2011 Public Opinion Polls of Jewish and Arab Citizens of Israel

Transcription

1 Anwar Sadat Chair for Peace and Development University of Maryland 2011 Public Opinion Polls of Jewish and Arab Citizens of Israel Poll of Jewish citizens conducted with Dahaf Institute, Nov , 2011 Sample size: 510, Margin of error +/- 4.4% Poll of Arab/Palestinian citizens conducted with JZ Analytics, Nov , 2011 Sample size: 500, Margin of error +/- 4.5% Professor Shibley Telhami, Principal Investigator Special thanks to the Carnegie Corporation of New York Mike Lebson, Evan Lewis and Abe Medoff assisted in preparation of this study

2 Jewish Citizens of Israel

3 Arab Awakening Thinking about the Arab Spring, is it mostly: Ordinary people seeking dignity, freedom and a better life 46% Opposition parties or sects seeking power 34% Foreign powers trying to stir trouble in the region 12% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

4 Arab Awakening Which of the following is closer to your view about the impact of the Arab Spring on Israel? Mostly for the better 15% No difference 21% Mostly for the worse 51% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

5 Arab Awakening If the Arab Spring does in fact lead to more democracy in the Arab world, would that be: Better for Israel 44% No difference 28% Worse for Israel 22% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

6 United States & the Middle East How would you describe your views of President Barack Obama of the United States? Positive 54% 41% Negative 39% 51%

7 United States & the Middle East How would you describe your attitudes toward the Obama administration policy in the Middle East so far? 2011 Hopeful 22% Neither 35% Discouraged 39%

8 Global Perceptions Which world leader (outside your own country) do you admire most? Angela Merkel 12% 9% Bill Clinton 10% 8% Winston Churchill 7% George Bush 7% Barack Obama 6% 5%

9 Arab-Israeli Conflict How would you describe the current status of Arabs in Israel? There is full equality between Arab and Jewish citizens 33% There is legal equality, but institutional and societal discrimination 52% It is an apartheid relationship 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

10 Arab-Israeli Conflict Which of the following is more important in your view: Jewishness of Israel 27% Both are equally important 47% Democracy of Israel 26% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

11 Arab-Israeli Conflict Which of the following statements is closest to your view about the prospects of lasting peace between Israel and the Palestinians? Will happen in the next five years 6% 8% Inevitable, but it will take more time 42% 43% Don t believe it will ever happen 49% 47%

12 Arab-Israeli Conflict Which of the following statements is closer to your view: I am prepared for a just and comprehensive peace with the Arabs based on the 1967 borders, with agreed modifications 43% 40% Even if all Arab states accept and recognize Israel, I still oppose withdrawing from territories occupied in % 27% Neither 24% 30%

13 Arab-Israeli Conflict Which of the following is closer to your position on the demand that the Palestinians accept Israel as a Jewish state: I support it and demand as a precondition for negotiations or settlement freeze 39% 36% I support it but would accept as part of a final peace agreement 40% 39% I do not support this demand 17% 23%

14 Arab-Israeli Conflict Given that 25% of Israelis are non-jews, which of the following is closer to your position on defining Israel as the homeland of the Jewish people and 2011 all its citizens : 2010 I support it 71% 71% I reject it 25% 27%

15 Arab-Israeli Conflict Should or shouldn t Israel do more than it does today to promote comprehensive peace with the Arabs based on the 1967 borders with agreed modifications and the establishment of a peaceful Palestinian state? Israel should 66% 62% Israel shouldn t 31% 35%

16 Arab-Israeli Conflict What do you believe is the likely outcome if prospects of a two-state solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict collapse: Status quo will continue with little change 47% 42% State of intense conflict for years to come 34% 42% Palestinians will eventually surrender to Israeli power & integrate into other societies One-state solution in which Israelis and Palestinians are equal 9% 4% 4% 4%

17 Iran & Nuclear Weapons* * The section on Iran s nuclear weapons is part of a joint project of the Sadat Chair at the University of Maryland and the Program on International Policy Attitudes and its director, Dr. Steven Kull

18 Iran & Nuclear Weapons There is talk of a possible Israeli attack on Iran s nuclear facilities. Do you: Support such an attack 43% Oppose such an attack 41%

19 Iran & Nuclear Weapons Assuming that these are the only two options, which do you think would be a better situation for Israel: Both Israel and Iran have nuclear weapons 19% Neither Israel nor Iran have nuclear weapons 65%

20 Iran & Nuclear Weapons How likely do you think it is that Iran will eventually develop nuclear weapons? 2011 Likely 90% Unlikely 6%

21 Iran & Nuclear Weapons So in total, do you support or oppose the idea of having a nuclear weaponsfree zone in the Middle East that would include both Islamic countries and Israel? 2011 Support 64% Object 31%

22 Identity Which of the following is your most important identity? Jewish 53% 49% Israeli 37% 39% Citizen of the world 4% 5% My family s country of origin 2% 4%

23 Arab/Palestinian Citizens of Israel

24 Iran & Nuclear Weapons There is international pressure on Iran to curtail its nuclear program. What is your opinion? 5 Arab Countries Arab/Palestinian Israelis Iran has the right to its nuclear program 64% 53% Iran should be pressured to stop its nuclear program 25% 32%

25 Iran & Nuclear Weapons Name TWO countries that you think pose the biggest threat to you. Arab/Palestinian Israelis 5 Arab Countries Israel United States Iran United Kingdom France 13 6 China 3 3

26 Iran & Nuclear Weapons There is talk of a possible Israeli attack on Iran s nuclear facilities. Do you: Jewish Israelis Arab/Palestinian Israelis Support such an attack 43% 4% Oppose such an attack 41% 68%

27 Global Perceptions Which world leader (outside your own country) do you admire most? Recep Erdogan Yasser Arafat Hassan Nasrallah Barack Obama Fidel Castro Hugo Chavez Saddam Hussein Hillary Clinton Nicolas Sarkozy Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Arab/Palestinian Israelis Arab Countries 22 N/A

28 Identity Which of the following is your most important identity? Arab/Palestinian Israelis Israeli Jews 5 Arab Countries Citizen of your country Religious identity (Muslim or Jew) Arab Citizen of the world 4 9 Palestinian 23

29 Arab-Israeli Conflict Would you accept the transfer of some Arab/Palestinian towns currently in Israel to a new Palestinian state, when established? Yes No Sadat Chair

30 Your opinion of possible recruitment of Israeli Arab/Palestinian citizens into non-military national service program: Reject under any circumstances Arab-Israeli Conflict Accept if Arabs granted equal rights to Jews Accept only after Palestinian state established Sadat Chair

31 Arab-Israeli Conflict How do you feel about Palestinian refugees right to return? Not too important Important but a compromise should be found Important and cannot be compromised in any way Sadat Chair

32 Arab-Israeli Conflict How would you describe the current status of Arabs in Israel? There is full equality between Arab and Jewish citizens Jewish Israelis 33% Arab/Palestinian Israelis 3% There is legal equality, but institutional and societal discrimination 52% 57% It is an apartheid relationship 7% 36%

33 Arab Awakening Looking at the international reaction to the events in the Arab world in the past few months, which TWO countries do you believe played the most constructive role? Turkey 5 Arab Countries 50% Arab/Palestinian Israelis 32% France 30% 29% United States 24% 45% China 20% 15% Britain 11% 21% Germany 10% 19% Russia 9% 24% Japan 8% 3%

34 Arab Awakening In retrospect, do you believe that the international intervention in Libya was: Arab/Palestinian Israelis 5 Arab Countries The right thing to do The wrong thing to do 44 46

35 Arab Awakening When you watch events in Syria, are your sympathies mostly with the government or the rebels seeking government change? Arab/Palestinian Israelis 5 Arab Countries Rebels Government 17 9

36 Arab Awakening When you watch events in Yemen, are your sympathies mostly with the government or the rebels seeking government change? Arab/Palestinian Israelis 5 Arab Countries Rebels Government 6 5

37 Arab Awakening When you watch events in Bahrain, are your sympathies mostly with the government or the rebels seeking government change? Arab/Palestinian Israelis 5 Arab Countries Rebels Government 8 24

38 Arab Awakening When you reflect on the Arab Spring, are you more optimistic or more pessimistic than before about the future of the Arab world? Arab/Palestinian Israelis 5 Arab Countries More optimistic Feeling no change More pessimistic 19 16

39 Arab Awakening As you look ahead toward the Presidential elections in Egypt, which of the following leaders would you like the next President to look like most? Arab/Palestinian Israelis 5 Arab Countries Erdogan Mandela 16 9 Obama Sarkozy Nasrallah Putin Ahmadinejad King Abdullah (KSA) Chavez