Climate Change: The Next Biggest Threat to Human Security

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ISSUE NO. 24, SEPTEMBER 2017 Climate Change: The Next Biggest Threat to Human Security Janelynn Njuki Climate change is posing a soft yet bigger threat to human security in the world than terrorism.

1 ISSUE NO. 24, SEPTEMBER 2017 Climate Change: The Next Biggest Threat to Human Security Janelynn Njuki Climate change is posing a soft yet bigger threat to human security in the world than terrorism. The reality of climate change and its inevitable nature has become a number one dialogue item amongst policy makers. And whilst both previous and current generations have failed to implement their nature obligation to prevent climate change, mother nature has progressed to vulcanize herself from the cocoon where it has been gestating for decades. In his book the Lucifer Principle, Howard Bloom, 1995 referred to the demanding nature of the environment as being a bloody bitch that seeks attention and care for survival; a merciless bitch that if not taken care of by man could be tragic. Bloom s sentiments on nature were echoed by 19th century German philosopher Hegel, who faulted mother nature to having created a tragedy where one good battles the other good as a basic law of her universe. Hegel also compared nature to a sculptor who continually works to improve upon her work for survival. The unforgiving and amusement of mother nature, which are often cruel, has led to numerous consequences, among them, displacement, whether temporarily or permanent, social and political contexts of conflict. Inspirational calls from an international perspective, on the need to prepare, adapt and mitigate issues of climate change have been embraced across board. More structured means of addressing issues of climate change, while putting into consideration the alterations in geopolitical dynamics, and the impact on peace and security have been gaining weight amongst states. Politics of climate Change Naomi Klein, 2014 in her book this changes everything challenged the psychology of denial and realities of climate change. She argued that climate change is a civilizational wake up call. Klein equated the climate change call to a powerful message that is delivered in form of floods, fires, storms and droughts. The author confronted capitalism, desire for free market coupled with addiction to

generate mega profits that calls for breaking up of every rule in the free market playbook, as among the single most disaster, that is systematically blocking climate action and have even undercut

2 generate mega profits that calls for breaking up of every rule in the free market playbook, as among the single most disaster, that is systematically blocking climate action and have even undercut good faith efforts to prevent climate change (one good battling another good for survival and end result becomes disastrous). Climate related discussions have contributed significantly to political ramifications in addition to development and humanitarian implications thus requiring intervention that is proactive in nature. be on human migration, various governments are incorporating climate change deliberations into their national security policies. In the horn of Africa, Rwanda has been at the forefront of not only amending national environmental policies to include policies that prevent and mitigate the ruthlessness of climate change but also in the implementation of all protocols and conventions that relate to climate. Kenya has initiated its baby steps through its ban on manufacturer and use of non-recyclable plastics. Storm damage in the aftermath of Hurricane Irma in Tortola, in the British Virgin Islands According to Klein, marginalization of discussions on climate change in political forums is as a result of machinations of elites, who despite understanding the significance of threats that climate change present, advocates for a gradual and painless response to climate change. Capitalism and politics have engrossed countries minds that nations are not realizing the drastic changes that climate is presenting. However, few countries have realized that and with the realization that the greatest effect of climate change might UNEP s Global Environment Outlook together with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the United Nations Security Council during their meeting on June 30th 2015, while addressing security implications of climate change cited the phenomena as the new threat multiplier for global security. Displacement and Conflict Displacement that is interconnected to climate change has since ceased to be a future hypothesis but rather a reality.

3 In the recent past, effects of climate change has temporarily or permanently displaced hundreds of thousands of people. Gradual processes of environmental degradation and extreme weather conditions continue to cause migration. According to UNHCR, an estimated 21.5 million people have been forcibly displaced by hazards such as draught and floods amongst other weather related risks. In 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report estimated that by 2050, approximately 150 million people could be displaced either by desertification, floods, storms, water scarcity among other climate change related disasters. vulnerable to storm surge and flash flooding, with inescapable impact on displacement. Case in point, islands of Maldives, Tuvalu, Lamu, Seychelles and Kiribati are under threat resulting from increasing sea level rise as a result of global warning, that has taken a toll order on the Antarctica, resulting to melting of ice/snow at an uncontrollable rate thus the rise in sea levels. It has been projected that by 2050, the said islands might be submerged, if urgent mitigation measures are not put in place. The improbable question that countries are avoiding is, in the event that this catastrophic hypothesis happens, where will all the displaced population in the said islands settle considering Drought stricken herds in northern Kenya While Hurricane Harvey, the most catastrophic flooding that the US has experienced in thirteen years, is the most recent and familiar impact of climate change that has resulted to displacement of people, more questions linger on whether this is just, but the beginning of traumatizing aftermaths of discourses related to climate change. Regions along the coastline belt, the gulf coast and low-lying areas remain the extremely restrictive and hostile immigration policies that countries have put? This in itself would be a recipe for conflict, whether human or animal conflict. This climate related vulnerabilities continue to pose a threat to human security since displacement is also representing a coping mechanism and survival strategy. In regions where displaced persons are settling, whether internally or externally,

serious depletion of natural and human resources, either because inhabitable lands are inadequate or from combined pressure on the environment by ways of degradation and other destabilizing forces is

4 serious depletion of natural and human resources, either because inhabitable lands are inadequate or from combined pressure on the environment by ways of degradation and other destabilizing forces is surfacing. In addition, demographic changes that result from climate change induced displacement and migration; have had cumulative impact on social and political development priorities in totality. These unsustainable developments have a potential to result to increasing poverty and rural- urban migration among other factors that exacerbate tension resulting to social conflicts thus displacement. Complexities of defining environmental migrant also present Changes in Seasonal Predictability Closer home, effects of climate change has disrupted the annual climatic seasons, resulting to extreme weather events, which cannot be categorized to belong to neither spring, winter, summer nor autumn. It has become almost impossible to predict the weather. These extreme shifts in climate leading to changes in seasons and ecosystems have led to social and cultural related conflicts through disasters. Earlier in July, for the first time ever, residents of Nyahururu in Nyandarua County were treated to a rare case of falling snow. Snowy Weather Hits Villages in Nyandarua county its challenges in building countries awareness and momentum for ensuring employment of practical actions. High percentage of policy responses in different countries have instead of focusing on long term means of protecting, adapting and mitigating climate change related risks, continued to concentrate on impacts of sudden disasters. Later the metrological department clarified the case to be a hailstorm, which occurs when there is an abrupt convention and rain clouds form too fast. While many Kenyans took to social media to celebrate the rare occurrence, I was a frightened lot because snow rarely falls in African cities, and when it occurs, it only hits the South Africa Mountains, the Magreb and on Mt. Kilimanjaro. Earlier

in the year in May, Zambians in the capital Lusaka experienced their fair share of hailstorms. Residents woke up one morning to find their backyards and streets covered with snow.

5 in the year in May, Zambians in the capital Lusaka experienced their fair share of hailstorms. Residents woke up one morning to find their backyards and streets covered with snow. These two cases should not be treated as a rare occurrence but rather as climate change wake up call. Changes in seasons have also affected food security as effects of warming and drying of some regions community in Runda, Karen, Lavington and Muthaiga have been complaining of invasion of their lawns by the notorious Maasai herds of cattle. Notwithstanding the porshness, the Maasai have directed their cows to these leafy suburbs in search of water and pasture for their only source of livelihood. And where else to find the much needed feed if not on the well manicured lawns in these suburbs? Maasai herd along the busy highway in Langata, Nairobi county. especially in the horn of Africa, have significantly reduced agricultural production thus affecting livelihoods and fueling conflict. Recognizing that threat to human security does not imply only war and is not to be purely understood from a military perspective is critical in In the Darfur region, increase in longevity of drought cycles resulting from lack of agricultural land and water, coupled with rapid expansion of the Sahara has intensified resource conflict. Widespread grazing and farming by groups have accelerated desertification. The environmental pressure has in turn forced people to migrate and accelerated resource conflict. In pastoral communities, frequent clashes have been reported as pastoralists scramble for the scarce resource. In Nairobi, the bourgeois addressing the conflict between the ever-expanding demands of human kind, which is affecting climate and the finite world. Climate change hazards continues to pose a threat on livelihoods and human capabilities through erosion of human capital, agriculture and food insecurity, water stress and scarcity, flooding and destruction of properties among other risks. It is thus important that stakeholders re- visit concerns of climate change that pose a threat to human enjoyment of rights and

6 freedom, because sooner than later, every single one of us is most probably going to be a migrant, courtesy of climate change. Also, of great priority is to strategize on measures that enhance understanding, co-ordination and cooperation, with regards to climate change induced displacement and migration of populations, that fuel conflicts. It is also of essence that governments call to act the various stakeholders and initiate discussions on relocation plans where appropriate at the national, regional and international levels. The level of international solidarity that needs to be built to deal with impact of climate change is massive. If not taken care of, the environment will change the world so drastically that no one will be safe, and it will have the last laugh since its older and stronger. Africa Policy Institute, September 2017 Janelynn Njuki, Africa Policy Institute advisor on Governance and Security.

7 About Series publishes scientifically valid research outputs that cannot be considered as full research or methodology articles. Its aim is to provide a forum for sharing data, useful information and perspectives on topical issues of concern to the policy and research communities. Articles published under this series cut across disciplines, and include some short articles or opinion pieces that have already been published by the experts of the Africa Policy Institute. Some are brief publications, updates to previous work, abridged versions of research agendas or concept notes or brief reports of policy forums.

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