Vulnerabilities and Challenges: Asia

Transcription

1 Global Development Network GDN 14 th Annual Global Development Conference June 2013 ADB Manila Vulnerabilities and Challenges: Asia Vinod Thomas Director General, Independent Evaluation Asian Development Bank

2 Risks and Vulnerabilities Poverty Global financial crisis Economic Education Maternal health Physical Social Natural disasters Climate change

3 GDP growth % Asia Leads Global Economic Growth Regional Growth Rates: Developing Economies East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Source: WB. WDI.

4 Extreme Poverty is Falling in every Region but High Poverty Levels Remain Regional Poverty Rates (%) East Asia & Pacific Latin America & Caribbean South Asia Europe & Central Asia Middle East & North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa 48% Poverty Numbers 2010 (million) South Asia 31% East Asia & Pacific 12% Source: WB. WDI.

5 Spillover Risks of the Global Economic Crisis Exporters of oil, metals, or minerals Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, and Papua New Guinea Countries that rely heavily on tourism or remittances Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and some of the small island economies Countries with large exports relative to output Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Viet Nam Source: ADB-IED Implications of a Global Financial Crisis for Asia and the ADB: Lessons from Evaluation.

6 Human Development in Asia 1 HDI values: select Asian countries Source: UNDP. HDI.

7 Unequal Opportunities in Education % not completed primary Poorest Quintile Poor Quintile Richest Quintile 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Bhutan 2010 Bangladesh 2011 India 2005 Cambodia 2010 Timor Leste 2009 Indonesia 2007 Source: UNESCO. World Inequality Database on Education.

8 500 99% of Maternal Deaths Occur in Developing Countries Maternal Mortality Ratio (per 100,000 live births) Source: ADB KI 2012.

9 Global Frequency of Intense Hydrometeorological Disasters Drought Earthquake (seismic activity) Extreme temperature Flood Storm Volcano Wildfire Floods Storms *Intense Disaster = Disasters causing at least 100 deaths or affecting at least 1,000 people. Data before 2010 downloaded 28-Dec Data from downloaded Feb Droughts can be multi year. Only the global figure for each country is taken in account Source: Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT).

10 Losses from Asia s Natural Disasters 2011: 90% of global deaths from natural disasters 2011: 80% of the $366 billion losses 2012: over 1,000 deaths in Southern Philippines (Bopha) (on average): 60% of deaths from natural disasters : Disasters with the Highest Economic Losses 2011 Tohoku ($214 bn) 2005 Katrina ($182 bn) 1995 Kobe earthquake ($150 bn) 2008 Sichuan earthquake ($90 bn) 2012 Sandy ($50 bn) 2011 Thailand floods ($46.5 bn)

11 World Risk Report 2012: Asian countries in top 20 highest risk 1. Vanuatu 2. Tonga 3. Philippines 5.Bangladesh 6. Solomon Islands 8. Cambodia 9. Timor Leste 11. Brunei Darussalam 12. Papua New Guinea 15. Fiji 16. Japan 18. Viet Nam Maplecroft 2013:CC Vulnerability Index 7 extreme risk cities are all Asian 1. Dhaka 2. Manila 3. Bangkok 4. Yangon 5. Jakarta 6. Ho Chi Minh 7. Kolkata

12 Structural Vulnerability to Climate Change Index (FERDI) Highest Sea Level Rise Risk: N.Value=100 Over Aridity Risk: N.Value (max=86, ave=41) Rainfall Shocks Risk: N.Value (max=69, ave=42) Temperature Shock Risk: N.Value (max=81, ave=50) Denmark Pacific Island countries Marshall Islands Tuvalu Maldives Kiribati Kazakhstan (86) Central and West Asia Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Kyrgyzstan Azerbaijan Tajikistan Afghanistan Pakistan Mongolia, China India South Asia Bangladesh India Nepal Maldives East Asia Mongolia Korean Pen China Southeast Asia Cambodia Viet Nam Lao PDR Thailand Indonesia Philippines Afghanistan Timor-Leste Pacific Countries Timor-Leste (81) French Polynesia Marshall Islands Tuvalu Tonga Vanuatu Palau

13 Economic Vulnerability Index (UN) Share of population in low elevated coastal zones (>20) Kiribati (100) Maldives (100) Tuvalu (99) Viet Nam, Thailand, Myanmar, Cambodia, Malaysia, Indonesia Bangladesh Tonga, Samoa Victims of Natural Disasters (> 5%) China Cambodia Mongolia Bangladesh Philippines Kiribati Thailand

14 Exposure Vulnerability Hazard Model of Disaster Temperature Anomalies Exposure Greenhouse Gases Climate Change Intense Climate-Related Hazards DISASTER RISK Precipitation Deviations Vulnerability

15 Major Intense Climate-Related Disaster Risk Factors Exposure Population density Vulnerability Real income per capita Poverty incidence Climate hazard Precipitation deviation Temperature anomalies Findings from Thomas, Albert and Perez 2013.

16 Climate Mitigation and Adaptation less No Action All mitigation Cost of adaptation All adaptation more With no action, cost of impact will be unacceptable Adaptation without mitigation will be ineffective But doing mitigation and adaptation optimizes benefits Source: IPCC, 4th Assessment Report.

17 Prevention, Mitigation, and Adaptation Integration of DRR into country programs and strategies Well-coordinated, multi-disciplinary and crosssector strategies Investments in climate mitigation and adaptation, and disaster preventive measures

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