International migration and development in the LLDCs: An overview

Transcription

1 International migration and development in the LLDCs: An overview Achieving the future sustainable development goals: The role of labour migration Second United Nations Conference on Landlocked Developing Countries (LLDCs) November 3-5, 2014, Vienna, Austria

2 The context Increasing recognition that international migration can have a transformative impact by: lifting millions of people out of poverty helping match labour demand with supply widening educational opportunities fostering entrepreneurship and innovation facilitating the exchange of technology, knowledge and culture However migration can also have high human, social and economic costs

3 Migrants, migration and mobility and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Migration was not included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) Strong signal that international migration should be integrated in the post-2015 United Nations development agenda: Informal interactive hearings with civil society (July 2013) High level Dialogue on International Migration and Development (October 2013) The Global Forum on Migration and Development (May 2014) The Open Working Group on Sustainable Development Goals (July 2014)

4 The LLDCs host relatively few international migrants Worldwide (13 million of 232 million migrants) In the developing regions (13 million of 96 million migrants) Other 95% LLDCs 5% Other 87% LLDCs 13% The number of migrants in LLDCs is small compared to total population: 2.9% vs. 3.2% worldwide Source: United Nations, Population Division/DESA, 2013

5 Most international migrants in the LLDCs livein Asia or Africa Number of international migrants, 1990 and 2013 (millions) Africa Asia Europe Latin America Source: United Nations, Population Division/DESA, 2013

6 Different LLDC regions host very different kinds of migrant populations Refugees and migrants aged 65 or over as a percentage of all migrants, % 22.3% 3.9% 18.8% 1.3% 0.5% 0.3% 6.6% Refugees Age 65+ Africa Asia Europe Latin America Source: United Nations, Population Division/DESA, 2013

7 International migrants living in the LLDCs often come from neighboring countries Living in African LLDCs (4 million migrants in 2013) Other 30% Somalia 11% South Sudan 12% Another African LLDC 20% Côte d'ivoire 14% DRC 13% Living in Asian LLDCs (7 million migrants in 2013) DPR of Korea 3% Other Ukraine 7% Another Asian LLDC 12% 13% India 13% Russia 52% Source: United Nations, Population Division/DESA, 2013

8 More migrants originate from LLDCs than live there Worldwide (26 million of 232 million migrants) From the developing regions (26 million of 164 million migrants) Other 89% LLDCs 11% Other 84% LLDCs 16% Source: United Nations, Population Division/DESA, 2013

9 The majority of international migrants from the LLDCs come from Asia Number of international migrants by area of origin, 1990 and 2013 (millions) Africa Asia Europe Latin America Source: United Nations, Population Division/DESA, 2013

10 Of the 7 million international migrants from African LLDCs, four-fifths live in Africa 92% 84% International migrants by area of destination, 1990 and 2013 (percent) Other 28% Côte d'ivoire 29% United Kingdom 3% USA 3% Nigeria 4% South Africa 14% Source: United Nations, Population Division/DESA, % 8% 4% 3% Kenya 5% Another African LLDC 14% Africa Europe Other

11 Of the 15 million international migrants from Asian LLDCs, most live in Asia or Europe International migrants by area of destination, 1990 and 2013 (percent) 61% 50% 37% 46% Another Asian LLDC India 4% 5% Germany 6% Other 15% Thailand 6% Iran 15% Russia 33% Pakistan 16% 2% 4% 0% 1% Asia Europe Northern America Other Source: United Nations, Population Division/DESA, 2013

12 Many LLDCs have large diasporas Number of international migrants by country of origin (millions) Afghanistan 5.1 Kazakhstan 3.8 Uzbekistan 1.9 Burkina Faso Lao PDR Azerbaijan At least 1 million people living outside of their country of origin Nepal 1.0 Mali 0.9 Republic of Moldova 0.9 Armenia 0.8 Paraguay 0.8 Bolivia 0.8 Kyrgyzstan 0.7 Zimbabwe 0.7 Tajikistan 0.6

13 Diasporas in many LLDCsare large compared to their total population Ratio of native born outside the country to those inside the country of origin (percent) Armenia TFYR of Macedonia Republic of Moldova Kazakhstan 26% 24% 24% 23% At least 1 person lives outside of the country for every 5 people in the country Lao PDR Afghanistan Lesotho Azerbaijan Kyrgyzstan Bhutan Paraguay Burkina Faso 19% 17% 16% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10%

14 Migrants from LLDCs contributed at least US$ 30.9 billion in 2013 Diaspora in (thousands) Remittances in (millions of US$) Remittances in GDP (percentage) Uzbekistan 1,894 6, Nepal 1,001 5, Tajikistan 603 3, Kyrgyzstan 718 2, Armenia 776 2, Republic of Moldova 851 1, Azerbaijan 1,279 1, Bolivia 767 1, Uganda Mali Afghanistan 5, Ethiopia Paraguay Lesotho All LLDCs 26,445 30, Source: World Bank, 2014

15 Remittance flows to many LLDCs have grown very rapidly over the past decades US$ billions 7 Uzbekistan Nepal Tajikistan Armenia Bolivia Uganda

16 LLDCs have some of the most and the least costly remittance corridors in the world Russia Republic of Moldova Russia Uzbekistan Brazil Bolivia UAE Nepal Saudi Arabia Nepal 2% 2% 3% 4% 4% Achieving the "5x5 objective" for reduction of remittance costs could save migrants up to $16 billionper year Brazil Paraguay World average 7% 8% South Africa Lesotho 17% South Africa Zambia South Africa Botswana South Africa Malawi 20% 20% 20% Source: World Bank, 2014

17 By 2050, the working age population in 11 LLDCs is expected to decline by at least 5 per cent owing to net migration -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% Rep. of Moldova At least 5 per cent less Kyrgyzstan Armenia Nepal Bolivia Lao PDR Tajikistan Mali Lesotho Uzbekistan Mongolia Burkina Faso Turkmenistan Paraguay TFYR Macedonia Swaziland Afghanistan Chad Rwanda Uganda Zambia Burundi Niger Ethiopia

18 However migration is not expected to have a significant impact on the size of the working age population in LLDCs overall Population aged 20-64, medium and zero net migration variant (millions) Medium Zero net migration African LLDCs Difference: 5.3 million Asian LLDCs 7.5 million European and Latin American LLDCs 1.7 million Source: United Nations, Population Division/DESA, 2013

19 Some key messages 1. Most LLDCs are both countries of origin and destination of international migrants 2. The LLDCs are characterised by high levels of intra-regional migration, often to or from another LLDC 3. Diaspora communities originating from many LLDCs are sizable 4. Migrants from LLDCs contributed US$ 30.9 billion in remittances in Migration is expected to have an impact on the size of the working age populationin some LLDCs, but overall the impact is expected to be negligible