Armenia National Study

Transcription

1 Armenia National Study October 7 November, 007 International Republican Institute Baltic Surveys Ltd. / The Gallup Organization Armenian Sociological Association with funding from the United States Agency for International Development

2 METHODOLOGY This national representative survey was conducted on October 7 November, 007, by the Armenian Sociological Association (ASA) for Baltic Surveys/Gallup on behalf of the International Republican Institute. The sample consisted of,00 Armenian residents over the age of 8 and eligible to vote and is representative of the general population by age, gender, education and religion. The sample design was a multi-stage random sample. Stage One: Break country into official administrative regions. Stage Two: Select clusters of sampling points based on settlement population (large, medium, small towns and villages). One sample point = approximately one percent of survey population (0- surveys). Sampling points in each region were selected based on the percentage of population living in the various levels of settlement in that same region. Respondents were selected by the random route method, using the next birthday rule to select a respondent from within a household. Data is collected through face-to-face interviews with the respondents. Poll was conducted nationwide, including the capital and all major regional centers. The margin of error does not exceed three percent. IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007

3 SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHICS IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007

4 Gender Male 7% Female % 0+ % Age groups 8-9 7% 0-9 % IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007

5 Unfinished higher % University, higher 7% Education Primary % Unfinished secondary % Vocational 0% Secondary % Household Size Five 9% Six % Seven and more 7% One 6% Four % Three 6% Two % IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007

6 Nongovernmental % Sector of Employment Don't work % State % Private 0% Member of nongovernmental organization % Membership in Organizations Member of a party % None 88% IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007 6

7 Religion None % Other % Other Christian 0.% Yezidi 0.% Armenian Apostolic 97% Attendance of Religious Service A few times a week % Once a week 9% Once a month % Every Day 0.% Never 0% A few times per year 6% IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007 7

8 Capital 6% Type of Settlement Rural % Towns 0% Yerevan 6% Regions West Center 9% South 7% North % East 7% IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007 8

9 MOOD OF THE COUNTRY IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007 9

10 Generally speaking, do you think that things in Armenia are going in the right direction or wrong direction? Right direction Wrong direction Don't know, no answer Oct Jul Mar Nov Aug May IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007 0

11 Over the last three months, the economic situation in Armenia has Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know, no answer Oct Jul Mar Nov Aug May IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007

12 Over the last three months, the financial situation of your household has... Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know, no answer Oct Jul Mar Nov Aug May IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007

13 How satisfied are you with the way democracy is developing in Armenia? Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied DK/NA Oct Jul Mar Nov Aug May IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007

14 Do you believe that things will get better in a short time, or will it take a long time for things to get better in the country? Short time Long time Not sure/refused Oct Jul Mar Nov Aug May IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007

15 What are your personal expectations for the future of Armenia? No answer Total disbelief in any improvement Insecurity, fear for future Apathy Not much hope for the future Hope that the future will be somewhat better Oct. 007 Jul. 007 Mar. 007 Nov. 006 Aug. 006 May 006 IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October Belief that the future will definitely be better

16 Are you optimistic or pessimistic for the future? Optimism Neutral Pessimism Oct Jul Mar Nov Aug May IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007 6

17 Over the last year, your attitude towards the way things are developing in Armenia has become DK/NA More pessimistic Stayed the same More optimistic Oct. 007 Jul. 007 Mar. 007 Nov. 007 Aug. 006 May 006 IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007 7

18 ISSUES IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007 8

19 What are the main problems Armenia is facing at the moment? October 007 Unemployment Social-economic situation Problem of Nagorno Karabakh Development of the economy, industry Corruption Increase of pensions, salaries Recognition of genocide Foreign policy Migration 7 Change of the government, elections Wrong internal policy Implementation of laws First mention Educational issues, culture Stability All mentions Turkish blockade Other 6 DK/NA 8 8 * Between Armenia and Azerbaijan engaged in military conflict for possession of this disputed territory IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October

20 What are three main problems you would say your town/village is facing at the moment? October 007 Unemployment 7 Transport, road conditions 0 Sanitation Housing, communal services 0 8 Development of economy / industry / agriculture 8 Low salaries, pensions, high prices Ecology 8 Creation of places for entertainment, leisure 8 Illegal construction 6 Problem of education Maintenance of apartments First mention Corruption All mentions Implementing the laws, protection of human rights Migration Other 8 9 DK/NA 9 IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007 0

21 What are the three most important problems for you and your household members? October 007 Social-economic situation Unemployment Education, health Low salary Maintenance of apartments Labour migration/migration Decision of communal problems Housing, communal services No problems Unsatisfactory communal services Other DK/NA First mention All mentions IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007

22 Thinking about the current situation and future of your country, what are the three things that you are most afraid of? October 007 War 9 Unemployment Problems of Nagorno Karabakh 0 Social-economic situation 7 6 Corruption Migration 6 Not developing of economy Lack of recognition of the genocide Bad relations with other countries Bad ecological situation First mention All mentions Elections National calamities, epidemy Other DK/NA 9 8 IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007

23 POLITICS IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007

24 What should the Armenian government accomplish first to attract the support of the majority of the Armenian population? October 007 Create jobs Fulfill promises Improve social-economic situation Increase salaries, pensions Improve living conditions Fight corruption Develop economy Stabilize prices Increase Democracy Implement laws Reverse poor policies Return Soviet era banking deposits Lower taxes Slow migration from Armenia Improvement of the educational system Solve the problem of Nagorno Karabakh Other DK/NA IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October First mention All mentions

25 How much interest do you have in politics? Low interest Medium interest High interest DK/NA Oct Jul Mar Nov Aug May IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007

26 Do you plan on voting in the next presidential election? Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no Have not decided DK/NA Jul Oct IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007 6

27 When considering which party to vote for, what is more important? Leader is more important Party is more important None No answer Oct Jul Mar Nov Aug May IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007 7

28 All other things being equal, would you vote for More active, younger candidate More experienced, older Does not matter No answer Oct Jul Mar. 007 Nov Aug. 006 May IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007 8

29 All other things being equal, would you vote for Male Female Does not matter No answer Oct Jul Mar Nov Aug May IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007 9

30 What are the major mistakes and failures of the Armenian authorities over the last year? October 007 Did not prevent rise of prices 6 Did not fight enough against corruption 8 Failed to address economic and business issues 8 Sale of important objects Ignored laws Initiated unnecessary construction Lack of attention to people First mention Falsification of the 00 constitutional referendum All mentioned Growth in unemployment Not fulfilling promises Legal infrigements All steps Other 7 9 DK/NA IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October

31 The wrongdoing and corruption of political leaders and authorities is Very serious problem Rather serious problem Not very serious problem Not a problem at all DK/NA Oct Jul Mar Nov Aug May IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007

32 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007

33 How would you evaluate the current state of relations between Armenia and each of the following? October 007 Good Bad Neither good nor bad DK/NA Russia 9 Iran 87 6 European Union 8 9 USA Georgia 6 8 Turkey 90 Azerbaijan IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007

34 Which countries are the most important partners for Armenia? Which comprise the greatest political and economic threat? Partners Threats Russia France Iran European Union USA Georgia Turkey Azerbaijan None DK/NA IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007

35 How important is it for Armenia to solve the problems related to Nagorno Karabakh in the near future? Very important Rather important Not very important Not at all important DK / NA Oct Jul Mar Nov Aug May % 0% 0% 60% 80% 00% IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007

36 Regarding the future of Nagorno Karabakh, do you think it should Oct. 007 Jul. 007 Mar. 007 Nov. 006 Aug. 006 May Be an ordinary region of Armenia, without any autonomy Be an autonomous region of the Armenian state Be an independent country Be a part of Azerbaijan DK/NA IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007 6

37 Do you think that the current situation in regard to the status of Nagorno Karabakh should be resolved through negotiations and peaceful means, or should some force be used if necessary? Oct Jul Mar Nov Aug May Negotiations and peaceful means Using force if necessary DK/NA IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007 7

38 Do you think that a peaceful settlement on Nagorno Karabakh can be reached with Azerbaijan without military force being used? Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no DK/NA Oct Jul Mar Nov Aug May IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007 8

39 In your opinion, does the presence of a Russian military base in Armenia have a positive or negative influence on Armenian independence and stability in the country? Positive influence Neither positive nor negative Both positive and negative Negative influence DK/NA Oct Jul Mar Nov Aug May IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007 9

40 Should the government of Armenia agree to open the border for trade, etc., with Turkey even if the Turkish government does not recognize the genocide? Should open the border regardless Should not open the border DK/NA Oct Jul. 007 Mar. 007 Nov Aug May IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007 0

41 Do you have friends or relatives working abroad? Yes No Oct Jul Mar Nov Aug May IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007

42 Do you personally benefit from remittances being sent from friends or relatives working abroad? (Those who have friends or relatives abroad) Yes No Oct. 007 (N=68) 0 0 Jul. 007 (N=690) Mar. 007 (N=796) 8 Nov. 006 (N=797) 6 Aug. 006 (N=780) May 006 (N=77) IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007

43 In which countries do you have relatives working? (N=68) Russia 69 USA 0 France Germany Belgium Greece Ukraine Commonwealth of Independent States Spain Austria Holland Canada 6 Poland Italy Other DK/NA 7 IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007

44 Do you think Russia is a trustworthy ally of Armenia? Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no DK/NA Oct. 007 Jul Mar Nov Aug May IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007

45 In your opinion, should Armenia in the future October 007 Join NATO 9 Join European Union 9 6 Remain a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States 6 7 Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no DK/NA IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007

46 INSTITUTIONS IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007 6

47 What is your opinion about the work of each of these institutions? October 007 European Union 8 Commonwealth of Independent States 8 United Nations Organization 8 6 Church 8 7 Army 79 8 Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe 76 0 Armenian media 6 Educational system 60 7 NATO 0 President's office 9 6 Central bank 8 Government (Cabinet of Ministers) 9 6 Police 9 9 Political parties 6 Armenian Parliament 8 9 Favorable Unfavorable No opinion IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007 7

48 SITUATION OF SOCIAL GROUPS IN ARMENIA IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007 8

49 Are the needs of the following social groups considered in Armenia? October 007 Youth 0 6 Elderly Women Disabled 7 6 War veterans 8 6 Refugees Considered Partially Not considered at all DK/NA IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007 9

50 What is the prevailing attitude of the Armenian population towards disabled persons in Armenia? Oct. 007 Jul Mar Very positive Rather positive Rather negative Very negative DK/NA IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007 0

51 In your opinion, do disabled people in Armenia have adequate access to the social services? DK/NA The majority of disabled people have no adequate access to social services Oct. 007 Jul Mar. 007 Only some services are accessable for disabled people The majority of social services are accessable for disabled people IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007

52 Who holds the primary responsibility for taking care of the needs of the disabled? Government of Armenia Family members, relatives Local government Nongovernmental Organizations Oct. 007 Jul. 007 Mar. 007 Political parties Other IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007

53 Do the following properly take care of the needs and problems of disabled people in Armenia? October 007 Yes No DK/NA Family members, relatives 9 Nongovernmental Organizations 9 7 Government of Armenia 7 8 Political parties 70 7 Local government 7 6 IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007

54 Which institutions, organizations, and nongovernmental organizations care about the needs and problems of disabled people in Armenia? October 007 Red Cross Pyunik organization for the disabled Prosperous Armenia Party Paros Bridge of Hope World Vision Union of the Disabled United Nations Government of Armenia Other DK/NA 67 IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007

55 In your opinion, do disabled people in Armenia have adequate opportunities for active participation in political life? Oct Jul Mar Yes, have all opportunities No, have no opportunities Yes, have some opportunities DK/NA IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007

56 In your opinion, do disabled members of society in Armenia face challenges in finding employment opportunities? DK/NA 60 No, they do not have the difficulties Yes, they have some difficulties Yes, they have major difficulties 0 Oct. 007 Jul. 007 IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007 6

57 In your opinion, do people who use wheelchairs have adequate access to public places? 00 DK/NA No, they do not have adequate access in the majority of places 0 Yes, they have access but only in some places 0 6 Yes, they have an adequate access in a majority of places 0 Oct. 007 Jul. 007 IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007 7

58 Do members of society who are disabled face challenges in seeking higher education? DK/NA 60 No, they do not have difficulties 0 Yes, they have some difficulties 0 7 Yes, they have major difficulties 0 Oct. 007 Jul. 007 IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007 8

59 HEROES OF OUR TIMES IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007 9

60 Of the prominent Armenian people and characters in Armenian history and folk culture, who is most suitable to be a national hero or leader in the present? Vazgen Sargsyan Andranik Karen Demirchyan Garegin Njdeh Tigran Metz Vardan Mamikonyan Charles Aznavour Drastamat "Dro" Kanayan Monte Melkonyan Viktor Hambarzumyan IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007 Gevork Chaust Marshal Baghramyan Serg Sargsyan Other None DK/NA 60

61 Tolerance It is a good thing for any society to be made up of people from different religions Armenia has always consisted of various cultural and religious groups 7 In order to be fully accepted members of Armenian society, people belonging to minority groups must give-up such parts of their religion or culture which may be in conflict with Armenian tradition 9 9 Armenia has reached its limits; if there were to be more people belonging to religious minorities we would have problems 0 9 Whether people belonging to religious minority groups can be fully accepted as members of Armenian society depends on the group of which they are a part 7 9 Tend to agree Tend to disagree DK/NA IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007 6

62 SOURCES OF INFORMATION IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007 6

63 Which of these sources do you use to obtain political information? TV - news, programs Relatives, friends Articles in newspapers Radio - news, programs 0 8 Colleagues at work 0 9 Meetings with politicians 7 Oct. 007 Billboards, stands in the streets Internet Jul. 007 Articles in magazines 6 Leaflets, and other free information by post 7 IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007 6

64 In general, how much influence does each of these forms of election campaigning have on you during a political campaign? October 007 Meetings with politicians Meetings with/opinions of respected people 6 8 TV ads Visits of party or candidate representatives to your home Articles in the newspapers about the candidates Personal letters to you from the candidate Telephone calls to your home from the political party or candidate 6 8 Billboards 6 Slogans, texts on public transport Paid ads in the media for the candidate or party 9 Leaflets Radio ads Great influence Some influence Not much influence No influence at all DK/NA IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007 6

65 How well do you recall the means of communication used during the last parliamentary election campaign? TV ads Leaflets Articles in newspapers about the candidates Slogans, texts on public transport 6 Paid ads in media for the candidate or party Billboards IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October 007 Oct. 007 Jul. 007 Mar. 007 Nov

66 How well do you recall the means of communication used during the last parliamentary election campaign? (continued) Meetings with politicians you participated in Radio ads Meetings with popular people you participated in Visits of party or candidate representatives to your home Telephone calls to your home from the political party or candidate Personal letters to you from the candidate IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October Oct. 007 Jul. 007 Mar. 007 Nov

67 In your opinion, are people in Armenia afraid to openly express their political views? Majority are afraid Many are afraid Some are afraid Nobody is afraid DK/NA Oct Jul Mar Nov Aug May IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October

68 Do you think that the Armenian government is implementing anti-fraud measures for the presidential election and that they will indeed be free and fair? Oct Jul Yes, it is implementing measures of this kind and there will be improvement No, it is not sincere and there will not be improvement DK/NA IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL STUDY, October