Ethiopia and Its Regional Diplomacy: Ethiopia s Dominant Interpretation of the IGAD

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1 Ethiopia and Its Regional Diplomacy: Ethiopia s Dominant Interpretation of the IGAD Mehari Taddele Maru (DLS) October, 2014 SAIIA Pretoria, South Africa

2 Contextualizing the region Talking Points What makes Ethiopia pivotal state? Why dominant interpretation of the HoA? What makes Ethiopia s interpretation of the Horn dominant? What are the internal political dynamics dictating Ethiopia s foreign policies? What are the foundations and principles underpinning the Ethiopian Foreign Affairs and National Security Policy and Strategy (FANSPS)? What are the internal core foundations of Ethiopian foreign policy that determine its regional and global diplomacy and vice-versa? Who are the institutions that drive and exercise mandates related to regional diplomacy? What are the strengths and shortcomings of FANSPS and Ethiopian regional diplomacy? What recommendations for policy consideration?

3 Contextualizing the region 60,000 peace keeping troops and few thousand foreign troops 13,000 Ethiopian troops Stateless Somalia and Al Shabaab Fragmented Sudan Divided South Sudan Precarious Kenya and Al Shabaab Region of secessions: Sudan, Eritrea, Somalia Potential for Statelessness: Abyei, Somaliland Increases Internal Displacement while External Displacement (Refugees) decrease 4.6 IDPs host 1.8 million refugees 12 percent global total produces 1.9 million refugees 13 percent Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea largest producers Kenya and Ethiopia largest hosts

4 Contextualizing the region Horn Futures More localized conflicts delivery and democracy More attraction to peripheral areas ---and Mega Cities Peripheries become centres--oil and mineral exploration and exploitation By 2050 IGAD -400 million population from 226 million-now By 2020, Ethiopia -100 million and by million More than 55 per cent of this population will be young age (below 20 years) Slow but increasing in connectivity--2% of Africans Army of unemployed youth Also highly connected, conversant, mobile and vocal Urbanized population of 54% --- today s figure of 38% Mega cities difficult to govern and without service Income gap and associated social unrest Aspiration and demand for development and legitimacy

5 Membership History of continuity: divergence and convergence of three regimes Membership AU, IGAD, COMESA,UN Most of Ethiopia s regional interests through the support of IGAD Ethiopia as the fulcrum of a stable IGAD region Attracts significant interest from western and eastern powers in Ethiopia s role in the IGAD region and beyond

6 Factors for Pivotal Role of Ethiopia Ethiopia s pivotal role within the IGAD, and to a limited extent in the AU, will continue to grow due to the following seven reasons: (1) Ethiopia s inward looking foreign and national security policy orientation and effort to address longstanding internal political instability: developmental delivery, and group rights Heavyweight in regional peace and security A major weakness Lack of readiness to seize economic and trade opportunities in the region Lack of readiness to border war with Eritrea

7 Factors behind Pivotal Role of Ethiopia (2) Ethiopia's recent promising economic performance offers hope for its people and externally draws aid, trade and investment. President Obama exemplary among the bright spots and progress in leading the pack in terms of agricultural production in the region, renewable power. Public investment led economy increased Ethiopia s image as integrative regional force from which lessons on developmental state leadership could be learned.

8 Factors behind Pivotal Role of Ethiopia (3) Ethiopia's military strength and role in regional peace and security Fire power index, Ethiopia's ranked 1 st in Sub-Saharan Africa, 3 rd (after Egypt and Algeria) in Africa, 40 th in the world Globally 1 st in peacekeeping troop contribution-excellent track record troops, in IGAD Creates demands for long-term partnerships and alliances in the region and beyond. President Obama in discussions with Ban Ki-moon yesterday it turns out that Ethiopia may be one of the best in the world -- one of the largest contributors of peacekeeping; one of the most effective fighting forces when it comes to being placed in some very difficult situations and helping to resolve conflicts.

9 Three Military Options for Somalia 9

10 Factors behind Pivotal Role of Ethiopia (4) Ethiopia in IGAD and AU: Trusted mediator Since the Nigerian Biafra civil war 1972 The Addis Ababa Agreement 1994 Declaration of Principles (DOP) 2002, the GoS and SPLM/A signed the CPA Leading and trusted mediator: HIP, UNISFA, and IGAD Overlapping interest and alliance almost all international and regional actors, IGAD, AU, USA, EU, China, India, and the UN Unpredictable: Uganda and SA

11 Factors behind Pivotal Role of Ethiopia (5) Ethiopia's role in combating terrorism and strong counter-terrorism capabilities A victim of terrorism-genuine and strong military ally in the fight against terrorism An overlapping interest, all African, Western and Eastern countries partner with Ethiopia Appreciated in COIN Strategy exemplary AMISOM to ISIS President Obama said, That's an area where the cooperation and leadership on the part of Ethiopia is making a difference as we speak. So our counterterrorism cooperation and the partnerships that we have formed with countries like Ethiopia are going to be critical to our overall efforts to defeat terrorism.

12 Denying breeding ground Message and Deeds of Hope Military and Criminal Justice Measures Supporters Neutral Oppose

13 Multiple Intervention Points Transnational Threats and International Crimes

14 Factors behind Pivotal Role of Ethiopia (6) With its Pan Africanist historical legacy, Ethiopia has increased its effective use of multilateral platforms. Nelson Mandela, Ethiopia s historical background as the seedbed for Pan- Africanism Fundamental tenets of the Ethiopian Movement were self-worth, self-reliance and freedom. These tenets drew the advocates of Ethiopianism, like a magnet, to the growing political movement. That political movement was to culminate in the formation of the ANC in It is in this sense that the ANC, we, trace the seeds of the formation of our organisation to the Ethiopian Movement of the 1890s.

15 Factors behind Pivotal Role of Ethiopia (7) Leadership in the Pan Africanist platforms Chairs or chaired: IGAD, NEPAD, represented in the G7, G20 and World Climate Change Summit

16 Internal and External Threats Internal Threat: Extreme Poverty and Political Instability One of the world s poorest countries Ethiopia's per capita income lower by 1100 USD than the Sub-Saharan African Commonly agreed level of GDP growth rate of 8.7 % 17 percent (or $80) of per capita income from international aid But. Among the top five fastest growth, continue for coming 40 years likely to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) lifted 20 percent of the population out of poverty in 15 years 20 million children enrolled. 20 yrs life expectancy Infrastructure, Agriculture, Education massive expansion Surge in domestic revenue generation Extreme poverty will remain Ethiopia s main threat to peace and security

17 Critical Internal Threat Transformation outpacing crisis? or Crisis outpacing Reform? Transformation Crisis

18 Internal and External Threats Internal Threat: Political Instability 1) Federalism as a responsive mechanism to conflict: sectarian to progressive (integrative and human rights respect) Pulled by two extremely opposed forces: centripetal drifts and centrifugal disintegrative forces (more decentralization) 2) History of violence, politics of fear and fear of politics, politics of resentment, politics of hate: National Dialogue and Reconciliation, balancing delivery with democracy 3) Income Inequality and corruption: Inclusive Development and strong judicial actions 4) Increasing Radicalization: Politics-led CVE 5) Weak Democratic Institutions: strong peace and security architectures with strong governance architecture

19 Internal and External Threats 4) External Threats: Troubled Region, Terrorism, Eritrean Aggression and Geopolitical Rivalry Terrorist and Expansionist Threats: Ethiopia and Its Diplomatic and Military Role in Somalia Since 1977, Siad Barre invaded the Ogaden region of Ethiopia Somalia s statelessness, Al Itihad, UIC, Al Shabaab Attacks to Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda and beyond Syria, ISIS, Ethiopia intervention in 2006 Vital role in TFG, FGS AMISOM ConOps Military Strategy: politics ahead of military Political strategy: peace from pieces The UNSC sanctions against Al Shabaab and Eritrea

20 Internal and External Threats 4) External Threats: Troubled Region, Terrorism, Eritrean Aggression and Geopolitical Rivalry Border and Proxy War with Eritrea: Military, Economic and Diplomatic Isolation of Eritrea EPRDF s support to Eritrea, Political Cost On 21 May 1998 border invasion by Eritrea No single Ethiopian brigade a long a border of 912 kms Ethiopia retook the territory EEBC Bademe awarded to Eritrea Loss of Bademe -legitimacy for both regimes in Addis Ababa and Asmara Eritrea withdraw from IGAD and the AU Eritrea s strategy proxy war in Somalia Asmera the Mecca of all rebel groups UNSC sanctions

21 Internal and External Threats 4) External Threats: Troubled Region, Terrorism, Eritrean Aggression and Geopolitical Rivalry The Nile Rivalry: Implications for Peace, Development and the Foreign Policy of Ethiopia Egypt demands: historical rights to Nile waters from colonial-era treaties veto power on projects by the other riparian s quota of bcm NBI, CFA, NRBC, The Dam-transformational Ethiopia instrumental for NBI, CFA, NRBC

22 Foreign Policy Core Foundations The Underpinnings of Ethiopia s Foreign Policy: Stability, Peace and Development Institutional and Personal Drivers of Ethiopia s Foreign Policy Office of the Prime Minister (OPM) Minister of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) Ministry of Defense (MoD) Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS) National Security Council (NSC)

23 MOFA: Management and Capabilities 4 ministers: minister, state minister-political, state minister for business diplomacy, state minister for support functions 50 diplomatic missions (40 embassies and 10 consulates) 820 staff members and diplomats Budget of USD 62, 841, 121, 10 % increase every year Functional allocation of resources on Mission 71 % budget 38 % staff members 60 % diplomats Gender balance 35 % female staff members only 22 percent Ethiopian diplomats

24 Policy Gaps and Capacity Limitations Internal development on the socio-economic and political fronts Excessive inward looking foreign policy perspective of FANSPS Weak in seizing the opportunities created by globalization Does not proactively seek, identify and seize regional opportunities Understates the potential threats to a landlocked country-126 million

25 Conclusion Ethiopia is anchor state in the region due to: Inward looking foreign policy that internalized Ethiopia s historical legacy Large population Strategic geographic location Military strength Promising economic performance Ambitious leaders with Pan-African inclination

26 Conclusion Critical Factors dictate Ethiopia s foreign policy and regional diplomacy Poverty Internal political stability Economic development and meeting demand for surge in consumption: water, energy, food, climate The Nile River Access to the sea and port services The Troubles in the Region and Transnational threats

27 Conclusion If Reform outpaces Crisis, Ethiopia: Will continue to be a force of peace and security Will have robust economic integrative role but public sector investment Expanding soft power Alliance will increase in West and East--UNSC and EU, China, India, Turkey Continuity of alliance Kenya, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Sudan, Somalia and Sudan The active role of Ethiopia in peace and security will bestow power to influence Will bring enormous additional diplomatic responsibility: balancing interests

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