Armenia National Voter Study

Transcription

1 Armenia National Voter Study August 006 International Republican Institute, Baltic Surveys Ltd. / The Gallup Organization, Armenian Sociological Association with funding from the United States Agency for International Development

2 INFORMATION ABOUT THE SURVEY This national representative survey was conducted from July to August 0, 006.,00 Armenian residents (voters) aged 8 years and over were interviewed face-to-face. The margin of error does not exceed percent. The survey was carried out on behalf of IRI. It was funded by the United States Agency for International Development. The study was designed, coordinated and analyzed by Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization (Dr. R.Alisauskiene). The fieldwork was carried out by the Armenian Sociological Association (ASA).

3 MOOD OF THE COUNTRY

4 Mood of the country: 6 percent of Armenians think that the country is on the wrong track, while percent think that the country is going in the right direction Do you think that things in Armenia are going in the... Right direction Wrong direction Don't know, no answer August May

5 Mood of the country: 9 percent of Armenians see improvement in the country s economy, while percent think it is declining Over the last months, the economic situation in Armenia has... Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know, no answer August May

6 Mood of the country: 6 percent of Armenians say their household s financial situation has improved, while percent say it has declined Over the last months, the financial situation of your household has... Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know, no answer August May

7 Mood of the country: 9 percent of Armenians are satisfied with the development of democracy, while 68 percent are not How satisfied are you with the way democracy is developing in Armenia? Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied DK/NA August May

8 Mood of the country: An overall majority of Armenians think that it will take a long time to improve things in their country Do you believe that things will get better in a short time, or will it take a long time for things to get better in the country? Short time Long time Not sure/refused to answer August May

9 Mood of the nation: expectations No answer Total disbelief in any improvement Insecurity, fear for future 60 0 Apathy May 006 August 006 Not much hope for the future Hope that the future will be somewhat better Belief that the future will be definitely better 9

10 Mood of the nation Optimism Neutral Pessimism August May

11 Over the last year attitude towards the way things are developing in Armenia has become: DK/NA More pesimistic Stayed the same More optimistic May 006 August 006

12 ISSUES

13 Most important issues facing Armenia, May 006 (response in %) Unemployment Problem of Nagorno-Karabakh Region* Social-economic situation Development of the economy, industry Corruption 6 Democracy, respect of human rights Migration Foreign policy 6 Recognition of genocide Other DK/NA First mention All mentions * Between Armenia and Azerbaijan engaged in military conflict for possession of this disputed territory

14 Most important issues facing Armenia. August 006 (response in %) Unemployment Social-economic situation Problem of Nagorno-Karabakh Region 8 0 Development of the economy, industry 7 6 Democracy, respect of human rights 0 Corruption 0 Foreign policy Migration Recognition of genocide 7 First mention All mentions Other 6 DK/NA 6 6

15 Most important issue facing towns/villages in Armenia. May 006 (%) Unemployment Development of economy/industry/agriculture Housing, communal services Sanitation 9 Transport, road conditions 8 7 Low salaries, pensions 8 Illegal construction 6 0 Ecology 7 Corruption Other 6 8 First mention All mentions DK/NA 9 9

16 Most important issue facing towns/villages in Armenia. August 006 (%) Unemployment 0 Housing, communal services Development of economy/industry/agriculture Transport, road conditions 9 9 Sanitation 8 0 Ecology 7 Illegal construction Low salaries, pensions Corruption 6 First mention All mentions Other 7 DK/NA 8 8 6

17 Most important issue facing households in Armenia. May 006 (%) Social-economic situation Unemployment 8 Housing, communal services 7 Education 7 Healthcare Low incomes Other First mention All mentions DK/NA 8 8 7

18 Most important issue facing households in Armenia. August 006 (%) Social-economic situation Unemployment 7 Housing, communal services 0 Low income Education Unsatisfactory communal services 9 9 Healthcare Work abroad Absence of the agricultural machinery Other 6 First mention All mentions No problems DK/NA 8

19 Issues At the personal/household level, social issues most pressing. are At community level, the most important problem is unemployment. At the national level, social problems and territorial integrity/security issues are most important. 9

20 Acceptability of forms of social protest May 006 (%) Collecting signatures for petition, letter 0 Boycott 9 7 Legal demonstrations 79 0 Demonstrations without permission 6 6 Legal strikes 7 Strikes without permission 6 Occupation of buildings or enterprises 8 Acceptable Not acceptable No opinion 0

21 Acceptability of forms of social protest August 006 (%) Collecting signatures for petition, letter 0 7 Boycott 67 Legal demonstrations 78 Demonstrations without permission 7 7 Legal strikes 7 Strikes without permission 6 7 Occupation of buildings or enterprises 9 88 Acceptable Not acceptable No opinion

22 Problems of Nagorno-Karabkh Region People s Fears May 006 (%) 8 Slow development of economy 7 6 Migration 7 Unemployment Social-economic situation 7 7 Natural disasters Corruption First mention None All mentions Other 9 7 DK/NA

23 People s Fears August 006 (%) Problems of Nagorno Karabakh Region 8 Unemployment Social-economic situation 7 8 Migration Slow development of economy Genocide Unequal enforcement of laws Wrong policy Corruption Criminality Turkish Economic Blockade First mention All mentions Other DK/NA 0

24 People s Fears The biggest fears are related to instability/security: territorial integrity of the country, war and social instability, unemployment, social-economic problems.

25 POLITICS

26 What should the Armenian government do first of all to attract the support of the majority of the Armenian population? May 006 (%) Ful-fill promises 6 Create jobs 9 Increase salaries, pensions Develop economy 0 Carry out fair elections 7 9 Fight corruption Return deposits 6 First mention All mentions Improve sanitary conditions Other 9 DK/NA 9 9 6

27 What should the Armenian government do first of all to attract the support of the majority of the Armenian population? August 006 (%) Create jobs Increase democracy Increase salaries, pensions Develop economy Carry out fair elections Fulfill promises Fight corruption Lead correct politics Return deposits Change members of the government Help homeless and elderly Attach Nagorno Karabakh to Armenia Lower taxes Other DK/NA First mention All mentions 7 7

28 Interest in politics (%) Low interest Medium interest High interest DK/NA August May

29 Do you plan to vote in the next Parliamentary elections or not? Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no Have not decided yet DK/NA August May

30 Why do you plan to vote? (Planning to vote %) May 006 N = 860 August 006 N = It's my duty 9 I care about party / candidate I care about a particular issue I enjoy voting on election day 8 7 To prevent fraud 0. Other 0

31 Why do you plan not to vote? (Not planning to vote %) May 006 N = 8 August 006 N = I am not interested in politics My vote does not change anything I do not believe that elections will be fair I don t have time to go to the polls 8 I don't like any party or candidate I don't have enough information about parties and candidates Other DK/NA

32 Characteristics/Attributes Most Important in a Parliamentary Candidate May 006 (%) Taking care of people 7 Honesty Education Democratic Outlook 8 0 Morality, modesty 0 Professionalism Hard-working 8 8 First mention All mentions Other DK/NA 0

33 Characteristics/Attributes Most Important in a Parliamentary Candidate August 006 (%) Honesty, objectivity Education Democrat outlook Taking care of people Hard-working Fulfilling Promises Patriotic Morality, modesty Professionalism Strong will Other DK/NA First mention All mentions 8 0

34 When considering which party to vote for what is more important: Leader is more important Party is more important None No answer August May

35 All other things equal, would vote for: More active, younger candidate More experienced, older Does not matter No answer August 006 May

36 All other things equal, would vote for: Male Female Does not matter No answer August May

37 Most liked features of Armenian politicians or parties (%) Determination, consistency 8 Trustworthy, objectivity Democratic orientation Justice Education Devotion, dedication 6 May 006 August 006 None 9 Other DK/NA 8 9 7

38 Most disliked features of Armenian politicians or parties (%) Lying Corruption Their actions do not correspond to what they say Arrogance 9 Indifference 6 9 Irreconcilability Lack of education May 006 August 006 Seeking high position Conflicts 9 Other None 6 DK/NA 7 8

39 Major mistakes and failures of Armenian authorities over the last year. May 006 (%) Did not prevent rise of prices Ignoring laws 6 Privatization Lack of attention to people Did not fight enough against corruption First mention All mentioned Not returning deposits Falsification of 00 constitutional referendum Other DK/NA 7 7 9

40 Major mistakes and failures of Armenian authorities over the last year. August 006 (%) Sale of important objects Ignoring laws Lack of attention to people Did not prevent rise of prices Did not fight enough against corruption Did not fulfill promises Decisions on the future of Nagorno Karabakh Region Falsification of 00 constitutional referendum Greatly reduced dollar exchange rate All actions of the government Not returning deposits Educational system Low salaries, low pensions Other DK/NA First mention All mentioned 0

41 The wrong doing and corruption of political leaders and authorities is (%) Very serious problem Rather serious problem Not very serious problem Not a problem at all DK/NA August May

42 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

43 Evaluation of relations with May 006 (%) Good Bad Neither good nor bad DK/NA Russia 9 Iran 86 9 European Union 8 7 USA 67 8 Georgia 6 0 Turkey 7 90 Azerbaijan

44 Evaluation of relations with August 006 (%) Good Bad Neither good nor bad DK/NA Russia 9 European Union 87 7 Iran 80 USA 66 9 Georgia 6 7 Turkey 7 90 Azerbaijan

45 International relations: partners and threats May 006 (%) Which countries are the most important partners for Armenia? And which comprise the greatest political and economic threat? 86 Partners Threats Russia France Iran European Union USA Georgia Turkey Azerbaijan None DK/NA

46 International relations: partners and threats August 006 (%) Which countries are the most important partners for Armenia? And which comprise the greatest political and economic threat? 8 Partners Threats Russia France European Union Iran USA Georgia Turkey Azerbaijan None DK/NA 6

47 How important is it for Armenia to solve the problems related to Nagorno Karabakh in the near future? Is it. (%) Very important Rather important Not very important Not at all important DK / NA August May

48 Thinking about the future of Nagorno Karabakh, do you think it should (%) Be an ordinary region of Armenia, without any autonomy Be an autonomous region of the Armenian state Be an independent country Be a part of Azerbaijan DK/NA 8

49 Do you think that the current situation in regard to the status of Nagorno Karabakh should be resolved by using negotiations and peaceful means, or should some force should be used if necessary? (%) Negotiations and peaceful means Using force if necessary DK/NA August May

50 Do you think that a peaceful settlement on Nagorno Karabakh can be reached with Azerbaijan without military force being used? Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no DK/NA August May

51 In your opinion, does the presence of a Russian military base in Armenia have a positive or negative influence on Armenian independence and stability in the country? Positive influence Neither positive nor negative Both positive and negative Negative influence DK/NA August May

52 Should the government of Armenia agree to open the border for trade, etc. with Turkey even if the Turks do not recognize the genocide? Should open the border regardless Should not open the border DK/NA August May

53 Do you support US, EU and Russian efforts to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons? Definitely agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Definitely disagree DK/NA August May

54 Do you have friends or relatives working abroad? Yes No August May

55 Do you personally benefit from remittances being sent from friends or relatives working abroad? (Those who have friends or relatives abroad, %) Yes No August 006 N=780 May 006 N=

56 Is a colored revolution like what happened in other Commonwealth of Independent States countries likely in Armenia? (%) Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no DK/NA August 006 May

57 Do you think Russia is a trustworthy ally of Armenia? (%) Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no DK/NA August May

58 Should Armenia in the future May 006 (%) Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no DK/NA Join NATO Join European Union Remain a member of Commonwealth of Independent States

59 Should Armenia in the future August 006 (%) Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no DK/NA Join NATO 7 9 Join European Union 8 7 Remain a member of Commonwealth of Independent States

60 INSTITUTIONS 60

61 Confidence in institutions, May 006 (%) Favorable Unfavorable No opinion European Union Commonwealth of Independent States Army United Nations Organization Church Armenian Media Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe NATO Central Bank Educational System Police President's Office Government (Cabinet of Ministers) Political Parties Armenian Parliament

62 Confidence in institutions, August 006 (%) Favorable Unfavorable No opinion European Union Army Church Commonwealth of Independent States United Nations Organization Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe Armenian Media NATO Educational System Central Bank Police President's Office Government (Cabinet of Ministers) Political Parties Armenian Parliament

63 HEROES OF OUR TIMES 6

64 Heroes for our times Of the prominent Armenian people and characters in Armenian history and folk culture, who is most suitable to be a national hero or leader in the present time? (Open-ended ended question %) May Andranik Garegin Njdeh Vazgen Sargsyan Karen Demirchyan Tigran Metz Sharl Aznavur Dro Monte Melkonyan Mesrop Mashtoc Other None 6 DK/NA

65 Heroes for our times Of the prominent Armenian people and characters in Armenian history and folk culture, who is most suitable to be a national hero or leader in the present? (Open-ended ended question %) August Andranik Vazgen Sargsyan Garegin Njdeh Karen Demirchyan Tigran Metz Vardan Mamikonyan Gagik Tsarukyan Monte Melkonyan Mesrop Mashtoc Sharl Aznavur Dro Marshal Bagramyan Other None 6 DK/NA

66 VALUES OF ARMENIAN PEOPLE, May 006 (Mean scores, - Important to me, 9 - Most important to me ) To be safe and protected from misfortune To be accepted and needed by your family, friends and community Security Self - respect Being well respected To have close companionships and intimate friendships To lead a pleasurable, happy life To succeed at what you wanted to do To find peace of mind and to make the best use of our talents Warm relationships with others Fun and enjoyment in life Self- fulfillment Sense of accomplishment To be proud of yourself and confident with who you are Excitement Sense of belonging To be admired by others and to receive recognition To lead an exciting, stimulating life

67 VALUES OF ARMENIAN PEOPLE. August, 006 (Mean scores, - Important to me, 9 - Most important to me ) To be accepted and needed by your family, friends and community Security To be safe and protected from misfortune Self - respect Being well respected To find peace of mind and to make the best use of our talents To have close companionships and intimate friendships Warm relationships with others To lead a pleasurable, happy life To succeed at what you wanted to do Self- fulfillment Fun and enjoyment in life Sense of accomplishment Excitement To be proud of yourself and confident with who you are Sense of belonging To be admired by others and to receive recognition To lead an exciting, stimulating life

68 Tolerance May 006 (%) Tend to agree Tend to disagree DK/NA It is a good thing for any society to be made up of people from different religions Armenia has always consisted of various cultural and religious groups In order to be fully accepted members of Armenian society, people belonging to these minority groups must give up such parts of their religion or culture which may be in conflict with Armenian tradition 9 0 Armenia has reached its limits; if there were to be more people belonging to religious minorities we would have problems 9 9 Whether people belonging to religious minority groups can be fully accepted members of Armenian society depends on which group they belong to

69 Tolerance August 006 (%) Tend to agree Tend to disagree DK/NA It is a good thing for any society to be made up of people from different religions 6 7 Armenia has always consisted of various cultural and religious groups In order to be fully accepted members of Armenian society, people belonging to these minority groups must give up such parts of their religion or culture which may be in conflict with Armenian tradition Armenia has reached its limits; if there were to be more people belonging to religious minorities we would have problems 0 6 Whether people belonging to religious minority groups can be fully accepted members of Armenian society depends on which group they belong to

70 SOURCES OF INFORMATION 70

71 Sources of political information (%) TV - news programs Radio - news programs 8 Relatives, friends Articles in newspapers 7 Colleagues at work Internet Articles in magazines Meetings with politicians May 006 August 006 Billboards, stands in the streets 7 Leaflets, the other free information by post 7

72 Sources of information in election campaign May 006 (%) Great influence Some influence Not much influence No influence at all DK/NA Meetings with politicians 0 7 Meetings with / opinions of respected people TV ads 8 Visits of party or candidate representatives to your home Telephone calls to your home from the political party or candidate 9 Personal letters to you from the candidate 9 Articles in the newspapers about the candidates 8 Leaflets Paid ads in the media for the candidate or party Radio ads Billboards 7 Slogans, texts on buses 7 7

73 Sources of information in election campaign August 006 (%) Great influence Some influence Not much influence No influence at all DK/NA Meetings with politicians Meetings with / opinions of respected people TV ads 7 6 Articles in the newspapers about the candidates 6 6 Visits of party or candidate representatives to your home Personal letters to you from the candidate 0 Leaflets 0 9 Radio ads Paid ads in the media for the candidate or party Slogans, texts on buses 9 0 Billboards Telephone calls to your home from the political party or candidate 7 9

74 Trust in elections How fraudulent was the referendum of 00? (0 - very fraudulent, - not at all fraudulent) 0 May 006 August Total Male Female Capital Town Village 7

75 Trust in elections The next parliamentary elections will be (%) Free and fair Not free and fair No opinion August May

76 Trust in elections 0 How fraudulent will the upcoming Parliamentary elections be? (0 - very fraudulent, - not at all fraudulent) Total Male Female Capital Town Village 76

77 Trust in elections Do you think that the Armenian Government is implementing anti-fraud measures for the Parliamentary elections and that they will indeed be free and fair? 00 7 DK/NA May 006 August 006 No, it is not sincere and there will not be improvement Yes, it is implementing measures of this kind and there will be improvement 77

78 SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHICS 78

79 Gender Male 7% Female % 0+ years old % Age groups 8-9 years old 7% 0-9 years old % 79

80 Unfinished higher % University, higher % Education Primary % Unfinished secondary % Vocational % Secondary 0% Household size Six % Seven and more 0% Five % One % Four % Three % Two % 80

81 Non governmental % Sector of employment Don't work 9% State % Private % Member of Non- Governmental Organization.0% Member of a party 0.0% Membership in organizations None 88.0% 8

82 Religion Other 0.% None 0.6% Other Christian.% Armenian Apostolic 97.% Yezidi 0.% Once a week % Attendance of religious service Once a month % A few times a week % Every Day % Never 9% A few times per year % 8