Polymer markets in Latin America: Market Prospects and Growing Opportunities
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1 Polymer markets in Latin America: Market Prospects and Growing Opportunities Polymer Sourcing and Distribution 2016 Philadelphia, October 2016 Esteban Sagel, Principal
2 A new partner in research Market Research Services Supply, Demand & Price Forecasting & Modeling Training Founded in 2016 More than 20 years of experience throughout the petrochemical industry value chain, spanning chemical producers, polymer converters and consumer product companies Areas of expertise include end use demand analysis, competitive landscape, cost & pricing, logistics Development and implementation of single and multi client solutions, anchored in industry experience cutting edge approaches From basic industry principles to complex market research and analysis techniques, our training courses will improve your team proficiency and expertise Three areas of expertise: Market Research; Supply, Demand and Price Forecasting and Modeling; Training Additional information:
3 Latin America: A Great Market 617 million consumers With a few exceptions, politically stable Large economy 5.8 trillion GDP* Economy expanded by 20% between 2000 and 2015 Commodities fueled growth *World Bank s World Development Indicators Database, 2010 Dollars
4 Latin America: A Great Market? Really? Fragmented South America concentrates 68% of the population and 74% of the economic output World Bank s World Development Indicators Database 2015 estimates (Population light color, GDP dark color)
5 Latin America: A Great Market? Really? 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2015 Latin American GDP vs AAGR Uneven growth The largest economic block (South America) has shown the poorest growth rate in Latin America; commodity exports impacted the most by global economic woes 1.0% 0.0% $- $2.00 $4.00 $6.00 Trillions World Bank s World Development Indicators Database; ChemPMC estimates 2010 Dollars
6 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 Latin America: A Great Market? Really? Latin American Per Capita GDP Constant 2010 Dollars $ Caribbean Mercosur Northern South America Central America Mexico Pacific Coast Even within South America, economic growth uneven Mercosur dragged down by Brazil s recession; Northern South America affected by Venezuela World Bank s World Development Indicators Database; ChemPMC estimates
7 More than one market Mexico Central America Caribbean Northern South America Uneven economic growth, logistical barriers & differentiated trade pattern call for a different slicing of the region Pacific Coast Mercosur Polymer price patterns and consumption trends track closely these unofficial regions within the region
8 Polymer S & D 101: P+I-D-E=Δi Next The key equation for polymer markets D=P+I-E-Δi Demand Consumption No finished/semifinished goods considered We are talking pellets Δi typically assumed to be zero; changes D to be apparent consumption Per Capita Demand and Per Capita GDP follow a logistic curve relationship Net Import (I-E) is key for this audience, as it takes out intraregional trade
9 Logistic Curve Demand Per Capita Vs. GDP Per Capita
10 Logistic Curve Demand Per Capita Vs. GDP Per Capita (RSq: 89%) Demand Per Capita Forecast Versus Actual Model Actual Data BACK
11 What about production? Mexico: PE, PP, PVC, PS, PET Colombia: PE, PP, PVC, PS, PET Chile: PP Venezuela: PE, PP, PVC, PS Argentina: PE, PP, PVC, PS, PET Brazil: PE, PP, PVC, PS, PET Only a few countries with installed capacity Hydrocarbon availability is a risk for traders & distributors Failure to push projects forward in the past expected to continue Projects in U.S. discourage investment (polyolefins) Argentina most likely location for new investments
12 Trade Where s the beef? 2015 Polymer Net Imports by Region Vs. AAGR % 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% Thousand Tons DESA/UNSD, United Nations Comtrade Database, ChemPMC estimates
13 Trade Where s the beef? 2015 Polymer Net Imports by Region Vs. AAGR % 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% Pacific Coast Central America Caribbean Mercosur Northern South America Mexico Total Latin America Net Imports by Polymer Vs. AAGR % 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% Acrylic Polymers Polymers of Styrene Polymers of Propylene Polymers of VAM Polymers of VCM Polymers of Ethylene Polyacetals, Polyesters & Polycarbonates Total All Polymers DESA/UNSD, United Nations Comtrade Database, ChemPMC estimates
14 Polyethylene: New Capacity Impact Net Imports, Polymers of Ethylene Mexico Net Imports, Polymers of Ethylene Central America Mercosur Mexico Pacific Coast Potential Net Imports, No Domestic Capacity Additions Latin America Forecast World Bank s World Development Indicators Database ; DESA/UNSD, United Nations Comtrade Database; ChemPMC estimates
15 Polypropylene: Cost Competitiveness Helps Net Imports, Polymers of Propylene Net Import Change Mexico Latin America Central America Mercosur Mexico Pacific Coast Latin America Caribbean Central America Mercosur Pacific Coast Northern South America World Bank s World Development Indicators Database ; DESA/UNSD, United Nations Comtrade Database; ChemPMC estimates
16 Vinyls - Economic Downturn Impact Net Imports, Polymers of VCM Central America Mexico Latin America Mercosur Pacific Coast Brazilian economic downturn affecting growth prospects Mexico expands, due to production issues related to recent accident in the country Steady but not strong growth World Bank s World Development Indicators Database ; DESA/UNSD, United Nations Comtrade Database; ChemPMC estimates
17 Growth: Central America & Pacific Polyethylene: down but not out 2015 to 2018 Polymer Import Growth Polymer Imports Latin America Caribbean Central America Mercosur Mexico Northern South America Pacific Coast Latin America Polymers of Ethylene Polymers of Propylene Polymers of Ethylene Polymers of Propylene Polymers of Styrene Polymers of VCM Polymers of Styrene Polymers of VCM Polymers of VAM Acrylic Polymers Polymers of VAM Acrylic Polymers Polyacetals, Polyester & Polycarbonate Polyacetals, Polyester & Polycarbonate World Bank s World Development Indicators Database ; DESA/UNSD, United Nations Comtrade Database; ChemPMC estimates
18 Who s poised to take advantage of the opportunities? Changes in the Horizon US projects Asian oversupply Middle East looking for new markets Change in trade patterns Opportunities?
19 How to position to take advantage Key Ingredients Local presence In today and out tomorrow does not work well Relationships are key - Trust Price driven, but service needs to be there
20 In Summary Latin America: attractive market, but not without issues Fragmented from an economic/population and trade standpoint Affected by global economic malaise; largest economic block (Mercosur) drags down the region Capacity stagnant, with few exceptions. U.S. expansions discourage investments in gas-based projects Mexico, Central America and Pacific Coast largest & fastest in net import growth Polyethylene key component of regional deficit; investment in Mexico dragging down growth Polypropylene: cost competitiveness and lack of investments fueling growth PVC: affected by economic growth in Brazil Changing trade patterns present opportunities; local presence and trust key ingredients for success
21 Many Thanks! Visit us at See you at APLA Buenos Aires, November 19 to 22
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