PUBLIC OPINION AND NATIONAL DEFENCE

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1 PUBLIC OPINION AND NATIONAL DEFENCE Ordered by: Ministry of Defence of Estonia TALLINN March 0

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS SUMMARY... BACKGROUND OF THE SURVEY... Methodology of the Survey... Socio-political background... MAIN RESULTS OF THE SURVEY.... Pride in the state of Estonia's membership in the European Union and NATO.... Confidence in institutions.... General background..... Defence structures.... Security and threats..... Security in the world and in Estonia Threats to Estonia..... Security guarantees.... Willingness to defend among population of Estonia..... Attitude towards active defence activities..... Desire to leave Estonia in the event of military threat Ability to act in the event of potential attack.... Defence capability of Estonia..... Assessment of defence capability of Estonia..... Views on volume of defence expenditures..... Assessment of state activities upon the development of national defence.... Estonian Defence structures..... Contacts with defence structures..... Attitude towards conscript service Necessity of conscript service for young men Evasion of conscript service Alternative service Conscript service for women..... Attitudes towards professional army..... Image of professional military servicemen and their motives for career choice..... Tasks of the Defence League.... NATO...

3 .. Attitude towards membership in NATO..... NATO assistance in the event of potential threat.... International military operations..... Attitude towards participation in international operations..... Arguments for participation in international operations Image of operation in Afghanistan..... Associations with the word "veteran".... Information related to national defence..... Initial military education in schools..... Continuation sheet of the weekly Eesti Ekspress: Riigikaitse.EE... ANNEXES: Annex Questionnaire in Estonian Annex Data tables

4 SUMMARY In March 0, on the order of the Ministry of Defence of Estonia, the Social and Market Research Company Saar Poll conducted a public opinion survey during which,0 residents of Estonia aged - were interviewed. In this Survey, attitudes related to the state of Estonia were mapped. The results show that % of the population are proud of membership of the European Union, of NATO membership - more than %. Continuously or frequently, 0% feel this way for the EU and % for NATO; within six months, both values have increased by some percentage points. While views on Estonia's membership in the European Union have rather small differences, then - compared to non-estonians - Estonian-speaking respondents are considerably more positively-minded about holding NATO membership. Among the ten surveyed institutions, the Rescue Service is trusted most (% confidence among population of Estonia aged -). In this ranking, the Rescue Service is followed by the Defence Forces (%), the Police (%), the Defence League (%), the President (%), NATO (%) and the European Union (%). Among the population, the least trustworthy are the Parliament (Riigikogu; %), the Government (0%), and the Prime Minister (%). However, compared to last autumn, confidence in the last three state institutions has slightly increased. All institutions are trusted by Estonian-speaking population more than non- Estonians. In spring 0, % of the population of Estonia aged - think that - in the coming decade - instability and probability of military conflicts are going to increase. % believe that the world is becoming more secure in the coming decade, and % think that the situation remains unchanged. Situation in Estonia is perceived as somewhat more positive - improvement in security here is held by 0%. As for military conflicts in the world, within half a year, threat perception of the population has increased by percentage points. The proportion of those fearing more insecure situation in Estonia has risen by percentage points. As in preceding surveys, the most probable threats impending Estonia are thought to be the following: cyber-attacks against Estonian state information systems (in the coming years, % consider their occurrence very or rather probable), interference of any foreign country into Estonian politics and economy in order to make influence in its own interests (%), or extensive marine pollution (%). Within half a year, the proportion of those considering large-scale military attack by a foreign country possible has enlarged (by percentage points); the same applies to those fearing limited military attack against a strategic site extensive marine pollution (by percentage points), cyber-attacks against Estonian state information systems (by percentage points) and a foreign state interference to influence Estonia s policy or economy (by percentage points). For state of Estonia, NATO membership is still considered as the main security guarantee (% mention this as one of three important factors). Similar to preceding surveys, development of Estonia's independent defence capability holds nd place (%), followed by membership in the European Union (0%). As in preceding waves of survey, Estonianspeaking respondents put clear emphasis on membership in NATO (mentioned by % of

5 Estonian speakers and % of foreign speakers); for foreign-speaking population, the main security guarantee is cooperation and good-neighbourly relations with Russia (%; Estonian speakers: %). Compared to the preceding wave of survey, the proportion of those considering development of Estonia's independent defence capability as a major security guarantee has increased (by percentage points). However, the proportion of the people favouring defence cooperation with the Nordic countries has decreased (by percentage points). Personal willingness of the population to participate in defence activities is still lower than favouring armed defence activities at the state level. In the event of foreign attack, armed resistance is considered certainly or probably necessary by %, but only % of the population would be willing to participate in defence activities using their own capabilities and skills. Non-Estonians' support for armed resistance activities is as high as that of Estonians (% vs. %), but their willingness to participate themselves in defence activities using their capabilities and skills is substantially lower (% vs. %). In a situation where Estonia is under attack, every fifth person would consider leaving Estonia: in such a situation, % would endeavour to leave certainly and % would do it probably. People aged - and 0- would consider leaving Estonia more often than people belonging to other age groups. In the event of attack, % of Estonians and 0% of non-estonians would endeavour to leave Estonia. Compared to the preceding wave of survey, the number of those non-estonians endeavouring to leave Estonia is less by percentage points; during the last waves of survey, this decreasing trend has prevailed. Awareness of the population in behaving in a threat situation is quite low: only % of them would know what they can do to defend Estonia if the event of an attack by a foreign enemy. Compared to the five previous waves of survey, the proportion of people in the know was slightly bigger than earlier when it was around 0%. However, the people feel the strong need to obtain training on national defence, as initial military education in schools is favoured by % of the population of Estonia (% say it should certainly be and % say it should probably be included in study programme). When assessing Estonia s national defence, opinions of the people are divided largely in half: % of the population find it would be possible to defend Estonia in the event of an attack from a foreign country, % consider it impossible. Estonian-speaking residents compared to non-estonians are more optimistic about the opportunities to defend Estonia (% and % of respondents, respectively, believe that Estonia is defendable). When assessing the volume of Estonia s defence expenditures, almost half (%) of the population believe that defence expenditures should be maintained at their current level. Increase in defence expenditures is favoured by % and decrease by % of the population. Compared to the survey conducted in autumn 0, there are no major changes in the assessments, although they seem to be slowly moving towards optimism - after decrease during the economic crisis. State defence activities within development of national defence in recent years are positively assessed by % and negatively by % of the population. Compared to the two previous waves of survey, assessments have been at stable, high level. Similar to earlier surveys, activities related to national defence development are assessed by Estonian-speaking population higher than non-estonians (% and %).

6 As for the population of Estonia aged -, % have personal contacts with Estonian defence structures and % have indirect ones. Most of the contacts are related to conscript service (% have been conscripts themselves and % of the respondents have friends or family members undergone conscription), followed by the Defence League activities (% have participated themselves and % have contacts via people close to them). Males, younger respondents, and Estonian speakers have most contacts with Estonian defence structures. People in Estonia have continuously favouring attitude towards conscript service: outright % of the population believe that young men need to undergo conscript service, with % believing that it is certainly necessary. / of the respondents (%) think that young men with minor health disorders should undergo conscript service in the event of appropriate training load, 0% hold the opinion that young men with minor health disorders should not undergo any conscript service. % of the population hold the opinion that the young men refusing to undergo military service due to religious or moral reasons should have the right to be called up for alternative service (e.g. working at social welfare institutions, in schools for children with special needs etc.) The majority of the population of Estonia (0%) disapprove evasion of conscript service - % condemn such behaviour and % consider it negative. Those population groups who consider conscript service more necessary (i.e., above all, Estonians and seniors as well as those having personal contacts with conscript service) condemn the evasion of conscript service more than average. % of the population are of the opinion that women could undergo voluntary conscript service including % think they should, in this case, undergo the service through a separate programme, for %: under same conditions as young men. 0% of the respondents (primarily non-estonians, %) hold the opinion that women should not undergo conscript service. % of the population prefer the maintenance of the current defence concept (professional defence forces together with reserve forces consisting of those undergone conscript service). Switch to professional army only (and, thus, waiving compulsory military service) is favoured by % of the population (incl. % Estonian-speakers and % non-estonian speakers). The strategy that national defence is not a common task for the military only, but for the most state institutions and the whole society, is supported by % of the population. Attitudes of Estonian people towards professional military servicemen are predominantly good (0%) or neutral (%). Compared to the previous survey, the proportion of positive assessments has slightly increased and the number of people with neutral attitudes decreased (by and percentage points, respectively). As the main career influencing factor, the respondents consider interest in the profession (%); it is followed by an opportunity to earn good salary (%) and to obtain international-level training (%), as well as patriotism and desire to defend their own country (%). Compared to the preceding waves of survey, the proportion of economic reasons - opportunity to earn good salary, and lack of other job - has gradually decreased. The main task of the Defence League, according to the population of Estonia, is to participate in rescue activities in the event of accidents and disasters (for %, it is one of the three main tasks); it is followed by establishment of capability for military defence of the state (%) and

7 raising both the willingness and readiness to defend among the population (%). The foreign-speaking population holds a strong opinion that a significant task of the Defence League is participation in rescue operations in the event of emergencies and disasters (%), for Estonians, raising both the willingness and readiness to defend among the population is of equal importance (-%). In spring 0, Estonia s membership in NATO is favoured by % of the population, incl. % certainly in favour. After the downturn in 0, support for NATO membership has started rising again. During the two last waves of survey, among foreign speakers, support for NATO membership has seen ups and downs; at present, the difference in respective attitudes of the two language groups is 0 percentage points - similar to the situation in 00 and 0, nd half. % of Estlanders hold the opinion that, in the event of impending threat, NATO would provide direct military assistance, % believe that NATO would confine itself only to political and diplomatic support. % believe that membership in NATO would be able to prevent a military conflict completely, % think that there is no hope for help from NATO. Compared to last time, the proportion of those believing that NATO membership would be able to prevent a military conflict, has slightly increased (by percentage points). Estonians and the people in favour of Estonia s membership in NATO pin their bigger hopes on the organisation as well. 0% of the population believe that units of the Estonian Defence Forces should in accordance with their capabilities participate in international operations. Estonians tend to support participation of the Estonian Defence Forces to a greater extent (% of Estonians, 0% of non-estonians). Like in earlier times, participation in international operations is considered necessary primarily for two reasons: it provides our soldiers necessary real combat experience (mentioned by % as a reason) and provides NATO s assistance to Estonia in the event of potential threats (%). During the last three years, around % of the population is in favour of Estonia s continued participation in the Afghanistan mission; compared to spring 0, this support has declined by percentage points. Participation in EU training mission in Mali is favoured by % of the population; this question has been asked in the three last waves of survey. In this Survey, a new question about participation in peacekeeping operation in the Central African Republic was included - it is supported by % of the population. Among Estonians, general support for missions, and continued participation in the Afghanistan and Mali missions is bigger than among non-estonian speakers, the latter give their slightly bigger support to the Central African Republic mission. In the eyes of the population, image of the mission in Afghanistan is versatile. Thus, people have a clear positive attitude towards the professionalism of Estonian military servicemen in Afghanistan, but at the same time they are concerned about the safety of our military personnel and are not very certain about the necessity and effectiveness of the Afghanistan mission. Only a small number of respondents (%) associate the word "veteran" with the Estonian Defence Forces missions in Kosovo, Afghanistan and Iraq, it is primarily associated with the World War II (%).

8 BACKGROUND OF THE SURVEY In spring 0, on the order of the Ministry of Defence of Estonia, the Social and Market Research Company Saar Poll conducted a nationwide public opinion survey with the purpose to give an overview of attitudes and points of view on the following topics: - Attitudes towards Estonian state; - Confidence in institutions (incl. defence structures) among the population; - Assessments in connection with potential threats and security risks in Estonia and in the world; - Willingness to defend among the population and estimated behaviour in the event of potential threats impending Estonia; - Assessments of Estonia s defence capability and related state development activities; - Attitude towards conscript service and other types of defence structures; - Attitude both towards NATO and associated developments; - Attitudes in relation to international military operations. This report presents the background of the Survey, provides an overview of its major results and includes a summary of the results. Annexes to the report are population poll questionnaire in Estonian and data tables for various socio-demographic characteristics. The report compares the results with those of similar public opinion surveys conducted in Benchmark data come from the data files of the Ordering Institution and from the reports of the years in question, which are publicly available on the website of the Ministry of Defence of Estonia. Methodology of the Survey Between March 0-, 0, the Market Research Company conducted a nationwide public opinion poll, in which - using face-to-face interview and a paper questionnaire -,0 people aged - were interviewed. Respondents were selected using proportional random selection method. Interviews were conducted by Saar Poll s experienced interviewers and they were held in Estonian and Russian. To diminish the differences occurred in comparison of Survey results and statistical model, the results were weighted by the following socio-demographic characteristics (Table ). For preparing the model with socio-demographic characteristics, data from population statistics as of January 0, 0 were used. Ethnicity characteristics are weighted on the basis on 0, since newer statistics is not available. Figure provides a more detailed overview of the respondents profile; confidence limits can be seen in Table.

9 Table. Sample specification based on socio-demographic characteristics GENDER Model (%) Reached sample (%) Weighted sample (%) Male,,, Female,,, AGE ETHNICITY * RESIDENCE REGION -,,, 0-,,, 0-,,, 0-,,, 0-,,, 0-0,, 0, Estonian,,, Other,,, Urban,,0, Rural,,0, Northern Estonia,,, Western Estonia,,, Central Estonia,,, North-Eastern Estonia,,, Southern Estonia,,, * To ensure comparability with preceding surveys, the results in this report have been analysed not by ethnicity, but by main language of communication. Although, for the sake of brevity, when referring to the respondents with the Estonian language of communication, the term "Estonians" is sporadically used, and foreign-speaking respondents are referred sporadically to as "non-estonians", one must keep in mind when reading the report that the comparison is nevertheless based on the language of communication throughout the Survey. Results by ethnicity can be examined from certain data tables (Annex ).

10 Figure. Respondents profile (%; N =,0) GENDER Male Female AGE MAIN LANGUAGE OF COMMUNICATION Estonian Other CITIZENSHIP Estonian Other EDUCATION Primary or basic Secondary or secondary vocational Higher MAIN ACTIVITY Businessman, entrepreneur Specialist Office employee, service personnel Unskilled worker (physical work) Pensioner At home, unemployed Pupil, student NET INCOME PER ONE MEMBER Less than More than 0 Difficult to say/refused FAMILY STATUS Married, cohabiting Divorced, separated Widowed Single RESIDENCE Tallinn Other city Rural area REGION Northern Estonia Western Estonia Central Estonia North-Eastern Estonia Southern Estonia Here and below, N represents the number of respondents.

11 Results of the Survey are extendable to the population of Estonia aged -; thereby, in the event of per cent confidence level, max sampling error remains within.% (as for smaller subgroups, the error can be bigger). Table provides more detailed overview of relationship for sample size (i.e. number of respondents), proportion calculated from the sample (i.e. % of answers) and potential statistical error (i.e. potential faults in %). Table. Sampling error limitations Percentage of answers/ Sample size 0% % or % 0% or 0% % or % 0% or 0% % or % 0% or 0% % or % % or 0% % or % % or % 0, 0, 0,,,0,,,,,,, 0,,0, 0,0 0,0,,,,,,, 0,,,,0,0,,,,,0,,0 0,,,,,0,,0,0,0,,, 0,,,,,0,00,0,0,,0,, 0,,,0,0,0,,,0,,,, 0,,,,,,,,,0,,00, 0,,,,,0,,,,,,,0 0,,,,,,,,,0,0,, 0,0,,0,,,,,00,,,,,,,,,,0,,,,0,,,,,,,0,,,,,0,0,0,,,,0,,,,,,,,,00,00,,,,,0,,0,,, 00,,,,,,00,,,,0,, 00,,,,0,,0,,0,,,, 00,,,,,0,,,,,,, 00,,,,0,,00,,,0,, 0, 00,,,0,,,,,,,,0 0, % or % 0,,,,0,,,,0,0, 0, 0,

12 Socio-political background As for events, the Survey period was very diverse and robust; probably the most effectual in recent years. It had definite reflection in respondents' opinions. However, it is very difficult to determine the direction of the reflection because events alternated very quickly, and it is difficult to say which of these internal and external political factors designed the respondents' opinions most throughout the survey period as important events developed very quickly. In domestic policy, change of government became the most important event. In the foreign policy area, however, an unexpected turnaround following the Maidan events in Ukraine - annexation of the Crimea by the Russian Federation. In Estonia, change of government began according to the planned scheme. Andrus Ansip, the recent Prime Minister resigned and his replacement was going to be Siim Kallas, a Vice President of the European Commission and an honorary member of the Reform Party. For the public, his arrival in Estonia brought about two unexpected events: formation of a new government without the present coalition partner Pro Patria and opening negotiations with the Social Democratic Party. Secondly, however, the alleged participation of Mr Kallas in the so-called billion kroon warranty (essentially a very dangerous agreement for the Republic of Estonia) from his working period for the Bank of Estonia was revealed. Siim Kallas did not stand the pressure from journalists, and a few days after he withdrew from forming a new government. The latter task was given to Taavi Rõivas, a young politician from the Reform Party's new generation. For the public, this option was not too easy to swallow as well. Also, the Reform Party announced that Kaja Kallas, a scheduled frontrunner for the European Parliament MP had to give up her list seat for the benefit of Andrus Ansip. All of these events triggered a sharp criticism from Pro Patria, who made a number of bold statements, especially in the area of defence policy. The change of government, however, did not likely to have much impact on people's assessments of defence policy. The latter, however, may have been influenced by the events in the Crimea. As mentioned, Pro Patria had several international initiatives to strengthen the NATO's presence in Estonia. With regard to the escalation of events in the Crimea, a number of countries express their willingness to enhance the defence of Estonia through sending military aircraft into Estonia and Lithuania. Active discussions were held on constant use of the Ämari aerodrome, since Estonia has no current capability for its manning round the clock. Events in the Crimea did also affect Estonian foreign policy and its aftermath became at times known in the world, when it became evident that an international call made by Urmas Paet, the Minister of Foreign Affairs was tapped and its contents published by the Russian media. Attitude of the Estonian people towards the European Union could have been influenced by extremely mild reactions by the EU governing bodies to the events in the Crimea. First steps made both by NATO and the EU gave an impression of weak response. This situation could lead the way to a well-founded fear that the NATO defence clause would probably not applied efficiently in reality, if the Crimean scenario should affect Estonia. Similar tensions have not disappeared. The Survey showed as well that, although pride of the fact that Estonia is a member of NATO has risen steadily in recent years, the last. years have seen fast decline in the trust. As for the European Union, however, the indicators mentioned have been increased. Supposedly the reason was that the European countries (at the same time, NATO members) reached out their helping hand to increase Estonia's defence capability. Events in the

13 Crimea have strongly influenced the assessments by the population of Estonia regarding defence policy issues. Never before (since 000), has general willingness to provide armed resistance been high as now.

14 MAIN RESULTS OF THE SURVEY. Pride in the state of Estonia's membership in the European Union and NATO Alike preceding surveys, the respondents were also asked to assess whether and how often they felt proud of Estonia s memberships in the European Union and NATO. Compared to October 0, feeling proud of both the EU and NATO membership has increased by a few per cent: 0% of the population has continuously or rather frequently felt proud of Estonia s membership in the European Union and % of membership in NATO (Figure ). Such a pride was never taken in by % (EU membership) and % (NATO membership). Figure. Feeling proud of state of Estonia s membership (%; N = all respondents) Very proud Rather proud Don't know Not so much Not at all 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Feeling proud of state of 0/0 Estonia s membership in 0/ 0/0 the European Union 0/ 0/0 LANGUAGE OF COMMUNICATION Estonian Other 0 Feeling proud of state of 0/0 Estonia s membership in 0/ the European Union 0/0 0/ 0/0 LANGUAGE OF COMMUNICATION Estonian Other 0 Based on language of communication, there are significant differences regarding the membership in the European Union and NATO. While opinions about Estonia s membership in the European Union are quite similar (among foreign-speaking respondents, the feeling of pride is percentage points less), then the Estonian-speaking population has always taken a lot more pride in the NATO membership than non-estonians. Namely, % of foreign-speaking respondents say that they have never been proud of the fact that Estonia is a member of NATO (as for non-citizens, the indicator is outright %). But only % of Estonian speakers hold the same opinion. Men's and women's attitudes towards membership in the European Union are very similar (0% of men and % of women have been proud continuously or rather frequently); as for membership in NATO, respective differences are small as well (% of men and % of women have been proud

15 continuously or rather frequently). Somewhat bigger pride in the membership in the European Union is taken by higher-educated people, in the both organisations - by younger people as well. Feeling proud of both the EU and NATO membership is the highest in Northern Estonia: % and % of the population has continuously or rather frequently felt proud of Estonia s membership, respectively. Feeling proud of the European Union membership is the lowest in Central Estonia (% of the population has continuously or rather frequently felt proud of this membership) and, as for NATO, the lowest indicators come from North-Eastern Estonia (that pride was never taken by %).. Confidence in institutions Second chapter deals with confidence of the population in state and international institutions. First, an overall picture of trustworthiness in all the institutions covered by the Survey is provided, thereupon changes in trust indicators of the Defence Forces and the Defence League in the last ten years are examined.. General background Respondents evaluated trustworthiness of the institutions using a scale with four categories: completely trust, rather trust, rather do not trust, and do not trust at all. Among the ten institutions surveyed, people have the biggest confidence in the Rescue Service % of Estonia s population aged - have confidence in it (Figure ). Figure. Confidence in institutions (%; N = all respondents) Balance Rescue Service - Defence Forces Police Defence League President NATO European Union Trust completely/rather Distrust completely/rather Riigikogu Government 0 Prime Minister

16 In this ranking, the Rescue Service is followed by the Defence Forces and the Police (both %%), the Defence League (%), the President (%), NATO and the European Union (both %). Among the population, the least trustworthy are the Prime Minister, the Government and the Parliament (%, 0%, and %, respectively). However, compared to last autumn, confidence in the last three state institutions has slightly increased. The confidence level of all institutions among Estonian-speaking population remains higher than among non-estonians (Figure ). The largest differences refer to the President (trusted by 0% of Estonian-speaking population completely or rather completely, while of foreign speakers - 0%), NATO (% vs. %), the Defence League (% vs. %), the Prime Minister (% vs. 0%), and the Defence Forces (% vs. %). Figure. Confidence in institution in the eyes of Estonian-speaking and foreign-speaking population (% of those who trust completely and rather %; N = all respondents) Rescue Service Defence Forces Police Defence League President NATO European Union Riigikogu Government Prime Minister Estonians Non-Estonians Figure represents institutional trust balances or the proportion of the difference between those who have trusted and those who have distrusted during the last four years. Compared to October 0, trust balances of most political state institutions have improved: by points for the President, and as much as points for the Prime Minister, the Government, and for the Riigikogu. Confidence in the European Union has increased as well (by balance points). Compared to October 0, trust balances of the five political state institutions have slightly declined: by points for NATO, points for the Defence League, points for the Rescue Service, points for the Defence Forces and point for the Police. When examining in the long run, recent years have shown big changes in confidence in the European Union: after a long decline, it currently shows - with economic crisis in the background - the upward trend once again. After an interim lack of confidence, the Prime Minister's, the Government's and the Parliament's credibility have moved towards positive trend. The Rescue Service has seen the most stable confidence in recent years.

17 Figure. Institutional trust balances 0-0 (balance between those who trust and who distrust; N = all respondents) Rescue Service Defence Forces Police 0/0 NATO 0 0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0 0/0 0/ / / /0-00/ / * In 0/ wave of survey, it was asked about the Rescue Service for the first time (in earlier surveys about the Rescue Board). * In the wave of survey 0/0, questions about the Police and Border Guard Board were asked. Defence League President European Union Riigikogu Government Prime Minister

18 0/000 0/000 /000 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 0/00 0/00 0/00 0/0 0/0 0/0 /0 0/0 /0 0/0 /0 0/0.. Defence structures The Defence Forces, holding nd place in the trustworthiness ranking after the Rescue Service, is trusted by % of the population of Estonia - as for March 0 (Figure ). As in preceding years, the confidence level among Estonian-speaking population remains considerably higher than among non-estonians - the Defence Forces are completely trusted or rather trusted by % of Estonians and % of non-estonians. When from autumn 0 until autumn 0 there was a decline in the trustworthiness of the Defence Forces, then now the proportion of trust has remained at a high level within the last three waves of survey. While the support in question among Estonians has been following the general trend, then fluctuations among foreign-speaking population have been more frequent. Since confidence in most of the state institutions varies during this period in a similar way, it may be a change in general inclination and optimism levels within the Estonian population - possibly due to wider political and socio-economic context. When examining the whole past decade, Estonians confidence in the Defence Forces has increased rather steadily, all in all by ca 0 percentage points since 000 and remaining at near 0% since 00. Among the foreign-speaking population, until the end of 00, there was also an uptrend, but after that the confidence level has been floating. As for non-estonians, the last major decrease in their trust occurred in October 0, and their confidence level remained relatively low for the next two waves of survey. Change in the same direction, although on a smaller scale, took simultaneously place among Estonians. In October 0, the trust level of foreign speakers saw some rise, but this spring it dropped again to the level of spring 0. Figure. Confidence in the Defence Forces in 000-0; Comparison of assessments by Estonianspeaking and foreign-speaking population (% of those who trust completely or rather trust; N = all respondents) ALL Estonians Non-Estonians

19 0/000 0/000 /000 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 0/00 0/00 0/00 0/0 0/0 0/0 /0 0/0 /0 0/0 /0 0/0 As in preceding years, confidence level of the Defence League is lower than that of the Defence Forces in March 0, the Defence League is trusted by % of the population of Estonia (Figure ). Over the past few years, the proportion of those having confidence in the Defence League has remained within the -%, while - alike in the Defence Forces or most other state institutions - confidence in the Defence League has begun - after a slight setback - rising again. Again, confidence-related assessments are higher among Estonians than among foreign-speaking population: in this Survey, the Defence League is trusted by % of Estonians; as for non-estonians, the indicator is %. Compared to the results from the previous wave of survey, confidence level in the Defence League has remained the same among Estonian speakers; among foreign-speaking population - decline by percentage points. In the long run, the Estonians' confidence in the Defence League has overcome a fairly steady increase (within a decade, by over 0 percentage points). Non-Estonians' trust indicators have generally also improved (rising from 0% to 0-0%), but this temporal series contains a lot more ups and downs. Figure. Confidence in the Defence League in 000-0; Comparison of assessments by Estonianspeaking and foreign-speaking population (% of those who trust completely or rather trust; N = all respondents) ALL Estonians Non-Estonians Security and threats Third chapter provides an overview of security issues: what kind of situation in the world and Estonia is expected in the coming decade, which threats are considered probable by the population in the coming years, and what would help to ensure the security of Estonia.

20 0.. Security in the world and in Estonia In spring 0, % of the population of Estonia aged - think that - in the coming decade - instability and probability of military conflicts are going to increase (Figure ). % believe that the world is becoming more secure in the coming decade, and % think that the situation remains unchanged. Like in earlier times, security situation in Estonia is perceived as somewhat more positive than situation in the world: / think that, in ten years, the population of Estonia would be living in more secure conditions than now, / have the opinion that the situation is not going to change, and / fear the conditions becoming less secure. Compared to the survey conducted in last autumn, as for military conflicts in the world, threat perception of the population has increased by percentage points, and the number of those fearing more insecure situation in Estonia is bigger by percentage points. Figure. Situation in the world and in Estonia in the coming decade*, 0-0 comparison (%; N = all respondents) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Situation in the world 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ Situation in Estonia 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ Situation becomes more secure Situation is not going to change Increased risk of military conflicts / situation less secure Don't know * Questions about the situation in Estonia and in the world were asked in different wording: - What do you think, in the coming decade, the world would become more secure and the risk of military conflicts reduces, or, conversely, instability increases in the world and probability of military conflicts would grow? - What do you think, what would the situation in Estonia be? Would the population, in ten years from now, be living in more secure or more insecure [before 0/: in more conflict threatening] conditions? Upon assessment of local situation, more secure circumstances are estimated by % of Estonian speakers and % of foreign speakers, less secure ones - by and %, respectively. With regard to the world situation estimates, Estonian speakers are slightly more pessimistic than foreign speakers: / (%) of Estonian-speaking population believes that risk of military conflicts would increase in the world, among foreign speakers, % hold similar opinion.

21 0/000 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 0/00 0/00 0/00 0/0 0/0 0/0 /0 0/0 /0 0/0 /0 0/0 When examining longer temporal comparison of the assessment provided for the situation in the world, it is evident that the indicator showing bigger threat of military conflicts has been floating throughout the previous decade within the range of -% (Figure ). An outcome of this Survey - telling that % of the population estimate more military conflicts in the world for the coming decade - shows that threat perception of the population of Estonia is lower than in preceding years. This may be due to the fact that, during the Survey period, the media focused closely on the crisis in Ukraine and events in the Crimea. Figure. Situation in the world in the coming decade; comparison (%; N = all respondents) 0 Situation becomes more secure Increased risk of military conflicts Threats to Estonia For an overview of what people consider as the most probable threats to Estonia, the respondents were asked to assess different potentially impending threats in forthcoming years. As for the majority of listed risks, there were more of those considering the given threat improbable than those who felt that this could impend Estonia in the coming years (Figure ). However, there were three aspects, for which more than half of respondents considered it very or rather probable in Estonia in forthcoming years: % of people think an organised attack (the so-called cyber-attack) against Estonian state information systems can happen, % believe that a foreign state can interfere to influence Estonia s policy or economy in their own interests, and % are of the opinion that an extensive marine pollution can befall. Probability of occurrence of other potential risks is considered smaller: mass street riots are very or rather probable for %, clashes on ethnic or religious grounds between population groups for %, Estonia s economic collapse for %, attack on citizens of Estonia in foreign countries for 0%, largescale military attack by a foreign country for %, limited military attack against a strategic site for %, acts of terrorism for %, explosion of a fuel train in transit or in an oil terminal for %, nuclear disaster at a nuclear power station close to Estonia for %.

22 Figure. Probability of different threats impending Estonia in forthcoming years, 0-0 comparison (%; N = all respondents) Very probable Rather probable Don't know Not really probable Completely improbable Organised attacks (the so-called cyber-attacks) against Estonian state information systems A foreign state interference to influence Estonia s policy or economy in their own interests Extensive marine pollution 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Mass street riots 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 0 Clashes on ethnic or religious grounds between population groups 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/ Economic collapse of state of Estonia 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 0 0 Attack on citizens of Estonia in foreign countries 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 Large-scale military attack by a foreign country 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 0 Limited military attack against a strategic site 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 0 0 Act of terrorism 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 0 0 Explosion of a fuel train in transit or in an oil terminal 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 0 Nuclear disaster at a nuclear power station close to Estonia 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/

23 The biggest change - compared to the previous wave of survey - is related to military attacks and cyber-attacks. Within half a year, there are more than twice of respondents by whom both a largescale military attack by a foreign country is considered probable (%; in October 0 - %). By percentage points has risen the number of people regarding limitary military attacks probable (%; in October 0 - %) and by percentage points, the number of them who think a cyber-attack can befall (%; in October 0 - %). The number of those fearing a foreign state interference to influence Estonia s policy or economy has risen by percentage points (%; in October 0 - %). At the same time, compared to autumn 0, the population is less afraid of attacks on citizens of Estonia in foreign countries (0%, in October 0 - %). Changes in attitudes towards probability of occurrence of other potential risks remain within a few percentage points. Figure. Probability of different threats impending Estonia in forthcoming years; comparison of assessments among Estonian-speaking and foreign-speaking population (%; N = all respondents) Very probable Rather probable Don't know Not really probable Completely improbable Organised attacks (the so-called cyber-attacks) against Estonian state information systems Eesti Muu 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% A foreign state interference to influence Estonia s policy or economy in their own Eesti Muu 0 Extensive marine pollution Eesti Muu Mass street riots Eesti Muu Clashes on ethnic or religious grounds between population groups Eesti Muu Economic collapse of state of Estonia Eesti Muu Attack on citizens of Estonia in foreign countries Eesti Muu Large-scale military attack by a foreign country Eesti Muu 0 Limited military attack against a strategic site Eesti Muu Act of terrorism Eesti Muu Explosion of a fuel train in transit or in an oil terminal Eesti Muu 0 Nuclear disaster at a nuclear power station close to Estonia Eesti Muu

24 When examining the results by respondents' main language of communication, the biggest differences are in threat perception of so-called cyber-attacks and military attacks and in economic collapse of the state (Figure ). Cyber-attack threat is considered much more probable by Estonianspeaking respondents than by non-estonians (% and %, respectively), the same applies to largescale military attacks (% and %, respectively) and limited military attacks against a strategic site (0% and %, respectively). In addition, more than foreign speakers, Estonian speakers regard more probable interference of any foreign country into Estonian politics and economy in order to make influence in its own interests (% vs. %), nuclear disaster at a nuclear power station close to Estonia (% vs. %), explosion of a fuel train in transit or in an oil terminal (% vs. %), or extensive marine pollution (% vs. %). However, economic collapse of state of Estonia in the forthcoming years is feared, above all, by foreign-speaking population (%, % of Estonian speakers). Changes in attitudes towards probability of occurrence of other potential risks remain within a few percentage points... Security guarantees Then, respondents were asked to mention up to three important factors that according to them would ensure maximum security to Estonia. Similar to previous waves of survey, population of Estonia is on the opinion that the main security guarantee is membership in NATO as a major factor, this is mentioned by over / of respondents (%) (Figure ). It is followed by development of Estonia s own independent defence capability, mentioned by % of Estlanders. This is followed by membership in the European Union (0%), cooperation and good-neighbourly relations with Russia (%), cooperation and good relations with the United States (%), defence cooperation of the Baltic States (%), membership in the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (%) and in the United Nations (%), defence cooperation with the Nordic countries (%), and participation in international military operations (%). Here, the attitudes of Estonian speakers and foreign speakers are clearly divided as well. Estonianspeaking respondents put primary emphasis on membership in NATO (it is mentioned by % as one of the three most important security guarantees, among foreign-speaking population: % only); for foreign-speaking population, the main security guarantee is cooperation and good-neighbourly relations with Russia (%; Estonian speakers: %). For Estonian-speaking population, second most important factor ensuring security is development of Estonia s independent defence capability (%; among foreign-speaking population: %); for non-estonians, the latter and membership in NATO hold the nd place together. Upon ensuring security, foreign-speaking respondents, attach importance (more than Estonians) to Estonia s membership in the European Union (% vs. %) as well as membership in the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (% vs. %) and membership in the United Nations (0% vs. %). Estonians, however, find (more than foreign speakers) that cooperation and good relation with the United States (% vs. %) and defence cooperation with the Baltic States (% vs. %) are more important. Compared to foreign speakers, Estonian speakers find participation in international military operations (% vs. %) slightly more important as well. As for defence cooperation with the Nordic countries, it has similar significance for both Estonian- and foreign-speaking population (both %).

25 Figure. Security guarantees for Estonia (up to most important); comparison of assessments among Estonian-speaking and foreign-speaking population (%; N = all respondents) Membership in NATO Development of Estonia's independent defence capabilities Membership in the European Union 0 Cooperation and good relations with Russia Good relations and cooperation with the United States Defence cooperation between the Baltic states Membership in OSCE Membership in UN 0 Defence cooperation with the Nordic countries Participation in international military operations Other 0 ALL Estonians Non-Estonians Don't know Figure shows that five recent surveys have seen more importance on the development of Estonia's independent defence capability and stable increase in favouring cooperation and good relations with the United States. Compared to the survey carried out in autumn 0, many indicators have currently declined: cooperation and good-neighbourly relations with Russia, defence cooperation among the Baltic States, Estonia s membership in the United Nations (all by percentage points). However, the proportion of those favouring defence cooperation with the Nordic countries has decreased (by percentage points), primarily due to changes in the attitudes of Estonians (in October 0, it was mentioned by % as one of important security guarantees, currently - % of Estonians only).

26 Figure. Security guarantees for Estonia (up to most important); 0-0 respondents) (%; N = all Membership in NATO Development of Estonia's independent defence capabilities Membership in the European Union Cooperation and good relations with Russia* Good relations and cooperation with the United States** Defence cooperation between the Baltic states Membership in OSCE Membership in UN Defence cooperation with the Nordic countries Participation in international military operations Other , 0, 0, 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ * Before 0/0, the wording was: Cooperation and good-neighbourly relations with Russia. ** Before 0/0, the wording was: Good relations with the United States.

27 . Willingness to defend among population of Estonia The fourth chapter deals with willingness to defend among the population in Estonia: at first, attitudes of the population towards active defence activities both at state and individual levels are depicted, thereupon desire to leave Estonia in the event of an attack, and finally - how the people are informed about how to protect Estonia in the event of possible attack... Attitude towards active defence activities Similar to earlier waves of survey, population s attitude towards active defence activities was mapped through two different questions: "If Estonia is attacked by any country, should we, in any case, regardless of attacker, provide armed resistance?" and If Estonia is attacked, are you ready to participate in defence activities using your own competence and skills?". The first question examines the attitudes towards the need for armed defence, the other the willingness of the population themselves to contribute to defence activities. In the event of foreign attack, armed resistance is regarded certainly necessary by % and probably necessary by % of the population (Figure ). Thus, a total of % of the population is in favour of military resistance, it is regarded unnecessary by % of the population. As before, Estonianspeaking respondents tend to consider armed resistance more necessary than non-estonians (% of Estonian-speaking and 0% of foreign-speaking population, respectively). Further, more than average, armed resistance is regarded certainly necessary by men (%, women: %), persons earning EUR 00 or more (%), capital residents (%), the youngest (% of the age group -) respondents, as well as those without minor children (%). Figure. Need for provision of armed resistance, if Estonia is attacked by any country (%; N = all respondents) Yes, certainly Probably yes Don't know Probably not Certainly not 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% TOTAL LANGUAGE OF COMMUNICATION Estonian Other 0 When examining all the years of the survey period, it should be noted that the proportion of the population favouring armed resistance has slowly, but steadily increased (Figure ). This time, the proportion of the people considering armed resistance necessary is the highest.

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