Armenian National Study

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1 Armenian National Study December 9, 00 International Republican Institute, Baltic Surveys Ltd. / The Gallup Organization, Armenian Sociological Association with funding from the United States Agency for International Development

2 INFORMATION ABOUT THE SURVEY This national representative survey was conducted on December December 9, 00, by the Armenian Sociological Association (ASA) for Baltic Surveys/Gallup on behalf of the International Republican Institute. The sample consisted of,00 Armenian residents over the age of 8 and eligible to vote and is representative of the general population by age, gender, education and religion. The sample design was a multi-stage random sample. Stage One: Break country into official administrative regions. Stage Two: Select clusters of sampling points based on settlement population (large, medium, small towns and villages). One sample point = approximately one percent of survey population (0- surveys). Sampling points in each region were selected based on the percentage of population living in the various levels of settlement in that same region. Respondents were selected by the random route method, using the next birthday rule to select a respondent from within a household. Data is collected through face-to-face interviews with the respondents. Poll was conducted nationwide, including the capital and all major regional centers. The margin of error does not exceed three percent. The rate of response was 9 percent. IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, December 00

3 SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHICS IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, December 00

4 Gender Male % Female % 0+ % Age Groups 8-9 % 0-9 % IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, December 00

5 Religion Other % Armenian Apostolic 9% Once a month % Attendance of Religious Service Once a week 8% A few times a week % Every day % Never 8% A few times per year 8% IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, December 00

6 Nongovernmental % Sector of Employment Don't work 9% State % Private % Member of nongovernmental organization % Membership in Organizations None 89% Member of a party 0% IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, December 00

7 Capital % Type of Settlement Rural % Towns 0% Yerevan % Regions West-Center 0% South % North % East % IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, December 00

8 MOOD OF THE COUNTRY IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, December 00 8

9 Generally speaking, do you think that things in Armenia are going in the right direction or the wrong direction? Right direction Wrong direction Don't know, no answer Dec 00 0 Oct Jul Mar 00 0 Nov Aug 00 May IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, December 00 9

10 Over the last three months, the economic situation in Armenia has...? Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know, no answer Dec Oct 00 9 Jul Mar Nov 00 0 Aug 00 9 May IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, December 00 0

11 Over the last three months, the financial situation of your household has...? Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know, no answer Dec 00 9 Oct Jul Mar Nov Aug 00 0 May IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, December 00

12 How satisfied are you with the way democracy is developing in Armenia? Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied DK/NA Dec 00 Oct 00 Jul 00 Mar Nov Aug May IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, December 00

13 ISSUES IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, December 00

14 What are the main problems Armenia is facing at the moment? Unemployment Overall socio-economic situation Nagorno Karabakh* Stagnation in pensions/salaries Corruption Slow economic/industrial development Migration Recognition of genocide Poor implementation of laws Educational issues, culture Poorly conceived domestic policies Blockade from Turkey Poorly conceived foreign policies Inability to change government Instability Other DK/NA IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, December First mention All mentions * - Between 99-99, Armenia and Azerbaijan engaged in armed conflict over this disputed territory.

15 What are the main problems that your town/village is facing at the moment? Unemployment 9 Transport, road conditions 9 8 Sanitation Housing, communal services 8 Development of economy /industry/agriculture Low salaries, pensions, high prices Creation of places for entertainment, leisure Ecology Migration Maintenance of apartments Illegal construction First mention Corruption All mentions Implementing the laws, protection of human rights Problem of education 0. Other DK/NA IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, December 00

16 What are the most important problems facing you and your household members? Social-economic situation 8 Unemployment Low salary Maintenance of apartments Education, health Housing, communal services 9 No problems Solution of communal problems Labor migration Unsatisfactory communal services First mention All mentions Other DK/NA IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, December 00

17 Thinking about the current and future situation of your country, what are the things you are most afraid of? War Problems of Nagorno Karabakh Migration Socio-economic situation Other Unemployment Lack of recognition of the genocide Corruption National calamities, epidemy Bad relations with other countries Elections Poor ecological situation DK/NA 0 0 First mention All mentions IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, December 00

18 POLITICS IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, December 00 8

19 What should the Armenian government accomplish first in order to attract the support of the majority of the population? Create jobs Improve living conditions Improve socio-economic situation Fulfill promises Increase salaries, pensions Fight corruption Increase democratic reforms Implement laws Solve the problem of Nagorno Karabakh Develop economy Improve policy Slow migration Stabilize prices Return Soviet-era deposits Improve the educational system Cut taxes Other DK/NA First mention All mentions IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, December 00 9

20 How much interest do you have in politics? Low interest Medium interest High interest DK/NA Dec 00 Oct Jul Mar 00 0 Nov 00 Aug May IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, December 00 0

21 Do you plan on voting in the next presidential election? Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no Have not decided yet DK/NA Dec 00 Jul 00 8 Oct IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, December 00

22 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, December 00

23 How would you evaluate the current state of relations between Armenia and? Good Bad Neither good nor bad DK/NA Russia 9 European Union 8 Iran 9 USA 8 Georgia 9 Turkey 8 8 Azerbaijan IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, December 00

24 Which countries do you consider to be the most important partners for Armenia? Which of these countries constitutes the greatest political and economic threat? 89 8 Partners Threats Russia France European Union Iran USA Georgia Turkey Azerbaijan None DK/NA IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, December 00

25 In your opinion, should Armenia in the future? Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no DK/NA Join NATO Join European Union 9 8 Remain a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States 9 9 IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, December 00

26 Do you think Russia is a trustworthy ally of Armenia? Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no DK/NA Dec 00 Oct 00 Jul 00 Mar Nov 00 8 Aug 00 8 May IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, December 00

27 INSTITUTIONS IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, December 00

28 What is your opinion about the work of each of these institutions? Favorable Unfavorable No opinion European Union 8 Church 8 Army 8 8 Commonwealth of Indpendent States 80 United Nations Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe 9 8 Armenian media Educational system NATO 8 President's office Government (Cabinet of Ministers) Central bank 9 Police Political parties Armenian Parliament IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, December 00 8

29 SOURCES OF INFORMATION IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, December 00 9

30 Which of these sources do you use to obtain political information? TV news and programs Relatives, friends Newspaper articles Radio news and programs Colleagues 9 0 Meetings with politicians Dec. 00 Billboards, street placards Internet Oct. 00 Magazine articles Leaflets and direct mail IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, December 00 0

31 How much influence do each of these forms of election campaigning have on you during a political campaign? Great influence Some influence Not much influence No influence at all DK/NA Meetings with politicians 0 Meetings with/opinions of respected people TV ads 9 9 Newspaper articles about candidates 8 9 Paid media for the candidate or party 8 Home visits from the candidate or party 0 Personal letters from the candidate 0 Telephone calls from the candidate or party 0 8 Radio ads Leaflets Slogans, signs on public transport 8 0 Billboards 9 0 IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, December 00

32 In your opinion, are people in Armenia afraid to openly express their political views? Majority are afraid Many are afraid Some are afraid Nobody is afraid DK/NA Dec Oct 00 8 Jul 00 0 Mar 00 8 Nov 00 8 Aug 00 May IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, December 00

33 Do you believe that the 00 parliamentary elections were free and fair? Free and fair Not free and fair No opinion Dec 00 Oct 00 Jul IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, December 00

34 Do you think that the Armenian government is implementing anti-fraud measures for the presidential election and that they will indeed be free and fair? Yes, it is implementing measures of this kind and there will be improvement No, it is not sincere and there will not be improvement DK/NA Dec 00 8 Oct 00 Jul IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, December 00

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