How Distance Matters: Comparing the Causes and Consequence of Emigration from Mexico and Peru

Transcription

1 How Distance Matters: Comparing the Causes and Consequence of Emigration from Mexico and Peru Ayumi Takenaka & Karen A. Pren May 2008

2 Latino migrants are heterogeneous

3 Latino migrants are heterogeneous

4 Latino migrants are heterogeneous Educational Attainment of Migrants born in Latin America 100% 80% 60% 40% Higher degree BA degree Some college High School Less than 12th grade 20% 0% Peru Mexico Dom. Rep. Costa Rica Colombia Ecuador Argentina US Census 2000

5 Latino migrants are heterogeneous Language Spoken at Home English only 40.0 Speak English less than very well Peru Mexico Dom. Rep. Costa Rica Colombia Edua ador Argentina US Census 2000

6 Latino migrants are heterogeneous Occupation 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Production, Transportation Construction, Maintenance Farming Sales and office Service Management, professional Per eru Mexico Dom. Rep. Costa Rica Colombi bia Ecuador Argentin ina US Census 2000

7 Latino migrants are heterogeneous Median Family Income Peru US Census 2000 Mexico Dom. Rep. Costa Rica Colombia Eduador Argentina

8 LAMP - Peruvian migrants are highly educated, esp. compared to Mexicans Mean Years of Education: Migrants, Non-Migrants and Ratio Between the Two (All: people aged 6 years or older) Migrants Non-Migrants Ratio Mea an Years of Educa ation igrants Ratio Migrants to Non-M Mexico Nicaragua Dominican Republic Costa Rica Peru 0.0

9 More Peruvian migrants engage in professional work 100% 80% Occupational Distribution of Migrants & Non-Migrants (for employed people aged 12 and older) MEXICO NICARAGUA DOMINICAN REP. COSTA RICA PERU % % % 0% Migrants Non-Migrants Migrants Non-Migrants Migrants Non-Migrants Migrants Non-Migrants Migrants Non-Migrants Unskilled Services Skilled Professional

10 Why Peruvian migrants are more educated than Mexican migrants? Possible Reasons: Distance -- barriers to, and costs of, migration (requires more human capital) Urban origin of migrants (they tend to be more educated; rely less on social networks) More recent migration -- absence of explicit labor recruitment programs, except for sheep herders (absence of networks; higher levels of education in general)

11 Why Peruvian migrants are more educated than Mexican migrants? Implications: In general. Human capital matters when barriers to migration are high (greater distance) Human capital matters in the absence of social capital (urban migration, recent migration) (Human capital is inversely related to social capital.) As social capital expands (migration becomes more prevalent), human capital should matter less over time.

12 Research Questions Who emigrates from Peru in comparison to Mexico and under what circumstances? How does human capital matter in migration in relation to other types of capital (financial, physical, social)? How does distance matter in explaining selectivity of p g y migrants?

13 Data LAMP-Peru MMP -When: Where: 5 communities -12 urban communities & in Lima more recent regions of emigration (4 in Ciudad Juarez, 4 historic communities, and 4 from Central Mexico) -Who: total sample of 295 migrants 1,301 migrants 4,134 non-migrants 11,477 non-migrants

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15 16 Figure 1. Mean Year of Education: Migrants & Non-Migrants (All Persons aged 6+) Migrants Non Mexico Peru

16 Figure 2: Occupational Distribution of Migrants & Non- Migrants (Employed people aged 12+) 100% 90% % Profession al % % Skilled % % Services % % 10% 0% Unskilled Migrants Non-migrants Migrants Non-migrants Mexico Peru

17 Analyzing the Determinants of Emigration (likelihood of taking a first trip abroad) PERU MEXICO Independent Variables B SE B SE Demographic Age Characteristics Married * 0.14 Human Capital Education 0.12*** Occupation ** 0.15 in Services Skilled * 0.14 Professional * 0.24 Social Capital Spouse 1.67** ** 0.26 Migrant Extended 0.04** *** 0.01 Family Migrant Physical Property in Capital Home Country Business in ** 0.22 Home Country Intercept *p <.10 **p <.05 ***p <.01 ****p <.001

18 Analyzing the Determinants of Emigration Over Time PERU MEXICO Pre-1990 Post-1990 Pre-1990 Post-1990 Demographic Age Age -Age -Age Characteristics Married Married Married Married Human Education Education Education Education Capital Occupation Occupation Occupation -Occupation in Services in Services in Services in Services Skilled Skilled -Skilled Skilled Professional Professional Professional Professional Social Capital Spouse Spouse Spouse Spouse Migrant Migrant Migrant Migrant Extended Family Migrant Extended Family Migrant Extended Family Migrant Extended Family Migrant Physical Property in Property in Property in Property in Capital Home Country Home Country Home Country Home Country Business in Home Business in Home Business in Home Business in Home Intercept Statistically significant at p <.05 Country Country Country Country

19 It is not just distance matters: Peruvian Migrants across countries are more educated than non-migrants Peruvian Migrants' Mean Years of Education S America N America Europe Asia Destination

20 Structural problems in the home country also matter in explaining migrants selectivity. Mexico Peru GDP Per Capita $10,751 $6,039 Poverty Rate 18% 53% GINI School Enrollment Ratio Primary 98% 96% Secondary 65% 70% Tertiary 20% 29%

21 Stronger push factor from Peru? Peruvians are geographically g dispersed 25 Oceania 1% Asia 20 7% Europe 13% South America 34% 5 0 North America 35% MX & Central America 10% United States Costa Rica Guatemalaa Panama a Dominican Republic Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Ecuador Paraguay Venezuela Belgium France Italy Spain Switzerland Japan Australiaa

22 Summary and Conclusions Research Question In comparison to Mexico, who emigrates from Peru and under what circumstances? Some Preliminary Findings Social capital is a stronger explanatory factor of emigration from Mexico, but it also matters in Peru and becomes more salient over time (as migration becomes more prevalent). Human capital matters in emigration from Peru, especially at the beginning, but not from Mexico (even from urban communities) - migration is positively selected from Peru and negatively selected from Mexico. Distance increases the salience of human capital, but social capital matters regardless of distance. Migration is a network-driven social process, but where barriers are high, human capital matters more, especially in poorer countries with high average levels of educational attainment