Survey on Turkish Elites Perceptions on Turkish Foreign Policy and Greek-Turkish Relations

Transcription

1 Survey on Turkish Elites Perceptions on Turkish Foreign Policy and Greek-Turkish Relations Dimitrios Triantaphyllou 14 December 2016 A survey hosted by

2 HOW DOES THE SURVEY DEFINE ELITES? In this research, Turkish elites are grouped within six categories as follows: Businessmen: Members of TUSIAD, TOBB, MUSIAD, and TUSKON Journalists: Diplomatic correspondents, senior editors, commentators in major dailies, TV and radio stations as well as news websites Diplomats: Directorate heads, deputy heads and senior Embassy staff as well as retired ambassadors Military: Officers ranking brigadier general and higher as well as retired senior officers Politicians: Members of the Committee on National Defence; the Committee on Foreign Affairs; the Committee on EU harmonization; and the Committee on Security and Intelligence of related ministries Academics/Think-tanks representatives: IR and politics faculty members as well as representatives from think-tanks

3 The questionnaire was hosted by Infakto Research Workshop. First Launch: 2 March 2016 (eight weeks) Second Launch: 17 November 2016 (four weeks) Research Team: Dimitrios Triantaphyllou (Project Manager) & Cihan Dizdaroğlu (Project Assistant) CATEGORY TIME FRAME & NUMBERS NUMBER OF PEOPLE RESPONSES RESPONSE RATE Academics/think-tank ,5% Military % Diplomats 196 Journalists 208 Businessmen % Politicians

4 ABOUT THE GREEK SURVEY (1) The first survey focused on National Role and Foreign Policy: A Descriptive Study of Greek Elites Perceptions towards Turkey Conducted by Dimitrios Triantaphyllou & Kostas Ifantis for the Hellenic Observatory, part of the European Institute at the London School of Economics. Dates: 1 October November 2014 (the survey was conducted in 2014) The questionnaire was hosted by Kapa Research (Athens)

5 ABOUT THE GREEK SURVEY (2) CATEGORY NUMBER OF PEOPLE RESPONSES RESPONSE RATE Academics ,9% Press ,6% Diplomats ,5% Politicians ,8% Military ,8% Business ,6%

6 QUESTIONS Three Sets of Questions Turkey s position in the world, its influence on the regional developments and/or global politics (Q 1-13) Greece s foreign policy, its internal affairs, and its role in world politics (Q 14-25) Greek-Turkish Relations (Q 26-41)

7 Yes TURKEY S ROLE IN THE WORLD (1) Q2: Do you believe that Turkish foreign policy can influence international politics? 15,2% 21,2% 20,5% Rather Yes Rather No 8,1% 6,1% 5,1% 67,7% 60,6% 69,2% 15,7 % 84,3 % No 9,1% 12,1% 5,1% Affirmative Negative Academics/Think-tanks Military Other

8 TURKEY S ROLE IN THE WORLD (2) Q3: Turkey can influence international politics with the quality of its ideas and its commitment to International Law 3 per cent of the respondents stated that they have no opinion. Totally agree Rather agree Neither agree, nor disagree Rather disagree Totally disagree 8,1% 12,1% 17,9% 13,1% 18,2% 12,8% 24,2% 12,1% 20,5% 22,2% 15,2% 20,5% 29,3% 39,4% 23,1% Academics/Think-tanks Military Other 41% 41%

9 TURKEY S ROLE IN THE WORLD (3) Q4: Turkey can influence international politics because of it is memberships in several international organizations Totally agree Rather agree Neither agree, nor disagree Rather disagree Totally disagree 10,1% 6,1% 15,4% 11,1% 12,1% 10,3% 15,2% 12,1% 12,8% 5,1% 12,1% 7,7% 55,6% 54,5% 53,8% 65,7% 21% 3 per cent of the respondents stated that they have no opinion. Academics/Think-tanks Military Other

10 TURKEY S ROLE IN THE WORLD (4) Q5: Turkey meets the international obligations deriving from its participation in the UN, NATO, and other organizations. Totally agree Rather agree Neither agree, nor disagree Rather disagree Totally disagree Don't know/no opinion 17,2% 33,3% 15,4% 36,4% 45,5% 30,8% 16,2% 6,1% 10,3% 20,2% 6,1% 20,5% 6,1% 3,0% 17,9% 4,0% 6,1% 5,1% 57% 25,6% Academics/Think-tanks Military Other

11 TURKEY S ROLE IN THE WORLD (5) Q6: To what degree do you believe that global concerns (Afghanistan, Syria, sub-saharan Africa, Ukraine, international terrorism, global warming, etc.) concern Turkish foreign policy? 15,1% 8,7% 76,2% Too much/much Somewhat Little/minimally

12 TURKEY S ROLE IN THE WORLD (6) Q7: In your opinion, do the Turkish citizens support a more active foreign policy that is not limited to the traditional (Greek-Turkish relations, Cyprus issue, controversy between Turkey and Armenia about the events of 1915, etc.) foreign policy issues? 26,7% 1,7% 71,5% Affirmative Negative Don't know/no opinion

13 TURKEY S ROLE IN THE WORLD (7) Q8: Have principles of Turkish foreign policy and the influence of the country been influenced due to the Arab Spring and to what degree? Too much Much Somewhat A little Minimally/Not at all 42,4% 36,4% 35,9% 30,3% 21,2% 46,2% 24,2% 10,3% 30,3% 1,0% 9,1% 5,1% 2,0% 2,6% 71,5% 3% 3 per cent of the military officers stated that they have no opinion. Academics/Think-tanks Military Other

14 TURKEY S ROLE IN THE WORLD (8) Q9: Distancing from the West and moving towards the Muslim world 6,4% 11,6% Q10: The bridge role between the West and the Muslim world 26,7% 79,1% 12,8% 58,1% Totally/Rather Agree Neither agree, nor disagree Totally/Rather Disagree 3 per cent of the respondents in both questions stated that they have no opinion. Totally/Rather Agree Neither agree, nor disagree Totally/Rather Disagree

15 GREECE S FOREIGN POLICY (1) Q14: Greece is a strategic partner of the US Q16: Even though Greece is a small nation, it can influence international politics 30,2% 45,9% 38,4% 45,9% 20,3% 11,6% 3.5 per cent of the respondents stated that they have no opinion. Totally/Rather Agree Neither agree, nor disagree Totally/Rather Disagree Totally/Rather Agree Neither agree, nor disagree Totally/Rather Disagree 4.1 per cent of the respondents stated that they have no opinion.

16 GREECE S FOREIGN POLICY (2) Q15: Greece is an important EU member state Q17: Greece can influence international politics because it is a member of the EU and NATO 3.5 per cent of the respondents stated that they have no opinion. 36,0% 12,8% 47,7% Totally/Rather Agree Neither agree, nor disagree Totally/Rather Disagree 22,7% 8,7% Totally/Rather Agree Neither agree, nor disagree Totally/Rather Disagree 66,3% 2.3 per cent of the respondents stated that they have no opinion.

17 GREECE S FOREIGN POLICY (3) Q18: The economic crisis in Greece has impacted its foreign policy. Q19: Has the prestige and the influence of the country been influenced due to the economic crisis and what degree? 3% 11% 5% 84% 5% 92% Totally/Rather Agree Neither agree, nor disagree Totally/Rather Disagree 2.9 per cent of the respondents stated that they have no opinion. Too Much/Much Somewhat Little/Minimally

18 GREECE S FOREIGN POLICY (4) Q20: Does Greece have any alternatives other than the EU? Yes 7,1% 15,2% 2,6% Rather Yes 7,1% 6,1% 12,8% 84% 16% Rather No No 12,1% 12,1% 7,7% 72,7% 63,6% 76,9% Affirmative Negative Academics/Think-tanks Military Other 1.7 per cent of the respondents stated that they have no opinion.

19 EU S ENERGY DEPENDENCE Q11: Turkey can play an active role in reducing the EU's energy dependence Totally agree Rather agree Neither agree, nor disagree Rather disagree Totally disagree 13,1% 61% 21,2% 15,4% 46,5% 39,4% 51,3% 15,2% 15,2% 10,3% 15,2% 22% 6,1% 15,4% 8,1% 12,1% 7,7% Academics/Think-tanks Military Other Q22: Greece can play an active role in reducing the EU's energy dependence Yes Rather Yes Rather No No 11,1% 15,2% 12,8% 21,2% 18,2% 23,1% 11,1% 9,1% 20,5% 52,5% 51,5% 43,6% 62% 34% Academics/Think-tanks Military Other

20 THE REFUGEE CRISIS Q12: Turkey is playing an active role in the resolution of the refugee crisis? Totally agree Rather agree Neither agree, nor disagree Rather disagree Totally disagree 16,2% 57% 30,3% 25,6% 43,4% 24,2% 28,2% 14,1% 6,1% 10,3% 17,2% 29% 12,1% 17,9% 8,1% 21,2% 17,9% Academics/Think-tanks Military Other Q21: Greece is playing an active role in the resolution of the refugee crisis? Totally agree Rather agree Neither agree, nor disagree Rather disagree Totally disagree 1,0% 3,0% 14,1% 6,1% 7,7% 8,1% 26,3% 30,3% 23,1% 24,2% 25,6% 12% 48,5% 30,3% 43,6% Academics/Think-tanks Military Other 41%

21 THE CYPRUS ISSUE (1) Q13: Turkey is a constructive player in the resolution of the Cyprus issue? Totally agree Rather agree Neither agree, nor disagree Rather disagree Totally disagree 3.5 per cent of the respondents stated that they have no opinion. 15,2% 20,5% 21,2% 21,2% 9,1% 15,4% 20,2% 15,2% 17,9% 5,1% 12,1% 12,8% 36,4% 35,4% 33,3% Academics/Think-tanks Military Other 52,3% 26,7%

22 THE CYPRUS ISSUE (2) Q25: Greece is obstructing the resolution of the Cyprus issue? Yes 28,3% 30,8% 57,6% 72,7% Rather Yes 41,4% 36,4% 33,3% Rather No 23,2% 17,9% 24,4% No 5,1% 17,9% 2.9 per cent of the respondents stated that they have no opinion. Academics/Think-tanks Military Other

23 THE CYPRUS ISSUE (3) According to Turkish elites, the roles in the resolution of the Cyprus issue are considered as follows, TURKISH ELITES Supportive GREEK ELITES Obstacle 26,7% 24,4% 52,3% 17,4% 72,7% Rather/Totally agree Neither agree, nor disagree Rather/Totally disagree Affirmative Negative

24 GREEK-TURKISH RELATIONS (1) TURKISH ELITES Q26: Do you agree with the rapprochement strategy Turkey is implementing towards Greece since 1999? Totally agree Rather agree Neither agree, nor disagree Rather disagree 15,2% 1,0% 3,0% 2,6% 3,0% 9,1% 28,3% 17,9% 63,6% 74,4% 63,6% 89% 4,6% 4.7 per cent of the respondents stated that they have no opinion. Totally disagree 1,0% 2,6% Academics/Think-tanks Military Other

25 GREEK-TURKISH RELATIONS (2) GREEK ELITES Q26: Do you agree with the rapprochement strategy Greece is implementing towards Turkey since 1999? Totally agree [VALUE]% [VALUE]% [VALUE]% [VALUE]% [VALUE]% [VALUE]% Rather agree 43,4 26,7 40,0 60,0 20,0 53,8 5,7 Neither agree, nor disagree 11,1 16,7 20,0 11,5 Rather disagree 9,4 13,3 7,5 8,0 28,9 11,5 Totally disagree 3,8 10,0 5,0 16,0 31,1 3,8 Academic Businessman Journalist Politician Military officer Diplomat 63,5% 25,5%

26 Support for the rapprochement strategy TURKISH ELITES GREEK ELITES 4,6% 25,5% 1,7% 89,0% 11,0% 63,5% Rather/Totally Agree Neither agree, nor disagree Rather/Totally Disagree Rather/Totally agree Neither agree, nor disagree Rather/Totally disagree

27 GREEK-TURKISH RELATIONS (3) TURKISH ELITES Q27: Greece is steadily supporting Turkey s accession to the EU 2,0% Totally agree 3,0% 25% Rather agree Neither agree, nor disagree Rather disagree Totally disagree 3,0% 3,0% 5,1% 25,3% 35,9% 21,2% 18,2% 27,3% 30,8% 30,3% 25,6% 54,5% 56,4% 4.7 per cent of the respondents stated that they have no opinion. Academics/Think-tanks Military Other

28 GREEK-TURKISH RELATIONS (4) GREEK ELITES Greece should continue steadily supporting Turkey s accession to the EU? Totally agree Rather agree Neither agree, nor disagree Rather disagree Totally disagree 3,3 5,7 5,0 13,3 15,4 11,3 12,0 11,5 16,7 15,6 12,0 11,5 11,3 16,7 15,0 24,0 32,1 36,7 25,0 28,0 23,1 22,5 24,0 26,7 28,9 32,5 31,1 39,6 38,5 51,6% 36,1% Academic Businessman Journalist Politician Military Diplomat

29 Support for the Turkey s accession to the EU TURKISH ELITES GREEK ELITES 25,0% 36,1% 56,4% 14,0% 12,3% 51,6% Rather/Totally Agree Neither agree, nor disagree Rather/Totally Disagree Rather/Totally agree Neither agree, nor disagree Rather/Totally disagree

30 GREEK-TURKISH RELATIONS (5) Q28: Greece s membership in the EU constitutes a threat for Turkey s accession Totally agree Rather agree Neither agree, nor disagree Rather disagree Totally disagree 7,7% 16,2% 9,1% 12,8% 6,1% 14,1% 11,1% 15,4% 23,2% 32,3% 39,4% 30,8% 30,8% 39,4% 50,6% 31,4% 4.1 per cent of the respondents stated that they have no opinion. Academics/Think-tanks Military Other

31 Q15: Greece is an important EU member state Q17: Greece can influence international politics because it is a member of the EU and NATO 36,0% 47,7% 22,7% 8,7% 66,3% 12,8% Totally/Rather Agree Neither agree, nor disagree Totally/Rather Disagree Totally/Rather Agree Neither agree, nor disagree Totally/Rather Disagree

32 GREEK-TURKISH RELATIONS (6) Q29: Turkey can trust Greece TURKISH ELITES Totally agree 5,1% 3,0% 2,6% 28% Rather agree 28,3% 15,2% 20,5% Neither agree, nor disagree 12,1% 28,3% 35,9% Rather disagree Totally disagree 23,2% 12,1% 17,9% 12,1% 20,5% 48,5% 40,7% 4.7 per cent of the respondents stated that they have no opinion. Academics/Think-tanks Military Other

33 GREEK-TURKISH RELATIONS (7) GREEK ELITES 5,7 Totally agree 2,5 Greece can trust Turkey 11,4 % Rather agree Neither agree, nor disagree Rather disagree Totally disagree 22,6 10,0 7,5 8,0 3,8 32,1 22,5 20,0 6,7 19,2 30,2 10,0 22,2 9,4 27,5 28,0 15,4 40,0 40,0 44,0 40,0 61,5 65,3 % 71,1 Academic Businessman Journalist Politician Military Diplomat

34 Mutual trust TURKISH ELITES GREEK ELITES 40,7% 28,0% 11,4% 23,3% 65,3% 26,7% Rather/Totally Agree Neither agree, nor disagree Rather/Totally Disagree Rather/Totally agree Neither agree, nor disagree Rather/Totally disagree

35 GREEK-TURKISH RELATIONS (8) TURKISH ELITES Q30: An improvement in Greece s economy is in Turkey s interest Totally agree Rather agree Neither agree, nor disagree Rather disagree Totally disagree 8,1% 18,2% 2,6% 2,0% 12,1% 2,6% 0,0% 2,6% 18,2% 24,2% 18,2% 41,4% 38,5% 46,5% 79% 51,3% Academics/Think-tanks Military Other 8% Totally agree Rather agree Neither agree, nor disagree Rather disagree Totally disagree GREEK ELITES Turkey s vast economic growth is in Greece s interest 17,0 10,0 10,0 2,2 39,4% 37,7 46,7 52,5 24,0 4,4 26,9 18,9 10,0 36,0 17,8 30,8 13,2 16,7 17,5 41% 28,0 40,0 26,9 13,2 16,7 12,0 35,6 15,4 Academic Businessman Journalist Politician Military Diplomat

36 GREEK-TURKISH RELATIONS (9) TURKISH ELITES Q31: Economic crisis in Greece constitutes a threat for Turkey GREEK ELITES Turkish direct investments to Greece are a threat to Greek national interests 24,4% 25% 44,8% 26,2% 61% 14% 4.1 per cent of the respondents stated that they have no opinion. Totally/Rather Agree Totally/Rather Disagree Neither agree, nor disagree Totally/rather agree Neither agree, nor disagree Totally/rather disagree

37 GREEK-TURKISH RELATIONS (10) TURKISH ELITES Q32: How would you evaluate the current state of Turkish-Greek relations? GREEK ELITES How would you characterize the current state of Greek-Turkish relations? 12,8% 42,4% 17,8 34,7 41,9% per cent of the respondents stated that they have no opinion. Good/rather good Neither good, nor bad Bad/rather bad Good/rather good Neither good nor bad Bad/rather bad

38 GREEK-TURKISH RELATIONS (11) 95,9% TURKISH ELITES GREEK ELITES Q33: How important is the resolution of the Cyprus issue for the improvement of bilateral relations? 1,2% 11,0% 6% 2% 92,4% 32,6% 52,3% 21% 44% 27% Extremely important Rather important 2.9 per cent of the respondents stated that they have no opinion. Very important Not at all important Extremely important Rather important Not at all important Very important Little or not at all important

39 GREEK-TURKISH RELATIONS (12) TURKISH ELITES Q34: Do you think there would be any crisis between Greece and Turkey within the next five years? Extremely likely Very likely Likely Rather improbable Improbable 1,0% 3,0% 9,1% 7,7% 5,1% 12,1% 5,1% 18,2% 18,2% 34,3% Academics/Think-tanks Military Other 35,9% 47,5% 42,4% 51,3% 3.5 per cent of the respondents stated that they have no opinion. 53,5%

40 GREEK-TURKISH RELATIONS (13) GREEK ELITES How likely do you consider any crisis between Greece and Turkey within the next five years? Extremely likely Very likely Likely Rather improbable Improbable 6,7 2,5 8,0 6,7 7,7 11,3 20,0 15,0 16,0 28,9 15,4 28,3 23,3 35,0 36,0 35,6 19,2 47,2 40,0 46,7 22,2 36,0 13,2 3,3 7,5 6,7 57,7 Academic Businessman Journalist Politician Military Diplomat 47%

41 GREEK-TURKISH RELATIONS (14) TURKISH ELITES Q41: Which of the following is the most likely cause for a hot crisis? Academics/Thinktanks 11,1% 17,2% 19,2% 47,5% Military 3,0% 15,2% 3,0% 27,3% 39,4% Other 7,7% 10,3% 5,1% 17,9% 56,4% Refugee Thrace Aegean (Delimitation, EEZ etc.) Cyprus Energy resources in the Eastern Mediterranean 6.4 per cent of the respondents stated that they have no opinion.

42 GREEK-TURKISH RELATIONS (15) GREEK ELITES Which of the following is the most likely cause for a hot crisis? Academic 24,5 3,8 3,8 67,9 Businessman 26,7 6,7 6,7 60,0 Journalist 30,0 7,5 62,5 Politician 28,0 16,0 8,0 48,0 Military 31,1 11,1 57,8 Diplomat 38,5 7,7 3,8 50,0 An internal crisis in Turkey Cyprus Thrace Aegean

43 According to another survey on the Public Perceptions of the Turkish Foreign Policy conducted by Kadir Has University in 2015 What is the most important problem between Turkey and Greece? Is there a problem between Turkey and Greece? ,5 Hayır, sorun 49,4 yoktur; 50,6 Yes, there is a problem 46,5 Evet, sorun vardır; 49,4 50,6 No, there are no problems The Cyprus dispute Border problems Militarization of the Aegean islands Historical problems Political relations Racial enmity Economic problems The Islands dispute Problems regarding minorities 4,5 5,1 3,4 2,0 1,9 1,5 0,2 1,5 2,8 0,7 7,3 12,1 21,9 21,1 31,0 29,6 27,

44 SOME CONCLUSIONS FOOD FOR THOUGHT (1) How to explain the greater reticence of the Turkish Elites to respond to survey? Political climate in country? Need for different approach to reach out to them? The two surveys were conducted at slightly different times (between 16 to 25 months difference) yet they are almost parallel. But no questions about the refugee issue in Greek Elite Survey; no distinction between Aegean and Eastern Med in Greek Survey, reflecting the Greek approach; no questions regarding who is constructive or not regarding Cyprus?

45 SOME CONCLUSIONS FOOD FOR THOUGHT (2) Low levels of trust Strong support for the rapprochement process Overwhelming importance of Cyprus issue for both sides for the resolution of bilateral issues Potential of the energy issue as an area of cooperation (according to Turkish Elites) (Q. 11, 22) Potential of refugee crisis to be a disruptive factor in Turkish-Greek relations (according to Turkish Elites) Potential of internal crisis in Turkey to be a disruptive factor in Greek-Turkish relations (according to Greek Elites)

46 SOME CONCLUSION FOOD FOR THOUGHT (3) Suspicion among Turkish Elites regarding Greek membership in EU and Greek support to Turkey s accession bid (Q ) In fact, almost direct correlation between the perceived role of Greece in the EU (Q.14-20) and its lack of alternatives and Turkey s need for a greater international role and distancing from West (Q. 6-10) Also, regarding the resolution of the Cyprus issue, Turkish Elites perceive Turkey to be a constructive player (52,3%) while Greece is not (72,7%).

47 SOME CONCLUSION FOOD FOR THOUGHT (4) If there were to be a crisis between the two countries, the main reasons for Turkish Elites are (similar to Greek Elites): The Aegean disputes (delimitation, EEZ etc.) Newly discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean The Cyprus issue Both Turkish and Greek consider that Greek-Turkish relations are predominantly neither good, nor bad (41.9% - 47%) while a minority on both sides consider them to be bad or rather bad (12.8% %) This encapsulates the Cold Peace the two countries have been experiencing since 1999 not rapprochement, some potential interdependence, unwillingness or inability to resolve outstanding issues, resolution of Cyprus as trigger.

48 Thank you