Demographic Trends Affecting Transportation in the U.S.

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1 Demographic Trends Affecting Transportation in the U.S. Robert Puentes September 11, 2008 Washington, DC

2 Demographic Trends Affecting Transportation in the U.S Realities on the ground have changed dramatically These changes have 3 main spatial effects on the American landscape Together these patterns have a series of important implications.

3 Population Growth Immigration Internal Migration Aging Household Formation

4 Unlike most European nations and Japan, the U.S. will continue to grow at a considerable rate. 600, , ,000 Percent growth Absolute growth Percent and absolute population growth, , , ,000 Nigeria Pakistan Philippines Bangladesh India Brazil U.S. Canada Indonesia Norway U.K. France China Spain 0-100, % 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% Netherlands Korea Austria Denmark Italy Germany Czech Hungary Japan Poland Source: U.N. Population Division

5 The increase in population will continue to be fueled in part by an enormous wave of immigration. 12 Legal Undocumented Total foreign-born, in millions, Temprorary (Net) Projected 8 Millions Source: Jeffrey S. Passel, 2006

6 This immigration is essential to offset another major demographic trend: the aging of the baby boom generation. 40% 35% Percent growth in U.S. total and senior populations by decade, % Age 65+ Total 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Source: Frey, 2007

7 However, since minorities have younger age structures than whites, the nation s population pyramids will look quite different. Whites Hispanics Male Female Male Female US age distribution, by race, 2020 (Age pyramid moves from the elderly at the top to youths at the bottom) Blacks \ API/AI Male Female Male Female Source: Census

8 Household size is declining sharply, primarily due to the increases in single person and parent households. Persons per household, Absolute change in households, Millions person household Single w/ kids Married w/ kids Married no kids Other family Nonfamily Sources: (1) Yi, Land, Wang, and Danan; (2) Frey and Berube, 2003 and updated

9 But these growth trends are highly variable across the country. The story of rapid growth in the U.S. is largely confined to the South and the West. 40% South U.S. population growth, % 30% 25% 20% Midwest Northeast West 15% 10% 5% 0% Source: Census

10 Demographic Trends Affecting Transportation in the U.S Realities on the ground have changed dramatically These changes have 3 main spatial effects on the American landscape Together these patterns have a series of important implications.

11 First, rather than dispersing randomly all this population and economic activity is shifting and re-aggregating within and between major metropolitan areas. Metropolitan areas have become the engines of national prosperity.

12 Second, these mega-trends are revaluing the assets of the cities and urban cores within metropolitan areas. These forces have reconfirmed the primacy and centrality of place.

13 Third, America's metropolitan areas have become exceedingly complex and have moved well beyond the conventional city versus suburb divide. These are not your parent s suburbs

14 Demographic Trends Affecting Transportation in the U.S Realities on the ground have changed dramatically These changes have 3 main spatial effects on the American landscape Together these patterns have a series of important implications.

15 Never make predictions, especially about the future. -Casey Stengel

16 1. What will be the impacts on residential location? Preference for next residential location, 2004 Urban Areas 54% Suburbs 20% Exurbs 26% The pressure will be on existing places especially cities and first suburbs to accommodate new growth. Source: Nelson, Toward a New Metropolis, 2004 Source: NAR, 2004

17 2. How will transportation be impacted by changing household formation? Projected Demand: Housing Units in Transit Zones 14.6 million Demand for higherdensity housing in transit zones could far outstrip the supply of this kind of housing. Source: Center for Transit-Oriented Development, Hidden in Plain Sight and Harvard, State of the Nation s Housing

18 3. What will be the impacts of continued diversity? The nation will be majority minority by 2050 and nearly 90 percent of the population growth in 2050 will be the result of post 2000 net immigration. Immigrants are more likely to carpool. But their high levels of transit use decline over time. Blacks and Hispanics together make up nearly half of the nation s transit users

19 4. What will be the impacts of the aging of the population? 50% Percent of metro residents residing in central cities by age group, % 30% 20% 10% 0% Under Age Group The location preferences of the elderly do not suggest a back-to-the-city movement.

20 5. What will be the impacts of national migration shifts? Projected population change, by county, LOSS GAIN The challenge will be maintaining investments in declining areas without overbuilding.

21 Demographics will not be the only determinant of our future, of course. Globalization, climate change, technological innovation, freight, energy concerns, and public policy are key. Yet we have an enormous opportunity now to shape our nation's metropolitan future.

22 Demographic Trends Affecting Transportation in the U.S. Robert Puentes September 11, 2008 Washington, DC

The Brookings Institution Metropolitan Policy Program Robert Puentes, Fellow

The Brookings Institution Metropolitan Policy Program Robert Puentes, Fellow Caution: Challenges Ahead A Review of New Urban Demographics and Impacts on Transportation Eno Foundation Forum on the Future