ONS mid-2012 population estimates

Transcription

1 ONS mid-2012 population estimates October 2013 Introduction The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released their mid-2012 population estimates for England & Wales and respective authorities on 26 June These cover the year to 30 June 2012 and take the mid-2011 Census-based population estimates (released 25 September 2012) as their base. ONS also released detailed components of change which provide estimated numbers of births, deaths and migration for the period mid to mid This Update compares the mid-2012 population estimates (2012 MYE) and components of change with three sets of population projections. These are: ONS 2011 sub-national population projections (SNPP) 1 released in September 2012 further information and analysis can be found in Intelligence Update GLA 2012 round SHLAA-based population projections released in December 2012 can be downloaded from the London Datastore GLA 2012 round trend-based population projections released in December 2012 can be downloaded from the London Datastore All three sets of population projections use the mid-2011 Census-based population estimates as their base. However, the GLA highlighted concerns with the methodology used by ONS for the 2011 SNPP which results in anomalies for a number of local authorities in London. These issues occurred due to fertility, mortality and migration rates being calculated using mid-year population projections that were released prior to the Census updated population backseries. This Update considers the following areas: Population; Births; Deaths; and Migration. 1 The 2011 SNPP have been provided by ONS rounded to the nearest hundred. GLA Intelligence 1

2 Key findings The 2012 MYE gave London s population to be 8.31 million for the year ending June This is 24,076 people lower than projected by the 2011 SNPP for the same period. Natural change (births minus deaths) accounted for the greatest proportion of population growth under all four estimates/projections. There were 693,892 births in England according to the 2012 MYE compared to the 2011 SNPP projection of 728,994. For London, the 2012 MYE estimated 134,037 births. The GLA s population projections (SHLAA and trend-based) projected 134,152 births while the 2011 SNPP projected a much higher figure of 145,223. The number of births projected by the 2011 SNPP was over 1,100 higher than the 2012 MYE in Newham, Brent and Hackney. The number of deaths in London rose slightly according to the 2012 MYE reflecting an increasing number of older people in the population. The 2012 MYE include a migration and other changes 2 category accounting for 17,495 people in London. Net internal migration for London varies between the 2012 MYE and the 2011 SNPP by nearly 15,000 people. The 2011 SNPP projected net internal migration for London to be -14,103 compared to the 2012 MYE figure of -8,359. The 2011 SNPP net international migration figure for London at 11,746 is considerably higher than the 2012 MYE of 6,829. Although the migration and other changes category in the 2012 MYE may account for some of this difference. 2 Migration and other changes include internal migration within England and Wales; migration to and from other parts of the UK; and international migration. It also includes changes to the size of armed forces and prison populations and other, small, adjustments. GLA Intelligence 2

3 Population Figure 1 shows that the 2012 MYE gave the population of London to be 8.31 million for the year ending June This is considerably lower than the 8.33 million people projected by the 2011 SNPP and also lower than the GLA s trend-based projections at 8.32 million. The GLA s SHLAA-based projections are the closest to the mid-2012 estimates at 8.30 million, some six thousand people lower. Figure 1: Population, London, mid-2012 Population estimate (mid-2012) Millions MYE SNPP 2011 GLA SHLAA GLA Trend Table 1 gives the mid-2011 population and the population for mid-2012 according to the 2012 MYE, 2011 SNPP and both sets of GLA population projections by local authority. The table also shows the population change between mid-2011 and mid-2012 based on the different data sources. GLA Intelligence 3

4 Table 1: Population, London boroughs, mid-2011 and mid-2012 Population Growth compared to mid-2011 Mid-2011 MYE SNPP GLA SHLAA GLA Trend MYE SNPP GLA SHLAA GLA Trend City of London 7,412 7,604 8,039 7,554 7, Barking and Dagenham 187, , , , ,884 3,531 4,541 4,402 3,855 Barnet 357, , , , ,984 6,418 6,548 8,819 5,446 Bexley 232, , , , ,772 1,497 2, ,998 Brent 312, , , , ,531 2,415 2,151 3,635 4,286 Bromley 310, , , , ,230 3,482 3,839 1,576 2,676 Camden 220, , , , ,809 4,875 5,804 1,741 3,722 Croydon 364, , , , ,411 4,071 2,973 4,109 4,596 Ealing 339, , , , ,971 1,357 4,041 2,703 3,657 Enfield 313, , , , ,536 3,352 5,401 1,256 4,601 Greenwich 255, , , , ,800 4,585 1,508 7,193 2,317 Hackney 247, , , , ,329 4,937 2,338 3,427 3,147 Hammersmith and Fulham 182, , , , ,427-2, , Haringey 255, , , , ,806 3,372 3,504 3,322 3,266 Harrow 240, , , , ,172 1,878 3,592 1,467 2,673 Havering 237, , , , ,285 1,806 2,799 2,807 2,358 Hillingdon 275, , , , ,980 6,257 4,923 2,228 4,481 Hounslow 254, , , , ,441 4,125 4,781 1,271 4,514 Islington 206, , , , ,927 4,762 4,594 3,061 4,642 Kensington and Chelsea 158, , , , ,567-2, Kingston upon Thames 160, , , , ,942 3,470 4, ,506 Lambeth 304, , , , ,503 5,719 3,272 3,661 4,022 Lewisham 276, , , , ,804 4,618 4,688 3,701 3,866 Merton 200, , , , ,247 1,682 4,969 1,097 2,704 Newham 310, , , , ,533 3,624 3,965 9,054 7,073 Redbridge 281, , , , ,311 3,222 6,012 2,325 4,916 Richmond upon Thames 187, , , , ,280 1,618 2, ,753 Southwark 288, , , , ,550 4,813 7,787 4,953 4,833 Sutton 191, , , , ,557 2,507 2, ,434 Tower Hamlets 256, , , , ,723 6,991 7,282 7,201 6,711 Waltham Forest 259, , , , ,801 2,824 3,443 2,529 4,059 Wandsworth 307, , , , , ,705 2,775 3,269 Westminster 219, , , , ,395 4,276 5,606 2,254 2,813 Greater London 8,204,407 8,308,369 8,332,445 8,302,319 8,318, , ,038 97, ,644 GLA Intelligence 4

5 Population change Comparing population projections and estimates for mid-2011 and mid-2012 for the four different data sources allows the population change between the years to be calculated. All three sets of population projections use the same base data for their 2011 population as the 2012 MYE, a population of 8.20 million people in London in June Figure 2 shows the estimates for 2012 from each of the three population projections and the MYE 2012 estimate for London. The 2011 SNPP projected the greatest level of growth at 128,000 people over the year with the GLA SHLAA-based projections forecasting the lowest at 98,000 people. The 2012 MYE estimate that London s population grew by nearly 104,000 people over the year to mid For all four sets of data, natural change (births minus deaths) accounted for the greatest proportion of population growth. This ranged from nearly 86,500 for the 2012 MYE to 97,600 for the 2011 SNPP. Net migration also varied with the GLA SHLAA-based projections giving this to be less than 10,000 compared to 17,495 under the 2012 MYE and 29,300 under the 2011 SNPP. Net migration as a percentage of overall growth varies, ranging from 10.1 per cent of the GLA SHLAA-based projections to 23.1 per cent for the 2011 SNPP. Figure 2: Components of population growth, London, mid-2011 to mid ,000 Components of population growth ( ) 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 17,495 86,467 29,300 97,600 9,896 25,628 88,016 88, MYE SNPP 2011 GLA SHLAA GLA Trend Natural change Net migration GLA Intelligence 5

6 Births The 2012 MYE estimates that there were 693,892 births in England in year to end June This is considerably lower than the 728,994 births projected by the 2011 SNPP for the same period, a difference of more than 35,100 births. Figure 3 shows the number of births each year between mid-2001 and mid-2012 for London. It also shows the SNPP 2011 and GLA SHLAA and trend-based birth projections for mid In London alone the difference in the number of births between the 2012 MYE and the 2011 SNPP is over 11,100 with the latter projecting 145,223 births compared to the mid-2012 estimate of only 134,037 births. The mid-2012 population estimates and both sets of GLA population projections projected similar numbers of births in London for 2012 of some 134,000. As outlined in Update the higher numbers of births projected by the 2011 SNPP are undermined by the methodology used by ONS in the calculation of age-specific fertility rates. Figure 3: Number of births, London, mid-2001 to mid , , ,000 Number of births 135, , , , , , , ,000 Time period MYE SNPP 2011 GLA SHLAA and GLA Trend Table 2 gives the number of births by local authority for London taken from the 2011 SNPP, the mid-2012 population estimates and both the GLA SHLAA and trend-based population projections. It also gives the difference between these birth numbers and those from the 2012 MYE. 3 The number of births projected by both the GLA SHLAA and trend-based birth projections are the same for mid GLA Intelligence 6

7 Table 2: Number of births, London boroughs, mid-2012 Number of births 2012 MYE 2011 SNPP GLA SHLAA and GLA Trend Difference in births (mid-2012 estimates minus other source) 2011 SNPP GLA SHLAA and GLA Trend City of London Barking and Dagenham 3,797 3,939 3, Barnet 5,650 5,976 5, Bexley 3,160 3,187 3, Brent 5,312 6,573 5,384-1, Bromley 4,139 4,058 4, Camden 3,085 3,045 3, Croydon 5,790 6,207 5, Ealing 5,727 6,423 5, Enfield 5,017 5,677 4, Greenwich 4,598 5,227 4, Hackney 4,445 5,635 4,342-1, Hammersmith and Fulham 2,716 3,399 2, Haringey 4,190 4,962 4, Harrow 3,530 3,623 3, Havering 2,933 2,938 2, Hillingdon 4,459 4,382 4, Hounslow 4,671 4,726 4, Islington 2,945 3,272 3, Kensington and Chelsea 2,064 2,575 2, Kingston upon Thames 2,306 2,243 2, Lambeth 4,833 5,718 4, Lewisham 4,940 5,288 4, Merton 3,507 3,445 3, Newham 6,467 7,786 6,436-1, Redbridge 4,769 4,643 4, Richmond upon Thames 2,980 2,982 2, Southwark 5,028 5,504 5, Sutton 2,835 2,687 2, Tower Hamlets 4,710 4,958 4, Waltham Forest 4,892 5,695 4, Wandsworth 5,478 5,660 5, Westminster 3,008 2,737 3, Greater London 134, , ,152-11, GLA Intelligence 7

8 The biggest differences can be seen between the 2011 SNPP birth projections and the mid-2012 birth estimates. For London as a whole this difference is 11,186 births. Three boroughs have more than a thousand extra births under the 2011 SNPP projections when compared to the mid-2012 estimates. These are: Newham (1,319 more births); Brent (1,261) and Hackney (1,190). At the London level, the GLA projections are exceptionally close to the mid-2012 estimates though some larger differences exist at local authority level. The GLA projections are 115 births higher than the mid estimates with the largest difference in Southwark (226 more births than the mid-2012 estimates). Figure 5 shows the numbers of births by borough for the different sources. From this figure it is clear that in most instances the 2011 SNPP projected much higher numbers of births than the 2012 MYE show there to have been. As outlined above Newham was projected by the 2011 SNPP to have 1,319 more births than was the case (Figure 4). This is equal to the 2011 SNPP projecting 20.3 per cent more births. Both sets of GLA projections projected only slightly lower numbers of births than was the case at 6,436 births when compared to the mid-2012 estimate of 6,467 births; a difference of 31 births. Figure 4: Number of births, Newham, mid-2001 to mid ,000 7,500 7,000 Number of births 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 Time period MYE SNPP 2011 GLA SHLAA and GLA Trend GLA Intelligence 8

9 Figure 5: Number of births, London boroughs, mid ,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 No. of births (2012) 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 MYE 2012 SNPP 2011 GLA SHLAA and GLA Trend Sources: ONS 2011-based interim SNPP, 2012; ONS mid-2012 population estimates, 2013; GLA 2012 round of SHLAA and trend-based GLA Intelligence 9

10 In some boroughs, such as Westminster, the SNPP underestimated births compared to the 2012 MYE. Again, this is linked to the SNPP methodology outlined in Update Figure 6 illustrates that the 2011 SNPP projected 271 fewer births (2,737 births in total) than the 2012 MYE of 3,008 births. Both sets of GLA projections projected higher numbers of births (74 more births) than the 2012 MYE at 3,082 births. Figure 6: Number of births, Westminster, mid-2001 to mid ,200 3,000 Number of births 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 Time period MYE SNPP 2011 GLA SHLAA and GLA Trend GLA Intelligence 10

11 Deaths Figure 7 shows a downward trend in the number of deaths in London between mid-2002 and mid-2012 from 57,360 deaths in mid-2002 to just over 46,900 in mid The 2012 MYE show that the number of deaths rose slightly to 47,570; an increase of 642. As can be seen in Table 3, the GLA population projections projected the number of deaths to continue falling to reach just over 46,130 in mid-2012, some 1,430 deaths lower than was the case. The 2011 SNPP was more accurate at the London level projecting the number of deaths to be just 50 higher than the 2012 MYE. However this does mask inaccuracies at lower levels, for instance, the 2011 SNPP projected 193 more deaths in Camden than the 2012 MYE and 168 fewer in Croydon. Figure 7: Number of deaths, London, mid-2002 to mid ,000 60,000 Number of births 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Time period Historical deaths SNPP 2011 GLA SHLAA and GLA Trend GLA Intelligence 11

12 Table 3: Number of deaths, London boroughs, mid-2012 Number of deaths 2012 MYE 2011 SNPP GLA SHLAA and GLA Trend Difference in deaths (mid-2012 estimates minus other source) 2011 SNPP GLA SHLAA and GLA Trend City of London Barking and Dagenham 1,285 1,237 1, Barnet 2,315 2,262 2, Bexley 1,893 1,871 1, Brent 1,556 1,495 1, Bromley 2,593 2,512 2, Camden 1,094 1,287 1, Croydon 2,453 2,285 2, Ealing 1,900 1,829 1, Enfield 1,928 1,921 1, Greenwich 1,583 1,623 1, Hackney 1,055 1,009 1, Hammersmith and Fulham Haringey 1,161 1,205 1, Harrow 1,439 1,469 1, Havering 2,176 2,210 2, Hillingdon 1,832 1,789 1, Hounslow 1,422 1,502 1, Islington 1,034 1, Kensington and Chelsea Kingston upon Thames 1,014 1,058 1, Lambeth 1,369 1,464 1, Lewisham 1,489 1,657 1, Merton 1,202 1,109 1, Newham 1,295 1,373 1, Redbridge 1,740 1,770 1, Richmond upon Thames 1,174 1,176 1, Southwark 1,298 1,252 1, Sutton 1,358 1,421 1, Tower Hamlets 1,063 1,046 1, Waltham Forest 1,458 1,584 1, Wandsworth 1,515 1,558 1, Westminster 1, , Greater London 47,570 47,624 46, ,434 GLA Intelligence 12

13 Migration All four data sets include a component for net migration which includes both internal and international migration. The three projections also include other forms of migration in the net total while the 2012 MYE splits these out into a separate group called Other changes 4. For London, the other migration category accounts for 17,495 people in the 2012 MYE. As a result comparisons between the net migration data from the projections must be made with the 2012 MYE migration plus other changes. Figures taken from the 2012 MYE can be seen in Table 4. For the GLA SHLAA-based projections no further analysis on the split of internal and international migration has been undertaken as it is not possible to obtain these from the model. Internal migration All four datasets show negative values for net internal migration (more people leaving London than inmigrating). Net internal migration varies by nearly 15,000 from some -51,660 based on the 2012 MYE to -66,600 based on the 2011 SNPP projections. The GLA s trend-based projections are closer to the 2012 MYE at -56,190. Figure 8 compares net internal migration for all London boroughs with the majority showing net internal migration to be negative. From this it can be seen that the 2011 SNPP had the lowest levels of net internal migration for mid-2012 for a number of boroughs, particularly Brent, Hackney, Lambeth and Newham. In Newham, the 2011 SNPP gave net internal migration as -14,103 people indicating that a considerably greater number of people moved from Newham to elsewhere in the country (including other London boroughs) than moved in. However net migration for both the 2012 MYE and the GLA trend-based projections is -8,300 and -9,400 people respectively. This is some 5,000 lower than projected by the 2011 SNPP. For five boroughs (Bexley, Camden, Kingston upon Thames, Redbridge and Westminster) the 2011 SNPP showed net internal migration to be positive whereas the other two sources showed the opposite. International migration There is a difference of over 27,230 between the 2012 MYE for London for net international migration and the 2011 SNPP; the latter having the higher figure of 96,206. As with internal migration, the GLA s trendbased figure falls between the two at just over 81,800. Figure 9 shows that there are large differences between sources with respect to net international migration for certain boroughs but no clear trend overall. The 2012 MYE gives net international migration for Newham to be just over 6,800 people; some 5,000 lower than either the 2011 SNPP or GLA trend-based projections which give numbers of 11,746 and 11,217 respectively. A similar pattern is evident for both Brent and Southwark where the 2012 MYE figures for net international migration are considerably lower than the other two sources. Kensington & Chelsea is the only borough for which net international migration shows as negative for all three sources. Hammersmith & Fulham and Wandsworth both also have negative net international migration according to the 2012 MYE whereas under the other two sources this shows as positive. 4 Other changes include internal migration within England and Wales, migration to and from other parts of the UK; and international migration. It also includes changes to the size of armed forces and prison populations and other, small, adjustments. GLA Intelligence 13

14 Table 4: International migration and other, London, mid-2012 (MYE 2012) International migration Inflows Outflows Net Other changes Migration & other changes City of London Barking and Dagenham 2, , ,019 Barnet 6,766 2,861 3, ,083 Bexley Brent 8,046 5,172 2, Bromley 1, ,936 Camden 11,948 6,763 5, ,884 Croydon 3,547 2,068 1, Ealing 7,243 5,494 1, ,470 Enfield 3,253 1,367 1, Greenwich 4,675 2,108 2, ,570 Hackney 4,517 3,097 1, ,547 Hammersmith and Fulham 5,110 7,615-2, ,415 Haringey 6,797 2,825 3, Harrow 3,134 1,440 1, Havering ,049 Hillingdon 5,072 1,573 3, ,630 Hounslow 4,896 2,065 2, Islington 8,440 4,103 4, ,851 Kensington and Chelsea 4,559 5,870-1, ,556 Kingston upon Thames 3,400 1,262 2, ,178 Lambeth 7,405 4,710 2, ,255 Lewisham 4,704 2,086 2, ,167 Merton 3,170 3, Newham 12,371 5,542 6, ,548 Redbridge 4,309 1,932 2, Richmond upon Thames 1,832 2, Southwark 7,758 4,479 3, ,083 Sutton ,030 Tower Hamlets 10,616 5,590 5, ,344 Waltham Forest 6,098 2,825 3, Wandsworth 5,973 7,567-1, ,361 Westminster 13,419 7,820 5, ,383 Greater London 176, ,386 68, ,495 GLA Intelligence 14

15 Figure 8: Net internal migration, London boroughs, mid ,000 City of London Barking and Dagenham Barnet Bexley Brent Bromley Camden Croydon Ealing Enfield Greenwich Hackney Hammersmith and Fulham Haringey Harrow Havering Hillingdon Hounslow Islington Kensington and Chelsea Kingston upon Thames Lambeth Lewisham Merton Newham Redbridge Richmond upon Thames Southwark Sutton Tower Hamlets Waltham Forest Wandsworth Westminster 2,000 0 Net internal migration (mid-2012) -2,000-4,000-6,000-8,000-10,000-12,000-14,000-16,000 Mid-2012 SNPP 2011 GLA Trend Sources: ONS 2011-based interim SNPP, 2012; ONS mid-2012 population estimates, 2013; GLA 2012 round of trend-based GLA Intelligence 15

16 Figure 9: Net international migration, London boroughs, mid ,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, ,000-4,000 City of London Barking and Dagenham Barnet Bexley Net internal migration (mid-2012) Brent Bromley Camden Croydon Ealing Enfield Greenwich Hackney Hammersmith and Fulham Haringey Harrow Havering Hillingdon Hounslow Islington Kensington and Chelsea Kingston upon Thames Lambeth Lewisham Merton Newham Redbridge Richmond upon Thames Southwark Sutton Tower Hamlets Waltham Forest Wandsworth Westminster Mid-2012 SNPP 2011 GLA Trend Sources: ONS 2011-based interim SNPP, 2012; ONS mid-2012 population estimates, 2013; GLA 2012 round of trend-based GLA Intelligence 16

17 For more information please contact GLA Intelligence Monica Li, Greater London Authority, City Hall, The Queen s Walk, More London, London SE1 2AA Tel: monica.li@london.gov.uk Copyright Greater London Authority, 2013