Population in Russia Significant Migrant Groups in Russia 16,, 9.% 14,, 8.% 11,524,948 12,, 11,643,276 7.% 1,, 6.% 8,, 5.% 4.% 6,, 3.% 4,, 2.% 2,, 1.%.% ,5, 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, Migrant Population (left axis) % of total (right axis)

18 Migrant Population in South Africa 3,5, 3,142,511 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,163,883 1,, 5, % 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, Significant Migrant Groups in South Africa Migrant Population (left axis) % of total (right axis) Migrant Population in Thailand Significant Migrant Groups in Thailand 4,5, 4,, 3,5, 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, 3,913, , % 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, Myanmar Laos Cambodia Other Migrant Population (left axis) % of total (right axis) Migrant Population in Tunisia Significant Migrant Groups in Tunisia 6, 56,71.6% 25, 5, 4, 3, 2, 37,984.5%.4%.3%.2% 2, 15, 1, 1,.1% 5, % Algeria Libya France Morocco Other Migrant Population (left axis) % of total (right axis)

19 Migrant Population in Turkey 2,964,916 3,5, 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,163,686 1,, 5, % 3.5% 3.% 2.5% 2.% 1.5% 1.%.5%.% 1,8, 1,6, 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Significant Migrant Groups in Turkey Source [1] Migrant Population (left axis) % of total (right axis)

20 3. Emigration and Diaspora Populations from the EMS Countries 3.1 Diasporas from EMS Countries by Group Figure 3.1.1: Diaspora Population by Group, ,, 12,, 1,, 8,, 6,, 4,, 2,, Diasporas from Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, Diasporas from Latin America (excluding Mexico) Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Peru 3,5, 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, Diasporas from the Middle East & North Africa Egypt Jordan Tunisia Turkey Diasporas from South & East Asia 2,, 15,, 1,, 5,, China India Indonesia Malaysia Pakistan Philippines Thailand Diasporas from Other EMS Countries Diasporas from High Income Countries 14,, 6,, 12,, 1,, 8,, 6,, 4,, 2,, 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, Poland Russia South Africa Australia Japan Switzerland UK USA 18

21 Diasporas from Low Income Countries 8,, 7,, 6,, 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, Bangladesh Cambodia Ethiopia Haiti Nigeria 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, Diasporas from Low Income Countries (excluding Bangladesh) Cambodia Ethiopia Haiti Nigeria Source [1] Figure 3.1.2: Net Migrant Population by Group, Latin America Net Migrant Population 2,, 2,, ,, 6,, 8,, 1,, 12,, 14,, Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru 3,, 2,, 1,, 1,, 2,, 3,, Middle East & North Africa Net Migrant Population Egypt Jordan Tunisia Turkey South & East Asia Net Migrant Population Other EMS Countries' Net Migrant Population 5,, ,, 1,, 15,, China India Indonesia Malaysia Pakistan Philippines Thailand 3,, 2,, 1,, 1,, 2,, 3,, 4,, 5,, Poland Russia South Africa 19

22 High Income Countries Net Migrant Population Low Income Countries Net Migrant Population 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, Australia Japan Switzerland UK USA Source [1] 1,, 1,, 2,, 3,, 4,, 5,, 6,, 7,, Bangladesh Cambodia Ethiopia Haiti Nigeria 3.2 Country Data: Diaspora Population & Diaspora Locations Figure 3.2.1: Diaspora Population & Location of Foreign Diaspora ,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, Argentina Argentine Diaspora Abroad Foreign Population in Argentina Net 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Top Countries of Argentinian Diaspora 215 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, 5, 1,, 1,5, Brazil , 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Top Countries of Brazilian Diaspora 215 Foreign Population in Brazil Brazilian Diaspora Net 2

23 Chile Top Countries of Chilean Diaspora 215 8, 6, 4, 2, 2, 4, 6, Foreign Population in Chile Chilean Diaspora Net 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, China Top Countries of Chinese Diaspora 215 1,, 8,, 6,, 4,, 2,, 2,, 4,, 6,, 8,, ,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, Foreign Population in China Chinese Diaspora Net 3,, 2,, 1,, 1,, 2,, 3,, Colombia Foreign Population in Colombia Colombian Diaspora Net 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Top Countries of Colombian Diaspora 215 Venezuela USA Spain Ecuador Other 21

24 Egypt 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, 1,, ,, 3,, 4,, Foreign Population in Egypt Egyptian Diaspora Net 1,, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Top Countries of Egyptian Diaspora 215 UAE Saudi Arabia Kuwait Qatar USA Other India Top Countries of Egyptian Diaspora 2,, 15,, 1,, 5,, 5,, 1,, 15,, ,, 3,5, 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, Foreign Population in India Indian Diaspora Net 6,, 4,, 2,, 2,, 4,, Indonesia Foreign Population in Indonesia Indonesian Diaspora Net 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Top Countries of Indonesian Diaspora 215 Saudi Arabia Laos UAE Other 22

25 Jordan 3,5, 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, Foreign Population in Jordan Jordanian Diaspora Net 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Top Countries of Jordanian Diaspora 215 Saudi Arabia UAE USA Palestine Kuwait Qatar Other 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, Malaysia Foreign Population in Malaysia Malaysian Diaspora Net 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Top Countries of Malaysian Diaspora 215 Singapore Bangladesh Australia Other 15,, 1,, 5,, Mexico 14,, 12,, 1,, Top Countries of Mexican Diaspora 5,, ,, 6,, 1,, 4,, 15,, 2,, Foreign Population in Mexico Mexican Diaspora Net USA Other 23

26 8,, 6,, 4,, 2,, 2,, 4,, Pakistan Foreign Population in Pakistan Pakistani Diaspora Net 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Top Countries of Pakistani Diaspora 215 2,, Peru Top Countries of Peruvian Diaspora 215 1,5, 1,, 5, , 1,, 1,5, Foreign Population in Peru Peruvian Diaspora Net 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, USA Argentina Spain Chile Italy Other Philippines Top Countries of Filipino Diaspora 215 6,, 2,, 4,, 2,, 2,, 4,, ,8, 1,6, 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6,, 6, Foreign Population in Philippines 4, 2, Filipino Diaspora Net USA UAE Canada Saudi Arabia Other 24

27 Poland Top Coutries of Polish Diaspora 215 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, 1,, ,, 3,, 4,, 5,, Foreign Population in Poland Polish Diaspora Net 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, Germany UK USA Other 14,, 12,, 1,, 8,, 6,, 4,, 2,, 2,, Russia ,5, 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, Top Countries of Russian Diaspora 215 Foreign Population in Russia Russian Diaspora Net 3,5, 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, South Africa Foreign Population in South Africa 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Top Countries of South African Diaspora 215 South African Diaspora Net UK Australia USA New Zealand Canada Other 25

28 Thailand Top Countries of Thai Diaspora 215 4,5, 4,, 3,5, 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, , 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Foreign Population in Thailland Thai Diaspora Net Tunisia Top Countries of Tunisian Diaspora 215 8, 6, 4, 2, 2, , 6, 8, Foreign Population in Tunisia Tunisian Diaspora Net 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, France Italy Germany Other Turkey Top Countries of Turkish Diaspora 215 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, 1,, 2,, ,8, 1,6, 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Germany France Netherlands Austria Other Foreign Population in Turkey Turkish Diaspora Net Germany France Netherlands Austria Other 26

29 4. Forced Migration 4.1 Forced Migrant Populations in the EMS Countries by Group Figure 4.1.1: Forced Migration Population by Group, Forced Migration in Latin America 8,, 7,, 6,, 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Forced Migration in Latin America (excluding Colombia) Argentina Brazil Chile Mexico Peru 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, Forced Migration in the Middle East & North Africa Egypt Jordan Tunisia Turkey Forced Migration in South/East Asia 4,, 3,5, 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, China India Indonesia Malaysia Pakistan Philippines Thailand 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Forced Migration in South/East Asia (excluding Pakistan) China India Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Forced Migration in Other Countries Poland Russia South Africa 27

30 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Source [2] Forced Migrants in High Income Countries Australia Japan Switzerland UK USA 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, Forced Migration in Low Income Countries Bangladesh Cambodia Ethiopia Haiti Nigeria Figure 4.1.2: EMS Countries by Forced Migrant Populations 215 Forced Migrant Population Millions Tunisia Peru Chile Argentina Mexico Indonesia Poland Brazil India Malaysia Egypt China Philippines Russia Thailand Jordan South Africa Turkey Pakistan Colombia Source [2] 28

31 Figure 4.1.3: EMS Countries by Forced Migrant Population Change Forced Migrant Population 1995 & Tunisia Peru Chile Argentina Mexico Indonesia Poland Brazil India Malaysia Egypt China Philippines Russia Thailand Jordan Millions South Africa Turkey Pakistan Colombia Source [2] 4.2 Forced Migrant Populations from EMS Countries Figure 4.2.1: Forced Migrant Populations from Select EMS Countries Location of Forced Migrants from China 215 Location of Forced Migrants from Colombia , 8,, 12, 7,, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 6,, 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, USA India Canada Other Colombia Other 1 Significant, in this case, includes only states with forced migrant populations of over 1, people. 29

32 Location of Forced Migrants from India 215 Location of Forced Migrants from Egypt , 16, 14, 14, 12, 12, 1, 1, 8, 8, 6, 6, 4, 4, 2, 2, USA South Africa Canada Germany Other USA Germany Italy Australia Other Location of Forced Migrants from Mexico 215 Location of Forced Migrants from Pakistan 215 6, 2,, 5, 1,8, 1,6, 4, 1,4, 1,2, 3, 1,, 2, 8, 6, 1, 4, 2, USA Canada Other Pakistan Afghanistan Other 3

33 Location of Forced Migrants from Philippines 215 Location of Forced Migrants from Russia , 3, 25, 2, 18, 16, 14, 2, 15, 1, 5, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Philippines Malaysia Other Austria Germany France Poland USA Other Location of Forced Migrants from Turkey 215 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Source [2] Germany Iraq France Switzerland Other 31

34 5. Remittances 5.1 Remittances Flows by Group Figure 5.1.1: Net Remittance Flows by Group, Net Remittance Flows for Latin America (millions USD) Net Remittance Flows for Middle East & North Africa (millions USD) $3, $25, $2, $15, $1, $5, $ $5, Argentina Brazil Chile $2, $15, $1, $5, $ Colombia Mexico Peru Egypt Jordan Tunisia Turkey Net Remittance Flows for Latin America (millions USD) Net Remittance Flows for Middle East & North Africa (millions USD) $3, $25, $2, $15, $1, $5, $ $5, Argentina Brazil Chile $2, $15, $1, $5, $ Colombia Mexico Peru Egypt Jordan Tunisia Turkey Net Remittance Flows for High Income Countries (millions USD) Net Remittance Flows for Low Income Countries (millions USD) $1, $ $1, $2, $3, $4, $5, $6, Australia Japan Switzerland UK USA Source [3] $25, $2, $15, $1, $5, $ $5, Bangladesh Cambodia Ethiopia Haiti Nigeria 32

35 Figure 5.1.2: EMS Countries by Remittance Inflows as Share of GDP, % 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 2% Remittance Flows by Share of GDP Source [3] 5.2 Net Remittance Flows by Country & Main Sources of Remittance Inflows Figure 5.2.1: Net Remittance Flows in USD & Main Remittance Inflow Sources $2 Net Remittance Flows to Argentina.15% Main Remittance Inflows to Argentina 215 (millions USD) $1 $ $1 $2 $3 $ %.5%.%.5%.1% $5.15% 2 Net Remittance Flows (millions USD) % GDP (right axis) Spain USA Italy Paraguay Chile Others 2 World Bank Data does not include outflows for Mexico, Peru, Thailand, and Turkey and so instead of showing net remittance flows and corresponding percentage of GDP, these charts show only remittance inflows and the corresponding percentage of national GDP. 33

36 $3,5 Net Remmitance Flows to Brazil.45% Main Remittance Inflows to Brazil 215 (millions USD) $3, $2,5 $2, $1,5 $1, $5.4%.35%.3%.25%.2%.15%.1%.5% 1,2 1, $ % 2 Net Remittance Flows (millions USD) % GDP (right axis) USA Japan Portugal Spain China Others $ $2 Net Remittance Flows to Chile %.2% 6 Main Remittance Inflows to Chile 215 (millions USD) $4 $6 $8 $1 $12.4%.6%.8%.1% $14.12% 1 Net Remittance Flows (millions USD) % GDP (right axis) Argentina USA Spain Others $6, Net Remittance Flows to China 1.5% Main Remittance Inflows to China 215 (millions USD) $5, $4, 1.% $3,.5% $2, $1,.% $ $1, % Net Remittance Flows (millions USD) % GDP (right axis) 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, USA Japan ROK Australia Others 34

37 $5, Net Remittance Flows to Colombia 2.5% Main Remittance Inflows to Colombia 215 (millions USD) $4, 2.% 1,6 1,4 $3, 1.5% 1,2 $2, 1.% 1, 8 $1,.5% 6 $ % 4 2 Net Remittance Flows (millions USD) % GDP (right axis) USA Venezuela Spain Ecuador Others $2, Net Remittance Flows to Egypt 12% Main Remittance Inflows to Egypt 215 (millions USD) $15, 1% 8% 8, 7, 6, $1, 6% 5, $5, 4% 2% 4, 3, 2, $ % Net Remittance Flows (millions USD) % GDP (right axis) 1, Saudi Arabia Kuwait UAE Jordan Qatar USA Others $7, Net Remittance Flows to India 3.5% Main Remittance Inflows to India 215 (millions USD) $6, $5, $4, $3, $2, $1, $ 3.% 2.5% 2.% 1.5% 1.%.5%.% Net Remittance Flows (millions USD) % GDP (right axis) 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, UAE USA Saudi Kuwait Qatar UK Oman Others Arabia 35

38 $6, $5, $4, $3, $2, $1, $ Net Remittance Flows to Indonesia % 1.4% 1.2% 1.%.8%.6%.4%.2%.% 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Main Remittance Inflows to Indonesia 215 (millions USD) Net Remittance Flows (millions USD) % GDP (right axis) Saudi Arabia Malaysia UAE Others $5, Net Remittance Flows to Jordan 25% Main Remittance Inflows to Jordan 215 (millions USD) $4, 2% 2,5 $3, 15% 2, $2, 1% 1,5 $1, 5% 1, $ % 5 Net Remittance Flows (millions USD) % GDP (right axis) Saudi Arabia UAE USA Others $ $1, Net Remittance Flows to Malaysia %.5% 1,2 Main Remittance Inflows to Malaysia 215 (millions USD) $2, $3, $4, $5, $6, 1.% 1.5% 2.% 2.5% 3.% 3.5% 1, Net Remittance Flows (millions USD) % GDP (right axis) Singapore Bangladesh Australia singapore 36

39 $3, Remittance Inflows to Mexico 3.% Main Remittance Inflows to Mexico 215 (millions USD) $25, 2.5% 3, $2, 2.% 25, $15, 1.5% 2, $1, 1.% 15, $5,.5% 1, $ % 5, Remittance Inflows (millions USD) % GDP (right axis) USA Others $25, $2, $15, $1, $5, $ Net Remittance Flows to Pakistan 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Net Remittance Flows (millions USD) % GDP (right axis) 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Main Remittance Inflows to Pakistan 215 (millions USD) Saudi Arabia UAE UK USA Kuwait Others $3, Remittance Inflows to Peru 2.% Main Remittance Inflows to Peru 215 (millions USD) $2,5 $2, $1,5 $1, $5 $ 1.5% 1.%.5%.% Remittance Inflows (millions USD) % GDP (right axis) 1, USA Argentina Spain Chile Italy Others 37

40 $3, Net Remittance Flows to Philippines 14% Main Remittance Inflows to Philippines 215 (millions USD) $25, 12% 12, $2, $15, $1, $5, $ 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Net Remittance Flows (millions USD) % GDP (right axis) 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, USA UAE Saudi Arabia Canada Malaysia Others $7, $6, $5, $4, $3, $2, $1, $ Net Remittance Flows to Poland 2.% 1.5% 1.%.5%.% Net Remittance Flows (millions USD) % GDP (right axis) 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Main Remittance Inflows to Poland 215 (millions USD) Germany UK USA Canada Others $2, $ $2, $4, $6, $8, $1, $12, $14, $16, $18, Net Remittance Flows to Russia %.%.2%.4%.6%.8% 1.% 1.2% 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Main Remittance Inflows to Russia 215 (millions USD) Net Remittance Flows (millions USD) % GDP (right axis) 38

41 Net Remittance Flows to South Africa $ $2.%.2% 25 Main Remittance Inflows to South Africa 215 (millions USD) $4.4% 2 $6.6% 15 $8.8% 1 $1, 1.% 5 $1,2 Net Remittance Flows (millions USD) % GDP (right axis) 1.2% UK Australia USA New Zealand Canada Others $7, Remittance Inflows to Thailand 1.4% Main Remittance Inflows to Thailand 215 (millions USD) $6, 1.2% 3,5 $5, 1.% 3, $4, $3, $2, $1, $ %.6%.4%.2%.% 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Remittance Inflows (millions USD) % GDP (right axis) USA Germany Malaysia Australia Others $2,5 $2, $1,5 $1, $5 $ Net Remittance Flows to Tunisia 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.%.% Net Remittance Flows (millions USD) % GDP (right axis) 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Main Remittance Inflows to Tunisia 215 (millions USD) France Italy Germany Others 39

42 Source [3] Remittance Inflows to Turkey $5, 2.5% $4, 2.% $3, 1.5% $2, 1.% $1,.5% $.% Remittance Inflows (millions USD) % GDP (right axis) 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Main Remittance Inflows to Turkey 215 (millions USD) France Italy Germany Others 4

43 6. Urbanization and Internal Migration 6.1 Share of Urban Population by Group Figure 6.1.1: Urbanization Levels by Group Urban Share of Population in Latin America Urban Share of Population in South/East Asia 1% 8% 8% 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% % % Argentina Brazil Chile China India Indonesia Malaysia Colombia Mexico Peru Pakistan Philippines Thailand Urban Share of Population in the Middle East & North Africa Urban Share of Population in Other EMS Countries 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% % % Egypt Jordan Tunisia Turkey Poland Russia South Africa Urban Share of Population in High Income Countries Urban Share of Population in Low Income Countries 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % % 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Bangladesh Cambodia Ethiopia Source [4] Australia Japan Switzerland UK USA Haiti Nigeria 41

44 Figure 6.1.2: EMS Countries by % Urban in 199 & 215 % Urban 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % India LIC Aggregate Pakistan Egypt Philippines Thailand Indonesia China Poland South Africa Tunisia Jordan Turkey Russia Malaysia Peru Colombia Mexico HIC Aggregate Brazil Argentina Chile % Urban 199 % Urban 215 Source [4] 6.2 Urban Population Growth by Country Figure 6.2.1: Urban Population Growth as Share of Total by Country, Millions Urban Population in Argentina Millions Urban Population in Brazil Total Population Urban Population Total Population Urban Population 42

45 Millions Urban Population in Chile Millions Urban Population in China 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Total Population Urban Population Total Population Urban Population Millions Urban Population in Colombia Millions Urban Population in Egypt Total Population Urban Population Total Population Urban Population Millions Urban Population in India 1,4 1,2 1, Millions Urban Population in Indonesia Total Population Urban Population Total Population Urban Population 43

46 Millions Urban Population in Jordan Millions Urban Population Growth in Malaysia Total Population Urban Population Total Population Urban Population Millions Urban Population Growth in Mexico Millions Urban Population Growth in Pakistan Total Population Urban Population Total Population Urban Population Millions Urban Population Growth in Peru Millions Urban Population Growth in Philippines Total Population Urban Population Total Population Urban Population 44

47 Millions Urban Population Growth in Poland Millions Urban Population Growth in Russia Total Population Urban Population Total Population Urban Population Millions Urban Population Growth in Thailand Millions Urban Population Growth in South Africa Total Population Urban Population Total Population Urban Population Millions Urban Population Growth in Tunisia Millions Urban Population Growth in Turkey Total Population Urban Population Total Population Urban Population Source [4] 45

48 7. Population and Demographics 7.1 Population Figure 7.1.1: Total Population by Group, Source [5] Figure 7.1.2: Population Growth (annual %) change between Source [5] 46

49 Figure 7.1.3: Birth Rate by Group, Source [5] Figure 7.1.4: Death Rate by Group, Source [5] 47

50 7.2 Living Conditions Figure 7.2.1: Population Density Change Source [6] Figure 7.2.2: Urban Population Living in Slums (% Urban Population)

51 Source [7] Figure 7.2.3: Poverty at $1.9 a day (211 PPP) (% of Population), & Source [8] Figure 7.2.4: % of Total Population (21) Living in Areas below 5m Elevation Source [9] 49

52 Figure 7.2.5: Population Density Change, Source [1] 5

53 7.3 Demographics Figure 7.3.1: Population Pyramids, (projection) 51

54 52

55 53

56 Source [11] 54

57 8. Economy 8.1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and National Expenditure Indicators Figure 8.1.1: Total GDP (constant 21 US$ billion) Figure 8.1.2: Total GDP (current US$, billion),

58 Figure 8.1.3: GDP Growth (annual %), Figure 8.1.4: GDP per Capita (Constant 21 US$),

59 Figure 8.1.5: GDP per Capita, Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) (Constant 211 US$), Figure 8.1.6: GDP per capita growth (annual %) 57

60 Figure 8.1.7: Total GDP, PPP (current international $, billion), Figure 8.1.8: Total GDP (constant 211 international $, billion)

61 Figure 8.1.9: Gross National Expenditure (% of GDP), Figure 8.1.1: Inflation, GDP deflator (annual %),

62 Figure : Tax Revenue (% of GDP), Figure : Trade (% of GDP), Source (for all of Section 8) [12] 6

63 Table of Figures Figure 1.1.1: Map of Countries...4 Table 1.1.1: List of Countries...4 Figure 1.2.1: International Migrants Globally, from EMS Countries, & Residing in EMS Countries, Figure 1.2.2: Number of people of concern globally, Figure 1.2.3: Value of Global Remittance Flows, Figure 2.1.1: Migrant Populations by Group, Figure 2.2.1: Migrant Population by Country & Significant Migrant Groups, Figure 3.1.1: Diaspora Population by Group, Figure 3.1.2: Net Migrant Population by Group, Figure 3.2.1: Diaspora Population & Location of Foreign Diaspora, Figure 4.1.1: Forced Migration Population by Group, Figure 4.1.2: EMS Countries by Forced Migrant Populations Figure 4.1.3: EMS Countries by Forced Migrant Population Change Figure 4.2.1: Forced Migrant Populations from Select EMS Countries, Figure 5.1.1: Net Remittance Flows by Group, Figure 5.1.2: EMS Countries by Remittance Inflows as Share of GDP, Figure 5.2.1: Net Remittance Flows in USD & Main Remittance Inflow Sources, Figure 6.1.1: Urbanization Levels by Group, Figure 6.1.2: EMS Countries by % Urban in 199 & Figure 6.2.1: Urban Population Growth as Share of Total by Country, Figure 7.1.1: Total Population by Group, Figure 7.1.2: Population Growth (annual %) change between Figure 7.1.3: Birth Rate by Group, Figure 7.1.4: Death Rate by Group, Figure 7.2.1: Population Density Change Figure 7.2.2: Urban Population Living in Slums (% Urban Population) Figure 7.2.3: Poverty at $1.9 a day (211 PPP) (% of Population), &

64 Figure 7.2.4: % of Total Population (21) Living in Areas below 5m Elevation...49 Figure 7.2.5: Population Density Change, Figure 7.3.1: Population Pyramids, (projection)...51 Figure 8.1.1: Total GDP (constant 21 US$ billion) Figure 8.1.2: Total GDP (current US$, billion), Figure 8.1.3: GDP Growth (annual %), Figure 8.1.4: GDP per Capita (Constant 21 US$), Figure 8.1.5: GDP per Capita, Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) (Constant 211 US$), Figure 8.1.6: GDP per capita growth (annual %), Figure 8.1.7: Total GDP, PPP (current international $, billion), Figure 8.1.8: Total GDP (constant 211 international $, billion) Figure 8.1.9: Gross National Expenditure (% of GDP), Figure 8.1.1: Inflation, GDP deflator (annual %), Figure : Tax Revenue (% of GDP), Figure : Trade (% of GDP),

65 References 1. United Nations Population Division, International Migration Data, Total International Migrant Stock, mates15.shtml. 2. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees Population Statistics, Persons of Concern, 3. World Bank, Migration and Remittances Data, Annual Remittances Data, on remittances data. 4. United Nations Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects, ROM/. 5. The World Bank (216): World Development Indicators. Data Source: Derived from male and female life expectancy at birth from sources such as: (1) United Nations Population Division. World Population Prospects, (2) Census reports and other statistical publications from national statistical offices, (3) Eurostat: Demographic Statistics, (4) United Nations Statistical Division. Population and Vital Statistics Report (various years), (5) U.S. Census Bureau: International Database, and (6) Secretariat of the Pacific Community: Statistics and Demography Program. 6. The World Bank (216): World Development Indicators. Data Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects. 7. The World Bank (216): World Development Indicators. Data Source: UN HABITAT, retrieved from United Nations Millennium Development Goals Database. Available at mdgs.un.org. 8. The World Bank (216): World Development Indicators. Data Source: World Bank, Development Research Group Data are based on primary household survey data obtained from government statistical agencies and World Bank country departments. 9. The World Bank (216): World Development Indicators. Data Source: Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN)/Columbia University 213. Urban Rural Population and Land Area Estimates Version 2. Palisades, NY: NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/set/lecz urban rural population land area estimatesv2. 1. The World Bank (216): World Development Indicators. Data Source: Food and Agriculture Organization and World Bank Population Estimates. 11. United Nations Population Division: World Population Prospects, The World Bank (216): World Development Indicators. Data Source: World Bank National Accounts Data, and OECD National Accounts Data Files. 63

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68 For more information about the Emerging Markets Symposium see: ems.gtc.ox.ac.uk For more information about Green Templeton College see: