Eurasian Economic Union: prospects and challenges

Transcription

1 Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies Forum Eurasian Economic Union Vienna, November 14, 217 Eurasian Economic Union: prospects and challenges Amat Adarov, Ph.D. Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies

2 Economic content of Eurasian integration Eurasian Customs Union (21),, : Commission of the Customs Union Common external tariff Commodity nomenclature of the EACU Unified customs code No internal customs controls (eff. 211) Economic union CIS FTA (211): Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan Free trade area Customs union Common market Preferential trade agreement 2

3 Economic content of Eurasian integration EACU-Single Economic Space (212) -,, : Customs union Eurasian Economic Commission Four freedoms goods, services, labor, capital Economic union Free trade area Customs union Common market Preferential trade agreement 3

4 Economic content of Eurasian integration Eurasian Economic Union (215),, + + : Customs union (no internal border controls, common external tariff, harmonization of regulations) Four freedoms (goods, services, capital, labour) Coordination of macroeconomic policies Further plans: Common electric power market (219) Common financial market ( ) Common petroleum market (225) Customs union Common market Economic union Free trade area Preferential trade agreement 4

5 EAEU: key figures Population: over 179 million people Territory: over 2 million square km GDP: over 2 trillion USD GDP per capita: USD Labor force: 9,5 million people 1.5 trillion USD industrial production Trade turnover billion USD Евразийский экономический союз Еўразійскі эканамічны саюз Еуразиялық Экономикалық Одақ Евразиялык экономикалык биримдик Եվրասիական տնտեսական միություն 5

6 EAEU: macroeconomic aspects World GDP shares at PPP, avg GDP shares at PPP within the EAEU, avg EAEU-5, 4.1 Armenia,.6% Belarus, 3.9% Kazakhstan, 1.% Kyrgyz Republic,.5% Main channels of spillovers: EU-28, 17.8 Foreign trade (: exports to Russia > 2% of GDP) Remittances (: >23% of GDP, : >13% of GDP) FDI (: >15% of GDP) Exchange rates (devaluation cascade following 214 RUR depreciation) Russia, 85.1% Source: IMF Econometric analysis of macroeconomic spillovers (VAR, GVAR) suggests a 1% change in real GDP growth rate of Russia may invoke the following growth spillovers: Belarus:.5-.6 pp Kazakhstan:.3-.4 pp Armenia:.8 pp Kyrgyzstan:.5 pp 6

7 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, Adarov Amat / EAEU: prospects and challenges EAEU: macroeconomic aspects Real GDP growth rates, (projections: ) 15. Armenia, 3.5 Kyrgyz Republic, Kazakhstan, 3.3 Armenia 5. Belarus. Kazakhstan -5. Kyrgyz Republic Russia -1. Belarus,.7 Russia, (e) 218 (f) Inflation, average consumer prices Armenia Unemployment rate Current account balance Inflation, average consumer prices Belarus Unemployment rate Current account balance Inflation, average consumer prices Kazakhstan Unemployment rate Current account balance Inflation, average consumer prices Kyrgyzstan Unemployment rate Current account balance Inflation, average consumer prices Russia Unemployment rate Current account balance Real GDP per capita, PPP 211 intern. dollars Russia Kyrgyzstan Kazakhstan Belarus Armenia Germany Austria Source: IMF WEO

8 Country composition of exports from the EAEU, 215 Source: Observatory of economic complexity, MIT 8

9 Country composition of imports to the EAEU, 215 Source: Observatory of economic complexity, MIT 9

10 Shares of the EEU countries in mutual intra-eaeu trade, average, mln USD and % of total turnover (exporter-importer) -, 146.9, 3% -, 651.6, 1% -, , 24% -, , 25% -, 561.3, 1% -, , 1% -, , 33% -, 536.1, 1% Source: UN Comtrade 1

11 Adarov Amat / EAEU: prospects and challenges Trade of the EAEU countries with the world, 2-216, mln USD Notes: on the right axis; legend format: exporter-importer EEU WLD WLD EEU WLD -WLD -WLD -WLD -WLD WLD- WLD- WLD- WLD- WLD- Source: UN Comtrade 11

12 Adarov Amat / EAEU: prospects and challenges Trade between the EAEU countries, 2-216, mln USD Notes: on the right axis; legend format: exporter-importer Source: UN Comtrade

13 EAEU common external tariff EAEU common external tariff structure, % Animal & Animal Products Vegetable Products Foodstuffs Mineral Products Chemicals & Allied Plastics / Rubbers Raw Hides, Skins, Wood & Wood Products 5-63 Textiles Footwear / Headgear Stone / Glass Metals Machinery / Electrical Transportation 9-97 Miscellaneous Source: own calculations based on the WTO data for Russia, 215 Tariff rate, MFN, simple mean, % Armenia Belarus Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Tariff rate, applied, weighted mean, % Armenia Belarus Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Russian Federation Russian Federation Allocation of import duties to the budgets of the member states: 1.11%; 4.56%; 7.11%; 1.9%; 85.32% Source: World Bank s WDI. 13

14 Export composition of the EAEU HS2, 215 Adarov Amat / EAEU: prospects and challenges Source: Observatory of economic complexity, MIT 14

15 Import composition of the EAEU HS2, 215 Adarov Amat / EAEU: prospects and challenges Source: Observatory of economic complexity, MIT 15

16 Sectoral competitiveness of the EAEU countries RCA i = x(i) c/x c x(i) W /X W where x(i) is the value of exports of industry i, X is the total value of exports from country c or world (W). A country reveals a comparative advantage in a particular industry i if the RCA index for that industry is greater than unity, i.e. export share of a country in industry is higher than the world average export share for that industry. Source: own calculations based on UN Comtrade data 1-5 Animal & Animal Products 6-15 Vegetable Products Foodstuffs Mineral Products Chemicals & Allied Industries 39-4 Plastics / Rubbers Raw Hides, Skins, Leather, & Furs Wood & Wood Products 5-63 Textiles Footwear / Headgear Stone / Glass Metals Machinery / Electrical Transportation 9-97 Miscellaneous Service

17 The EAEU: institutional quality and competitiveness WEF Global Competitiveness Index, country rank, max = Control of Corruption Year Germany Austria Armenia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Russia Source: World Economic Forum Regulatory Quality Source: World Bank WGI 17

18 Challenges General economic conditions Macroeconomic asymmetries and unfavorable external conditions Specialization in commodities and low value-added sectors Weak institutions, infrastructure and low competitiveness; slow reform progress Intra-EAEU challenges Non-tariff barriers to trade (4-48 items according to an official count of barriers, exemptions and restrictions ) Poor compliance to regulations WTO membership conundrum Country-specific challenges : Difficulties in approximation to the EAEU standards; reexports : no shared border,, : low commodity prices 18

19 Conclusion Long-run growth paradigm needs to be adjusted to the new normal : mitigate the natural resource curse, modernize economies, embark on institutional reforms, improve infrastructure Strengthen the role and enforcement capacity of supranational EAEU institutions Tackle remaining non-tariff barriers to trade, facilitate harmonization of regulations within the bloc along the four freedoms within the bloc Avoid isolationism and undertake a pragmatic approach to integration of integrations: facilitate dialogue along the lines of the EU-EAEU cooperation and China s New Silk Road Initiative Facilitate FDI inflows to tradable sectors and participation in global value chains 19

20 Thank you! Adarov Amat, PhD 2