Demography and the future of higher education

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Demography and the future of higher education"

Janice Fletcher
5 years ago
Views:

1 Demography and the future of higher education Frans Willekens NIDI 5 6 December 2005 OECD Paris

2 Main trends Low fertility in Europe and Japan Ageing Ageing scientists and teachers Globalisation Transnationalism On-line learning (and research) Female participation in education and labour force How to combine work and family? (incompatible)

3 The causes

4 Total Fertility Rate Europe N America China India Total Fertility Rate Source: United Nations,

5 Life expectancy at birth Europe N America China India Life expectancy at birth Source: United Nations,

6 Infant Mortality Rate (Deaths in first year of life per 1000 live births) A comparison: Netherlands and India

7 Survival function A comparison: Netherlands and India (period data) F 1991 AP (INDIA) M e 0 = F e 0 = e 0 = M 1991 M e 0 = e 0 =

8 The demographic consequences

9 Ageing in Japan 2002: 1.15 million births TFR = 1.32 NSSPPRI Scenario for

10 Number of births per year Source: United Nations, NUmber of births (million) Europe N America China India World

11 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Distribution of births (%) Rest of World India China N America Europe

12 Consequences for education and health

13 School population as % of total population. World Source: United Nations (2003, p. 9)

14 Distribution of school-age population by major region Source: United Nations (2003, p. 10)

15 Source: United Nations (2003, p. 11)

16 What if?

17 Source:

18 China: 5% (which is 31 million people aged years) The fact that China is developing rapidly is due to the large population base where skilled people can be drawn from. Source: Schaaper, M. AN EMERGING KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY IN CHINA? INDICATORS FROM OECD DATABASES. STI WORKING PAPER 2004/4 (Statistical Analysis of Science, Technology and Industry, OECD, Paris), 2004, p. 32

19 International migration and transnationalism

20 Migration opportunities 1 Remittances are part of labour migration IMF: Worldwide US$70 billion every year, an amount greater than total government aid to developing countries IOM estimates US$88 billion 2003: total ODA (Official Development Assistance) of 22 OECD- DAC countries reached $68.5 billion (= 0.25% of DAC members' combined gross national income) Table: : immigrants in USA sent $30 billion abroad, about twice the ODA of the USA ($15.8 billion) (US is largest donor) Europe: US$12 billion (2000) Remittances more effect on household income The worldwide cash flow (money transfer) continues to grow: movement of labour triggers movement of capital UN: IOM: International Organization for Migration (IOM) (2004) World Migration 2003: Managing Migration - Challenges and Responses for People on the Move, IOM, Geneva

21 Globalisation and migration Transnationalism: process whereby people establish and maintain sociocultural connections across geopolitical borders (Schiller et al. 1992) Migrants may simultaneously participate in several political systems, retain dual citizenship, send large amounts of money back home, and define their identities in culturally hybrid terms. Jewish of the diaspora The Overseas Chinese and Returned Overseas Chinese Non-resident Indians (NRIs) and Persons of Indian Origin (PIOs) Includes: migration, flow of remittances, social networks

22 Migration and transnationalism The Overseas Chinese and Returned Overseas Chinese 54 million at end of 1999 ( Asia (outside China and Taiwan): 27 million USA: 6 million Europe: 1 million Overseas Chinese key force in nation's revival (People s Daily Online, 21 July 2004) Overseas Chinese s investments accounts for more than 70 per cent of China's foreign investment. What about Europe?

23 Migration and transnationalism I left China with my parents when I was 13 years old and have been living since in Germany. I have now been offered the position of Finance Director in Shanghai (on a four-year assignment) by the German company I am currently working for. While I search information about Shanghai I came across this web site you may give me some advice on relocation to Shanghai and help me to make a decision whether to accept the job offer. Currently I am very comfortable with my work and private life in Germany. ( html)

Migration and transnationalism Non-resident Indians (NRIs) and Persons of Indian Origin (PIOs): 20 million (Times of India, 20 August 2004; http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/5983_960257,00430001.

24 Migration and transnationalism Non-resident Indians (NRIs) and Persons of Indian Origin (PIOs): 20 million (Times of India, 20 August 2004; Remittences/investment: US$ 15 billion per year ( Global Indian Network ( Ministry of NRI Afairs [established June 2004] create an atmosphere to facilitate NRIs and PIOs who want to have a connection with India Jagdish Tytler, Minister of State of NRI Affairs ( NRI bank account (Citibank: can be accessed and operated using the Internet, ATM centers, telephones and the Citibank NRI Service centers situated across the globe. (

25 Migration and transnationalism East African Asians in Britain The East African Asians who fled Uganda in the 1970s have contributed immeasurably to British society and in just 30 years have become one of the most economically successful migrant groups this country has ever seen. (Blair s migration speech [April 27, 2004]) At that time (1972), Uganda's then-infamous dictator, Idi Amin, gave the nearly 75,000 Ugandans of Asian descent 90 days to pack their bags and leave the country.

26 Globalisation of higher education

28 International students in higher education in the USA USA: total count of all higher education students, both domestic and international: 13.4 million In International students: thousands (2000: 586,000 [270,000 in Britain and 227,000 in Germany) Top 10 sending places of origin and percentage of total international student enrollment (in 03/04): 1. India 13.9% (80,000) 2. China 10.8% (61,000) 3. Korea, Rep. of 9.2% (52,000) 4. Japan 7.1% 5. Canada 4.7% 6. Taiwan 4.6% 7. Mexico 2.3% 8. Turkey 2% 9. Thailand 1.6% 10. Indonesia 1.6% Source: Open Doors Data: Atlas of Student Mobility,

29 Higher education and highly educated people of working age A cohort perspective

30 Transition probabilities 44% enter tertiary education Transition rates (1 and 2) Sec_Tert (1) Tert_discontinue (2) Tert_Grad (3) Transition rates (3)

31 100 Trajectories in education State occupancies 0.4 yrs 2.2% Proportion Percentage of the population aged 25 to 34 that has attained tertiary education is 28% (average OECD 2001) (Vincent-Lancrin, 2004,p.247) Tertiary not completed Tertiary completed Tertiary < Tertiary 2.1 yrs 6.4 yrs 21.1 yrs 56.5% % of the university students would be aged under 23 On average in OECD countries, a 17-year-old can expect to (Vincent-Lancrin, 2004,p.258) receive 2.5 years of tertiary education. (Vincent-Lancrin, 2004, 41.1%

32 Transition probabilities 10% enter tertiary education (China) 0.5% drop-out Transition rates (1 and 2) Sec_Tert (1) Tert_discontinue (2) Tert_Grad (3) Transition rates (3)

33 Trajectories in education State occupancies (China) yrs 1.6 yrs 10.1% Proportion Tertiary not completed Tertiary completed 27.9 yrs 89.9% Tertiary < Tertiary

34 Access to highly educated population Country A: cohort member contributes before age years as highly educated. Country B: cohort member contributes before age years as highly educated.

35 Impact of entry into tertiary education on access to highly educated population Access in person-years before age 40 Entry rate Births per year 40% 10% ( ) N America Europe China India

36 160 Contribution of birth cohorts to highly educated population under 40 (person-years) N America and Europe: 6.4 yrs China and India: 1.6 yrs Highly educated Person-years (<age 40) India China N America Europe Period of birth N America and Europe: 6.4 yrs China and India: 6.4 yrs Highly educated Person-years (<age India China N America Europe Period of birth 2050

37 Conclusion Ageing is the outcome of low fertility and increased longevity Globalisation of higher education Cost-effectiveness of higher education: cohort perspective person-years measures

38 Thank you

Source: http://www.childpolicyintl.org/contexttabledemography/table%202.

39 Source: t%20birth.pdf

Some Key Issues of Migrant Integration in Europe. Stephen Castles

Some Key Issues of Migrant Integration in Europe Stephen Castles European migration 1950s-80s 1945-73: Labour recruitment Guestworkers (Germany, Switzerland, Netherlands) Economic motivation: no family