Chapitre IV L expérimental aux confins de l économie
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1 Chapitre IV L expérimental aux confins de l économie Où l on rapporte une expérience économique dont l objet est de développer l esprit civique et plus généralement la paix. Où l on explore si l expérience de l économie- peut affecter les comportements individuels, à travers les croyances qu ils forgent dans leur gestion économique. Ce chapitre reprend une ligne de recherche innovante de M. Shayo qui étudie les effets de l exposition aux marchés financiers sur les votes et les attitudes politiques. Automne 2018 Université de Tours - A. Chassagnon
2 Copyright Plusieurs sources de ce chapitre empruntent des écrits de Moses Shayo (The Hebrew University of Jerusalem), tirés de sa présentation Intitulée Valuing Peace : The Effects of Financial Market Exposure on Votes and Political Attitudes, qu il a présenté en 2018 dans le séminaire "Behavior" à PSE Une de ses études : Valuing Peace : The Effects of Financial Market Exposure on Votes and Political Attitudes est en révision dans American Economic Review, 2018
3 Plan du Cours : 0 Le sujet 1 Mesurer une idée ancienne 2 Exposition au marché financier et choix politiques 3 Le context du conflit israelo-palestinien 4 Les data utilisés 5 Les recommandations de politique économique
4 0. Le sujet La passion économique, l effet qu encourent ceux qui la poursuivent
5 The main impact of The Wealth of Nations was to establish a powerful economic justification for the untrammeled pursuit of individual self-interest, whereas in the earlier literature... the stress was on the political effects of this pursuit Hirschman (1977), The Passions and the Interests, p. 100
6 1. Mesurer une idée ancienne
7 Une idée ancienne, controversée L esprit de commerce entraine avec soi celui de frugalité, d économie, de modération, de travail, de sagesse, de tranquillité, d ordre & de règle. Montesquieu (1748), De l esprit des lois The bourgeoisie... has left remaining no other nexus between man and man than naked self-interest, than callous "cash payment." It has drowned the most heavenly ecstasies of religious fervour, of chivalrous enthusiasm, of philistine sentimentalism, in the icy water of egotistical calculation. Marx and Engels (1848), The Communist Manifesto
8 Une idée récente qui pourrait être controversée The monetary union has always been about forging peace. Jean-Claude Juncker, 2013, à propos de l intégration européenne Social Security privatization would create more stock owners, and more stock owners would mean a larger Republican base. Grover Norquist, 2005, à propos de la privatisation de la sécurité sociale
9 Comprendre l impact de l exposition au marché économique How do Markets Shape Human Values? what are the causal effects of market interaction on individual-level choices and attitudes towards conflict
10 Deux hypothèses vont être étudiées La violence (guerre) peut affecter l utilité, formellement, U = u(x) V = v(p, R, φ) où φ est un paramètre macro (plus ou moins de paix) qui affecte l environnement économique L expérience de l économie conduit à réaliser l impact de la violence dans le contexte économique, formellement, U = u(x) V = v(p, R, e φ) où e, est un paramètre d expérience de l agent, qui affecte par exemple ses anticipations,...
11 Littérature Conflit et sous développement (macro) An important body of work shows that places that experienced violence historically tend to be more prone to future violence a parallel literature examines how economic interests may offset these passions and mitigate violence Violation du Théorème de Coase Si les coûts de transaction sont nuls et si les droits de propriété sont bien définis, il en résultera une allocation efficace. On peut définir de manière générique ces coûts comme l ensemble des coûts engendrés par la coordination entre les agents. Il peut s agir par exemple des coûts liés à l incertitude qui requiert que l agent s informe avant de réaliser une transaction économique. Il peut s agir également des coûts liés à la négociation et à la rédaction d un contrat.
12 2. Exposition au marché financier et choix politiques
13 How do Markets Shape Human Values? Problem: market interaction (and type of interaction) in naturally occurring data is correlated with many confounding (unobserved) factors. Solution: use financial interactions, randomly assigned. Allows exposure to the broad economy By varying assets can control important aspects of economic interaction Natural, real-world Important: Finance is increasingly hard to ignore...
14 Mécanismes sous-jacent Plus de richesse est associée à plus de prise de risque by allowing individuals to share in the future gains from the economy and exposing them to novel risks and broader economic considerations,... Les choix politiques des individus sont marqués par leur connaissance du risque et par leur aversion au risque... financial assets can also align interests against conflict and in favor of beneficial reforms exposure to novel financial assets appears to have had historical suc- cess at mitigating social conflict in three revolutionary states that subsequently led the world in economic growth : England, the
15 Investment in Stocks is Widespread Fraction of Households who Directly Hold Stocks (%) Source: Giannetti and Koskinen, 2010 Investor Protection, Equity Returns, and Financial Globalization Journal of Financial and Qualitative Analysis.
16 Investment in Stocks a Growing Phenomenon
17 What we do Randomly assign individuals stocks/vouchers to invest in stocks Using nationally representative samples & substantial sums Encourage them to trade on our own platform for several weeks. Follow their attitudes, dispositions, and behavior. 1. In Israel: around the last general elections (March 2015) 2. In the UK: around the Brexit vote (June 2016)
18 Does exposure to financial markets change political behavior? Exposure Endogenous in any observational data both who invests and in what assets Randomly assign voters to financial assets. Encourage them to trade during a period of 4-7 weeks Israeli stocks Palestinian stocks Cash that can be used to buy stocks Control Outcomes: votes and attitudes Main outcome: vote in the March 2015 Israeli general elections Other measures: self-reported attitudes towards peace deal and economic policy
19 3. L expérience de choix de portefeuille dans le context du conflit israelo-palestinien
20 Experimental design Population: Jewish Israeli citizens that participate in a large internet panel Invited to a study on investor behavior Consent; complete baseline surveys Enter a lottery to win financial assets that track Israeli and foreign stocks from the region. If win: notified on asset allocation and quizzed on understanding rules
21 L expérience du marché financier Les participants à l étude reçoivent un certain portefeuille composés à partir d un ensemble fini de titres, Pendant six semaines, Ils doivent chaque semaine se connecter sur le site de l étude qui indique la valeur du titre, et peuvent, sur ce site faire des achats et ventes, aux valeurs de marché retenues par le site de l étude S ils ne se connectent pas, pendant une semaine, ils perdent 10% de la valeur de leur portefeuille.
22 Here is a list of all the assets participating Both company stocks and index funds (explained). Note the asset you won and the # of shares you own. If the price of your asset increases, the value of your assets will increase accordingly. If the price goes down total value in NIS total value in JOD # shares current price in JOD
23 Un Sondage extérieur sur les participants à l étude Important de noter que si les participants à l étude sont des habitués des sondages et des expériences, marketing, très peu d entre eux, moins de 5 % avaient déjà pris des positions sur le marché financier. On retrouve ces mêmes participants sur d autres sondages, et les sondés ne savent pas que les deux expériences sont conduites par la même équipe. En particulier, on les retrouve sur un sondage politique, donnant des intentions de vote, mais aussi des comportements politiques, liés à la paix.
24
25 Experimental design (continued) Two parallel sets of surveys: Weekly financial surveys (decisions) Informed of performance; enter trading decisions. Social/political surveys and an information survey. Over-sample non-orthodox center voters at twice their vote share (by vote in 2013) Arguably the most important voters 1345 individuals completed baseline financial and social surveys. Block randomization to treatments Stratify on: 2013 vote, sex, traded stocks, geographical region, discrepancies, risk aversion.
26 Treatments Consent & baseline financial & baseline social N=1345 Treatment 1036 High Value (NIS 400) Low Value (NIS 200) Israeli Stock Palestinian Stock Vouchers Control 309 TA25, Bank Leumi, Bezeq PLE index, BOP, PALTEL Can trade for TA25 Early (March 12) 346 Late (April 2) 690
27 Finally, about half of the participants in the treatment group were given assets initially valued at NIS 200 (around $50), with the rest valued at NIS 400 (around $100). While these sums are not large they are comparable to the average Israeli daily wage of around NIS 312 in December 2014 they are quite significant compared to typical stakes in experimental economics, as well as relative to the standard pay of NIS 0.1 per question these participants receive for our and other surveys.
28
29 The Israeli-Palestinian conflict More than 80 years of repeated violence from before the state of Israel was established Exposure to violence shown to have persistent effects on attitudes and behavior Berrebi & Klor (2008), Shayo & Zussman (2011, 2017). Often considered intractable.
30 Political context Previous elections in 2013 Coalition govt, headed by Netanyahu, includes centrist parties Yesh Atid and Hatnuaa. Lots of internal quarreling, culminating in Netanyahu firing the top two ministers from the above parties on December 2, 2014, effectively calling new elections. Elections held March 17, 2015.
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