KNOWLEDGE CENTRE KCMD NEWSLETTER JUNE 2017 ON MIGRATION AND DEMOGRAPHY IN THIS ISSUE

Transcription

1 IN THIS ISSUE Welcome by Matthias Ruete, Director-General for Migration and Home Affairs Interview with Demetrios G. Papademetriou, President of Migration Policy Institute Europe New release Dynamic Data Hub New generation Migration Profiles The role of inequality as driver of migration Centre of Expertise on Population and Migration (CEPAM) Call for applications - JRC-SAS-INGSA Evidence for Policy Summer School NEWSLETTER JUNE 2017

2 Welcome Matthias Ruete, Director-General for Migration and Home Affairs One year has passed since the European Commission launched its Knowledge Centre on Migration and Demography. The Centre was tasked to enhance our knowledge base to support migration and demography related EU policies. In this relatively short time the has achieved important tangible results that contribute to our need for better migration data. These results are the product of intense cooperation across various Commission services and the European External Action Service, which together steer the work of the in line with the political priorities. Two contributions in particular, the Migration Data Catalogue* and the Dynamic Data Hub**, are used both by scientists and policy makers to carry out critical analyses such as the Migration Profiles. These tools are unique, giving access to harmonised, comprehensive and regularly updated information on countries of origin or transit of the big migration flows toward the EU. Following the adoption of the European Agenda on Migration in 2015, considerable progress has been made in addressing the increasing migratory pressures. We have seen an unprecedented reorganisation of EU action in this area with more responsibility at EU level, for example by enlarging the competences of Frontex and creating a real European Border and Coast Guard, by the large-scale mobilisation of Member States' expertise coordinated by the Commission in the so-called "hotspots" and, not to forget, by the setting up of resettlement and relocation schemes. While we continue to work with our Member States on the reform of the Common European Asylum system we are also taking a fresh look at our common return policy which also includes pushing for more readmission agreements or similar arrangements with key third countries. Overall our strong focus has been on the Eastern Mediterranean and Central Mediterranean routes. In the Eastern Mediterranean we have succeeded in the stemming the flows by cooperating We need a strong evidence-base to ensure sustainable, future-proof policies with Turkey and Western Balkans partners whilst at the same time launching the largest ever EU resettlement programme. We are now further stepping up our actions in the Central Mediterranean which involves working with multiple partners such as third countries including North and Sub-Saharan African countries, international organisations and NATO. Managing migration at EU and global level will remain a top priority for the Commission in the years to come. Later this year, we will present the mid-term review of the European Agenda on Migration, taking stock of what has been done and setting the direction to make sure we deliver on President Juncker's ambitious commitments. The importance is also clearly reflected in the 4.1 billion planned in the draft EU budget for This brings the total of overall EU funding for migration and security to an unprecedented 22 billion for the period. International migration is a very complex and multi-dimensional phenomenon that requires multidisciplinary approaches to be understood and managed correctly. In preparing for the future, we need to think holistically and in the long term. I see a clear role for the Knowledge Centre to help anticipate future migration flows and population trends and to understand their impact on our societies and economies. In particular, the Knowledge Centre is currently working on a new project, which aims at quantifying the relevance of the different drivers of migration and the effects of migration-related policies. I appreciate the ability to bring an innovative, evidence based, approach to our policy making. Maps of migrant communities provide an indication of how population by nationality or country of birth is distributed (or segregated) in EU cities. The analysis of new types of data, such as mobile phones or air passenger data capturing complex migration phenomena not visible through international migration statistics is another example of the invaluable contribution brings to our work. We need a strong evidence-base to ensure sustainable, future-proof policies. Having a Knowledge Centre inside the Commission is an important asset. I count on it to produce and provide specific scientific evidence where and whenever needed to strengthen our policies. Matthias Ruete * Data Catalogue: ** Dynamic Data Hub, public version: - Newsletter June

3 Interview with Demetrios G. Papademetriou Demetrios G. Papademetriou President of Migration Policy Institute (MPI) Europe Mr. Papademetriou was a guest to the workshop on Demographic Changes and the Impact of Migration, organised by the Centre of Expertise on Population and Migration (CEPAM) in April. During his career Mr. Papademetriou has been an advisor to numerous governments, including Canada and Australia, on migration policies. Currently he is President of Migration Policy Institute Europe, a non-profit, independent research institute in Brussels that aims to promote a better understanding of migration trends within Europe. Q1: Dear Mr. Papademetriou, in your opinion, does the EU need migrants and what kind of migrants? D: The EU, like all high-income and most middle-income economies will need migrants but they will need to be selective. Each country will have to identify its needs and the jobs that its nationals and the nationals of other EU countries can do; and the remaining jobs will have to be done by third-country migrants. A successful immigration system is characterised by the ability of a government to set and enforce the terms, conditions, numbers and qualifications of the people who come in in order to work, and the capacity and commitment to review and revise those numbers and composition of migration on a regular basis. It takes active management to have an immigration system that is responsive to the needs of the economy while also creating the conditions for the successful integration of newcomers. Q2: Would opening the legal migration channels curb irregular migration? D: I am afraid that this is simplistic and wishful thinking. Unless the legal routes are opened up enormously (and irresponsibly!) illegal or irregular immigration would not diminish. And even then, it would take many decades to reach that goal! As I suggested above, opening wider and deeper legal migration channels can be beneficial only if migration is managed well and consistently with a country's specific needs and the key ingredients of successful integration are in place. It should never be done as an antidote to illegal immigration. Q3: Would you say that work and participating in the labour market is a must for successful integration? D: Absolutely, you have to start with that. It contributes enormously to an individual s self-worth. Nobody aspires to become and remain a dependent person. Everyone wants to be able to support oneself and one's family. People want to be given an opportunity to do well for themselves and their family. Work is also very important because it helps demonstrate to the local population that immigrants are there to contribute, rather than being there just "to take". Unfortunately, the integration philosophy of many countries creates dependency. This has to change. So although integration to the labour market is not sufficient for people to become fully integrated, it is a necessary first step. And everybody has to participate in this effort through employment or community work. We need to work with a much bigger palette of ideas about integration so that everybody has an opportunity. Training and early entry into the workforce for adults, and schooling at the earliest age for children, are essential to the integration of newcomers. And we also have to be patient and realise that not everything we do will succeed. Integration is a long-term process that requires almost infinite adaptations from both sides. Q4: In your experience, would you say that humanitarian migrants are easier to integrate than other immigrants? D: To continue from the last point above, regardless of the immigration route one enters another country, you will have myriad mutual adaptations. Newcomers will have to adapt to the institutional infrastructure and the cultural idiom and ethos of the host country, and the host country and people will have to make many small and large institutional (and personal) adjustments in the way newcomers learn and adapt at the workplace and broader community. Two important questions (among many) are: How quickly can a newcomer become a worker that creates value for his or her employer? And what level of language aptitude must a migrant possess before actually starting to work? In this last regard, if the number of newcomers is sudden and large, one may have to emphasise the teaching of vocational language that will allow one to follow simple instructions at first. This will allow people to work and, two or three years later, they can actually learn the host language at the level of comprehension that would allow them to function well both at the work place and in the society. These are the kinds of adaptations that are necessary if people from entirely different backgrounds and educational experiences are to function effectively, over time, in the host society. Q5: How would you envision the role that the can play in tackling some of the ideas you have mentioned? D: Many of the ideas raised in this interview fall squarely within the mandate of the Knowledge Center on Migration and Demography (). The Center has the opportunity to develop and implement a policy research agenda that is forward looking (that is, it can peer around the corner and anticipate policy questions before a crisis arises), is thoughtful, and independent - that is, asking and answering questions that would make the Center the go-to place both for researchers and policymakers seeking dispassionate and unbiased results and advice, rather than support for a particular point of view. Michaela Potančoková on behalf of the CEPAM group - Newsletter June

4 New release Dynamic Data Hub MIGRATION AND ASYLUM Irregular border crossings / arrivals in EU Asylum applications, pending applications & decisions Residence permits in EU Immigration flows Populations of concern, including refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) Emigration flows DEMOGRAPHICS Income Poverty Labour force by education Unemployment Urbanisation Trade Agriculture Official development assistance SOCIO-ECONOMICS Remittances Population structure / dynamics Migration stocks Access and analysis of migration data from multiple sources Since its launch in December 2016, the Dynamic Data Hub has been expanded with additional datasets to include migration flows, stocks, residence permits, forced displacement and time series of selected demographic and socio-economic data (e.g. population growth, GDP, labour force and other World Development Indicators). The new datasets and indicators enable to understand migration in a wider context and unleash the potential for the crossdisciplinary analysis of the drivers behind migration. The Dynamic Data Hub offers a direct entry point to migration related data in order to undertake analysis and deepen understanding of migration flows, their trends and impacts on societies. It includes official statistics, estimates, operational and research data from international organisations, EU operational authorities and research centres. The data sources include Eurostat, Frontex, UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA), UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), World Bank, OECD, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, and Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC). The Hub is under continuous development. Forthcoming releases include data on children in migration, IDP and refugee camps as well as demographic projections. This work is part of an on-going process to support the European Commission, EU Member States and interested organisations and to build a stronger evidence base in support of the New York Declaration for Refugees and Migrants and Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Development. The Dynamic Data Hub is a webbased application that gives direct access to datasets through interactive mapping. The platform gathers, pre-processes and filters migration and related data with the aim to validate, highlight limitations and put into context data on migration. In doing so, the responds to growing calls for better use of migration data and provides data-driven support to EU policymaking. Access: Video Tutorial To learn more about the main functionalities of the Hub, watch the video tutorial: - Newsletter June

5 New generation Migration Profiles The is producing a new generation of Migration Profiles in support of developing and monitoring the Migration Partnership Framework 'compacts' of priority third countries. A good understanding and interpretation of available knowledge are prerequisites for efficient and informed policy development. Given the pressing political needs in terms of tailored and swift information, the profiles cover the current knowledge gaps on migration and development at a short time (3 months), in terms of sub-national coverage and comparability across countries. The profiles aim to provide up-to-date and context-specific information and analysis of the countries concerned. They illustrate the country's characteristics and present the latest information and trends on migration and development topics, such as on the refugee and migrant movements and routes. They are easy to use, able to capture both the international and local dimension and provide knowledge of primary importance for supporting an evidencebased dialogue and coordinated responses. Furthermore, the profiles include links with the international Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) framework and analyses on the EU strategic role vis-à-vis the third country, including its financial support to be able to identify relevant development priorities also in the short term. The exploitation of various research methods to collect and blend large amounts of scattered information in order to provide the most comprehensive picture of the country makes these profiles innovative. Open-source intelligence, operational data, open source media monitoring and geographical information are used as a crucial knowledge management tool for policymakers and policy analysts. The profile contains three distinct components: a) a structural Migration Profile, providing the longer-term overview (1-5 years), a guide with key need-to-know indicators b) a flash Migration Profile, giving the most recent picture of the situation on the ground (every 3 months), a concise geopolitical analysis complemented with maps and data visualizations c) an annual Migration Profile, providing a comprehensive analysis identifying trends over the last four quarters. Uptake of data and information in the profiles is facilitated through the use of maps, infographics and a cube giving an executive summary of the profile in 6 key facets. The first example on Mali has been completed and work is ongoing to finalise the Migration Profiles for the four other priority compact countries. This effort will be complemented by ad-hoc expert working group foreseen to take place in Migration Outline - visualisations as part of the Migration Profile for Mali autumn to refine the methodology and a training for relevant desk officers in order to familiarise them with the tools. The Migration Partnership Framework was introduced in June 2016 to fully integrate migration in the EU's foreign policy. The aim is a coherent and tailored engagement where the Union and its Member States act in a coordinated manner putting together instruments, tools and leverage to reach comprehensive partnerships ('compacts') with third countries to better manage migration. The EU is putting into place and implementing this framework starting with a number of priority countries of origin and transit, being Mali, Nigeria, Niger, Senegal, and Ethiopia. - Newsletter June

6 The role of inequality as driver of migration In a recent study* the Joint Research Centre (JRC) has provided evidence that a high inequality within a country is associated with low emigration rates, especially from middle income countries. The study analyses the relation between data on the Gini index and emigration rates from more than 200 countries worldwide. The study also shows that the reduction of the global inequality recorded since the early 2000s can be mostly attributed to the economic growth of China and India. It is explained that the reduction of global inequality may result from the combined effects of convergence of economies across countries i.e. the decline of between countries inequality, and from changes of within country inequality. However, the reduction almost disappears once China and India are excluded. The large population of these two countries implies that the economic growth recorded in their economies determines the reduction of global inequality, even in the presence of increasing within and between countries inequalities elsewhere. The negative relationship between the within-country inequality and emigration rates can be explained by the fact that, if relatively large inequalities exist, a considerable portion of the population might lack the very means to undertake a costly emigration journey. With more people getting the means to migrate and the migration costs decreasing, the migration pressure could be expected to increase in future. The evolution of inequality globally and between countries using the Gini index. Whereas 'Between countries' is calculated on the basis of the mean income of a country without taking into account the size of its population, the 'Between countries weighted' weighs the mean income against the country's population size.** Migration Inclination Indexes The Migration Inclination Indexes will provide innovative tools for better migration governance in the EU in the medium to long term; they will explain how economic, demographic drivers and migration policies in countries of origin and destination have influenced international migration flows with a special focus on immigration into the EU. Building on the large body of existing literature and ongoing academic research on the drivers of migration, the work on the indexes entails the assembling and processing of a wide collection of international datasets on migration. Carrying out empirical analysis with these data will allow to identify data limitations and constraints, as well as their potential and strengths to respond to policy questions. A better understanding of migration drivers and why people migrate is key for the definition of future migration scenarios. In addition to providing information on the root causes, incentives and determinants of migration, the indexes will include data on the intentions of people to migrate. With this information at hand, policy makers will be able to weigh the impact that their policies might have on migration flows. Results will feed into the Migration Inclination Indexes under development by the. The reduction of inequality within and among countries is a Sustainable Development Goal (SDG 10). * The relationship between inequality in the origin country and emigration, JRC ** Lakner, C., & Milanovic, B. (2016). Global Income Distribution: From the Fall of the Berlin Wall to the Great Recession. World Bank Economic Review, 30(2), Newsletter June

7 JRC Centre for Advanced Studies and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Centre of Expertise on Population and Migration (CEPAM) The Centre of Expertise on Population and Migration (CEPAM) was launched in June 2016 as the first partnership of the. The Centre jointly operated by the JRC Centre for Advanced Studies and IIASA under the lead of Prof. W. Lutz hosted a workshop on Demographic Changes and the Impact of Migration on April Participants included scientists from the USA, Canada and Europe, JRC scientists and the as well as representatives from European Commission services and EU Agencies. Demographic changes are driven by many factors such as fertility, mortality and migration. Projections of future population trends by age and sex in Europe exist but are insufficient when it comes to the assessment of the broader impacts of migration in Europe as well as the factors in the main regions of origin for migration into Europe. The workshop reviewed the state of the art in science in demographic modelling and migration and the related policy agendas. Moreover, the meeting provided a forum for both scientists and policymakers to explore how scientific solutions can contribute to short and long term practical problem solving in policymaking. The workshop participants engaged in lively discussions that helped to bridge the science-policy gap. Amongst others, the discussion showed that education is key: Women with higher education have fewer children, education is associated with lower mortality, better health, and different migration patterns. Moreover, higher education is expected to support economic growth. Above all, the needs of the policymakers stood in the centre of these discussions, especially with respect what policy questions the scientists can answer and what results would be of prime interest to Workshop on Demographic Changes and the Impact of Migration, April 2017 the policymakers. As a direct result of the workshop the research agenda of the CEPAM, which is exploring push and pull factors of migration and its impact on demographic change and labour force, is being updated. In particular, the underlying macro- and microsimulation modelling will be adapted to reflect the outcome of the workshop. Therefore: - Specific scenarios looking at sudden changes in migration will be explored - Demographic trends with alternative scenarios by level of education, age and gender will be produced - Human capital projections for EU-28 will be updated - lternative population scenarios will be fed into Eurostat ageing report, adding education and labor participation to age and gender as additional parameters - Conditions in potential sending countries will be studied in varying detail. Furthermore, alternative migration scenarios into Europe will be defined based on 1) scenarios of future labour demand in the EU, 2) future conditions in potential sending countries (socio-economic, climate, conflict) and 3) on different assumptions of 'intervening obstacles' costs, policies, etc. The analysis will be performed employing microsimulation modelling for the EU-28 population by age, gender, education and labour force participation. Projections of human capital will follow the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) based scenarios framework and will be performed through a multistate cohort-component population modelling approach. The results of the modelling approaches and specific needs of the relevant Commission services, some of which were discussed during the workshop, will contribute to the development of the migration scenarios. A new set of projections will be produced based on these scenarios using the micro- and macro-simulation models. It was agreed that the workshop should be periodically repeated in order to achieve an interactive environment between policymakers and scientists. The CEPAM group - Newsletter June

8 JRC-SAS-INGSA Evidence for Policy Summer School 6-8 September 2017 Senec, Slovakia Call for applications open until 25 June 2017 The Joint Research Centre, together with the International Network for Government Science Advice (INGSA) and the Slovak Academy of Sciences (SAS), is organising an Evidence for Policy Summer School on 6-8 September 2017 in Senec, Slovakia. This professional development training offers policymakers and scientists the opportunity to meet each other and together develop skills in using evidence for creating robust policy solutions. Using the lens of migration and demographic change as a common domain of policy interest, participants will be challenged to identify and address universal issues in data and evidence gathering and communication to policy makers and the general public. The workshop is not intended to present either the latest science or specific policy solutions in this domain, but to provide the tools and approaches to better inform the policy making process. Thus, the main focus rests on developing capacities in procuring, producing and using relevant evidence. Who are we looking for? - Scientists interested in how to achieve impact on policy and - Policymakers interested in how to commission and use research to support them in their daily work - Both having experience of working within the themes of migration and demographic changes (producing science or policy tackling them, using related data in their work on other topics, interested in the implications of these societal challenges on other fields, etc.) and - Working primarily in Central and Eastern Europe (EU Member States and selected EU Neighbourhood countries). While the application will be open to all EU Member States, priority for participation will be given to applicants from Central and Eastern Europe, due to their limited representation in previous summer schools. Moreover, 25 spots with full funding (travel and accommodation) will be reserved for participants coming from the following EU Neighbourhood countries: Albania, Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Georgia, Kosovo, Moldova, Montenegro, Serbia, Turkey and Ukraine. The remaining EU participants will be offered accommodation, but are expected to cover their own travel to Slovakia. What will you gain? - New knowledge on how to better integrate scientific evidence into policy-making; Scientists will learn how to better communicate and visualise their results, tackle uncertainty and align their projects with policy needs. Policymakers will learn how research can support policy, which science can be relevant to their field, where to find it and how to interpret it, and what can be expected from researchers. - New insights on how 'the other side' operates; - Enlarged network of likeminded professionals, working on migration and demographic changes with ambition of using evidence in policymaking; - Access to a global community of practice, exchanging top resources and expertise. The programme of the Summer School is carefully co-designed with the and will be of particular interests to scientists and policymakers working in this thematic and regional context. For further information: - Newsletter June

9 European Commission Knowledge Centre on Migration and Demography () Newsletter June

10 European Commission Knowledge Centre on Migration and Demography ()