Population and sustainable development in the context of the post-2015 UN development agenda

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Population and sustainable development in the context of the post-2015 UN development agenda"

Marylou Burke
5 years ago
Views:

1 Population and sustainable development in the context of the post-2015 UN development agenda United Nations Commission on Population and Development 8 April 2014 David Lam Department of Economics and Population Studies Center University of Michigan

2 How will population affect development from 2015 to 2030? According to UN Medium Variant projections: The world will add 1.1 billion people Asia will add 500 million Sub-Saharan Africa will add 419 million How does this compare to previous 15- year periods?

3 Addition to world population for 15-year periods, Billion

4 Percentage increase in world population for 15-year periods, % 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Percentage Increase40% 33.7% 31.8% 26.0% 19.5% 15.0% 10.5%

5 World population From 1960: World population doubled in 39 years The world added 4 billion people in 51 This years will almost surely never happen again 2011: : Billion : Billion : Billion : Billion 3 Billion From 1950: UN World Population Prospects: revision

6 U.N. projections of world population to 2100 High, Medium, and Low Variants 2011: : Billion : Billion : Billion : Billion 3 Billion 0 revision Billion 10.9 Billion 6.8 Billion From 1950: UN World Population Prospects: 2012

7 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Annual growth rate of world population Pre-1950 estimates % % UN estimates and projections 0.78% 0.11% -0.5% -0.70% UN Population Division Estimates % revision

8 Rate of Natural Increase Demographic Transition World, Crude Birth Rate 10 5 Crude Death per 1000 population Rate

9 Rate of Natural Increase per 1000 population Demographic Transition Southeast Asia Crude Birth Rate Crude Death Rate

10 Birth rate Demographic Transition Sub-Saharan Africa Rate of Natural Increase Death rate per 1000 population

11 Overview of last 50 years World population grew faster than it has ever grown before or ever will grow again. Broadly similar patterns of population change across developing countries. Key exception is slower fertility decline in Sub-Saharan Africa This period should be important in understanding links between population and development.

12 What happened to food availability during this period of unprecedented population growth?

13 World Food Production (1961=100) Food and Agriculture Organization

14 South Asia Food Production (1961=100) Food and Agriculture Organization

15 Africa Food Production (1961=100) Food and Agriculture Organization

16 What has happened to poverty?

17 Percent in Poverty, Low and Middle Income Countries < $1.25 per day < $2.00 per day World Bank estimates % 20.6%

18 Percent in Poverty by Region, <$1.25 per day Latin America East Asia World Bank estimates Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia

19 Number in Poverty (Billions) Low and Middle Income Countries < $2.00 per day < $1.25 per day < $1.25 per day (excluding China) World Bank estimates

20 What has happened to education in developing countries?

21 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Percentage of cohort with primary schooling, Brazil Femal e Male Note that school-aged population grew at close to 4% per year for much of this period Census data via IPUMS- International Year age 10 72% 64%

22 Proportion of cohort with primary schooling, Thailand Male Femal e Similar patters are seen in all regions, including Africa rapid increases in schooling, with narrowing of gender gap Census data via IPUMS- International Year age 10 22

23 Fertility decline and investments in children Increase in education is directly related to declines in fertility Transition from large numbers of children with low investments to smaller families with higher investments This is a major component of economic development

24 Lessons of last 50 years Unprecedented population growth did not lead to increases in starvation or poverty or stagnation in education Reasons Major technological advances Market responses Globalization Declines in fertility, increases in education Many caveats: Unequal outcomes across countries and within countries Environmental problems, climate change Recent increases in commodity prices

25 Post-2015 Demographic Change Demography of children and youth Demography of working-age population Regional variation Implications for Post-2015 Development Goals

26 Billion World population by age, Medium variant projections 65+ Working age (15-64) Children (0-14)

27 Billion World population by age, Middle working age (25-44) Children (0-14) 2030 Total increase=1.1 billion (15.0%) Older working age (45-64) Youth (15-24) (61.0%) (24.8%) (9.4%) (7.3%) (4.0%)

28 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% Increase in population 0-14 over 15 year periods 41% 18% 12% 3% 4% World 54% 26% 47% 19% 10% 10% -3% -6% Latin America Asia -5% -5% 49% 56% 46% 44% 32% SS Africa

29 Implications for development goals Rate of growth of child population is much lower than in previous decades. This should make it easier to make further progress on goals such as reduction of child mortality, universal primary education Some regions, including Sub-Saharan Africa, will continue to have rapid growth of children and youth populations (but at lower rates than previous periods)

30 Population and employment, David Lam and Murray Leibbrandt, Global Demographic Trends and Their Implications for Employment, background paper prepared for the High Level Panel on the Post-2015 Development Agenda, May 2013

31 Increase in working-age population (15-64) over 15 year periods 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 51% 45% 41% 39% 32% 29% 27% 25% 14% 14% 54% 52% 53% 47% 47% 38% 36% 33% 26% 11% % World Latin America Asia SS Africa

32 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% Growth of working-age population, Total % 14% 14% 7% 9% 11% -4% 34% 11% -1% 5% 27% 53% 53% 46% 65%

33 Demography of labor market The world s working-age population will increase by 650 million, a 14% increase We will need over 40 million jobs per year to maintain current employment rates Sub-Saharan Africa will need 1.6 million new jobs per month by This is a challenge, but: Working-age population increased by 960 million between 2000 and 2015, an increase of 25% Youth component is growing at a slower rate than overall working-age population in all regions

34 Population and Development Reasons for optimism The world experienced its largest improvements in standards of living during a period of even more rapid population growth Child and youth populations have stopped growing in most regions, relieving pressure on health services, schools, and youth employment Remaining challenges Continued rapid growth of children and youth in some regions mean that we will need increased investments in child health, schooling, and employment creation An extra 1.1 billion people will continue to put pressure on resources and environment,

The Demography of the Labor Force in Sub- Saharan Africa

The Demography of the Labor Force in Sub- Saharan Africa David Lam Department of Economics and Population Studies Center University of Michigan Conference on Labor Markets in Western Africa: Evidence and