The outlook for the Gulf projects market

Transcription

1 The outlook for the Gulf projects market The Confederation of Danish Industry s Middle East Day, Copenhagen 7 December, 2011 Angus Hindley, MEED Research Director

2 MEED Insight MEED Insight is a bespoke research service brought to you by the MEED group ( Providing tailor-made research, data and analysis, MEED Insight draws on our data-rich archives and unique relationships with key business decision-makers across the Middle East. OUR EXPERTISE SELECTED REPORTS GCC WASTEWATER 2009 INDUSTRY & SECTOR SCOPING MARKET SURVEYS EVALUATION & FORECASTING MARKET ENTRY STRATEGY PROJECT OVERVIEW & COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS POWER & WATER IN GCC For information on MEED Insight, please contact angus.hindley@meed.com

3 Agenda The impact of the Arab spring The drivers for capital investment in infrastructure The opportunities, challenges and procurement trends The recent performance of the Gulf projects market Closing remarks

4 2011, the year of the Arab spring Revolution and regime change Serious civil unrest Political reforms announced Political reforms announced Minor demonstrations Morocco Tunisia Libya Egypt Syria Jordan Kuwait Bahrain Saudi Arabia Oman Serious civil unrest Revolution and regime change Revolution and regime change Minor demonstrations Yemen Serious civil unrest Minor demonstrations In the GCC, serious political unrest has been confined to, and contained in, Bahrain. In the rest of the Middle East and North Africa, regime change has taken place in three states and civil war in two more

5 The carrot and stick approach in the Gulf GCC troops sent into Bahrain in March 2011 to effectively seal the island state, in a move accompanied by a $10bn aid package Massive pay increases announced for government employees across most of the GCC Major spending programmes announced to remove any potential flashpoints - Saudi Arabia launches 500,000 unit housing programme and new employment rules to create 1.1 million jobs by Oman unveils anti-corruption drive and pledges to create 40,000 jobs a year - the UAE pledges to improve infrastructure in the northern emirates, which is well below the standards in Abu Dhabi and Dubai

6 $ a barrel The high oil price has bankrolled higher spending 120 The oil price, Despite downward revisions, oil prices are expected to remain above the GCC breakeven point of $80-85 a barrel Source: Deutsche Bank

7 % The economic impact of the Arab spring Outside the regime change states of Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, economic growth will rise in 2011 due to increased public spending and higher oil prices GDP growth in selected MENA countries, Egypt Iraq Jordan Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Tunisia UAE Source: IMF

8 % The drivers for increased public expenditure 12 Population growth in selected MENA states, All MENA states have high demographic rates, most notably in Qatar where the population doubled in the five years to Iraq Kuwait Libya Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE Source: IMF

9 Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Abu Dhabi Dubai Iraq MW The need for new capacity Installed and required power capacity in selected Gulf states, In addition to meet increasing demand from expanding populations and economies, there is a growing need to decommission infrastructure which is now at the end of its life having been built in the 1970s and 1980s. 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Installed capacity, 2010 Required total capacity, 2019 Source: MEED Insight

10 The need for new capacity $m Planned water and wastewater spending in the GCC, Over $60bn will be required in the water and wastewater sectors to meet demand, increase capacity and expand network coverage with about half of the investment accounted for by Saudi Arabia 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Water Wastewater Sources: MEED Insight, GWI

11 The need for new capacity Planned transportation projects by GCC state ($m) Aviation Rail Roads Ports Total Bahrain 4,900 7,900 1, ,877 Kuwait 3,389 14,000 8,159 2,660 28,208 Oman 12,604 2,500 9,992 7,928 33,024 Qatar 15,246 36,875 7,167 11,474 70,762 Saudi Arabia 19,567 40,656 4,132 9,100 73,455 UAE 8,732 17,498 25,831 3,783 55,844 Source: MEED Projects Over $275bn of transportation projects are planned with rail accounting for the largest share of the total at $120bn

12 The procurement options New power capacity procured from the private developer market, has been a record year for power capacity contracted from the private developer market, despite only three projects being concluded Source: MEED Insight

13 The procurement options Outside the power and desalination sector, the prospects for private procurement are very mixed Successful PPP type projects have been few and far between in the last two years with the notable exceptions of the Al-Muharraq STP in Bahrain and Medina airport in Saudi Arabia Abu Dhabi has effectively abandoned the approach for its social infrastructure programme, as well on flagship transportation projects such as the midfield terminal and Mafraq-Ghuweifat highway Kuwait s Partnerships Technical Bureau (PTB) has over 30 large-scale infrastructure projects planned as PPPs but much will depend on how the Al- Zour north IWPP proceeds National Water Company (NWC) is revisiting the BOT model for its $30bn capital investment programme, with the aim of tendering its first project in 2013

14 Issues facing private procurement GCC governments are cash rich, having benefitted from 10- years of rising oil prices Projected budget surpluses in selected GCC states, ($bn) The global credit crunch, and subsequent Eurozone crisis, has hit the GCC project finance market The perceived high cost of PPPs against conventional procurement The often lengthy time taken to deliver a PPP Kuwait Qatar Oman Saudi Arabia Source: MEED Insight

15 The recent performance of the Gulf projects market Major contract awards in the Gulf, * 2010* 2011* Bahrain Iraq Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE * first nine months Source: MEED Projects Saudi Arabia has maintained its position as the largest projects market in the MENA region in 2011 while Iraq has seen the biggest growth

16 The challenges facing the Gulf market Intense competition for new work, driven by the downturn in the UAE and companies entering the region for the first time Lower margins and potentially rising subcontractor and equipment costs in selected markets Slow decision-making in some markets particularly in Abu Dhabi Increased risk being placed on the shoulders of contractors Growing pressure to be local, especially in Oman and Saudi Arabia

17 Bahrain Iraq Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE $bn The opportunities on offer in the Gulf 300 Planned and unawarded projects in the Gulf, November 2011 ($bn) 250 An estimated $1.1tn of project work is at the planning, design or tendering stage in the Gulf Source: MEED Projects

18 The opportunities on offer Planned and unawarded projects in the Gulf by sector, November 2011 ($bn) 130 Infrastructure and construction projects will account for the majority of future work in the Gulf followed by oil and gas Oil & gas Construction Infrastructure Others Source: MEED Projects

19 Closing Remarks The outlook for the Gulf construction sector is reasonable, considering the Arab spring, the global economic downturn and the European financial crisis The engine of growth will be infrastructure, which will be largely government-financed, provided oil prices remain above the critical $80 threshold Saudi Arabia will be the most important market, with Iraq and Kuwait having potential for strong growth Competition for new work will remain intense and bureaucratic, localisation and security/political issues will have to be overcome in some markets Keys to contractor success will be a long-term commitment to the region, competitive pricing and a willingness to go increasingly local

20 For more information on this presentation or any MEED services, please contact: Angus Hindley, Research Director, MEED Mob: