DEMOCRATIC DISTRICTS THAT VOTED AGAINST QUESTION 2. Analysis by Nick Murray and Liam Sigaud The Maine Heritage Policy Center

Transcription

1 DEMOCRATIC DISTRICTS THAT VOTED AGAINST QUESTION 2 Analysis by Nick Murray and Liam Sigaud The Maine Heritage Policy Center

2 A Note on Methodology: Limited availability of precinct-level data meant that special adjustments had to be made in analyzing the voting results in districts that include part but not all of a municipality. Including the entire town in the district s vote count would have skewed the results by adding votes that do not apply to that district. To address this challenge, albeit imperfectly, the part of a town in a given district was weighed according to the share of the vote in that town counted in the legislative district of interest. For instance, Westbrook is split between Senate districts 25 and 28. Data from the Secretary of State s office indicates that 26% of the Westbrook vote for Senate was cast in district 25, while 74% was cast in district 28. As a result, we assumed that the share of Westbrook vote on Question 2 cast in Senate districts 25 and 28 was 26% and 74%, respectively. While this technique assumes that both parts of Westbrook voted in percentage terms the same on Question 2, this adjustment does allow us to weigh the total vote count properly. The municipal-level data compiled by the Secretary of State s office and used in this analysis omits certain miniscule plantations, townships, and parts of the Unorganized Territories perhaps because no votes were recorded there. Census data was used to confirm that the population in these areas typically less than 100 and often less than 10 was so small as to have no discernable impact on our analysis. Page 1 of 9

3 Senate Results Senate District 2: Michael Carpenter (D) Yes 45.1% No 54.9% Amity 37.9% 62.1% Blaine 39.3% 60.7% Bridgewater 41.5% 58.5% Carroll Plantation 38.3% 61.7% Cary Plantation 45.8% 54.2% Chapman 48.7% 51.3% Crystal 45.0% 55.0% Drew Plantation 12.5% 87.5% Dyer Brook 43.3% 56.7% Easton 44.2% 55.8% Fort Fairfield 52.7% 47.3% Glenwood Plantation 100.0% 0.0% Hammond 40.0% 60.0% Haynesville 38.0% 62.0% Hersey 32.4% 67.6% Hodgdon 37.4% 62.6% Houlton 50.3% 49.7% Island Falls 40.1% 59.9% Kingman Township 35.2% 64.8% Lakeville 45.8% 54.2% Lee 37.1% 62.9% Linneus 42.7% 57.3% Littleton 43.6% 56.4% Ludlow 50.4% 49.6% Macwahoc Plantation 36.4% 63.6% Mars Hill 37.6% 62.4% Merrill 41.6% 58.4% Monticello 42.6% 57.4% Moro Plantation 7.4% 92.6% Mount Chase 42.1% 57.9% New Limerick 42.4% 57.6% Oakfield 46.2% 53.8% Page 2 of 9

4 Orient 38.2% 61.8% Patten 38.4% 61.6% Prentiss Township 42.9% 57.1% Presque Isle 49.5% 50.5% Reed Plantation 38.0% 62.0% Sherman 37.6% 62.4% Smyrna 42.5% 57.5% Springfield 30.3% 69.7% Stacyville 32.2% 67.8% Webster Plantation 46.9% 53.1% Westfield 46.5% 53.5% Weston 44.9% 55.1% Winn 32.3% 67.7% Senate District 14: Shenna Bellows (D) Yes 48.0% No 52.0% Chelsea 46.9% 53.1% Farmingdale 50.4% 49.6% Gardiner 50.7% 49.3% Hallowell 60.3% 39.7% Manchester 44.0% 56.0% Monmouth 45.6% 54.4% Pittston 45.3% 54.7% Randolph 49.7% 50.3% Readfield 49.2% 50.8% West Gardiner 43.4% 56.6% Winthrop 45.8% 54.2% Senate District 25: Catherine Breen (D) Yes 42.4% No 57.6% Chebeague Island 58.1% 41.9% Cumberland 38.7% 61.3% Page 3 of 9

5 Falmouth 37.6% 62.4% Gray 45.7% 54.3% Long Island 50.0% 50.0% Yarmouth 42.4% 57.6% Westbrook (part) 56.4% 43.6% Senate District 26: William Diamond (D) Yes 45.8% No 54.2% Baldwin 41.0% 59.0% Casco 47.5% 52.5% Frye Island 42.3% 57.7% Raymond 44.0% 56.0% Standish 46.0% 54.0% Windham 46.3% 53.7% House Results House District 30: Kimberly Monaghan (D) Yes 45.2% No 54.8% Cape Elizabeth 45.2% 54.8% House District 44: Teresa Pierce (D) Yes 38% No 62% Falmouth 38.0% 62.0% Page 4 of 9

6 House District 45: Dale Denno (D) Yes 39.9% No 61.1% Cumberland 39.1% 60.9% Gray (part) 46.2% 53.8% House District 47: Janice Cooper (D) Yes 44.2% No 55.8% Chebeague Island 59.9% 40.1% Long Island 51.5% 48.5% Yarmouth 43.1% 56.9% House District 48: Sara Gideon (D) Yes 48.0% No 52.0% Freeport 48.2% 51.8% Pownal (part) 44.0% 56.0% Page 5 of 9

7 House District 55: Seth Berry (D) Yes 48.1% No 51.9% Bowdoin 43.3% 56.7% Bowdoinham 49.5% 50.5% Richmond (part) 51.1% 48.9% Perkins Island Township 61.5% 38.5% House District 74: Christina Riley (D) Yes 49.6% No 50.4% Jay 50.1% 49.9% Livermore (part) 41.7% 58.3% Livermore Falls 52.6% 47.4% House District 78: Catherine Nadeau (D) Yes 47.3% No 52.7% Benton (part) 45.0% 55.0% Winslow 47.5% 52.5% Page 6 of 9

8 House District 81: Craig Hickman (D) Yes 47.7% No 52.3% Monmouth (part) 46.1% 53.9% Readfield 49.7% 50.3% Winthrop 46.9% 53.1% House District 82: Kent Ackley (C) Yes 45.0% No 55.0% Litchfield 46.5% 53.5% Monmouth (part) 46.1% 53.9% Wales 38.6% 61.4% House District 84: Charlotte Warren (D) Yes 49.4 No 50.6% Hallowell 61.7% 38.3% Manchester 44.7% 55.3% West Gardiner 43.8% 56.2% Page 7 of 9

9 House District 121: Robert Duchesne (D) Yes 42.4% No 57.6% Alton 40.9% 59.1% Corinth 36.4% 63.6% Hudson 36.0% 64.0% Milford 50.7% 49.3% Argyle Township 43.5% 56.5% House District 132: Louis Luchini (D) Yes 46.0% No 54.0% Ellsworth 46.3% 53.7% Trenton 44.5% 55.5% House District 134: Walter Kumiega III (D) Yes 49.6% No 50.4% Cranberry Isles 49.3% 50.7% Deer Isle 46.0% 54.0% Frenchboro 32.3% 67.7% Isle au Haut 74.2% 25.8% North Haven 59.5% 40.5% Southwest Harbor 50.4% 49.6% Stonington 44.7% 55.3% Swan's Island 38.5% 61.5% Tremont 50.9% 49.1% Page 8 of 9

10 Vinalhaven 54.8% 45.2% House District 138: Robert Alley, Sr. (D) Yes 41.4% No 58.6% Addison 39.1% 60.9% Beals 40.3% 59.7% Cherryfield 45.7% 54.3% Columbia 32.9% 67.1% Columbia Falls 38.8% 61.2% Harrington 37.7% 62.3% Jonesboro 47.3% 52.7% Jonesport 37.1% 62.9% Marshfield 38.3% 61.7% Milbridge 48.6% 51.4% Whitneyville 45.2% 54.8% Centerville Township 33.3% 66.7% House District 143: Stephen Stanley (D) Yes 46.8% No 53.2% East Millinocket 45.9% 54.1% Medway 35.3% 64.7% Millinocket 49.2% 50.8% Patten 39.4% 60.6% North Penobscot 74.4% 25.6% Page 9 of 9