IMPACT of visa liberalisation on countries of destination POLiSH EXPERIENCE WITH UKRAINE And other vlc. Marcin Wrona, PhD

Transcription

1 IMPACT of visa liberalisation on countries of destination POLiSH EXPERIENCE WITH UKRAINE And other vlc Marcin Wrona, PhD 1

2 TIME When: How long: max 90 days in any 180 days Where: EU countries What for: main tourism Who: Biometric passports holders (9 millions of UA) Macedonia Montenegro Serbia Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Moldova Georgia Ukraine 2

3 RESULTS number of ukrainians - 1,27 mln - smartphone map - 0,9 mln - Ministry of Labour (work permits,etc.) - 0,9 mln National Polish Bank(NBP) - 0,5 mln Polish Social Insurance Institution (ZUS): health insurance contributions mln experts: legally and illegaly, permanent and temporary visas 3

4 RESULTS Visa liberalisation and UA TOURISTS Growth of Ukrainian stayers Extra income for hotels and other accomodation institutions 4

5 Total number of visitors staying in Poland in hotels and other accommodation establishments from the visa-free countries (Ukraine and all countries) % + 5 % + 12 % + 7 % % + 12 % + 5 % % - 5 % % % - 10 % + 7 % + 25 % + 30 % + 23 % ,3 % + 6 % + 25 % +21 % * * Ukraine Total TCN 5

6 RESULTS Visa liberalisation and UA students - Biggest growth: 2012/ % - Huge growth: (2011) and (2016) of educational permits - Share of UA students: 2011: 20 % of all TCN students, 2016: 51 % of all TCN students) 6

7 Total number of first residence permits issued for education reasons to visa-free country, Ukrainian and third country nationals * 2010* * Ukraine Total VLCN Total TCN Ukraine Total VLCN Total TCN 7

8 Total number of first residence permits issued for education reasons to Ukrainian nationals (* 2017 and 2018 number of Ukrainian students in Poland) + 6 % % % % % % % * 2018* 8

9 RESULTS MOST COMMON JOBs of UA students : possibility of work on the base of the student visa - Uber drivers - Public transport drivers - Restaurant emploees - Buliding sector normal workers - Agriculture normal, seasonal workers 9

10 RESULTS Visa liberalisation and asylum Drop in the number of applications claimed after VL (no corelation with VL) Only total 11 asylum claims from Western Balkan countries ( ) Top 5 in Poland (TCN): Russia (Chechnya), Syria, Ukraine, Iraq, Belarus Huge number of Ukraininas afteer Crimea and Donbass conflict 10

11 Total number of asylum applications received from visa-free countries (Top 3) * * Moldova Georgia Ukraine 11

12 Total number of positive decisions on asylum applicants (top 5 all countries): Belarus 175 Iraq 210 Ukraine 395 Syria 500 Russia

13 RESULTS Visa liberalisation and border crossings Ukraine similar numbers (from in 2016 to in 2017) Moldova 4x increase in border traffic (illegal migration slight increase). Georgia increase in border traffic (illegal migration decrease). Illegal migrant few cases ( UA, 189 rest) Illegal migrants Ukrainans similar numbers (3713 in 2015, 3987 in 2016, 3910 in 2017) 13

14 Total number of legal external border-crossings and detections of irregular bordercrossings from nationals of Ukraine to Poland % % % % legal irregular 0 14

15 RESULTS Visa liberalisation and residence permits Decrease of number of short-stay visas corelating to VL Growth of long-stay visa applications Short-stay visa obligatory only for people who aren t holders of biometric passports (only 30 % have biopas) Huge boost of residence permits (from in 2008 to in 2017) 15

16 Total number of temporary residence permits ( ) by VLC Main reasons for applying for temporary residence permits: WORK (59%) FAMILY (31%) EDUCATION (16,5%) Ukraine Moldova Georgia Serbia Albania Bosnia and Hercegovina North Macedonia Montenegro 16

17 Total number of residence permits applications (all residence permits) by visa-free countries in 2008 Serbia; 117; 1% 2008 Bosnia and Herzegovina; 48; 0% Montenegro; 22; 0% North Macedonia; 50; 1% Albania; 162; 2% Moldova; 517; 6% Georgia; 139; 2% Ukraine; 8 003; 88% 17

18 Total number of residence permits applications (all residence permits) by visa-free countries in 2017 Bosnia and Herzegovina; 114; 0% Montenegro; 44; 0% 2017 Georgia; 1 637; 0% Moldova; 7 803; 2% Serbia; 869; 0% Albania; 140; 0% North Macedonia; 90; 0% Ukraine; ; 98% 18

19 Total number of short- and long-stay visa applications by Ukrainian nationals % % short-stay long-stay 19

20 RESULTS Visa liberalisation and Work permits Steady growth rate since 2015 ~ 90 % per year Slackening of growth: 2017 Reason: Crimea annexation and war in Donbas ( ): pauperisation of UA society The Pole s Card UA / all in

21 Total number of work permits for Ukrainian nationals in Poland % % + 91 % % % + 0,5 % + 29 %

22 RESULTS Visa liberalisation and SOCIAL INSURANCE Foreigners declared to social insurance (%) Citizenship * Total Citizens of EU states 25,1 24,5 24,2 23,3 23,9 24, ,8 7,7 6,3 Citizens of non-eu states, including: 74,9 75,5 75,8 76,7 76,1 75, ,2 92,3 93,7 Ukraine 25 26,6 27,7 31,3 31,9 32,6 39,5 54,9 66,3 71,9 74,8 Belarus 6,4 6,2 6,3 6,2 6,5 6,3 5,7 4,8 4,9 5,5 5,7 Vietnam 4, ,2 4,9 3,3 2,2 1,7 1,4 Moldova 1,2 0,9 1 1,1 1,1 1,2 1,4 1,4 1,7 1,5 1,3 Russia 4,6 4,6 4,4 4 3,9 3,8 3,4 2,5 1,9 1,5 1,3 22

23 RESULTS Visa liberalisation and SOCIAL INSURANCE Foreigners declared to social insurance (people) Citizenship * Total Citizens of EU states Citizens of non-eu states, including: Ukraine Belarus Vietnam Moldova Russia Most noticable increase: Ukraine ( : 26x increase) Belarus India Georgia ( : 29x increase) Nepal Bangladesh 23

24 RESULTS Declaration of employer Citizens of three countries benefiting from visa liberalisation, can work in Poland based on declaration of the employer Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine. Citizens of Ukraine: the number of registered declarations is constantly increasing Declarations for citizens who arrived or will arrive in Poland based on visa-free movement pose a significant part of all registered declarations for these states (Georgia 46,6%, Moldova 61,5%, Ukraine 26,1%).!!!! Available data is not complete- the majority of foreigners arriving in Poland in order to perform seasonal work, do it in the margins of visa-free movement!!!! 24

25 RESULTS Visa liberalisation and UA irregular migration Slight increase of illegaly present, slower growth rate Illegal work: huge increase, steady growth rate Unauthorised entry: slight decrease, rise in previous year Forced returns: slight increase vs slight decrease in prevoious year 25

26 Total number of forced returns, nationals found on illegal employment, nationals found to be illegally present and facilitators of unauthorised entry, transit and residence by Ukrainian nationals in Poland % % % % % illegal employment illegally present unauthorised entry forced returns + 6 % - 39 % + 21 %

27 RESULTS Visa liberalisation and human trafficking - Growth of share of UA nationals in all TC (6 % in 2016; 75 % in 2017) 27

28 RESULTS Total number of trafficked persons from third countries and Ukraine (final court rulings) % % 75 % Total number of trafficked persons from third countries (final court rulings) Total number of trafficked persons from Ukraine (final court rulings) 28

29 RESULTS Visa liberalisation and falsifying documents Drop by 20 % in the course of the 2016 and peak year (increase of 9 % ) From 2015 huge growth ( about 270 %) 29

30 RESULTS Total number of identity document fraud instances by Ukrainans

31 RESULTS Visa liberalisation and administration burdens 1st side - The introduction of the visa-free regime for Ukrainians contributed to some extent to the increase in applications for residence permits in Poland, first of all for temporary residence and work permits which resulted in the increase of the administrative burden related to the administrative procedures of granting those permits 2nd side - No need to claim short-term visas less work for administration 31

32 CONCLUSIONS Visa liberalisation for ukraine and vlc Push and Pull factors 1. Insufficient wages 2. Political situation 3. Cultural and religion similarity 4. Polish roots 5. Expanded social networks 32

33 CONCLUSIONS Visa liberalisation for ukraine and vlc 1. Positive aspects in terms of illegal migration (dropping nr of irregular border crossings) 2. Slight increase of regular migration (growth of issued visas and work permits) 3. Increasing meaning of Ukrainian workforce in the Polish labour market (filling the gap) 4. Employers more elasticity and simplified process as far as employing foreigners is concerned 5. Asylum seekers number is still decreasing (high after Crimea and Donbass conflict in 2014) 6. Generated extra demand for services and goods (hotels, restaurants, taxes, trainings, etc.) 33

34 CONCLUSIONS Visa liberalisation for ukraine and VLC 1. Wider migration possibilities 2. Impact not fully visible too short period (data for 2017, mid 2018, lib. in mid-2017) 3. Increase of number of illegal workers (bigger risk of entering of foreigners into grey zone: visa-free movement legal stay to 90 days, declaration of employer valid for 6 months) 4. Visa applications: increase of long stay (+28%), decrease of short stay (-53%) 5. Possibility of changing the direction of migration of Ukrainian citizens from Poland to i.e. Czech Republic, Germany or Southern European countries 34

35 Thank You for Your attention Paldies par jūsu uzmanību Ministry of the Interior and Administration Analyses and Migration Policy Department European Migration Network National Contact Point to Poland Marcin Wrona, PhD 35