Update on the work of the MAC. Mark Franks Head of Secretariat Migration Advisory Committee 24 March 2011

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1 Update on the work of the MAC Mark Franks Head of Secretariat Migration Advisory Committee 24 March 2011

2 Outline The MAC Data context Update on limits and Tier 2 Raising the skill level of Tier 2 Shortage occupation review The future 2

3 The Migration Advisory Committee Non-departmental public body set up in 2007 Provides evidence-based advice to Government on immigration issues Immigration experts and economists Supported by secretariat of economists, researchers and policy officials Has advised in the past on migration from the EU and through the Points Based System, including limits on Tiers 1 and 2

4 Historic net flows (annual) Long-term International Migration Net British Net EU Net non-eu Net inflow of EU = 58k LTIM (000's) Net all nationalities Total net inflow = 198k Net inflow of Non-EU = 184k Net outflow of British = 44k Source: International Passenger Survey, Office for National Statistics (UK) 4

5 Historic net flows (quarterly) Net flow (000's) A8 EU (excl A8) Non-EU British Total Net inflow of A8 = 17k Net inflow of EU (excl A8) = 40k Total net inflow = 225k YE Mar 00 YE Sep 00 YE Mar 01 YE Sep 01 YE Mar 02 YE Sep 02 YE Mar 03 YE Sep 03 YE Mar 04 YE Sep 04 YE Mar 05 YE Sep 05 YE Mar 06 YE Sep 06 YE Mar 07 YE Sep 07 YE Mar 08 YE Sep 08 YE Mar 09 YE Sep 09 YE Mar 10p Net inflow of Non-EU = 198k Net outflow of British = 30k Source: International Passenger Survey, Office for National Statistics (UK)

6 Out-of-country entry clearance visas issued to Tier 2 main applicants Entry Clearance Visas issued 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Nov, T2 worldwide launch 19 Jul, T2 General interim limits introduced Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Tier 2 - Elite Sports people Tier 2 - Ministers of Religion Tier 2 - Intra Company Transfers Tier 2 - General (RLMT and Shortage) Pre-PBS - Work permit holders

7 Out-of-country entry clearance visas issued to Tier 1 main applicants Entry Clearance Visas issued 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3, Jun, T1 worldwide 19 Jul, interim limits and increased points requirements for T1 General Tier 1 - Post Study Tier 1 - Entrepreneurs Tier 1 - Investors 2,000 1,000 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Tier 1 - General Pre-PBS - HSMP

8 Limits update Visas issued to out-of-country main applicants for Tier 1 and 2 routes within scope of limits 2009 flow Government policy MAC report Tier 1 General / Exceptional Talent 14,300 (General) 1,000 (Exceptional Talent) Option B: 43,700 Tier 2 Intracompany transfers 22,000 22,000 (not limited, but restrict by price) Tier 2 General 13,700 20,700 (Requires action to cut Tier 5 and permit free employment) Total 50,000 43,700 43,700

9 Previous Govt policy Tier 2 update MAC recommendation New Govt Intentions Limit on Tier 2 in 2011/12 No limit. 35,700 visas in ,400 32,600 Include ICTsin limit Limit of 20,700 Exclude ICTs and Points jobs > 150K to prioritise: in limit 1 st : SOL 2 nd : RLMT (PhDs) 3 rd : RLMT Resident Labour Market Test (RLMT) Shortage Occupation List (SOL) Admission with job-offer, points awarded for mix of: qualifications, prospective earnings, language plus maintenance requirement Occupation on shortage list Keep points criteria, but make more selective. Skill level could be raised Skill level could be raised. Abolish qualifications criteria Salary threshold of 20k Restrict to NQF4+ occupations. Increase English language requirement Intra-company transfers Admission with job-offer, points awarded for mix of: qualifications, prospective earnings, language, plus a maintenance requirement Keep points criteria, but limit and make more selective. Skill level could be raised Salaries 24 40K restricted to <12 months. Restrict to NQF4+ occupations. Salaries > 40K may obtain leave of up to 3 years. Restrict to NQF4+ occupations. Key: Points-based Requirement-based Limited Closed

10 Raising the skill level of Tier 2 What Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) codes should be considered as graduate level occupations for the purposes of Tier 2 of the Points Based System? (February 2011) How should the current Shortage Occupation Lists for the UK and Scotland be revised to remove jobs below graduate level? (March 2011) Relevant level is National Qualifications Framework Level 4 and above (NQF4+)

11 Indicators of skill Occupational classification Earnings Qualifications Data available for occupations at national level On-the-job training and experience Innate ability

12 Identifying skilled occupations 38% of workforce qualified to NQF4+ Assume 38% of jobs skilled to that level Implied thresholds: Highest of four skill levels in occupational classification Median hourly full-time earnings per hour or more 41% of workforce qualified to NQF4+

13 NQF4+ occupations Occupations that still qualify: Electrical engineers Medical practitioners Solicitors and lawyers, judges and coroners Occupations that no longer qualify: Hairdressing and beauty salon managers Laboratory technicians Estate agents

14 Reviewing the shortage list (job titles) for NQF4+ Stage 1: Is the occupation 1 skilled to NQF4+? Yes Job title remains on the shortage occupation list e.g. geotechnical engineer within civil engineer occupation No Stage 2: Is the entire job title skilled to NQF4+? No Yes Job title remains on the shortage occupation list e.g. commissioning engineer within engineering technicians occupation Stage 3: Is a subset of the job title skilled to NQF4+? Yes Subset of job title remains on the shortage occupation list e.g. chefs paid over 28,260 p.a. with 5+ years experience No Job title removed from the shortage occupation list e.g. senior care worker Note: (1) defined at the 4-digit SOC 2000 level

15 Implications of February and March reports 121 out of 353 occupations at NQF4 Covers 36% of UK labour market 85% of Tier 2 CoS in 2010 would still qualify; 15% would not For shortage route the figures are 35% and 65%

16 What next? Full review of shortage occupation lists (i.e. could remove or add) Occupation or job title must be skilled to NQF4+ (previously NQF3+) Must be an identified shortage of labour within the occupation or job title; and Must be sensible to address this shortage using immigration from outside the European Economic Area (EEA)

17 What else next? And further details Settlement Limits Potentially some other things